Lose-Lose: There’s No Way for the Twins to Gain Value in a Carlos Correa Trade

[ashbury]

31 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

In my opinion, this discussion doesn't have much legs to it without one key question answered? No way we could possibly know but the question is this: 

How much money would the Twins be required to eat for just ONE TEAM to be interested in his contract? 

He has 4 years left for a guaranteed total of 133 Million left to be paid out. Followed by 4 years of vesting options for a potential of 8 years.  

If he reaches 575 Plate Appearances in 2028. It would trigger a vesting option of 25 million as a 34 year old. 

If he reaches 550 PA's in 2029. It would trigger a vesting option of 20 million as a 35 year old. 

If he reaches 525 PA's in 2030. It would trigger a vesting option of 15 million as a 36 year old. 

If he reaches 502 PA's in 2031. It would trigger a vesting option of 10 million as a 37 year old. 

If Correa doesn't reach those triggers he then becomes a club option year by year for the remaining years. 

The vesting options are decent protection for the Twins. Assuming of course that the mere reaching of 575 PA's means productive player worth bringing back the following season. If fails to reach those benchmarks... he is then a club option. 

So just focusing on the 4 years remaining before the vesting options. 37.3 million, 32.8 million, 31.8 million and 31.3 million. 

When he signed with the Twins. He signed for the biggest contract he could get. The Giants and Mets did offer more initially but they pulled it back leaving the Twins with the best contract offer.

That alone tells you that the Twins most likely paid more than others were willing to pay.

That alone tells you that the Twins will have to eat some money to move his contract to get where others are willing to pay. 

UNLESS... he has somehow increased his value in the two years since signing the contract. 

The first year of the deal - 580 AB's and a .711 OPS

The 2nd year of the deal - A fantastic .905 OPS but only 367 PA's due to injury. 

I love Correa... I'm glad he's a Twin and playing for my team. My comments are not slams on Correa. It's an important to ask this question. Do the first two years of his contract indicate a value increase so teams who wouldn't pay more two years ago are now all of sudden willing to pay it? 

Two years less on the contract will increase the value some but two years older should also decrease the value.

So... the question remains. How much money would the Twins be required to eat to make his contract palatable to just one team... let alone multiple teams? 

 

The worth of any long term contract is tied to the perceived risk.  Two years of solid health and high production on the field would have greatly mitigated that risk.  The combination didn't happen, so I really don't see a change.  No one is going to give the Twins any prospects or valuable veterans to obtain a player on a contract they could have freely offered themselves two years ago.  Instead 29 other GMs are nodding and saying to themselves, this is about what I expected, when I said no, two years ago.

[Riverbrian]

1 minute ago, ashbury said:

The worth of any long term contract is tied to the perceived risk.  Two years of solid health and high production on the field would have greatly mitigated that risk.  The combination didn't happen, so I really don't see a change.  No one is going to give the Twins any prospects or valuable veterans to obtain a player on a contract they could have freely offered themselves two years ago.

I wish I had your skills.  😉

You were able to say what I was saying perfectly in just one paragraph. 

For the reasons I listed and the reasons you listed more concisely.

A Correa trade would return very little player value. It would only provide a dump of salary that would require either X amount of money or X amount of additional players/prospects in return to right size the remaining contract.

The money left could in theory be spent elsewhere in order to improve the club but before you can spend the money, you have to find out what it would cost... just to make one team interested so you can get your hands on the remaining cash just to spend it on improvement elsewhere (including a SS).

By the time that happens, where could it be spent? Who will be left to spend it on?     

Not to mention the No Trade Clause that Boras and Correa could utilize to further limit trade options in the off chance you actually could find a trade partner willing to take on the bulk of the risk inherent in the contract. 

Myself, if a trade happens, I'll be surprised. Stranger things have happened. Until this stranger thing happens... I'm just going to enjoy watching C4 play SS for us.  

 

[Linus]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

In my opinion, this discussion doesn't have much legs to it without one key question answered? No way we could possibly know but the question is this: 

How much money would the Twins be required to eat for just ONE TEAM to be interested in his contract? 

He has 4 years left for a guaranteed total of 133 Million left to be paid out. Followed by 4 years of vesting options for a potential of 8 years.  

If he reaches 575 Plate Appearances in 2028. It would trigger a vesting option of 25 million as a 34 year old. 

If he reaches 550 PA's in 2029. It would trigger a vesting option of 20 million as a 35 year old. 

If he reaches 525 PA's in 2030. It would trigger a vesting option of 15 million as a 36 year old. 

If he reaches 502 PA's in 2031. It would trigger a vesting option of 10 million as a 37 year old. 

If Correa doesn't reach those triggers he then becomes a club option year by year for the remaining years. 

The vesting options are decent protection for the Twins. Assuming of course that the mere reaching of 575 PA's means productive player worth bringing back the following season. 

So just focusing on the 4 years remaining before the vesting options. 37.3 million, 32.8 million, 31.8 million and 31.3 million. 

When he signed with the Twins. He signed for the biggest contract he could get. The Giants and Mets did offer more initially but they pulled it back leaving the Twins with the best contract offer.

That alone tells you that the Twins most likely paid more than others were willing to pay.

That alone tells you that the Twins will have to eat some money to move his contract to get where others are willing to pay. 

UNLESS... he has somehow increased his value in the two years since signing the contract. 

The first year of the deal - 580 AB's and a .711 OPS

The 2nd year of the deal - A fantastic .905 OPS but only 367 PA's due to injury. 

I love Correa... I'm glad he's a Twin and playing for my team. My comments are not slams on Correa. It's important to ask this question. Do the first two years of his contract indicate a value increase so teams who wouldn't pay more two years ago are now all of sudden willing to pay it? 

Two years less on the contract will increase the value some but two years older should also decrease the value.

So... the question remains. How much money would the Twins be required to eat to make his contract palatable to just one team... let alone multiple teams? 

 

I actually think that there would be some teams that would take on Correas contract. They would not give up anything else however so it would be a pure salary dump. At that point we would have to acquire another SS for half the money and watch the other get pocketed - no thanks. Oh and then there is the inconvenient fact that he is our best player…..and that we don’t have anyone to take his place. To throw a little snark into it I don’t understand the posters that worry about saving the Pohlads money. 

[Riverbrian]

20 minutes ago, Linus said:

I actually think that there would be some teams that would take on Correas contract. They would not give up anything else however so it would be a pure salary dump. At that point we would have to acquire another SS for half the money and watch the other get pocketed - no thanks. Oh and then there is the inconvenient fact that he is our best player…..and that we don’t have anyone to take his place. To throw a little snark into it I don’t understand the posters that worry about saving the Pohlads money. 

Agreed... Although... I'm not sure that they would simply take on his contract. The nature of free agency itself puts himself out of everyone's price range. A team with a newly developed gaping hole at SS would be the only candidates in my mind to take on the entire contract.

And that is kind of funny... just like you mentioned. The most obvious team with a gaping hole at SS... would be the Twins if they traded Correa. 

[Linus]

15 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Agreed... Although... I'm not sure that they would simply take on his contract. The nature of free agency itself puts himself out of everyone's price range. A team with a newly developed gaping hole at SS would be the only candidates in my mind to take on the entire contract.

And that is kind of funny... just like you mentioned. The most obvious team with a gaping hole at SS... would be the Twins if they traded Correa. 

Good point. Not every team has the financial means to take on the contract and how many of them need a SS?  Good thought exercise in a boring off season. Thankfully it ain’t happening. 

[nicksaviking]

Even if Correa is overpaid and his salary doesn't fit with the Twins current model, I just don't understand what people want to use the savings for. I don't want three 8-12M free agents, those types of players just don't tend to be very good anymore. I'd rather have Correa and start Miranda and Larnach/Rodriguez instead of signing dusty old Nick Ahmed, Paul Goldschmidt and Max Kepler.

[old nurse]

On 12/23/2024 at 6:21 PM, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

You never get true value when you trade a star player.  You keep him and hope he stays healthy and has more like the first half of 2024.

Not never, the scouts have to be better at assessing talent than the other team. Then the GM has to play the other team’s win now mode 

[old nurse]

On 12/23/2024 at 11:32 AM, NYCTK said:

 

Ever since they failed to return value for the departing Thome and Ramirez they've traded away the likes of:

CC Sabathia 

Fransisco Lindor 

Cliff Lee 

Roberto Alomar 

Bartolo Colon

Corey Kluber

Victor Martinez

Trevor Bauer 

Carlos Carrasco 

Jhonny Peralta 

And just this week Josh Naylor

 

Unless they're able to secure to a team friendly deal, everyone in Cleveland is available at all times essentially. 

 

Edit: I misunderstood what you're saying. But I think Cleveland is exceptional at this actually. So I disagree but for different reasons. 

CC Sabithia netted them Brantly

Lindor netted them Gimenez,

Cliff Lee netted them Carasco

Alomar never had a decent season after being traded

Colon netted them Brandon Phillips, Cliff Lee and Grady Sizemore

I gave up oozing at the rest. I don’t think Cleveland lost any trade for a player who would soon be a free agent 

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, old nurse said:

Not never, the scouts have to be better at assessing talent than the other team. Then the GM has to play the other team’s win now mode 

But the team getting the star player gets the better end of the deal most of the time. 

And it makes sense, no matter how good your scouts are, they don't know the prospects half as good as the team that currently holds their rights.

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, old nurse said:

CC Sabithia netted them Brantly

Lindor netted them Gimenez,

Cliff Lee netted them Carasco

Alomar never had a decent season after being traded

Colon netted them Brandon Phillips, Cliff Lee and Grady Sizemore

I gave up oozing at the rest. I don’t think Cleveland lost any trade for a player who would soon be a free agent 

Still, Cleveland didn't get the better player in return in most of those trades. And as you said, most of those trades involved star players who had one or two years left on their deals; those moves were getting something before they lost those players for nothing. This is not the same situation, Correa still has many years of control left.

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

But the team getting the star player gets the better end of the deal most of the time. 

And it makes sense, no matter how good your scouts are, they don't know the prospects half as good as the team that currently holds their rights.

Not never is not all of the time. The better en d of a deal. Lose a player in free agency and get a comp pick or trade and get something the team really likes. There is more factors than just player x was better than player Y. The the traded away player was a better player than what they got only works for fantasy baseball teams. There are more moving parts than that 

In regards to other teams figuring out their players better than the trading for team, Joe Ryan is an example, Cano would be another.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

Not never is not all of the time. The better en d of a deal. Lose a player in free agency and get a comp pick or trade and get something the team really likes. There is more factors than just player x was better than player Y. The the traded away player was a better player than what they got only works for fantasy baseball teams. There are more moving parts than that 

In regards to other teams figuring out their players better than the trading for team, Joe Ryan is an example, Cano would be another.

But the Twins have no need to beat the odds, Correa isn't leaving any time soon. And it's not like they can use his savings to add additional good players. The players they can add in the 8-12M price range don't tend to be any better than the options they have in house.

[old nurse]

39 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

But the Twins have no need to beat the odds, Correa isn't leaving any time soon. And it's not like they can use his savings to add additional good players. The players they can add in the 8-12M price range don't tend to be any better than the options they have in house.

I have said it is difficult to replace the 7-8 best shortstop. There is a perfectly reasonable way to clear money in Correas contract to sign players that won’t cost the Pohlads a dime if they are going to sell the team. 

[twinstalker]

Been a while since I've seen something other than non-sensical click-bait topics (my suggestion would be to have writers write about relevant, sensible topics and leave the craziness to readers' forums, see Canis Hoopus), but this has been a relevant topic, and Cody takes a sensible, if not fully flushed out, approach to it.

One thing he glosses over is the the prospect return for Correa's contract, suggesting it will be a big return.  I doubt anyone will give anything really good for Correa and his $33 million a year when SF and the NYM have been proven right after withdrawing their offers to him.  I'm guessing the first reaction to that statement is that they haven't been proven right at all (!), but every other team in MLB has watched Correa be substantially injured in the very first two years of his contract.  And, frankly, the injury is very possibly directly connected to his ankle issue.  No one is going to give a quality prospect return for an injured player with a huge contract.

So the lack of return is the real reason to not trade Correa for prospects, because the Twins have a shortstop, 2B, 3B already on the 25, and they have Eeles and Keaschall soon to help (I'm leaving Julien out of this, he might be toast).  They should trade Correa for a great prospect if they can, but they can't, I'm sure.  Not to mention his no-trade control that could come into play.