Johan Santana’s 2004 Dominance: Was He Robbed of the AL MVP?

[Cody Christie]

Johan Santana dominated during the 2004 season on the way to his first Cy Young. Here’s why he should have been in the AL MVP discussion.

Image courtesy of Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

Johan Santana's 2004 campaign was the best season of his career and one of the most dominant performances by a pitcher in modern MLB history. The Minnesota Twins’ lefty dazzled with a combination of pinpoint control and a devastating changeup, earning his first Cy Young Award in a landslide. However, when the MVP voting results were announced, Santana finished sixth despite being statistically superior to many position players who placed ahead of him. Let’s revisit that season and the MVP debate that still lingers.

Santana’s Case for AL MVP  
Santana’s numbers in 2004 jump off the page. Over 34 starts, he posted a 20-6 record with an AL-best 2.61 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. He struck out 265 batters in 228 innings, leading the league in strikeouts and K/9 (10.5). His second-half performance was nothing short of legendary as he went 13-0 with a 1.21 ERA in 15 starts, holding opponents to a .155 batting average. There is no question that Santana put the Twins on his back to carry them to the playoffs. 

The advanced metrics underscore Santana’s dominance. His 8.8 WAR was the highest among AL pitchers and topped all but one position player in the league. He led the league in ERA+, FIP, WHIP, H/9, and ERA. Despite this, Santana’s sixth-place MVP finish highlighted how voters often overlook pitchers for the award.

 

The 2004 AL MVP Race

Vladimir Guerrero won the AL MVP, putting together a tremendous season for the Anaheim Angels. Guerrero slashed .337/.391/.598 (.989) with 39 home runs and 126 RBIs. He was the spark plug for a playoff-bound team, leading the league in runs scored (124). However, Guerrero’s WAR (5.6) was far lower than Santana’s, suggesting his overall value didn’t match the same level of excellence.  

Manny Ramirez, who finished third, led the AL in OPS (1.009) and home runs (43), cementing his place as one of baseball’s most feared hitters. Gary Sheffield (2nd), David Ortiz (4th), and also received more votes than Santana, despite none surpassing 4.3 WAR. Ichiro Suzuki, who led the league in WAR (9.2), had one of the greatest single-season offensive performances ever, breaking George Sisler’s hits record with 262. Yet, he finished behind Santana in MVP voting, a reflection of the voters’ biases toward sluggers and team success.  

Why Santana Deserved More  
Pitchers winning MVP is an uphill battle. Historically, only the most transcendent pitching performances, such as Bob Gibson in 1968, Roger Clemens in 1986, or Justin Verlander in 2011, have convinced voters that a hurler was the league’s most valuable player. Santana’s 2004 season deserved to be in that conversation.  

Unlike everyday players, pitchers only influence a fraction of their team’s games. But Santana’s influence transcended his starts. His consistency at the top of the rotation set the tone for a Twins team that won the AL Central with a 92-70 record. His dominance in September, when the Twins secured the division, was invaluable. For all his offensive prowess, Guerrero didn’t single-handedly carry the Angels as Santana did the Twins.

WAR provides a compelling argument, as Santana outpaced every MVP contender except Ichiro. His second-half performance, where he essentially made opposing hitters irrelevant, was unmatched in its impact on team success.

 

Santana’s 2004 season earned him his first Cy Young Award and cemented his place among the game’s elite. Still, his sixth-place MVP finish remains a reminder of how difficult it is for pitchers to gain proper recognition in MVP voting. In hindsight, Santana’s brilliance was the definition of value, and his season stands as one of the best arguments for why pitchers should be included in MVP discussions.  

Looking back, Santana’s name deserved to be mentioned alongside Guerrero’s, Ramirez’s, and Ichiro’s in the MVP debate. While he didn’t take home the hardware, Santana’s 2004 will forever remain a season for the ages and one that Twins fans will cherish as one of the most dominant pitching performances ever seen.  

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What do you think? Did Johan Santana deserve the 2004 MVP? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[Parfigliano]

Voters are conditioned into thinking CY is the starting pitchers MVP award.  Relief pitchers have their award whatever corporate moniker it has now.  League MVP is for the hitters. 

Good luck changing that.

[Schmoeman5]

WAR. How can Mookie Betts have a WAR of 8.3 in 2023 with hitting numbers very similar to Guerreros 2004 which garnered a 5.6? Or how can a pitcher accumulate an almost 9 WAR by appearing in. 25% of the games played? I don't care how it's measured. Ichiro was a great defender. Guerrero had a good arm too but I'm sure 2004 Vlad wasn't as good.  Suzuki is the one who should have been MVP. 

[DJL44]

Santana should have been AL MVP in 2004 AND 2006.

The best players in baseball were pretty heavily in the NL in 2004 (Bonds, Pujols, Beltre, Rolen, Edmonds, Helton, Randy Johnson, JD Drew). Ichiro was the best position player in the AL followed by Miguel Tejada and Alex Rodriguez.

2006 was a closer call but I still think Santana was more valuable than Joe Mauer. They passed over two better choices on the Twins to give that MVP to Morneau.

[sweetmusicviola16]

Santana should have been MVP in '04. No argument here. Second thing that sticks out is the bias towards HR's over the last 25 years. That comes out in stats. Ichiro is one of the greatest hitters of all time. OPS+ for his career is 107. Strikeout machine Joey Gallo is 106 for his. Who would I want on my team? Suzuki. Hands down. What game would I rather see? Ichiro slapping a single or a double? Or Gallo K'ing, getting a walk or hamming a solo HR? Again easy choice. 

[Rigby]

Larger crime was his 3rd place finish in the 2005 CYA. 

[bean5302]

Quote

... Ichiro Suzuki, who led the league in WAR (9.2)...

...yet, he finished behind Santana in MVP voting, a reflection of the voters’ biases toward sluggers and team success... 
 

Not sure this article can make the case Santana was robbed or that it didn't actually make the case that Ichiro was robbed.

[Doctor Gast]

3 hours ago, Rigby said:

Larger crime was his 3rd place finish in the 2005 CYA. 

I'm not an expert on WAR. So I can't really comment of him winning the MVP but if Gibson, Clemens & Verlander had done it. Why not Santana? He was the best during his time. But I agree with Rigby that he was robbed. & experts should have known he was robbed & give him the acclaim that he deserves.

[DJL44]

4 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Santana should have been MVP in '04. No argument here. Second thing that sticks out is the bias towards HR's over the last 25 years. That comes out in stats. Ichiro is one of the greatest hitters of all time. OPS+ for his career is 107. Strikeout machine Joey Gallo is 106 for his. Who would I want on my team? Suzuki. Hands down. What game would I rather see? Ichiro slapping a single or a double? Or Gallo K'ing, getting a walk or hamming a solo HR? Again easy choice. 

Ichiro's career OPS+ is 107 because he got a late start in MLB (age 27) and hung around about 6 years past his prime (ages 37-44). It's 10 years of awesome (55 WAR) followed by 6 years of just good enough to get playing time (5 WAR).

Joey Gallo's positive contribution was ages 23-27. Ichiro was starring in Japan before age 27. Give Gallo 14 more seasons in the big leagues to match Ichiro's career and we'll see what his career statline looks like. I'll take Gallo's age 23-27 performance over Ichiro's age 40-44 but otherwise it's clearly Ichiro.

[twinstalker]

Whose WAR?  Were all WARs like this (usually they aren't)?

 

[twinstalker]

9 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

WAR. How can Mookie Betts have a WAR of 8.3 in 2023 with hitting numbers very similar to Guerreros 2004 which garnered a 5.6? Or how can a pitcher accumulate an almost 9 WAR by appearing in. 25% of the games played? I don't care how it's measured. Ichiro was a great defender. Guerrero had a good arm too but I'm sure 2004 Vlad wasn't as good. Suzuki is the one who should have been MVP. 

Wow, you do realize WAR is relative to league hitting/pitching?  2004 was still the steroid era, juiced ball era, etc.  Overall numbers were huge.  That's why Santana was so great and why Betts is the same with "worse" numbers.