How Joe Ryan's Fastball Evolution Can Define His 2025 Season

[Cody Christie]

Joe Ryan’s most significant flaw in the minors was his reliance on his fastball. Has he flipped the script, to the point where he should use his fastball more regularly at the big-league level?

Image courtesy of © John Froschauer-USA TODAY Sports

Joe Ryan’s ascension to big-league success revolved around his fastball. It’s a pitch that baffled hitters in the minors, even as scouts questioned whether his heater-heavy approach could translate to the majors at a non-overpowering velocity. As he prepares for his fourth full season in the big leagues, Ryan faces a unique challenge: finding the right balance between increased velocity and pitch usage to maximize his effectiveness.

The Fastball: A Foundation of Success
When Ryan debuted with the Twins in 2021, his fastball averaged around 91-92 mph. Despite its modest velocity, the pitch played up thanks to Ryan’s exceptional command and the deceptive release angle generated by his unorthodox arm slot. In the minors, Ryan threw his fastball over 70% of the time, and scouts raised questions about how that mix would survive the escalating difficulty involved in going from even the high minors to facing big-leaguers.

Their doubts seemed valid early on, as hitters posted a .461 xSLG during his debut season when facing his fastball, with a 20.3 Whiff%. In his first two seasons (2021-22), he threw his fastball over 60% of the time, and it didn’t generate as many swings and misses as in the minor leagues. He was going to need to adjust his approach to find more success. 

A Velocity Boost and Reduced Reliance  
Over the past three seasons, Ryan has added velocity to his fastball, which now sits around 94-95 mph and occasionally touches the upper 90s. The increased speed has made the pitch more formidable, but Ryan has paradoxically leaned on it less. In 2024, he threw his fastball just 48.5% of the time, a significant reduction compared to his minor-league days. He posted career-best totals in Put Away % (23.4), xBA (.191), and xSLG (.354) when throwing his four-seamer. 

The adjustment reflects Ryan’s effort to develop a more diverse arsenal, which now includes an improved slider and a sweeper he introduced in 2023. Last season, his sweeper had a 33.7 Whiff% and a .164 xBA, the best total of any of his pitches. However, Ryan might have unintentionally neutralized one of his greatest strengths by relying less on his signature pitch.  

The Path Forward: Using the Fastball More  
Ryan’s increased velocity raises the question: should he use his fastball more often? The data suggests he should. Even in 2024, his fastball generated a 27.5 Whiff% and a 23.4 Put Away%. That Put Away % was as high as his sweeper, despite the sweeper having a higher Whiff%. It’s possible that reintroducing a higher fastball usage rate could help him keep hitters off-balance, especially early in counts when they might be sitting on his secondary pitches.  

Additionally, Ryan’s fastball uniquely plays well in the upper part of the strike zone, where its “rising” effect can induce swings and misses. Big-league hitters can square up a straight fastball, but his is unique enough that it can still be a weapon. Incorporating more high fastballs into his game plan might also help him avoid the middle of the plate, where home runs have been an issue.

For example, his splitter was used 22.2% of the time last season, but he allowed six home runs with that pitch in 122 plate appearances. In his current mode, Ryan sometimes doubles up with the splitter, or throws that pitch on the heels of his sweeper or slider. As you'd expect based on the action of the pitches in question, though, the splitter is most effective when it's playing off the fastball. Here are the splits for the pitch's performance last season based on the pitch type of the previous offering in the at-bat.

Previous Pitch Type	Whiff %	Exit Vel.	GB %	HR %	wOBA
Fastballs	26.1	89.0	64.9	3.5	.206
Sweepers/Sliders	26.5	92.8	40.0	5.6	.466
Splitter	21.9	87.2	62.1	7.9	.251

It sounds hopelessly old-fashioned, but there might still be value in establishing the fastball and forcing hitters to hunt it, in order to get the most out of non-fastballs.

A Balancing Act
The challenge for Ryan heading into 2025 will be striking the right balance. While the development of his secondary pitches has been crucial to his growth as a pitcher, the fastball remains the backbone of his repertoire. If he can find a way to increase its usage without becoming overly reliant on it, Ryan could take another step toward being a true top-of-the-rotation arm.  

Rocco Baldelli and the Twins' coaching staff will undoubtedly help Ryan fine-tune his pitch mix. With the team looking to rebound from a disappointing 2024 season, Ryan’s ability to harness his improved fastball while maintaining a diverse arsenal could be a critical factor in their success. As he continues to evolve, leaning back into that strength while embracing his newfound tools can be the key to unlocking his full potential.  

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Should Ryan use his fastball more regularly? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[tony&rodney]

Ryan has such a good feel for pitching and also seems like he is tuned into his mechanics and stuff in most of his outings. He likely tailors his pitches to the opponent and how his pitches are working on any given day. While that may be what all pitchers are attempting to do, Ryan has a better handle on his game than many pitchers. He is still improving at his craft. While I like and appreciate the idea of the post, it may be that Ryan's pitch usage just reflects how he stays a step ahead of the hitters. Thus the percentage of fastballs and his other pitches changes from month to month and year to year based on how Ryan perceives the challenge of getting through the at bats. Ryan just needs to stay healthy to be good.

[bean5302]

Joe Ryan's velo didn't change much the first 3 seasons. In 2021, you're dealing with a SSS. Looking at his average heater, it peaked at over 92mph for one of his starts. Ryan has typically started the season out of the gate with a little more heat, losing a tick as the season wears on. He did add velo last year, and his fastball did improve in expected outcomes marginally from 2023's xwOBA .274 to 2024's xwOBA .266. He also suffered his first significant shoulder/arm strain, though I have no idea if it was related to throwing harder.

That said, Ryan has settled into that 50% fastball category for a good reason, and that's because each quality pitch makes other pitches in the repertoire better. They work as a team. Joe Ryan was a back end rotation guy with 3 viable pitches. He's worked to adjust his options (like many other MLB pitchers), and now that Ryan has more viable options, he doesn't have to rely purely on throwing the most physically demanding pitch.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Given how well Joe Ryan was pitching last year before he got injured, I'm not sure much change is in order.  Ryan seems well in touch with his pitching and seems comfortable tweaking it on his own.  It's true, he might need a few more fastballs against some batters, but then again, he might need less against others.  He's a really smart guy (certainly smarter about pitching than me) and I will let him figure that out.  His job is to stay healthy and keep pitching.  He is a massive upgrade from anybody who would take his place in the rotation if he gets hurt. 

[Otaknam]

No readers knows if Ryan should use his fastball more. Only his coaches have knowledgeable input on that topic. But we do know that having three solid pitches that he cans throw for strikes, along with at minimum a 95+ fastball, is a prescription for success as a starter.  They sure need him to stay healthy, as the team started to flounder when he was injured.

[LambchoP]

Just do what he did last year and he'll be just fine. As long as he's fully healed from last years injury and as long as we can keep him healthy long term, I think there might even be a bit more improvement we could see from him this year. His age, his instincts and his bulldog approach is exactly what you want in a TOR pitcher and I think he has ace like potential. I really like our top 3 in Lopez, Ryan and Ober. If SWR can repeat what he did last year and avoid a sophomore slump, we should be in a good place. I'd still like to see a veteran starter signed to be a number 5 SP, allowing Festa to start the year in AAA and be the first man up. I don't see any new starters signing though, and because Paddack is all but gone, I expect Festa to be in the rotation to start the season.

[FargoFanMan]

21 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Ryan has such a good feel for pitching and also seems like he is tuned into his mechanics and stuff in most of his outings. He likely tailors his pitches to the opponent and how his pitches are working on any given day. While that may be what all pitchers are attempting to do, Ryan has a better handle on his game than many pitchers. He is still improving at his craft. While I like and appreciate the idea of the post, it may be that Ryan's pitch usage just reflects how he stays a step ahead of the hitters. Thus the percentage of fastballs and his other pitches changes from month to month and year to year based on how Ryan perceives the challenge of getting through the at bats. Ryan just needs to stay healthy to be good.

Exactly! He’s a pitcher and came up having to based on lack of secondary stuff. Now he’s got the stuff and uses it to his advantage. If he can make it through the season I believe he’s the top guy on this staff by next October. Maybe his usage goes up. Maybe it goes down. Depends on what is working in game. What’s working against certain lineups or hitters. How the league adjusts to him and how he counters the league. Dude is smart and pitching savvy.

[David Maro]

Like a lot of the team's players he needs to stay healthy. The team can't have core players missing 50 or more games.When you have a limited payroll and have to reach down to AA to bring a player up its a problem. 

The last two seasons Ryan has missed time with injuries. This last season being a arm that hopefully doesn't happen again this year. 

[JD-TWINS]

No real positive with increasing fastball usage. He’s already at a % that can allow or induce the opponent to just sit on his fastball. Very few pitchers can get by with just stuff……deception, pitch mix, and surprise are very important. If Ryan or anyone starts throwing nearly 60% of one pitch it’s going to be a problem…….at least for a starter.