It's Baseball - No Guarantees

[Riverbrian]

When it comes to the trade deadline. I say buyers buy and sellers sell... anything else is standing still. I say it all the time and I will continue to say it in the future because I believe it. Buying at the deadline, hopefully makes you stronger for the playoffs but the main reason you do it, is to supply for the stretch run in order to make the playoffs. You never know what you will need in August and September but you don't want to get get caught short at such a critical time. 

With that said... There are no guarantees in the sport of baseball. Buying doesn't guarantee success and selling doesn't guarantee tanking. 

Case in Point - Since August 1. After selling at the trade deadline. The Tigers are 23-14. Just one game behind the Dodgers and D-Back at 24-13 who are tied for best record in MLB since August 1. The Dodgers bought and D-Backs bought - The Tigers Sold.

We can also add the Cubs at 23-13 to this mix if we can figure out how to categorize their trade deadline behavior. Which adds another dynamic to this discussion by including the team that did a little bit of both. 

I have no conclusions but would like to read some thoughts. 

 

[jaimedude]

Twins had known injury issues in the bullpen and rotation at the trade deadline. The fact the only move they could make was the Richard's trade for a C level prospect was telling. If ownership had allowed the front office to do more I think they would have. I don't know what the right answer was, but I know a lot of us fans were disappointed in the lack of moves at the deadline, at least rental additions. I for one was really hoping a left handed reliever would be added because Okert was showing sides of fading, and Thielbar has had a tough year compared to his past inputs and previous years. Could not predict snowball of injury's but with out history of them would have like to see more contingency additions to help tge major league club. 

[IndianaTwin]

In discussions like these, I always start from the point of acknowledging that we don't have all the information. We have no idea what offers the FO did or didn't have and what conversations they didn't have.

Check that -- we do know one, since they made one trade. But speculation on other deals, or the lack thereof, is just that -- speculation. Depending on what the negotiations and offers were, I have no problem that they didn't make more moves. Conversely, maybe they got offers I think they should have taken. But in either case, it's only speculation on my part. 

In general, however, if you count transactions over the years, the Twins have been above-average in their activity level at the trade deadline. With that in mind, I find it hard to believe that the Twins sat on their hands and didn't try anything, even if they were working with the parameters of a limited budget, which seems to be the case.

[Schmoeman5]

There are some guarantees though. No team will go through a season without slumps or injuries. This team has depth at certain positions and a lot of question marks at others. Especially key position. SS, CF and SP. @ chpettit19 and others talked about such things. SP was a real concern. Lopez, Ober, and Ryan were going to carry the load. SWR Varland and Paddack all had questions. How long was Paddack going to be effective and for how long? Since this was going to be his 1st whole season since his TJ surgery. Varland had homer trouble and early on was demoted. SWR was an unproven rookie. He has done well but now in late Aug and Sept his effectiveness has fallen off sharply. Ryan's injury and Paddack has forced 2 unproven rookies to step in. So now going down the stretch, the Twins have only 2 reliable starters. DeSclafani was a potential candidate but went out before the season started. If the Twins had gotten someone serviceable, their chances down the stretch would be vastly improved. There was opportunity. No guarantee that an addition would have helped. But at least it would have been an effort.

[Riverbrian]

The Twins trade deadline was disappointing. 

But... then there is the case of the Tigers. 

The Twins didn't do anything. The Tigers in regards to 2024 playoff chances was worse than not doing anything. 

They Sold themselves into contention. The Vets are gone. 

[Craig Arko]

This is kinda true for everything, isn’t it? I don’t think any of our birth certificates came with an extended warranty. 

[Unwinder]

I think the expanded playoffs have completely destabilized the entire trade deadline economy and I think we need to see a few more seasons of it before we really know what to expect. This year, there were very few sellers, and the teams that sold were able to get huge overpays. Is that how it's always going to be now? Or will fringe playoff hopefuls start to see the overpays that sellers are getting and decide to sell? If future deadlines continue to play out like this year's, maybe standing pat becomes normal for teams near the middle of the pack like the Twins.

[Riverbrian]

12 minutes ago, Unwinder said:

I think the expanded playoffs have completely destabilized the entire trade deadline economy and I think we need to see a few more seasons of it before we really know what to expect. This year, there were very few sellers, and the teams that sold were able to get huge overpays. Is that how it's always going to be now? Or will fringe playoff hopefuls start to see the overpays that sellers are getting and decide to sell? If future deadlines continue to play out like this year's, maybe standing pat becomes normal for teams near the middle of the pack like the Twins.

Good post.

Everything has a cost. Prospects are currency. If the prospect price is driven up. You are still spending currency. 

If the Tigers can sell vets and acquire additional prospects at a driven up price and have the best record in baseball after the doing that? What does that say? 

[Brandon]

The season was supposed to start out as 

Lopez, Ober, Ryan , Paddack, Desclafini, with Varland as the 6th starter

Desclafini got hurt and Varland failed.  That’s two starters down and the Twins got a lucky break as Woods -Richardson came out of knowwhere and had a good rookie season.  The Twins needed another starter with Paddack getting injured and Festa came up and did well after his first two starts.  With Ryan getting hurt Mathews came up and had a few good starts and several clunkers.  
 

The Twins did try to acquire Kikuchi and Houston overpaid more than we should for him.  But the rotation was not the problem.  The pen was short a few relievers and the offense collapsed.  We need a new hitting coach!.  But at the deadline we didn’t know the offense was going to crash.  We did know we needed a one arm and we should have pushed more for one or two.  But with the budget and cost in trade why?