Anatomy of an Implosion: Understanding Jorge Alcalá’s Collapse in Twins Loss

[joefish]

Would pitchers do worse if they rolled a die to determine which pitch to throw? There would be no tendencies to project. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

2 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

I wasn't able to watch/listen, but from the sounds of things, giving up five runs in nine innings is about what they might have expected with the overall pitching performance from the team. It's just unfortunate (and much more noticeable) when it happens in the way it did. 

I am not a big believer in the theory some losses are better/worse than others, but situationally, this loss was tough.  Trailing Cleveland by 2 games, seeing Cleveland lose, than giving up a big lead in 7th, failing to score in the 10th, then losing on a quirky play in the bottom of the 10th.

[bean5302]

Considering what we've heard from Duran, it's unlikely Alcala does much of his own pitch calling. Jeffers is apparently using a middle-middle target technique on glove placement to get more strikes.

Tavaras - First pitch .410 xwOBA (worst spot to throw) vs. changeup -3. Second pitch .323 (avg. spot to throw) vs. fastball -8. Tavaras struggles to hit fastballs, and the pitch he got a hold of was in a spot he's not strong this year. Good pitch.

Semien - Only pitch .293 xwOBA (okay zone, but too high, too close to middle/middle where he's .411 xwOBA) vs. fastball +7. Throwing Semien a fastball was a poor choice. Semien is like Larnach in his ability to rake 4 seamers. Not keeping it further away from middle/middle was also bad. Terrible pitch.

Seagar - Only pitch .580 xwOBA (terrible spot. Absolutely must stay out of the middle for Seager) vs. changeup +3. Seager is strong against most pitches this year, historically, the changeup has given him a bit of difficulty. He's consistently bad against sliders. Terrible pitch.

Garcia - 1st pitch .195 xwOBA (okay spot. weak zone for Garcia, but too far out.) vs. fastball -8. 2nd pitch (okay spot, too low after the first pitch was so far out of the zone) vs. sinker -4. 3rd pitch .357 xwOBA (poor location, Garcia has hit pitches up there quite well) vs. fastball -8. 2-0 fastball outside the zone, but still in a spot Garcia hits well is a bad pitch.

I can go on, I suppose, but it seems like pretty poor pitch selection and poor locations. Not sure who made the pitch calls or where they asked Alcala to put the balls, but if Alcala put them where he was asked, the person calling the game needs some better memory on scouting.

[Beast]

8 hours ago, MinnInPa said:

not Alcala related ..but, is anyone else frustrated/annoyed by the run on contact when we have runners at 3rd base. numerous times this year the runner is pegged out easily at  home when the ball is hit to a drawn in infielder.. i know there would be an easy out at first..but , id still rather have the guy on 3rd base

What irritates me the most is Julien’s complete lack of effort.  Basically flat footed on contact, and not even a thought of attempting to slide to evade the tag or force a dropped ball.  Or, the smartest thing he could done there, would be get in a rundown and give the other runner a chance to get into scoring position.  Instead, he just gave up on the play.

I’d have had him on his way back to the minors before the bottom half of the 10th was over.

Putting that call on there was idiotic.  A competent base runner on third that can move a little bit?  Sure.  But, I could pull a random middle aged person out of their chair after an 8 hour day at our office, and they could’ve gotten down the line faster and provided better effort.

Back to Alcala, they should’ve gotten some ready to get him out of there after Garcia’s home run.  Inexcusable to let him give Texas the lead there.

[Western SD Fan]

I don’t suggest this was part of Sunday’s game. But an umpire’s strike zone can lead to an implosion. We saw that with a more seasoned pitcher earlier (Yates) earlier in the series. He was potentially squeezed out of a couple pitches and that imploded into a crooked number for us. I’m not sure what you do there. Alcalá lost the lead in under 10 pitches. You just don’t anticipate that. But the team didn’t give up, Santana hits a 9th inning home run to still give us a chance. If you would have said going into the series that we would take 3 of 4, I would have been happy. It’s just the way the loss occurred that leaves the sour taste.

[Linus]

22 hours ago, Beast said:

What irritates me the most is Julien’s complete lack of effort.  Basically flat footed on contact, and not even a thought of attempting to slide to evade the tag or force a dropped ball.  Or, the smartest thing he could done there, would be get in a rundown and give the other runner a chance to get into scoring position.  Instead, he just gave up on the play.

I’d have had him on his way back to the minors before the bottom half of the 10th was over.

Putting that call on there was idiotic.  A competent base runner on third that can move a little bit?  Sure.  But, I could pull a random middle aged person out of their chair after an 8 hour day at our office, and they could’ve gotten down the line faster and provided better effort.

Back to Alcala, they should’ve gotten some ready to get him out of there after Garcia’s home run.  Inexcusable to let him give Texas the lead there.

You are correct in that when the contact play is on and you are a dead duck your job is to get into a rundown so other runners can advance. But this team is fundamentally not sound and these types of mistakes happen nearly every game. Alcala had a rough game but nobody is talking about the errors we’ve made to end the last two games. 

[akmanak]

Fantastic breakdown of what happened. I would really enjoy seeing more articles like this.

[USAFChief]

Odd. Last night, as the Twins rallied in the 7th, they put 3 consecutive hitters on base to start the inning. Somehow, the Atlanta manager was able to, from not having anyone warming, get a new pitcher ready and in the game to face the Twins 4th hitter, Eddie Julien. 

I've been told that's impossible. 

For the record, the new reliever gave up a double to Julien, but retired 3 consecutive hitters after that, stranding Julien and preserving the lead.