Twins Taking “Walks Will Haunt” Mantra to New Levels

[Cody Christie]

The Metrodome’s scoreboard posted a simple message when the opposition issued a free pass to first base, “Walks will haunt.” In an era where strikeouts are king, the Twins pitching staff is avoiding the ghosts associated with walks.

Image courtesy of © Tommy Gilligan, Matt Krohn, Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

Twins starting pitchers have been put into some challenging situations this season, with the team’s offense disappearing for stretches of games. This lack of offensive production puts extra pressure on the starting staff to avoid base runners because any run could be the difference between winning and losing. When the club scores more runs, there is less pressure on every pitch, making it easier for the starters to find their rhythm on the mound. The Twins' starting pitchers have had a clear strategy in recent weeks: to avoid walks, so let’s look at the numbers and see if it is sustainable.

Pablo López leads the Twins starting pitchers in more than one way. Over the past 14 days, he has posted a 1.3 BB% with a 0.5 BB/9 and an 18.0 K/BB. Last season, his 6.0 BB% was the second-best total for his career, and he lowered that to 4.0 BB% through his first ten starts in 2024. Baseball Savant ranks his BB% in the 92nd percentile, and his walk improvements might be tied to pitch mix changes. He is throwing his four-seamer more regularly this year (+5.7%), and that pitch has produced a 28.1 Whiff% and a 23.1 Put Away%. López’s overall results have been below last season, but he’s leading the way when avoiding walks. 

Bailey Ober has been known for his control throughout his professional career, and that trend has indeed continued into 2024. Over the last 14 days, he has a 2.5 BB% with a 0.9 BB/9 and a 14.0 K/BB. For his career, Ober has averaged a 5.0 BB%, and he’s rarely strayed from that total. His strikeout totals have been the biggest surprise this year. He’s posted a career-high of 26.6 K% and has led the staff with a 35.0 K% over the last two weeks. His most significant pitch alteration has been the addition of a cutter to his pitch mix. He throws the pitch 23% of the time, and batters have been held to a .316 SLG against it. Ober pounds the strike zone, and that trend will continue. 

Joe Ryan has seen some of the most considerable improvements regarding walks, with his 3.8 BB% and his 1.4 BB/9 being career-best totals. Over the last two weeks, he has had the highest walk rate among the team’s starters, but he is making strides compared to earlier in his career. Simeon Woods Richardson (3.3 BB%) and Chris Paddack (3.6 BB%) are also helping the team’s record-setting pace. SWR has struggled with walks, including a double-digit walk rate in two previous seasons. Minnesota worked with him on his mechanics entering the 2024 season, and the overall results have been positive. Paddack is in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery, which can come with some control issues. However, he is pitching near his career marks regarding walks. 

During Minnesota’s recent anti-walk campaign, the team’s starters easily lead baseball in BB%. The Twins have a 2.9 BB% over the last two weeks, and the second-ranked Dodgers and Tigers have a 5.1 BB%. Minnesota’s 7.2 K/BB is also at the top of the league, with LA and Detroit second at 4.5 K/BB. It seems unlikely that the Twins starters will sustain a walk rate that is an outlier compared to the rest of the league. However, it has clearly been a focus for the staff, and they understand the demons that can follow when allowing free runners to reach base. 

Can Twins starters sustain their current walk rate? Which starter has the best chance to continue avoiding walks? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[bean5302]

I believe Baldelli talked about Ryan needing to be more willing to walk people a year ago.

Walks haunt, but they haunt a lot less than leaving a meatball over the plate to avoid issuing a walk, and the Twins' starting pitchers are struggling with that particular issue having the worst barrel rate against in baseball. Their hard hit rate and exit velocities are middle of the pack so it's boom or bust, much like the team's recent years batting philosophy.
League average barrel rate is 8.2%.
Varland 13.8%, Paddack 10.3%, Ober 9.4%, Ryan 9.2%, Lopez 8.5%, Woods Richard 8.3% are all worse than league average in that category.

I don't have enough time to research how the Twins' pitchers fare vs. average on walk rates and barrel rates based on the count.

[Doctor Gast]

I understand the necessity of limiting walks, especially with extra focus on velo & stuff & our staff should be applauded. But IMO it's also prudent sometimes to give up a walk than allow a hitter to do some damage & have the wisdom  to know when,

[Pat]

There is no defense for a walk. Unfortunately, too often, a walk is followed by a home run because the pitcher groves one to avoid another walk. It's the combination of walks and home runs that is especially damaging. I would take solo homers over walks followed by home runs any time.

[stringer bell]

The Twins have the highest K/9 and lowest BB/9 in MLB (through yesterday). Overall, their pitching staff is middle-of-the-road as far as runs allowed. 

[bean5302]

18 hours ago, Pat said:

There is no defense for a walk. Unfortunately, too often, a walk is followed by a home run because the pitcher groves one to avoid another walk. It's the combination of walks and home runs that is especially damaging. I would take solo homers over walks followed by home runs any time.

It's a pitchers job to get outs, but if you put the pitcher into a bad spot, they're better off risking a walk than trying to force a risky pitch past an MLB hitter.