2024 Minnesota Twins Preview: Can a New Formula Get the Same Result?

[Ted Schwerzler]

With spring training over, the Minnesota Twins' roster finalized, and the season ready to kick off, it’s time to put a bow on the exhibition slate and turn to games that matter. The Twins return as division favorites, and will have their hands full getting the job done.

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

With spring training over, the Minnesota Twins' roster finalized, and the season ready to kick off, it’s time to put a bow on the exhibition slate and turn to games that matter. The Twins return as division favorites, and will have their hands full getting the job done.

Despite a maddeningly penurious offseason, the Twins have the foundation of a regional hegemon in place. Now, they just have to actually win baseball games.

2023 Record: 87-75 (93-69 Pythagorean)
2024 PECOTA: 90-72

Key Losses: Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle, Emilio Pagán, Michael A. Taylor, Joey Gallo, Jorge Polanco
Key Additions: Justin Topa, Anthony DeSclafani, Manuel Margot, Steven Okert, Carlos Santana, Josh Staumont, Jay Jackson

The Big Storyline
After a year in which Rocco Baldelli had one of the best starting rotations in baseball, this team will almost certainly have a new identity. The question is: will they have enough pitching, and is it going to produce at a high enough level? There are few questions about what Pablo López brings to the table; his ceiling is winning a Cy Young Award. Beyond that, how much further Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober can take their game will be key.

The back of the rotation is already being tested depth-wise, with DeSclafani being out for Opening Day, and very much in question for the season as a whole. Louie Varland is going to get his shot out of the gate, and the hope would be that his success from the bullpen translates into a more significant and difficult role. Chris Paddack looked good in his brief return last year, but his effectiveness and availability out of the rotation are every bit as uncertain as Varland's.

Unlike the rotation, the bullpen has a good chance to be among the best in baseball. Not having Jhoan Durán and Caleb Thielbar to start the year is a big blow, but if they can get back quickly, it could mitigate disaster. Just how much pitching this team is going to have, and where the depth can step up from, is going to be a season-long question mark.

Why They Will Be a Threat
There was a time when the Twins employed one of the best, most productive lineups in baseball. Of course, that coincided with a juiced baseball during the 2019 season, but this club doesn’t need to hit 307 home runs in order to get up on teams. Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, and Royce Lewis being healthy while following Edouard Julien at leadoff could be among the best one-through-four lineup starts in the game.

Baldelli’s lineup should be much deeper this season, and the strikeouts have been mitigated somewhat. Max Kepler will need to substantiate last year's second-half surge with a more consistent campaign, and Matt Wallner will hope he left his horrible spring swing down in Fort Myers. The addition of Santana should help from multiple angles, and if a breakout comes for Alex Kirilloff, things could get very interesting.

The Twins' offensive thought process is rooted in the talent of players they didn’t get much availability from last year. Injuries are difficult to project year-over-year, but if they’re right, they’ll be right in a big way.

Why They Won’t Be a Threat
When looking at this 26-man roster, the Twins' path to victories is almost perfectly inverted from last season. The rotation shouldn’t be expected to be nearly as dominant, and the depth is going to be tested much more quickly. A season ago, only eight pitchers worked as regular starters for Baldelli. In 2024, it wouldn’t be shocking if they run through that many by some point in June.

The lineup was cold out of the gate in 2023, and that put plenty of pressure on the pitching. It will be that group tasked with doing the heavy lifting this time around, and having stars remain on the field is a must. Buxton appears to be coming into the season fully healthy, but with him, present availability is never a guarantee of future viability.

More than last season, this roster seems to be built upon plenty of things going right along, with a handful of hopeful assumptions made along the way. Minnesota is still clearly the best team in the division on paper, but it could take them a bit to establish that identity on the field.

2024 Prediction: 91-71 (1st AL Central)

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[Karbo]

I agree that the key this season is injuries. So many with injury histories. How long can they hold their breath hoping for good health?

[mikelink45]

I am not sure that I see the Twins as good as the projections and articles have painted them for 2024.  They will win the AL Central, but that is not the question.  

As Karbo points out - it is injuries.  With three down in the BP I cannot accept our continual bragging about the best BP.  Maybe we will be when all are healthy, but not yet.  The top three in the rotation look solid.  Is Ober or Ryan a real number 2?  Can Paddock put in the innings we need?  And is Varland a good starting pitcher or a great RP?  Can he stop giving up HRs?  

And I do not need to remind anyone of the injuries of the past and what a repeat would mean.  

There is just a lot to sort out and I will wait until May before making my personal decisions on where we rank in a lot of categories. 

[KBJ1]

If we had just done what AZ has done, sign Montgomery, even for 1 yr; we'd be a WS favorite.

Instead we spent $15M on DeSclafani, Santana & Margot.

Varland is already in and Miranda & Martin could have done the same or better for $10M less.

That's the ongoing beef with the Twins ownership.  Afraid to spend big when needed (Correa the exception) and trust their prospects to grow into the roles.  Instead they spend foolishly on reclamation projects, stop gaps and has beens. 

We all know this team needed 5 things going into this season.

A #2 SP , a 5 tool RH bat for LF ( Gurriel would been a steal) 2 of Martin ,Miranda or Lee to step up and bullpen depth.

They addressed one of the 5 things (Bullpen) and still spent nearly $20M.

Unless some magic synergy happens, they could fall flat on their faces.