2024 Minnesota Twins Preview: Can a New Formula Get the Same Result?

Despite a maddeningly penurious offseason, the Twins have the foundation of a regional hegemon in place. Now, they just have to actually win baseball games.

2023 Record: 87-75 (93-69 Pythagorean)
2024 PECOTA: 90-72

Key Losses: Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle, Emilio Pagán, Michael A. Taylor, Joey Gallo, Jorge Polanco
Key Additions: Justin Topa, Anthony DeSclafani, Manuel Margot, Steven Okert, Carlos Santana, Josh Staumont, Jay Jackson

The Big Storyline
After a year in which Rocco Baldelli had one of the best starting rotations in baseball, this team will almost certainly have a new identity. The question is: will they have enough pitching, and is it going to produce at a high enough level? There are few questions about what Pablo López brings to the table; his ceiling is winning a Cy Young Award. Beyond that, how much further Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober can take their game will be key.

The back of the rotation is already being tested depth-wise, with DeSclafani being out for Opening Day, and very much in question for the season as a whole. Louie Varland is going to get his shot out of the gate, and the hope would be that his success from the bullpen translates into a more significant and difficult role. Chris Paddack looked good in his brief return last year, but his effectiveness and availability out of the rotation are every bit as uncertain as Varland's.

Unlike the rotation, the bullpen has a good chance to be among the best in baseball. Not having Jhoan Durán and Caleb Thielbar to start the year is a big blow, but if they can get back quickly, it could mitigate disaster. Just how much pitching this team is going to have, and where the depth can step up from, is going to be a season-long question mark.

Why They Will Be a Threat
There was a time when the Twins employed one of the best, most productive lineups in baseball. Of course, that coincided with a juiced baseball during the 2019 season, but this club doesn’t need to hit 307 home runs in order to get up on teams. Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, and Royce Lewis being healthy while following Edouard Julien at leadoff could be among the best one-through-four lineup starts in the game.

Baldelli’s lineup should be much deeper this season, and the strikeouts have been mitigated somewhat. Max Kepler will need to substantiate last year's second-half surge with a more consistent campaign, and Matt Wallner will hope he left his horrible spring swing down in Fort Myers. The addition of Santana should help from multiple angles, and if a breakout comes for Alex Kirilloff, things could get very interesting.

The Twins' offensive thought process is rooted in the talent of players they didn’t get much availability from last year. Injuries are difficult to project year-over-year, but if they’re right, they’ll be right in a big way.

Why They Won’t Be a Threat
When looking at this 26-man roster, the Twins' path to victories is almost perfectly inverted from last season. The rotation shouldn’t be expected to be nearly as dominant, and the depth is going to be tested much more quickly. A season ago, only eight pitchers worked as regular starters for Baldelli. In 2024, it wouldn’t be shocking if they run through that many by some point in June.

The lineup was cold out of the gate in 2023, and that put plenty of pressure on the pitching. It will be that group tasked with doing the heavy lifting this time around, and having stars remain on the field is a must. Buxton appears to be coming into the season fully healthy, but with him, present availability is never a guarantee of future viability.

More than last season, this roster seems to be built upon plenty of things going right along, with a handful of hopeful assumptions made along the way. Minnesota is still clearly the best team in the division on paper, but it could take them a bit to establish that identity on the field.

2024 Prediction: 91-71 (1st AL Central)