Kelenic Won't Platoon with the Braves.

[Riverbrian]

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/braves-jarred-kelenic-in-line-for-everyday-at-bats/#:~:text=Atlanta president of baseball operations,Brien of The Athletic reports.

I attach this link for discussion purposes. It's a pet topic of mine. I think that young players need to develop. I don't like the extreme platooning that we do. 

Every case is different so case by case I understand but here is a major league GM with the opinion that "Atlanta feels that giving Kelenic regular work versus lefties will be the best way for him to improve".   

[Mike Sixel]

Agreed!

[ashbury]

He hit better against lefties than righties in 2023.  Doesn't seem like such a gamble as all that.  Seattle already paid the price of the learning curve.

[Doctor Gast]

Atlanta is a 1st rate team. It makes no sense to try to find someone to platoon with Kelenic when he has such good splits & there isn't anyone in-house good enough to platoon with. With more playing time those splits should only get better.

But if anyone's splits aren't good & you have someone available to fill that slack. I'm all in for platooning especially if you don't have a roster spot crunch.

[Riverbrian]

9 hours ago, ashbury said:

He hit better against lefties than righties in 2023.  Doesn't seem like such a gamble as all that.  Seattle already paid the price of the learning curve.

He certainly did but to be fair... Kelenic didn't really hit right handers either. Both sides were a learning curve for him. 

I find it interesting that his favorable splits against left handers didn't happen until Seattle actually started holding him out of the lineup against left handers. Watch the proportion walk itself down. 

2021  38%

143 Pa's against LH - .490 OPS

234 PA's against RH - .695 OPS 

143 PA's total in the Minors

2022 32%

59 PA's against LH - .587 OPS

122 PA's against RH - .426 OPS

394 PA's total in the minors

2023 22%

92 PA's against LH - .774 OPS

324 PA's against RH - .748 OPS

43 PA's total in the minors. 

For comparison in 2023

The Seattle Mariners 2023 faced a left hander 26% of the time. 

Julien 2023 11%

Freeman led all left handers in plate appearances last year and was 3rd overall so this guy is facing everyone. His percentage was 30% in 2023. 

It's almost like the Mariners force fed him extra lefties in the beginning and walked him down to taking some left handers away from him. 

I don't think I've found anything in the Curious Case of Jered Kelenic.

Just interesting proportions year over year in the Kelenic saga as I renew my complaint against the extreme mothering of young Julien. 

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Atlanta is a 1st rate team. It makes no sense to try to find someone to platoon with Kelenic when he has such good splits & there isn't anyone in-house good enough to platoon with. With more playing time those splits should only get better.

But if anyone's splits aren't good & you have someone available to fill that slack. I'm all in for platooning especially if you don't have a roster spot crunch.

Consistency is a hard thing to locate in baseball. If I had to guess... his splits will pinball. Who knows how his splits will present in 2024. 

His splits were fine last year but his splits were not good in 2022 and 2021... Small Sample Size all of them but the overall point is letting him work through it. The Mariners did and the Braves are going to continue.  

You are right about the Braves... they really don't have a right handed option to platoon Kelenic if they wanted to platoon him.

It is absolutely fair to point out that Anthopoulus making those comments is kind of like the guy telling you that he has decided to start walking to work when the truth is that he sold his car. 

[Riverbrian]

Getting off the splits. Kelenic is also an interesting compare and contrast with Brooks Lee. 

Both were highly ranked prospects. 

Both were promoted aggressively through the system. Differences were that Kelenic had to deal with the 2020 covid year and Kelenic was a high school draft pick while Lee entered pro ball older drafted out of college. 

They have similar minor league numbers at the A and AA level. Although... Kelenic really only had a cup of coffee at AA probably due to the 2020 covid shutdown which may have accelerated his timeline since he appeared in AAA the following year. 

A+

Kelenic - 190 PA's - .838 OPS 

Lee - 114 PA's - .848 OPS

AA

Kelenic - 92 PA's - .857

Lee - 407 PA's - .839

Once they hit AAA... Kelenic started in AAA before his call up to the majors in May. Kelenic claimed that he didn't start the season with the Mariners because he refused to sign an extension and of course a May call up does suggest the possibility of service time manipulation. To compile those 143 PA's. Kelenic did a month in AAA in April and a month or so in June after he was sent down because he wasn't very good in the majors in 2021.  

Kelenic - 143 PA's - 1,016 OPS

Lee - 168 PA's - .731 OPS 

Kelenic has an additional year of AAA time in 2022 since 2021 didn't work out that well in the majors. 394 PA's with a .922 OPS.  

Why am I comparing them... I am certainly not claiming that a similar fast arc will crash and burn in the majors like it did with Kelenic. These are two different individuals after all and very few things are linear in the game of baseball. 

But... can we at least and look what happened with Kelenic who has really nothing to prove in the minors and still everything to prove in the majors. Can we at least take note that the Mariners burned two options and 1.169 years of service time with sub par play (Last year was decent) before he was basically traded to the Braves in order for Atlanta to take on the salary the Mariners were dumping via Marco Gonzales and Evan White totaling around 20 million. The Braves didn't want Marco Gonzalez. Atlanta traded Marco to the Pirates along with Cash two days later for a PTNBL.     

 

[ashbury]

4 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Just interesting proportions year over year in the Kelenic saga as I renew my complaint against the extreme mothering of young Julien. 

It's all interesting but I think merely serves to limit how good of a comp Kelenic is for Julien.

The Twins had a problem with lefty hitters against lefty pitchers in 2023.  Second worst OPS among all major league teams - Kepler was acceptable, as was Gallo (!) and Gordon (!!), all the others were below .500 (!!!).  It may not be simply a matter of lack of opportunity, but somehow they're not being coached to succeed, in which case force-feeding isn't the answer and better technique (whatever that may be) is. 

Wallner for instance appears to be a fearless batter - he gets a lot of HBP which I assume means he won't back down, and I frequently bring up the AFL game Chief and I watched where he took a pitch off his jaw and he was back in the lineup a few games later and hit like nothing had happened.  A tough guy.  I don't believe he's flinching when the ball comes from that direction.  And yet in his short MLB career his Right/Left split on OPS is .949/.442.  That's almost an inconceivable split.  It's still small sample size, and he didn't exhibit this problem coming up in the minors, so I don't claim to know the answers. 

But improvement is mandatory, Priority #1, Wallner and all the other lefties, because 13-man rosters aren't enough to platoon everybody.  I don't think Rocco substituting or not substituting is the root cause.

[Riverbrian]

8 minutes ago, ashbury said:

It's all interesting but I think merely serves to limit how good of a comp Kelenic is for Julien.

The Twins had a problem with lefty hitters against lefty pitchers in 2023.  Second worst OPS among all major league teams - Kepler was acceptable, as was Gallo (!) and Gordon (!!), all the others were below .500 (!!!).  It may not be simply a matter of lack of opportunity, but somehow they're not being coached to succeed, in which case force-feeding isn't the answer and better technique (whatever that may be) is. 

Wallner for instance appears to be a fearless batter - he gets a lot of HBP which I assume means he won't back down, and I frequently bring up the AFL game Chief and I watched where he took a pitch off his jaw and he was back in the lineup a few games later and hit like nothing had happened.  A tough guy.  I don't believe he's flinching when the ball comes from that direction.  And yet in his short MLB career his Right/Left split on OPS is .949/.442.  That's almost an inconceivable split.  It's still small sample size, and he didn't exhibit this problem coming up in the minors, so I don't claim to know the answers. 

But improvement is mandatory, Priority #1, Wallner and all the other lefties, because 13-man rosters aren't enough to platoon everybody.  I don't think Rocco substituting or not substituting is the root cause.

As far as I can tell... Thus Far... There isn't a Julien/Kelenic comp other than young, developing and left handed.

Julien produced excellent numbers against right handers right out of the gate. Kelenic fell flat against right and left out of the gate so Julien's splits are more dramatic but utilization is also much much more dramatic as well. 

You are right... The Twins were the absolute worst in the league with left handed hitters facing left handed pitchers. .589 OPS  (29th). 187 Batting Average (30th).

21st in Plate Appearances Left vs Left with 351 and that kind of shocks me but I suppose it's a by-product by having more left handers on the roster than other clubs. 

I don't know if force feeding is what I'm asking for... but it could be construed that way because development and preparation for the unknown are my primary concerns and it's a short walk from my concerns to force feeding. 

Development is easy to understand... Preperation for the unknown is a little more complicated but it's almost as important... the Twins were inches from being down two right handed hitters entering the playoffs which would have put their backs against the wall in the playoffs by having to play a left handed hitter against left handed pitching. 

Force feeding them preparation for that possible moment may not solve the issue but I will certainly feel better when Julien has to face Framber Valdez because there is nobody else if he had at least faced someone like Framber Valdez... successfully or not. 

You never know what you need until you need it. It'll be interesting to see what the Twins do with their left handers this year. More of the same or are opportunities increased. 

 

 

 

[Doctor Gast]

8 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

He certainly did but to be fair... Kelenic didn't really hit right handers either. Both sides were a learning curve for him. 

I find it interesting that his favorable splits against left handers didn't happen until Seattle actually started holding him out of the lineup against left handers. Watch the proportion walk itself down. 

2021  38%

143 Pa's against LH - .490 OPS

234 PA's against RH - .695 OPS 

143 PA's total in the Minors

2022 32%

59 PA's against LH - .587 OPS

122 PA's against RH - .426 OPS

394 PA's total in the minors

2023 22%

92 PA's against LH - .774 OPS

324 PA's against RH - .748 OPS

43 PA's total in the minors. 

For comparison in 2023

The Seattle Mariners 2023 faced a left hander 26% of the time. 

Julien 2023 11%

Freeman led all left handers in plate appearances last year and was 3rd overall so this guy is facing everyone. His percentage was 30% in 2023. 

It's almost like the Mariners force fed him extra lefties in the beginning and walked him down to taking some left handers away from him. 

I don't think I've found anything in the Curious Case of Jered Kelenic.

Just interesting proportions year over year in the Kelenic saga as I renew my complaint against the extreme mothering of young Julien. 

IMO the glove has something to do with it. I'd be all in favor if Julien was made the primary 1Bman last year & going into this season (where Kiriloff & Miranda has been in doubt) & give him a solid diet of LHPs to see how he does & if he can improve.

[Riverbrian]

39 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

IMO the glove has something to do with it. I'd be all in favor if Julien was made the primary 1Bman last year & going into this season (where Kiriloff & Miranda has been in doubt) & give him a solid diet of LHPs to see how he does & if he can improve.

The glove typically doesn't have much to do with platoon splits but I see what you are saying.

It's easier to absorb struggling against left handers if the glove is saving some runs. 

I'm not anti-defense... I get the significance of the extra out given due to a bad defensively play or lack of range and I get the significance of the out that was taken away by extraordinary defense. However... my opinion is that the majority of balls in play are routine plays. So I believe that routineness will minimize the defensive value because it would create a huge pile of average defensive players. Again... I'm not minimizing the importance of robbing someone of a hit or that boot at a key moment but I think defense is over run by routine.  

Ultimately we need to use the early regular season up to the trade deadline to determine what we need at the trade deadline or if we are merely sellers, identify who we trust for the stretch run of a pennant chase in September and determine which horses we are going to go with in the playoffs.

We also need to use the regular season for preparation through exposure. If someone gets hurt... can Julien play 1B. Get him prepped through some exposure. If a couple of right handers get hurt and we need Julien to face left handed pitching... get him prepped through some exposure. 

The glove... that gets prepped through exposure as well. I watched Julien get better last year. He started rough and was decent toward the end of the year. 

[SaberNerd]

4 hours ago, ashbury said:

It's all interesting but I think merely serves to limit how good of a comp Kelenic is for Julien.

The Twins had a problem with lefty hitters against lefty pitchers in 2023.  Second worst OPS among all major league teams - Kepler was acceptable, as was Gallo (!) and Gordon (!!), all the others were below .500 (!!!).  It may not be simply a matter of lack of opportunity, but somehow they're not being coached to succeed, in which case force-feeding isn't the answer and better technique (whatever that may be) is. 

Wallner for instance appears to be a fearless batter - he gets a lot of HBP which I assume means he won't back down, and I frequently bring up the AFL game Chief and I watched where he took a pitch off his jaw and he was back in the lineup a few games later and hit like nothing had happened.  A tough guy.  I don't believe he's flinching when the ball comes from that direction.  And yet in his short MLB career his Right/Left split on OPS is .949/.442.  That's almost an inconceivable split.  It's still small sample size, and he didn't exhibit this problem coming up in the minors, so I don't claim to know the answers. 

But improvement is mandatory, Priority #1, Wallner and all the other lefties, because 13-man rosters aren't enough to platoon everybody.  I don't think Rocco substituting or not substituting is the root cause.

Wallner had 46PA in the majors against LHP.  He had 83 in AAA last year and had a 1.060 OPS.  He also had a .143 BABIP in the majors against them, and had similar K% rates against RHP and LHP (but lower BB% against LHP).  Way too much analysis and freaking out over a 46PA sample size.

[ashbury]

48 minutes ago, SaberNerd said:

Way too much analysis and freaking out over a 46PA sample size.

Twins were second from the bottom in the majors in 2023, lefty/lefty.  The small samples added up.

Disturbing that the four who put up the putrid splits were all the young guys - Kirilloff, Larnach, Wallner and Julien.  Is current coaching a factor?  Brian's focus seemed to be on just Julien, but improvement is needed across the board.

I'm actually confident that some of this will correct itself (BABIP, SSS, whatever), and that coaching isn't blind to this and will direct appropriate instruction to the matter.  This will let each of us claim credit for our POV having carried the day. 😀

[DocBauer]

I don't have any answers. But I do have opinions and questions.

Try as teams will to find LH arms of any sort...much less GOOD LH arms...batters are still going to see a RH arm about 75-80% of the time. That's minors and majors. So a LH batter has the general, built in, same side disadvantage of angels and the such. But on top of that, they simply aren't going to see LH pitchers near enough on a consistent basis for it be natural to them. Conversely, if you are a RH batter and can't hit RH pitching, you just aren't going to make it. You have to be at least semi OK. I think the difference in OPS for a LH batter from a RH pitcher to a LH pitcher is something like 100-150 points lower in OPS, if not more. 

The key is...except for those few guys who can someone maintain a close to OPS number...just HOW low does the OPS drop? I mean, if a guy has an .800 OPS and it drops to the low .700 or even high .600 range, he's not going to kill you facing a LH thrower, especially if it's the starter or an early appearing reliever. The reason for that is obvious, probably going to be facing a RH arm sooner or later and you want him available. Conversely, if your LH .800 OPS hitter drops to .600, or worse, (shudder), you're probably just going to have to accept sitting him whenever possible against same side arms.

Yes, this is all a bit obvious. But it needs to be stated that history has simply shown that you can have a LH hitter face LH pitching all the time, every time, and it doesn't show that he's going to develop in to a GOOD hitter against LH arms. But you also can't platoon everywhere. 

I don't have a clue, but don't scouts and coaches have SOME IDEA of who MIGHT develop and be at least acceptable against port side arms? I mean, it would seem to me that someone who has Julien's approach...controlled aggressiveness, power, the ability to work a count and look for the right pitch, the ability to hit with a couple of strikes or work a walk...would develop in to one of those solid, acceptable hitters just given an opportunity. 

But what do I know?  LOL Is it a confidence, vision, or just a certain stroke with how the bat comes through the strike zone plane that just allows some guys to be better at it? I'd like to think those in charge would have the experience and knowledge to recognize certain traits that might lead to a LH bat developing in this way. And maybe they do and it's just that damn hard! 

But I do think you must give opportunity to a young player to see if he CAN develop that skill. I mean, you can't platoon every spot anyway, so you might as well as try to develop that skill, right?

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

 Brian's focus seemed to be on just Julien, but improvement is needed across the board.

 

That's only because I'm too lazy to type additional names like Kirilloff and Wallner plus I struggle with if a dash is necessary when typing left handed and I'm unsure about the spelling of development. 

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

That's only because I'm too lazy to type additional names like Kirilloff and Wallner plus I struggle with if a dash is necessary when typing left handed and I'm unsure about the spelling of development. 

I've also heard you don't know the meaning of fear.

[Riverbrian]

12 hours ago, ashbury said:

I've also heard you don't know the meaning of fear.

I never use the word fear because I'm afraid of it.  

[TopGunn#22]

LOTS of analysis.  I think I'm getting a headache.  I'm all in favor of letting the LH hitters work it out.  You can't get comfortable hitting lefties if you only see one every two weeks or so.  Certain LH pitchers I would sit someone like Julien or Kirilloff.  A healthy Kershaw with his slow breaking stuff and pinpoint control is not a good matchup.  Blake Snell on the other hand walks a lot of guys.  That plays into someone like Julien and his strike zone discipline.

Usually, switch hitters are better from the left side, although Mickey Mantle always said he was a much better RH "hitter" even though his power from the left side was superior.  Is Brooks Lee decidedly better from one side or the other?  

While I'm happy to have the consistent and stable presence of Santana at 1B and in our lineup, I'm also looking forward to seeing Brooks Lee at 2B and either Julien or Kirilloff nailing down 1B for the long term.  Either way, I would like to see Wallner, Julien and Kirilloff get more ABs against lefty pitchers this year.  I DON'T want to see any of them get pinch hit for in the second inning.  

[jorgenswest]

The only possible purpose for Farmer on this roster is to platoon with Julien. We certainly aren’t going to hope he starts hitting right handed pitching at this point. We can hope for the luck of BABIP or HR/FB rate but the skill is in decline.

Why not save the Farmer money and start Julien against left handed pitching? Bat him ninth. He will likely still get a couple of at bats against right handed relievers. They can still sit against the best left handed pitchers and play Martin or Castro.

However they chose to pay Farmer. The only way that pays off is to start him at 2B against every lefty and squeeze out every other opportunity.