The Minnesota Twins Are Ready to Build on a Foundation of Depth

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

I didn’t have strong feelings either way on Gallo. As you note, he was clearly not performing well. I’ll also note that many on the “dump Gallo” train were also on the “dump Kepler” train and the FO was right on that one.

(Many of these folks were also on the “dump Pagan” train, but that’s a different discussion. That discussion really only applies to this one in that the FO got two out of three right when it comes to the players who were consistently the biggest lightning rods for criticism. I tend to assume the FO is smarter than folks on TD (or at least me, anyway).) 

My primary point was to refute the false narrative of Gallo playing a ton, even after he was underperforming. Last year’s false narrative was the Rocco pulls pitchers too early, and we had to deal with that all off-season.

I support your posts. More power to ya. The front office draws too much heat for typical front office decisions while having the the past constantly dragged by some into moments of sunshine.  

I was also on the dump Kepler train. Today... even with the benefit of hindsight... I have no issue stating that I would have sent him packing in June even after watching his wonderful August and September.  

On Kepler... It can be perceived that the front office was eventually right and I recognize that eventual rightness while also stating that they were still wrong regardless. We did get two wonderful months of Kepler but it came at a cost of 2 and half years of not wonderful. 

Pagan... I wouldn't have brought him back in the off-season. Once he was brought back... I let him pitch and he gave me no reason to complain in 2024 so I didn't. 

I recognize the occasional wrongs in right and the occasional right in wrongs. The front office lives in that same world as the rest of us and deserve the same blue on black considerations that we give ourselves.  

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Developing them is always the best way to have top talent on your major league roster. But on a year to year basis the answer can't be "well we plan to develop Jenkins into Larry Walker so we're good to go." Lee/Martin and Jenkins can't be your plan A for raising the 2024 ceiling. And we saw in the playoffs the primary position players weren't good enough. Of course you hope for continued growth from the youngsters, but do we expect Lewis to be much better than he was in the playoffs? Do we expect Julien to be better? Those guys pretty well maxed out the realistic expectations we should have for their postseason performance. Where else can we add talent for the 2024 team? That's the question.

The Twins have done the "develop" part of the plan, right? They have their young guys at, or on the doorstep to, the major league level now. They have the cheap talent. Now's the time to go get your Grienke, Verlander, Seager, Semien, Abreu (terrible regular season, but monster postseason so far) type guys. You absolutely need the young guys to come up and be key pieces, but Houston and Texas filled around those guys with stars. Dodgers developed guys then filled around them with Betts and Freeman type guys (HOFers). Philly developed Stotts, Bohm, Nola, etc. but filled around them with Schwarber, Harper, Castellanos, and Wheeler. Atlanta developed Acuna, Albies, Riley, and Strider types, but filled in around them with Morton, Murphy, Olson, Ozuna types. Dbacks developed Carroll, Thomas, and Perdomo types but brought in Marte, Pham, Moreno, Gurriel, and Gallen types. The Twins have done the develop part. Now it's time for the "bring in" part of the plan, in my opinion.

So, do we spend $30M on another "Correa type" free agent or do we trade Lee and a couple other good prospects for an impact player with two years of control?  

Personally, I am not trading top prospects for guys with two years of control.  That's not a good path to sustained success.  I would favor signing Montgomery or Rodriquez or even Snell if they can sustain a $150M+ payroll.  I would sure like to know the plan for TV distribution.  We know MLB has assembled the right people to address this issue and I would hope this is a coordinated effort among all the teams and the league.

[Mike Sixel]

5 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

You can't improve much on Jeffers as a catcher, you can improve on him as a top of a playoff order hitter (especially since he wasn't one this year). That is my point. Jeffers is not a top 4 in a playoff lineup hitter. He's wonderful as a 5-9 hole hitter, and that's great from a catcher. Really lengthens your lineup. I'm happy to have him. But this team needs guys like Altuve, Bregman, Alvarez, and Tucker. Or Schwarber, Turner, Harper, and Castellanos. The Twins need stars. Lewis is a high possibility guy if he can stay healthy. Julien has a shot if he can learn to hit lefties (you already know I don't like them platooning him), and cut down the Ks. Wallner's most realistic top level is a Gallo type slugger with high K rates, and high slugging. That's not the kind of guy you put in the top 4 of a playoff lineup. Maybe Lee and Jenkins can be those guys? Correa isn't that guy (wasn't that guy in Houston either). Kirilloff and Buxton can't stay healthy. Jeffers isn't that guy. Larnach isn't that guy. My entire argument is that they need to get guys who the other teams fear. Lewis is the only guy close to that at this point.

I understand it's hard to get better players. I said it's hard. Of course it's hard. But that doesn't mean the plan should be to stick with Kepler. It is realistic to improve on Kepler. Whether or not that's the plan is the question. They were quite good against terrible opponents. Were those 2 better than Gallo and Miranda? Of course. But their offense was still terrible in the playoffs outside of 1 game. They scored 3 or fewer runs in 4 of their 6 games. Wallner and Lewis started most of those games. My point is they have their regular season floor. They can compete in, and should win often, the central and make the playoffs. The next step is improving their odds at winning a WS. A big part of doing that is improving the top of the lineup.

Who are the "productive players with lots of control left" that I suggested getting rid of? I didn't suggest getting rid of any of their young hitters. I suggested moving them around defensively if needed. You said CF, DH, and 1B were the only places they could improve. I said I don't care about the defensive positions, we just need better bats. What's the point of having all this "positional flexibility" if you're going to turn around and say "we can't add any bats because they don't play the positions we have open?" This offense is not WS caliber. That's the next step they need to take. I don't know why that's controversial. 

Except you can't just get a random better hitter. They have to play a position too. You aren't changing third, short, second or catcher. You're keeping Wallner in left or right. That leaves first, center, and DH. Maybe another corner OF. I'm not sure how that's controversial. The only great player they have with real flexibility is Lewis. Everyone else is pretty settled. 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Except you can't just get a random better hitter. They have to play a position too. You aren't changing third, short, second or catcher. You're keeping Wallner in left or right. That leaves first, center, and DH. Maybe another corner OF. I'm not sure how that's controversial. The only great player they have with real flexibility is Lewis. Everyone else is pretty settled. 

Why aren't you changing third, short, second or catcher? Arenado freaks out and demands out of St Louis and you say "no thanks" cuz you can't fit him in at third, move Lewis to 2B, and Julien to 1B? Correa was going to move to 3B in NY, but we can't have him do that plus move Lewis and Julien? Julien already played 1B this year, but we can't move him in 2024? 

No team should operate that way. Mookie is a pretty good right fielder. Best in the game I'd argue. Played IF this year. Why would the Twins limit their options by refusing to move anyone around on defense? 

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

So, do we spend $30M on another "Correa type" free agent or do we trade Lee and a couple other good prospects for an impact player with two years of control?  

Personally, I am not trading top prospects for guys with two years of control.  That's not a good path to sustained success.  I would favor signing Montgomery or Rodriquez or even Snell if they can sustain a $150M+ payroll.  I would sure like to know the plan for TV distribution.  We know MLB has assembled the right people to address this issue and I would hope this is a coordinated effort among all the teams and the league.

Either. Both. Whatever it takes. The vast majority of their core is locked in for 5+ years. I think that core needs more talent. If they can't replace 1 top prospect in 5 years they're not going to sustain success anyways. If Lewis-Correa-Julien-Kirilloff is your IF answer like some here seem to believe why can't you move Lee? If those 4 are good enough to be a WS core you don't need Lee.

Can't argue their current lineup is good enough while simultaneously arguing you can't trade their replacements when that whole IF is locked in for years. I don't trust Kirilloff to stay healthy, Julien to hit lefties, and I'd move Lewis to CF, but I'm being told by some here (not necessarily you) that you can't move any of the IF guys so 1B is the only opening. Lee isn't a 1B and doesn't profile as an elite bat there so if you can't move the 3 guys in his positions why can't you trade him if those guys are good enough to be the WS core?

There's risk in trading him. There's risk in not trading him. Can't give an opinion on if I like trading him until we know the return possibilities. All I'm saying is that this team is lacking top end offensive talent. Getting it requires risk 100% of the time. Would they be better off today having traded Kirilloff or Buxton for elite offensive talent instead of hoping they get healthy? Hoping on prospects is every bit as risky as trading them.

[tony&rodney]

42 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

There's risk in trading him. There's risk in not trading him. Can't give an opinion on if I like trading him until we know the return possibilities. All I'm saying is that this team is lacking top end offensive talent. Getting it requires risk 100% of the time. Would they be better off today having traded Kirilloff or Buxton for elite offensive talent instead of hoping they get healthy? Hoping on prospects is every bit as risky as trading them.

There are risks and the Twins cannot afford to be risk adverse. When we began to hear small murmurs that Miami had some interest in a Twin last Fall, I was all over the idea and didn't really care who we traded if the return was notable. 

This offseason there should be additional opportunities, but it isn't clear if any teams see a player(s) from the Twins that is an object of desire. The Twins can afford to trade any player that makes their team better. Falvey needs to identify a player or two that can be reasonably acquired. While it would be decent to add via the free agent market, I believe the pitchers will be too expensive for the Twins and the position player options are limited to Cody Bellinger.  A high risk trade for Soto seems very unlikely but he would be a difference maker and hold a spot for a miracle-like rise from Emmanuel Rodriguez. Yes, the Twins need to add talented bats (and pitchers). but it will be a tall task. I'm hopeful.

[Major League Ready]

56 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Either. Both. Whatever it takes. The vast majority of their core is locked in for 5+ years. I think that core needs more talent. If they can't replace 1 top prospect in 5 years they're not going to sustain success anyways. If Lewis-Correa-Julien-Kirilloff is your IF answer like some here seem to believe why can't you move Lee? If those 4 are good enough to be a WS core you don't need Lee.

Can't argue their current lineup is good enough while simultaneously arguing you can't trade their replacements when that whole IF is locked in for years. I don't trust Kirilloff to stay healthy, Julien to hit lefties, and I'd move Lewis to CF, but I'm being told by some here (not necessarily you) that you can't move any of the IF guys so 1B is the only opening. Lee isn't a 1B and doesn't profile as an elite bat there so if you can't move the 3 guys in his positions why can't you trade him if those guys are good enough to be the WS core?

There's risk in trading him. There's risk in not trading him. Can't give an opinion on if I like trading him until we know the return possibilities. All I'm saying is that this team is lacking top end offensive talent. Getting it requires risk 100% of the time. Would they be better off today having traded Kirilloff or Buxton for elite offensive talent instead of hoping they get healthy? Hoping on prospects is every bit as risky as trading them.

I have always been with you on moving Lewis to CF or even making him a better version of Marwin Gonzalez.  

BTW ... The first guy I would trade from this team is Polanco.  I would use the payroll plus Gray's salary to get a very good free agent SP and I would move Varland to the BP.  This does assume they come up adequate revenue sources from TV distribution to maintain payroll so that they can sustain the roster.

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I have always been with you on moving Lewis to CF or even making him a better version of Marwin Gonzalez.  

BTW ... The first guy I would trade from this team is Polanco.  I would use the payroll plus Gray's salary to get a very good free agent SP and I would move Varland to the BP.  This does assume they come up adequate revenue sources from TV distribution to maintain payroll so that they can sustain the roster.

Royce Lewis seemed like he was being groomed for CF. The ACL injury, which had (really) nothing to do with playing centerfield changed that for him and the Twins. Of course people change their minds but Falvey and Baldelli were pretty emphatic that Lewis is a third baseman. Not totally insignificant, Boras has stated that Lewis is a superstar infielder in the making. So I think that ship has sailed, no matter what seemed possible looking at the Twins personnel from our perspective.

Jorge Polanco is still a very good baseball player. What team is going to trade a valuable player for Polanco? While it is possible that there is some future star playing in the Dominican Summer League available in return for Jorge, I doubt the Twins are adding to their farm system by moving a guy like Polanco right now. The rumors of Polanco's demise may be a few years away. It is very possible that Polanco is added to a prospect or a young controlled player as the second Twins player in a trade. 

Louie Varland has the potential to be better than both Ryan and Ober. He pitched for a small D2 school, Concordia in St. Paul, before just two full minor league seasons before this past year. Varland is relatively inexperienced. He needs some refinement of his pitches but more importantly needs to throw all of his pitches with the same conviction that he throws his fastball. While Varland was dazzling in his relief role this year, I believe he is a strong 6-7 inning starting pitcher. 

The TV/media revenue stream is important for the Twins revenue. Will a deal be in place before the Twins need to be negotiating with free agents and conducting discussions on potential deals with other teams? Without a deal in place or reasonably sure on the horizon, the player payroll is unlikely to return to $155 million for 2024. A deal for a strong pitcher would be nice but seems more of an outside wish because of the money. A payroll around $150 million for next season sure would be sweet though.

[old nurse]

On 10/19/2023 at 3:07 PM, Riverbrian said:

You either sign, trade or develop to raise the ceiling. Luck is always necessary no matter the path chosen. It could be said that Correa's REGULAR season was not luck based on his struggles at the plate... although his signing was an attempt to raise that ceiling higher. 

Last Off-Season. The Mariners acquired Teoscar Hernandez coming off 3 plus years of .800 plus OPS for Erik Swanson and some lefty in the minors. That's one example off the top of my head of a recent trade that raised the ceiling or at least tried to.

In hindsight... Teoscar had a down year for the Mariners but it was an attempt by the Mariners to bring in a game changing player to add to the depth they had assembled. 

 

Seattle is a pitchers park. Hernandez couldn’t hit there. 

[old nurse]

Welcome to Lake Wobegon where everybody is above average.  That Garrison Keillor line keeps popping up.  

Depth is only a moment in time.  It will not be static What comprises the depth is not stable.

Young depth has only three option years

Minor league free agents it is luck if they hit their ceiling playing for you.. Your minor league free agent leave when they figure out the probably are not going to make the major league in your system.

Major league free agents have the problem of regression. Either they have regressed and someone hopes it is temporary or they are going to regress.  

The depth that is relief pitching defies logic. 

[stringer bell]

Perhaps the hidden defect in having a 40-man roster full of players is that there isn't a lot of room for more players, especially if some players can't be optioned to the minors. I just don't think there is room for Donovan Solano, Willi Castro and Kyle Farmer on the 2-24 Twins. If that is true, who goes and how do they go? 

I do believe the 40-man crisis on the pitching side is less of an issue, especially with key pitchers Maeda, Gray and Pagán all free agents. 

Add in the uncertainty of TV revenue for 2024, and the Twins may not be able to add through free agency while losing several players, stripping them of the depth that was so vital last year. However, there are players on the horizon that may add to the top level--Martin, Lee, Severino--but that is not a sure thing. 

There are several players who appear to be excess at this point. Trevor Larnach, perhaps Jose Miranda and Nick Gordon to name a few, really don't have a role going forward if everyone is healthy. However, the Twins probably need major league depth in waiting in center field and they still need an outfielder that fares well against left handed pitching. Perhaps some of the excess can be traded for those needs, but again there goes the depth.

In this scenario, the Twins are going to have to count on their minor league depth to step in and step up. Wallner, Lewis and Julien did that last year. Can Martin, Lee and a couple of pitchers do so next year?