Game 3 will decide who Astros Start Game 4

[Trov]

With series tied 1-1 we will have a game 4. I believe Dusty will decide who starts game 4 depending on outcome of game 3.  If the Twins win game 3, I bet Dusty sends Verlander out for game 4 on short rest, then if needed game 5 Valdez on full rest.  If Twins lose game 3, I bet he runs J.P. France out for game 4, then Verlander, if needed on full rest for game 5, with Valdez the early pen move if Verlander struggles at all. 

I believe this because if you are in an elimination game, Dusty will go with what he thinks is his best chance to win, but if he has a game in hand he will want to rest Verlander, to make sure he has full rest, and then he both his best pitchers for game 5 if needed.  Also, it set up his starters for next round if Astros can end it in 4 without using Verlander again, but if they could get knocked out you need your best, even on short rest. 

This shows how big game 3 is for Twins.  If we can win it will have Astros on heels, and we seen how some managers will, at times, overmanage in elimination games. 

[TopGunn#22]

We are in pretty good shape coming home with Sonny Gray set to start.  At least "on paper."  For all those who hated and maybe still hate the Arraez trade, this is why the Twins had to do it.  Lopez has been OUTSTANDING in the playoffs.  The Twins had Polanco, Julien, Lewis and fast rising Brooks Lee.  (you could even add Nick Gordon to that list based on his 2022 season).  With Gray almost sure to leave (I'd love to see the Twins come up with a way to keep him) they are going to need to make a similar trade this off season.  In addition to Gray, Maeda is probably moving on.  Varland and Paddock will be counted on to step up, but you need more than 5 starters.  Nobody makes it through an entire season without at least one stint on the I.L.  

Reviews of ball and strike calls in the Twins two game sweep of the Blue Jays showed the Twins were on the short end of calls that cost them over 2 and a half runs.  The Twins are currently on the short end by almost 3 runs in the Astro series after 2 games (the corners of the plate for Verlander and Valdez have been HUGE, not so much for Twins hitters).  This data is from reviewing the consistency (or lack thereof) of ball and strike calls in relation to the "pitch box."  In other words, the Twins are getting hosed.  

This is why, despite the fact that I'm a baseball traditionalist, I'm looking forward to the eventual phasing out of home plate umps calling balls and strikes.  The called 3rd strike on Castro on an inside pitch by Verlander in game #1 was terrible.  Polanco should have hit a grand slam.  Lewis should have followed up with a game tying HR.  That one call changed the trajectory of that game.  I'm looking forward to Aaron Judge, Mookie Betts or whoever, not "getting" the borderline call.  

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Trov said:

With series tied 1-1 we will have a game 4. I believe Dusty will decide who starts game 4 depending on outcome of game 3.  If the Twins win game 3, I bet Dusty sends Verlander out for game 4 on short rest, then if needed game 5 Valdez on full rest.  If Twins lose game 3, I bet he runs J.P. France out for game 4, then Verlander, if needed on full rest for game 5, with Valdez the early pen move if Verlander struggles at all. 

I believe this because if you are in an elimination game, Dusty will go with what he thinks is his best chance to win, but if he has a game in hand he will want to rest Verlander, to make sure he has full rest, and then he both his best pitchers for game 5 if needed.  Also, it set up his starters for next round if Astros can end it in 4 without using Verlander again, but if they could get knocked out you need your best, even on short rest. 

This shows how big game 3 is for Twins.  If we can win it will have Astros on heels, and we seen how some managers will, at times, overmanage in elimination games. 

Completely agree on Baker’s strategy with Verlander.

A Verlander/Valdez/RH relievers scenario for Friday is scary. They could turn our lineup some with Valdez in relief.

The big deal outside of the obvious advantage a win Tuesday gives us…….we can get into their bullpen and soften them up or at least see them more of them for Thursday prep.

[RocRedWing]

45 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

We are in pretty good shape coming home with Sonny Gray set to start.  At least "on paper."  For all those who hated and maybe still hate the Arraez trade, this is why the Twins had to do it.  Lopez has been OUTSTANDING in the playoffs.  The Twins had Polanco, Julien, Lewis and fast rising Brooks Lee.  (you could even add Nick Gordon to that list based on his 2022 season).  With Gray almost sure to leave (I'd love to see the Twins come up with a way to keep him) they are going to need to make a similar trade this off season.  In addition to Gray, Maeda is probably moving on.  Varland and Paddock will be counted on to step up, but you need more than 5 starters.  Nobody makes it through an entire season without at least one stint on the I.L.  

Reviews of ball and strike calls in the Twins two game sweep of the Blue Jays showed the Twins were on the short end of calls that cost them over 2 and a half runs.  The Twins are currently on the short end by almost 3 runs in the Astro series after 2 games (the corners of the plate for Verlander and Valdez have been HUGE, not so much for Twins hitters).  This data is from reviewing the consistency (or lack thereof) of ball and strike calls in relation to the "pitch box."  In other words, the Twins are getting hosed.  

This is why, despite the fact that I'm a baseball traditionalist, I'm looking forward to the eventual phasing out of home plate umps calling balls and strikes.  The called 3rd strike on Castro on an inside pitch by Verlander in game #1 was terrible.  Polanco should have hit a grand slam.  Lewis should have followed up with a game tying HR.  That one call changed the trajectory of that game.  I'm looking forward to Aaron Judge, Mookie Betts or whoever, not "getting" the borderline call.  

yeah, I agree on the robo umps. Twins got hosed again last night too. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Houston has to win 1 game against Gray or Lopez.  Verlander on short rest isn't likely to get it done.  If I were them, I would throw the kitchen sink accept Verlander in Game 4.  He gives them a shot in game 5.  Valdez right now doesn't have it.  

I expect to see lots of intentional walks coming to Correa with runners on.  

[chpettit19]

58 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

We are in pretty good shape coming home with Sonny Gray set to start.  At least "on paper."  For all those who hated and maybe still hate the Arraez trade, this is why the Twins had to do it.  Lopez has been OUTSTANDING in the playoffs.  The Twins had Polanco, Julien, Lewis and fast rising Brooks Lee.  (you could even add Nick Gordon to that list based on his 2022 season).  With Gray almost sure to leave (I'd love to see the Twins come up with a way to keep him) they are going to need to make a similar trade this off season.  In addition to Gray, Maeda is probably moving on.  Varland and Paddock will be counted on to step up, but you need more than 5 starters.  Nobody makes it through an entire season without at least one stint on the I.L.  

Reviews of ball and strike calls in the Twins two game sweep of the Blue Jays showed the Twins were on the short end of calls that cost them over 2 and a half runs.  The Twins are currently on the short end by almost 3 runs in the Astro series after 2 games (the corners of the plate for Verlander and Valdez have been HUGE, not so much for Twins hitters).  This data is from reviewing the consistency (or lack thereof) of ball and strike calls in relation to the "pitch box."  In other words, the Twins are getting hosed.  

This is why, despite the fact that I'm a baseball traditionalist, I'm looking forward to the eventual phasing out of home plate umps calling balls and strikes.  The called 3rd strike on Castro on an inside pitch by Verlander in game #1 was terrible.  Polanco should have hit a grand slam.  Lewis should have followed up with a game tying HR.  That one call changed the trajectory of that game.  I'm looking forward to Aaron Judge, Mookie Betts or whoever, not "getting" the borderline call.  

Where are you getting your strike zone runs data from? Just curious because Umpire Scorecards is the place I check and their numbers are way lower than that for the Astros series.

[2wins87]

I would feel fine about facing Verlander on short rest in game 4.

There may have been some rust after an extended rest for game 1, so it's possible he finds his mechanics early and dominates.  But the Twins had good at bats in Game 1, and a 40 year old Verlander on short rest is pretty unlikely to be at his peak.

Certainly I think they'd have a better shot against Urquidy and the bullpen, but the difference might not be as huge as it sounds on paper.

[2wins87]

29 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

I expect to see lots of intentional walks coming to Correa with runners on.  

I think there will be a re-shuffling of the lineup on Tuesday, I'll be interested to see how it lands.

I thought batting Correa in the 6 spot against RHP made perfect sense after the season he had, but it looks like he's back now.

Who is batting behind him as a deterrent to walking him?  Probably the simplest change would be Correa to 3rd behind Julien and Polanco then probably followed by Kepler and Lewis.

I would make a case for using Polanco, who has been a solid postseason performer himself, behind Correa.  Not sure if you move Correa all the way up to #2 or just swap Kepler and Polanco. 

I think my lineup would be: Julien, Kepler, Corrrea, Polanco, Lewis, Wallner, Kirilloff, Jeffers, Taylor.  Could potentially start Willi in center and bat him 8th ahead of Jeffers for maximum offense too.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Protecting Correa will be interesting, other than Lewis no one else scares any other team.   

[2wins87]

5 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I would go Kirilloff, Jeffers, Wallner in that order to split up the lefty's and because Wallner has not been very efficient in the playoffs yet.

I think Wallner's at bats have looked better than Kirilloff's, though neither has gotten the results yet.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Verlander on short rest is exactly what you want. He hasn't been the Verlander of old for most of the season and while he was dominant on Saturday, I don't think he could turn around on short rest and do the same thing in game 4. Twins can't worry about Friday. There doesn't have to be a game on Friday. Handle your business on Tuesday and Wednesday, end the series.

[Not Greg Gagne]

1 hour ago, 2wins87 said:

I thought batting Correa in the 6 spot against RHP made perfect sense after the season he had, but it looks like he's back now.

Call me cold-hearted after last night, but I don't see moving Correa any higher than 4th and I think 5th is actually his best use with how much of a psychological impact he has on the Astros at this point.

If you need to move him up, I think Kepler has to be the one to fall to 5 with Carlos up to 4. I'm not moving Polo or Lewis down behind Carlos. I am also worried about his double plays coming back. Those were just killer this year. and I'd hate to see two-on, one out with Lewis on deck to "protect" Correa, only to have the inning end before Lewis gets an AB.

At 5, just before Wallner, Jeffers and Kirilloff, in whatever order, he provides protection for Lewis and Polonco and can be in place to provide the exclamation point to what the top of the order has started. I like both of those things more than seeing him in the first inning, or whatever else the 3 or 4 spot would do for the lineup.

[LA Vikes Fan]

2 hours ago, 2wins87 said:

I think there will be a re-shuffling of the lineup on Tuesday, I'll be interested to see how it lands.

I thought batting Correa in the 6 spot against RHP made perfect sense after the season he had, but it looks like he's back now.

Who is batting behind him as a deterrent to walking him?  Probably the simplest change would be Correa to 3rd behind Julien and Polanco then probably followed by Kepler and Lewis.

I would make a case for using Polanco, who has been a solid postseason performer himself, behind Correa.  Not sure if you move Correa all the way up to #2 or just swap Kepler and Polanco. 

I think my lineup would be: Julien, Kepler, Corrrea, Polanco, Lewis, Wallner, Kirilloff, Jeffers, Taylor.  Could potentially start Willi in center and bat him 8th ahead of Jeffers for maximum offense too.

Understand the thinking, but I don't like moving Polanco back or moving Kepler. up. Polanco has been hitting the ball hard; Kepler has not. Wallner, Jeffers and Kirilloff also are not yet hitting in the playoffs. Wallner especially looks bad - they've found the high inside fastball is a pitch he seems to always swing at but can't hit. I think you stay with something close to what got us here - Julien, Polanco, Lewis, Correa, Kepler, Jeffers, Kirilloff, Taylor, Wallner.  Switch Correa and Kepler so Correa has more RBI opportunities and move Wallner to the 9 hole to split up he and Kirilloff. If they're going to play Vasquez - gotta believe he will start one of the next 2 games - he hits 9, Kepler and Correa switch, and everyone 6-9 moves up one.