Meet the 2023 Cincinnati Reds

[stringer bell]

If you're like me, you haven't seen the Cincinnati Reds play a lot of baseball in 2023. What I (and you, dear reader) do know is that they are a surprise contender for a Wild Card in the National League, and that their success has been fueled by ex-Twin farmhands Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand (we'll call his CES going forward). 

The Reds started slow, but have played better and better as the season has gone along. Speer has been an everyday player, starting the season at third base, but transitioning to first base and left field. He's had a breakout season and certainly should get lots of votes for Rookie of the Year. Speer has over 100 more plate appearances than the second-most frequent Reds hitter and he's put up very good numbers--22 homers, 81 RBI, an OPS over .800 and even 14 stolen bases. It appeared that Speer was blocked by a similar player in the Twins' system (Jose Miranda), but he's produced this year while Miranda had a lost season and may well never be a regular for the Twins. CES was recalled at mid-season and has hit decently (105 OPS) while splitting his time between first base and DH. The Reds are a young team, with Jake Fraley and Nick Senzel (both 28) being the oldest position players to play regularly. That doesn't count Joey Votto, who has been dogged by injuries and is hitting .202, but has played in only 56 games so far this year. The Reds are fifth in the NL in runs scored, while eighth in homers. They are #1 in the National League in stealing bases. 

Reds' pitching looks uninspiring. They are 12th in the NL in runs allowed and ERA. It looks like they will have no pitchers who qualify for the ERA championship (the Twins did that last year). Hunter Greene, who the Twins passed over to select Royce Lewis, has had injuries and control issues, but has fanned 129 in 97 innings. The bullpen is led by closer Alexis Diaz, who has a 2.10 ERA, 84 Ks in 64 innings and 37 saves. Two guys who actually pitched for the Twins have contributed to the bullpen, Ian Gibaut leads the Reds in bullpen appearances, has a 3.07 ERA and nine victories. Derek Law is 4-6 with a 3.86 ERA and has been used a couple times as an Opener. 

It should be fun to see how the Twins stack up against Cincy. It is a given that they'll be going all-out as they sit a half game out of the last Wild Card. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Most of Steers WAR came in the first 2 months,  with an OPS over .900.  Since then ok.  CES  has been playing at a 0.1 WAR.  Effectively replacement level.  MLB pitchers are more effective at striking him out and limiting HR.  I expect that to change next year.  Of the two bats,  he has a better one in my opinion,  just such a large jump this year.  Impressive what he did,  but they fed him to the wolves trying to stay competitive.  

[FlyingFinn]

12 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Ian Gibaut leads the Reds in bullpen appearances, has a 3.07 ERA and nine victories.

Gibaut, Cano, and Coulumbe would look really good in our bullpen this year. How did we misevaluate them and let all of them go very cheaply from AAA.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

18 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Most of Steers WAR came in the first 2 months,  with an OPS over .900.  Since then ok.  CES  has been playing at a 0.1 WAR.  Effectively replacement level.  MLB pitchers are more effective at striking him out and limiting HR.  I expect that to change next year.  Of the two bats,  he has a better one in my opinion,  just such a large jump this year.  Impressive what he did,  but they fed him to the wolves trying to stay competitive.  

You are a frequent contributor here - thank you. 

I have to confess, however, that I have no idea where you are getting your data. Looks like Steer had a deep slump in July, otherwise he has been consistently really good, including August and September. It will be fun to watch him tonight.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I don’t think Cinci has the horses to finish ahead in the wild card chase. But they must be thrilled at how far they have progressed. I think they were universally predicted to finish last or second to last in their division. Eddie de la Cruz is one of those transformational talents.

[Unwinder]

I kind of like that the Reds have some former Twins prospects doing well. Gives me a reason to care about them.

[stringer bell]

Just now, FlyingFinn said:

Gibaut, Cano, and Coulumbe would look really good in our bullpen this year. How did we misevaluate them and let all of them go very cheaply from AAA.

Don't forget Ian Hamilton of the Yankees. I would say that it happens. The Twins picked up Brock Stewart and out of nowhere, he put up outstanding numbers until being sidelined. None of these guys are youngsters--Hamilton is 28, Cano is 29, Coulombe is 33 and Gibaut is 29. Something clicks for guys and most times it doesn't last.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

47 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

You are a frequent contributor here - thank you. 

I have to confess, however, that I have no idea where you are getting your data. Looks like Steer had a deep slump in July, otherwise he has been consistently really good, including August and September. It will be fun to watch him tonight.

 

Besides a strong 16 game performance in sept.  His July and august had an average OPS of .700 over 215 at bats.  An .800 OPS is basically replacement level I believe.  The only thing you could say is he bottomed out in July and is beginning to figure it out again in Sept.  A 2.8 WAR is still a really good season,  However its a similar situation to Arraez where his performance was elite through June and then he has fallen off a cliff like he has for the last 3 years as the season as wore on.   

April/March	25	24	104	91	12	23	6	1	2	9	1	1	10	24	.253	.337	.407	.743	37	1	2	0	1	0	1	.318	85	106
May	27	27	121	110	18	35	8	1	6	19	0	1	10	22	.318	.372	.573	.945	63	2	0	0	1	0	0	.349	131	155
June	27	26	112	89	12	24	5	0	5	20	8	0	18	18	.270	.411	.494	.905	44	1	4	0	1	0	0	.284	125	149
July	24	24	99	90	9	21	1	0	2	10	0	0	8	23	.233	.303	.311	.614	28	2	1	0	0	0	1	.292	54	69
August	27	26	116	102	10	26	11	0	3	14	3	0	11	25	.255	.336	.451	.787	46	1	2	0	1	0	0	.307	94	112
Sept/Oct	16	15	69	57	7	14	0	0	4	9	2	1	10	14	.246	.377	.456	.833	26	1	2	0	0	0	0	.256	107	125

[Dave Borton]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

The Reds are a young team, with Jake Fraley and Nick Senzel (both 28) being the oldest position players to play regularly.

Reds have 2nd youngest team in MLB. Guardians have youngest.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

26 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Arraez

Arraez’s OPS is currently back up to .864 while Julien’s OPS stands at .843, and that’s primarily against right handed pitchers and the favorable platoon split, since Julien is mostly being protected from a disadvantageous platoon weakness. 

Your take on Steer is also strange to me. It looks like Steer can hit. Whatever. There was no drop off like Rooker had. 

Look, it’s ok to be a homer on this site, but it’s really hard to have a discussion with someone if they are just making up numbers and interpretations! 

[Parfigliano]

49 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

 

Besides a strong 16 game performance in sept.  His July and august had an average OPS of .700 over 215 at bats.  An .800 OPS is basically replacement level I believe.  The only thing you could say is he bottomed out in July and is beginning to figure it out again in Sept.  A 2.8 WAR is still a really good season,  However its a similar situation to Arraez where his performance was elite through June and then he has fallen off a cliff like he has for the last 3 years as the season as wore on.   

April/March	25	24	104	91	12	23	6	1	2	9	1	1	10	24	.253	.337	.407	.743	37	1	2	0	1	0	1	.318	85	106
May	27	27	121	110	18	35	8	1	6	19	0	1	10	22	.318	.372	.573	.945	63	2	0	0	1	0	0	.349	131	155
June	27	26	112	89	12	24	5	0	5	20	8	0	18	18	.270	.411	.494	.905	44	1	4	0	1	0	0	.284	125	149
July	24	24	99	90	9	21	1	0	2	10	0	0	8	23	.233	.303	.311	.614	28	2	1	0	0	0	1	.292	54	69
August	27	26	116	102	10	26	11	0	3	14	3	0	11	25	.255	.336	.451	.787	46	1	2	0	1	0	0	.307	94	112
Sept/Oct	16	15	69	57	7	14	0	0	4	9	2	1	10	14	.246	.377	.456	.833	26	1	2	0	0	0	0	.256	107	125

Wish the Twins had some more .800 OPS guys cause that is not a replacement level OPS.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

41 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Wish the Twins had some more .800 OPS guys cause that is not a replacement level OPS.

Lewis Wallner Jeffers and Julien are all over .800.  Kepler is close.  It does look like replacement level is between .700 and .800.  Also you have to exclude WAR from the defensive side.  But yes it would be great if we had a few more hitters above .800.  

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

Don't forget Ian Hamilton of the Yankees. I would say that it happens. The Twins picked up Brock Stewart and out of nowhere, he put up outstanding numbers until being sidelined. None of these guys are youngsters--Hamilton is 28, Cano is 29, Coulombe is 33 and Gibaut is 29. Something clicks for guys and most times it doesn't last.

Gibault played last season for Cleveland.   Cano you have to give credit to Baltimore for recognizing to change the arm slot.  Coulombe was a mistake on Twins end.  Picked the wrong player,  the one with higher upside and it didn't work out.  

[GusGus11]

2 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

I don’t think Cinci has the horses to finish ahead in the wild card chase. But they must be thrilled at how far they have progressed. I think they were universally predicted to finish last or second to last in their division. Eddie de la Cruz is one of those transformational talents.

De La Cruz has so much potential and hopefully I dont jinx us this week, but hes been terrible and borderline unplayable for months now.

He is lucky in that we dont have a lefty going. Better off letting me bat right handed then him right now.

Will be fun to watch him play this week though.

[stringer bell]

The Reds added Hunter Renfroe and Harrison Bader with waiver claims and those additions have not worked. They’ve combined for 10 hits in 70 at-bats, one homer and seven RBI. Renfroe was DFAed today and Bader placed on IL. 

[Dave Borton]

7 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

t does look like replacement level is between .700 and .800

When facing an opposing team batter, I use .250 and .750 as how to mentally sort the guy out.

As an aside, I was curious. Forced me to look it up: MLB average this year is .249/.735.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

10 minutes ago, GusGus11 said:

De La Cruz has so much potential and hopefully I dont jinx us this week, but hes been terrible and borderline unplayable for months now.

He is lucky in that we dont have a lefty going. Better off letting me bat right handed then him right now.

Will be fun to watch him play this week though.

You are right - not too great

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, Parfigliano said:

Wish the Twins had some more .800 OPS guys cause that is not a replacement level OPS.

This series is a good reminder to watch other teams from time to time. Specifically for the Reds, pay close attention to Steer and CES with the gloves. There is a reason they were expendable and a reason they are fighting each other for 1st base time.