Solano and Farmer: Twins' secret clutch weapons

[Muppet]

One of the things that strikes me about this team compared to previous years' teams is that this group manages to squeak out wins against good teams without superstars (except Royce Lewis who is new on the scene). There are no Mauers or Morneaus. No Kirby Pucketts or Torii Hunters. Even the would-be superstars, Correa and Buxton, are hitting like minor leaguers. 

Nevertheless, we keep seeing relatively unknowns club in winning runs late in games (As Castro did yesterday). So I got to looking at deeper stats and found a couple of really interesting tidbits. While last year, Nick Gordon was one of the team's best clutch hitters -- meaning he was at least somewhat less likely to strike out with the bases loaded -- this year the Twins have a few truly talented guys who do much better under pressure. I looked at a few of the player's slash lines with RISP and 2 outs, compared to their overall slash lines, and found a few gems. 

Exhibit 1. Donovan Solano.

Solano	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Overall	0.287	0.372	0.404	0.776
RISP	0.365	0.51	0.527	1.037
2 Outs	0.283	0.392	0.472	0.864

I've heard some compare the light hitting high average hitter as our new Arraez. He gets on base, but that's about it. But with RISP Solano is a much different beast. And this is with 98 PAs, which I'd guess is not insignificant. A 1.037 OPS with RISP!

Exhibit 2. Kyle Farmer

Farmer	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Overall	0.255	0.312	0.407	0.719
RISP	0.349	0.423	0.561	0.984
2 Outs	0.322	0.385	0.552	0.937

Farmer also is a drastically different player putting up superstar numbers with second and/or third occupied. Not only that, with 2 outs, Farmer appears much more likely than others to get on base and get things going (possibly the pitchers handedness has an impact, but his overall numbers against RHP vs LHP aren't that different). 

Exhibit 3. Royce Lewis

And, surprising nobody, Royce Lewis has been massacring with RSIP, but isn't doing very will with 2  outs. 

Lewis	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Overall	0.306	0.356	0.528	0.884
RISP	0.39	0.455	0.78	1.235
2 Outs	0.237	0.308	0.475	0.783

Exhibit 4. Other points of interest:

 

Castro	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Overall	0.255	0.332	0.405	0.737
RISP	0.275	0.403	0.392	0.795
2 Outs	0.231	0.364	0.363	0.727

Castro, whose late inning heroics led me down this rabbit hole, doesn't actually appear much better with RISP, but he does look to have a significantly higher OBP, which, compared to years past is likely the opposite of most Twins hitters. 

Vazquez	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Overall	0.221	0.277	0.321	0.598
RISP	0.246	0.333	0.339	0.672
2 Outs	0.333	0.364	0.452	0.816
Jeffers	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Overall	0.269	0.368	0.457	0.825
RISP	0.222	0.321	0.417	0.738
2 Outs	0.161	0.366	0.419	0.785

I tend to remember seeing Jeffers come off the bench on his off days to pinch hit late in games. In fact, he recently had a heroic walk off HR if I remember correctly. The numbers would indicate that Vazquez might be the better option to move a runner up with a base hit. They both have comparable OBPs with 2 outs and RISP, but Vazquez' BA is much higher. 

While normally we could look at these situational stats and claim that the N is too low to make solid references, I'd suggest that this late in the season we are probably past that point as most of these situational stat have nearly 100 PAs. But still, I'd leave it to the statisticians in the back office to determine if any of these differences are really significant. My eye test says that they are. 

[NotAboutWinning]

Very interesting analysis!

[Mike Sixel]

Clutch and WPA are existing stats....I wouldn't look at those if I was you. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

4 hours ago, Muppet said:

One of the things that strikes me about this team compared to previous years' teams is that this group manages to squeak out wins against good teams without superstars (except Royce Lewis who is new on the scene). There are no Mauers or Morneaus. No Kirby Pucketts or Torii Hunters. Even the would-be superstars, Correa and Buxton, are hitting like minor leaguers. 

Nevertheless, we keep seeing relatively unknowns club in winning runs late in games (As Castro did yesterday). So I got to looking at deeper stats and found a couple of really interesting tidbits. While last year, Nick Gordon was one of the team's best clutch hitters -- meaning he was at least somewhat less likely to strike out with the bases loaded -- this year the Twins have a few truly talented guys who do much better under pressure. I looked at a few of the player's slash lines with RISP and 2 outs, compared to their overall slash lines, and found a few gems. 

Exhibit 1. Donovan Solano.

Solano	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Overall	0.287	0.372	0.404	0.776
RISP	0.365	0.51	0.527	1.037
2 Outs	0.283	0.392	0.472	0.864

I've heard some compare the light hitting high average hitter as our new Arraez. He gets on base, but that's about it. But with RISP Solano is a much different beast. And this is with 98 PAs, which I'd guess is not insignificant. A 1.037 OPS with RISP!

Exhibit 2. Kyle Farmer

Farmer	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Overall	0.255	0.312	0.407	0.719
RISP	0.349	0.423	0.561	0.984
2 Outs	0.322	0.385	0.552	0.937

Farmer also is a drastically different player putting up superstar numbers with second and/or third occupied. Not only that, with 2 outs, Farmer appears much more likely than others to get on base and get things going (possibly the pitchers handedness has an impact, but his overall numbers against RHP vs LHP aren't that different). 

Exhibit 3. Royce Lewis

And, surprising nobody, Royce Lewis has been massacring with RSIP, but isn't doing very will with 2  outs. 

Lewis	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Overall	0.306	0.356	0.528	0.884
RISP	0.39	0.455	0.78	1.235
2 Outs	0.237	0.308	0.475	0.783

Exhibit 4. Other points of interest:

 

Castro	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Overall	0.255	0.332	0.405	0.737
RISP	0.275	0.403	0.392	0.795
2 Outs	0.231	0.364	0.363	0.727

Castro, whose late inning heroics led me down this rabbit hole, doesn't actually appear much better with RISP, but he does look to have a significantly higher OBP, which, compared to years past is likely the opposite of most Twins hitters. 

Vazquez	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Overall	0.221	0.277	0.321	0.598
RISP	0.246	0.333	0.339	0.672
2 Outs	0.333	0.364	0.452	0.816
Jeffers	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Overall	0.269	0.368	0.457	0.825
RISP	0.222	0.321	0.417	0.738
2 Outs	0.161	0.366	0.419	0.785

I tend to remember seeing Jeffers come off the bench on his off days to pinch hit late in games. In fact, he recently had a heroic walk off HR if I remember correctly. The numbers would indicate that Vazquez might be the better option to move a runner up with a base hit. They both have comparable OBPs with 2 outs and RISP, but Vazquez' BA is much higher. 

While normally we could look at these situational stats and claim that the N is too low to make solid references, I'd suggest that this late in the season we are probably past that point as most of these situational stat have nearly 100 PAs. But still, I'd leave it to the statisticians in the back office to determine if any of these differences are really significant. My eye test says that they are. 

By WPA Vazquez is a rally killer, almost as bad as Correa

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

By WPA Vazquez is a rally killer, almost as bad as Correa

I tried to be nice about it ... But he's been awful all year. Truly costing wins over and over. 

[Doctor Wu]

Solano and Farmer have both been very useful additions to the team, as have other seemingly borderline pickups such as Taylor and Castro. They have all helped the team this year, especially in the wake of injuries to Buxton, Gordon, and Kiriloff. I'm happy to have all of those players on the team. If only we had added handy players like that to the bullpen. Actually, with pitchers like Stewart and De Leon, we did that, albeit in a roundabout way. But once again, the injury bug caught up to us, and we need more arms again.  

[strumdatjag]

Playing Farmer now gives Correa a chance (hopefully) to rest his aching foot before the playoffs.  Donnie Barrels is top pinch hitting bat off of the bench on a healthy Twins playoff team. 

[Muppet]

On 9/13/2023 at 4:16 PM, Mike Sixel said:

I tried to be nice about it ... But he's been awful all year. Truly costing wins over and over. 

Not saying Vazquez has been great, or even good... just that his situational stats with 2 outs (which make up about 1/3 of his plate appearances) are abnormally better than with 0 or 1 out. Maybe this has something to do with the pinch hit situation the other day that angered so many. 

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, Muppet said:

Not saying Vazquez has been great, or even good... just that his situational stats with 2 outs (which make up about 1/3 of his plate appearances) are abnormally better than with 0 or 1 out. Maybe this has something to do with the pinch hit situation the other day that angered so many. 

Except clutch and wpa say otherwise. These stats already exist. 

[SwainZag]

57 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Except clutch and wpa say otherwise. These stats already exist. 

IMO WPA is a terrible statistic

[Muppet]

1 hour ago, SwainZag said:

IMO WPA is a terrible statistic

Right. If he hit as well with 0 and 1 outs as he does with 2 outs he’d have a much higher WPA. 

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, SwainZag said:

IMO WPA is a terrible statistic

That's not the point, look at the stats quoted here, they try to do the same thing.....

[SwainZag]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

That's not the point, look at the stats quoted here, they try to do the same thing.....

He's using actual statistics based on hitting with 2 outs.  WPA is a stat heavily weights hitting at certain times.  I can see where they overlap, but they are not the same thing.  

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, SwainZag said:

He's using actual statistics based on hitting with 2 outs.  WPA is a stat heavily weights hitting at certain times.  I can see where they overlap, but they are not the same thing.  

Ok. Look, Vazquez isn't good. Working hard to find something that shows otherwise it's folly. You can ignore clutch and WPA if you want, I don't care.