Starting to look like standing pat at the deadline was the right strategy

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

The average consensus of non Twins fans was this was a team that would finish 3rd in its division.  The average consensus was 78-82.  The average Twinsdaily projection was mid eighties.  

Can you provide some basis for these claims?

 

 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Can you provide some basis for these claims?

 

 

ESPN had us as a below .500  club firing Rocco missing playoffs and levine and falvine on chopping block   https://puckettspond.com/posts/minnesota-twins-season-prediction-espn-playoffs

Bleacher report 83 https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10079068-reevaluating-all-30-mlb-teams-based-on-2023-preseason-projections

Twinsdaily  - 87 

 

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

Who cares?  If the Twins had traded for a reliever, in my OPINION, they probably had a 50/50 chance at improving the team.  But at what cost.  No one who writes for or comments on TD articles actually sits in on trade negotiations.  But there are a lot of comments like "throw a few bucks" or "it wouldn't take much" that are being made.  All speculation.  And my most important point is (again this is my OPINION), what Hawkeye Bean Counter wrote was his OPINION.  To call it "idiocy" or telling him he's wrong is incorrect.  Opinion isn't right or wrong!  Just because you have a different OPINION, it doesn't make either opinion right or wrong.

Jack Goin is a poster here who worked in the Twins front office. I guarantee there are others past and present, who lurk and probably chuckle at our WAGs.

The OP was a very wordy “I told you so”. It was Hawkeye’s opinion, that they were correct in proclaiming the decision to stand-pat was the correct one.

that, IMO opens it up to countering the correctness of the OP.

I also disagree with the decision to stand pat. It would have been cheaper and more comprehensive to address the deficiency of the bullpen and right handed bench outfielder in the offseason, but the FO chose not to. They then chose not to at the trade deadline, and are now and still feeling that pain. The deficiency of the Bullpen especially will be felt in the post season. If Sonny Gray loses his feel for the strike zone, like he did on Monday, Rocco can’t afford to ride-out 4 exhausting innings on sliders in the dirt and passed balls then go to Headrick and Floro to mop up and just give a game away.

the bullpen is very shallow and depending on starters to become relievers is a hell of a gamble

[Woof Bronzer]

6 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

ESPN had us as a below .500  club firing Rocco missing playoffs and levine and falvine on chopping block   https://puckettspond.com/posts/minnesota-twins-season-prediction-espn-playoffs

Bleacher report 83 https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10079068-reevaluating-all-30-mlb-teams-based-on-2023-preseason-projections

538  -82   https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/al-central-preview-the-twins-are-looking-for-a-bounce-back/

Twinsdaily  - 50% thought 86-89 but average likely slight lower  

 

 

Lol you didn't even read the articles you cited.  ESPN did not "have us below .500".  They didn't even provide a predicted win total, or an order of finish.  ESPN's article in fact doesn't say a word about the Twins, much less firing Rocco, or Falvine.

The other sites you mention only verify what others have told you, that the Twins are tracking right toward their predictions, and if anything they've slightly underachieved given the ridiculously bad division.

But at least you have debunked your own claim about expectations, so we can retire that talking point.  

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

3 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Jack Goin is a poster here who worked in the Twins front office. I guarantee there are others past and present, who lurk and probably chuckle at our WAGs.

The OP was a very wordy “I told you so”. It was Hawkeye’s opinion, that they were correct in proclaiming the decision to stand-pat was the correct one.

that, IMO opens it up to countering the correctness of the OP.

I also disagree with the decision to stand pat. It would have been cheaper and more comprehensive to address the deficiency of the bullpen and right handed bench outfielder in the offseason, but the FO chose not to. They then chose not to at the trade deadline, and are now and still feeling that pain. The deficiency of the Bullpen especially will be felt in the post season. If Sonny Gray loses his feel for the strike zone, like he did on Monday, Rocco can’t afford to ride-out 4 exhausting innings on sliders in the dirt and passed balls then go to Headrick and Floro to mop up and just give a game away.

the bullpen is very shallow and depending on starters to become relievers is a hell of a gamble

My stance was also to show the absurdity of the over reaction at trade deadline.   There were several saying they were done with this org and we were not going anywhere while also not realizing the cost of trying to make a move and what the expected value of that trade is.   The bullpen will be quite a bit different than it is today, and I can guarantee Headrick won't be on it and wouldn't be surprised if Floro isn't either.   

I also think the Twins are playing a longer game, and neither this year or last year, did we have a good enough roster to spend the extra money (that they likely didn't have) on another reliever.  Gallo withstanding.   Yes I have broad shoulders and willing to take some constructive criticisms.   Within 2 weeks the bullpen will not be considered shallow,  maybe weak on the top end.  Varland 2.1 innings of relief yesterday against Tampa, Duran, Thielbar, Jax and possibly Funderburk is an ok to above average bullpen.   

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

8 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Lol you didn't even read the articles you cited.  ESPN did not "have us below .500".  They didn't even provide a predicted win total, or an order of finish.  ESPN's article in fact doesn't say a word about the Twins, much less firing Rocco, or Falvine.

The other sites you mention only verify what others have told you, that the Twins are tracking right toward their predictions, and if anything they've slightly underachieved given the ridiculously bad division.

But at least you have debunked your own claim about expectations, so we can retire that talking point.  

They didn't but based on their responses and also what they were saying before the season they most certainly had us below .500.  Yes I am giving what support I can find,  but  a little harder now.  Even still where is that much different than my claim of 82?   Didn't I provide you with enough evidence . . .  sheesh high hurdle to climb.   

[Richie the Rally Goat]

7 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Lol you didn't even read the articles you cited.  ESPN did not "have us below .500".  They didn't even provide a predicted win total, or an order of finish.  ESPN's article in fact doesn't say a word about the Twins, much less firing Rocco, or Falvine.

The other sites you mention only verify what others have told you, that the Twins are tracking right toward their predictions, and if anything they've slightly underachieved given the ridiculously bad division.

But at least you have debunked your own claim about expectations, so we can retire that talking point.  

538 was the prediction for 2022!

Puckett’s Pond, quite the source 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

4 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

538 was the prediction for 2022!

Puckett’s Pond, quite the source 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-mlb-predictions/  mid season  83 wins

[Woof Bronzer]

4 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

They didn't but based on their responses and also what they were saying before the season they most certainly had us below .500.  Yes I am giving what support I can find,  but  a little harder now.  Even still where is that much different than my claim of 82?   Didn't I provide you with enough evidence . . .  sheesh high hurdle to climb.   

Your "claim" was this:  The average consensus of non Twins fans was this was a team that would finish 3rd in its division.  The average consensus was 78-82.

You have yet to provide evidence of a single source predicting the Twins would a) finish 3rd in its division or b) win 78-82 games.  Providing no evidence is not "enough evidence", and I disagree that providing a single piece of evidence is a "high hurdle".

Fascinated to see how far you are willing to go with this...

[USAFChief]

2 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-mlb-predictions/  mid season  83 wins

First rule of holes: when you find yourself in one, stop digging 

 

 

[laloesch]

1 minute ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Your "claim" was this:  The average consensus of non Twins fans was this was a team that would finish 3rd in its division.  The average consensus was 78-82.

You have yet to provide evidence of a single source predicting the Twins would a) finish 3rd in its division or b) win 78-82 games.  Providing no evidence is not "enough evidence", and I disagree that providing a single piece of evidence is a "high hurdle".

Fascinated to see how far you are willing to go with this...

Honestly what difference does it make at this point.  They have a decent chance at 85 wins or more.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

7 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Your "claim" was this:  The average consensus of non Twins fans was this was a team that would finish 3rd in its division.  The average consensus was 78-82.

You have yet to provide evidence of a single source predicting the Twins would a) finish 3rd in its division or b) win 78-82 games.  Providing no evidence is not "enough evidence", and I disagree that providing a single piece of evidence is a "high hurdle".

Fascinated to see how far you are willing to go with this...

Woof,  the info is out there 

https://franchisesports.co.uk/preseason-world-series-odds-2023/

We were a longer shot on betting odds than both Cleveland and White Sox.   Not by a huge amount,  but its there.  Show some countering data if you disagree.   

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

2 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

First rule of holes: when you find yourself in one, stop digging 

 

 

so you think Twins were expected to beat both Cleveland and White Sox,  because I damn well know that was the projections by the media or others.  So what hole am i digging?  

[Woof Bronzer]

1 minute ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Woof,  the info is out there 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-mlb-predictions/

We were a longer shot on betting odds than both Cleveland and White Sox.   Not a large enough.  Show some countering data if you disagree.   

You seriously need to look at the sources you cite before you site them.  What you referenced is from June 21, 2023, and shows simulated season records using to-date performance  AND IT SHOWS THAT THE TWINS ARE PREDICTED TO WIN THE DIVISION WITH 83 WINS.  

My goodness.  Just put the shovel away man.  

I'm seriously curious:  why do you think it's important to pretend that the Twins have somehow overperformed this year?  

[Richie the Rally Goat]

4 minutes ago, laloesch said:

Honestly what difference does it make at this point.  They have a decent chance at 85 wins or more.

They’re tracking to 84 to 85 wins, correct, when half of their games are played against teams with a combined 236 and 345, 40.6% win or 66 wins 96 losses for a single team-season

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

2 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

You seriously need to look at the sources you cite before you site them.  What you referenced is from June 21, 2023, and shows simulated season records using to-date performance  AND IT SHOWS THAT THE TWINS ARE PREDICTED TO WIN THE DIVISION WITH 83 WINS.  

My goodness.  Just put the shovel away man.  

I'm seriously curious:  why do you think it's important to pretend that the Twins have somehow overperformed this year?  

I told you it was midseason . . .   what are you doing?  What about the betting odds, how do you get around that?  

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/mlb/minnesota-twins-preview-odds-win-total-predictions-bm15/#:~:text=The Twins' win total for the 2023 season is 82.5.   How much more do you need Woof 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

https://www.justbaseball.com/betting/2023-mlb-win-total-projections-early-over-under-picks/   77.5

[Woof Bronzer]

Just now, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

I told you it was midseason . . .   what are you doing?  What about the betting odds, how do you get around that?  

🤣😂😂🤣😂

Have a good day sir.  It's been...interesting.  

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 minute ago, Woof Bronzer said:

🤣😂😂🤣😂

Have a good day sir.  It's been...interesting.  

I gave you your 77-78  . . .   so whats your stance now,  I still haven't seen anything you want to support,

[Riverbrian]

3 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

What chips,  who are your trading and why and who are you getting and what needle are you moving?  Are you making any significant changes in the potential of the team winning a WS,  the answer is no.   So the question is  why spend any chips?Now I do think they engaged and I think the prices were too high or the players taken off the market.  As to the front office,  I think they want to put a solid team out there every year and give themselves a shot.  I think they have a much longer horizon than just this year on competitiveness. The other thing is last year we moved more chips in because we had more players at risk for the rule 5 draft.  This year I don't see a massive crunch.  

Who are your trading and why and who are you getting and what needle are you moving? 

How should I know? I'm not on the phone calls. I've already stated that I'm giving the front office the benefit of the doubt that they made an effort. 

Are you making any significant changes in the potential of a team winning a WS. the answer is no? 

There are no guarantees on anything. No Guarantees that team be better. No Guarantees that the team will be worse. No Guarantees that the team will look the same afterward. 

So the question is why spend any chips? 

Because you are contending team and there are also NO GUARANTEES that the roster that you have in July will be healthy come playoff time. The trade deadline is the last chance for a contending team to supply for the stretch run. No Guarantees that Correa and Buxton will remain terrible or healthy. No Guarantees which Kepler is good or bad? You are in contention and you have the opportunity to bring in help for what you need... when you really don't know what you are going to need because we still have two months to go.  

I think they have a much longer horizon that just this year on competitiveness. 

They better because that is what a front office has to do. But, they also can't ignore a playoff bound team because they don't think they have a chance which is exactly my point of contention for the justification of standing pat. If they take that attitude... I will ask for a new front office. I give them the benefit of the doubt that don't have that attitude... some posters here... Yeah... they display that attitude. 

The other thing is last year we moved chips in because we had more players at risk for the rule 5 draft. 

This makes sense... I think you have to always look at 40 man roster and make hard decisions every year. Some years are going to be tougher than others. However... let's look at what transpired last year. 

Steer, E-Strand, Majjar to the Reds for Mahle

Only Steer had to be placed on a 40 man roster in the off-season. 

Cano, Povich, Nunez and Rojas to the Orioles for Pablo Lopez

Only Cano needed a 40 man roster spot. 

Gibson-Long to the Tigers for Fulmer. 

Sawyer did not need to be added to the 40 man roster. 

So they cleared two 40 man roster spots and in the off-season added 65 million in vet players to the roster in the form of Correa, Solano, Vazquez, Gallo Taylor and Farmer.

Also please strongly consider that the Twins added Lopez, Mahle and Fulmer at the deadline last year. Lopez and Mahle both had an extra year on their contracts so they paid a higher price for those two and I'll go ahead and assume that extra year was important as the team set up for THIS YEAR to go along with the 65 million dollars in addition. 

Also please strongly consider that the Twins added at the deadline last year to support the club with Bundy and Archer anchored in the rotation. Yet this year... the front office with the best rotation we have had in a long long long time consisting of Lopez, Gray, Ryan, Ober, Maeda, Varland, Kuechel... and the theory being floated was that there is no need to support this pitching staff because it isn't going to make a difference in the playoffs anyway... yet last year... Bundy and Archer were deserving of support.  

Sorry... I'm not buying it. 

Buyers Buy and Seller sell. We were buyers this year that didn't buy. The only benefit of the doubt that I can give them is this: 

The prices were too high. 

[Riverbrian]

49 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Woof,  the info is out there 

https://franchisesports.co.uk/preseason-world-series-odds-2023/

We were a longer shot on betting odds than both Cleveland and White Sox.   Not by a huge amount,  but its there.  Show some countering data if you disagree.   

Projections are not a reason to act or not act.

Where were the Padres, Mets, Cardinals and Yankees projected? Where were the Cubs, Reds and D-Backs projected? 

The question is rhetorical because the answer doesn't matter. 

Whatever projections you have can be easily countered with the actual standings in late July.  

[KirbyDome89]

5 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

I did some calculations based on how the Twins have done this season against each of the three AL divisions. The results: If we were in the East we would finish the season with two fewer wins. If we were in the West we would finish the season with one more win. So, as you can now see, the strength of schedule is of minimal consequence. This proves what I said, that the overwhelming advantage of being in the Central is the lower number of wins required to win the division, not the strength of schedule as you said.

Or it proves the calculations are flawed, or at minimum lacking context. 

[KirbyDome89]

4 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

The average consensus of non Twins fans was this was a team that would finish 3rd in its division.  The average consensus was 78-82.  The average Twinsdaily projection was mid eighties.  Kirby - the twins are only +4 within the division.  So maybe they would be knocked down 1-2 to more wins if in another division.  As of now they make the playoffs because they are in the Central.  However it would not surprise me if they go on a bit of a run here. 

Your mid tier RP and RH bat would make a 1-2 at most 4 game difference.  This teams is still not on par with a Braves, Texas, or Baltimore lineup.    Now that doesn't mean they can't catch lightning in a bottle but the moves you are talking about are just window dressing.  They do those moves,  you lose this shiny object to be upset about but most likely you will find something else.   

In order to be on the level of a Baltimore Texas Atlanta you would have had to put a significant amount of chips in.  So effectively you are happy with the team (maybe 1-2 games difference) with your suggestions,  or you still think we are not a WS contender.  Now just being in the playoffs gives you a chip and a chair,  but I do think the Twins have enough pieces to create some magic this year.  its not something I am counting on, but something I could see occurring.  

This isn't a difficult concept. Adding a solid guy to the middle of the pen pushes the back end fodder further down or out. Instead of Dylan Floro imploding in the 6th innings of a tight game, you've got a better option. Whatever hypothetical win total that deadline addition is worth over 60 games is pretty much irrelevant. You're adding that piece to strengthen the bridge from starter to Duran in October. 

Is everybody else "upset," or are you defending a rather indefensible position?

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

8 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

This isn't a difficult concept. Adding a solid guy to the middle of the pen pushes the back end fodder further down or out. Instead of Dylan Floro imploding in the 6th innings of a tight game, you've got a better option. Whatever hypothetical win total that deadline addition is worth over 60 games is pretty much irrelevant. You're adding that piece to strengthen the bridge from starter to Duran in October. 

Is everybody else "upset," or are you defending a rather indefensible position?

Its all hypothetical,  you are under the impression you will find someone that will be better than Floro,  and will stay healthy. I am of the opinion we will have internal options that will allow us to drop Floro by the end of the season.  Look at the Jets with Rodgers,  even the best laid plans can go awry in a hurry.  My stance is no one we could have legitimately picked up makes us a WS contender.  Unless you can prove otherwise that is my stance.  Using prospect capital for what was likely overinflated prospects, judging by other teams inaction as well (Yankees)  shows it was most likely in the Twins best interest to stand pat,  and the team has rewarded the front office by winning the division most likely.  I like this version of the team and the one that will likely be out there in the postseason.  

[KirbyDome89]

34 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Its all hypothetical,  you are under the impression you will find someone that will be better than Floro,  and will stay healthy. I am of the opinion we will have internal options that will allow us to drop Floro by the end of the season.  Look at the Jets with Rodgers,  even the best laid plans can go awry in a hurry.  My stance is no one we could have legitimately picked up makes us a WS contender.  Unless you can prove otherwise that is my stance.  Using prospect capital for what was likely overinflated prospects, judging by other teams inaction as well (Yankees)  shows it was most likely in the Twins best interest to stand pat,  and the team has rewarded the front office by winning the division most likely.  I like this version of the team and the one that will likely be out there in the postseason.  

Upgrading from Floro (or any of the 4-8 group) wasn't/isn't hypothetical. There were actual, solid arms, i.e. better arms, available and the Twins passed. Internal options are the only options at this point, so yes, that has to be the route. 

I can't stress this enough; NOBODY is arguing that any of the desired deadline moves instantly make the Twins a strong WS contender. Let that go. 

The Twins should be copying a sinking team at the deadline? What? MN won the division because they stood pat? The bullpen being one of the worst in baseball in the 2nd half is a positive now? We're spiraling here....

 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

27 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Upgrading from Floro (or any of the 4-8 group) wasn't/isn't hypothetical. There were actual, solid arms, i.e. better arms, available and the Twins passed. Internal options are the only options at this point, so yes, that has to be the route. 

I can't stress this enough; NOBODY is arguing that any of the desired deadline moves instantly make the Twins a strong WS contender. Let that go. 

The Twins should be copying a sinking team at the deadline? What? MN won the division because they stood pat? The bullpen being one of the worst in baseball in the 2nd half is a positive now? We're spiraling here....

 

In my opinion the Twins should have sold last year rather than bought,  or do a buy and sell strategy similar to what Guardians did this year.  How exactly is the bullpen spiraling.  The bullpen has 2-3 blowups in the 2nd half that has bloated their ERA.  Today 5 innings 1 run.  They did their job,  just not in crunch time.  

[USAFChief]

23 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

 They (bullpen) did their job,  just not in crunch time.  

Heh.

"Well, yeah, I guess, but other than that, what did you think of the play, Mrs Lincoln?"

[laloesch]

5 hours ago, Woof Bronzer said:

🤣😂😂🤣😂

Have a good day sir.  It's been...interesting.  

 

5 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

https://www.justbaseball.com/betting/2023-mlb-win-total-projections-early-over-under-picks/   77.5

HONESTLY, I don't know why you two are still arguing about this.  It's a moot point now.  The Twins did better than was projected (slightly) and everyone should be happy with that.  Don't get me wrong I would really like to see them finally win a playoff series in the first time in a gazillion years, but one thing at a time.  They still have issues with the bullpen, which I had really hoped they would have been able to strengthen at the trade deadline, but weren't able to i guess. 

Still they've done better than I had expected especially with a down year from Correa and a disastrous season from Buxton.  Imagine how good this team could have been with those two playing at their potentials.  I was most impressed by the progress of the starting pitching and what I've seen so far from Royce Lewis.  That kid is a stud and hopefully he can stay healthy because he has the potential to be something special. 

Like I said earlier, they have some things that need to be addressed in the coming offseason, but first let's finish off the season strong and try and do SOMETHING, ANYTHING in the playoffs.  Cheers.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

31 minutes ago, laloesch said:

 

HONESTLY, I don't know why you two are still arguing about this.  It's a moot point now.  The Twins did better than was projected (slightly) and everyone should be happy with that.  Don't get me wrong I would really like to see them finally win a playoff series in the first time in a gazillion years, but one thing at a time.  They still have issues with the bullpen, which I had really hoped they would have been able to strengthen at the trade deadline, but weren't able to i guess. 

Still they've done better than I had expected especially with a down year from Correa and a disastrous season from Buxton.  Imagine how good this team could have been with those two playing at their potentials.  I was most impressed by the progress of the starting pitching and what I've seen so far from Royce Lewis.  That kid is a stud and hopefully he can stay healthy because he has the potential to be something special. 

Like I said earlier, they have some things that need to be addressed in the coming offseason, but first let's finish off the season strong and try and do SOMETHING, ANYTHING in the playoffs.  Cheers.

Don't think anyone has talked about it in 4hours  LOL