Through 48 games, nothing has changed.

[golfboy1]

Yes, but unless I screwed up the math we're only on pace to win about 2 more games.

 

Hang in there, eventually we are going to get to play the Astro's.

[Oxtung]

At 23 and after 48 games he's labelled as "average"? Sure, he's struggled but don't you think that assessment is a bit premature? He's flashed some power, is becoming steadier in CF and seems to at least have some kind of clue from the right side.

 

In the last 50 years there have been 21 players that have OPS'd <.511 in their rookie seasons. Of those players 4 were above replacement level for their careers. Most only lasted 1 or 2 years. The "headliner" of this group is Brandon Inge with a career WAR of 15.7 (FG).

 

Hicks' season is not over and everybody certainly hopes that he improves his batting and there are some reasons to think he might, his babip is a paltry .188 where as most on the list were in the .230-.250 range. However, at his current level he doesn't even project to be an average player.

 

A scary thought. Of the 21 players that debuted to an OPS <.511 four were Twins. Luis Gomez in 1974, Houston Jimenez in 1984, Danny Thompson in 1970 and Hicks.

[TheLeviathan]

I thought at the start of the year we would end up in the mid-to-upper 70s in wins. I still feel that way. We've just been through a 10-game losing streak that knocked the pace down a bit - before that we were playing .500 ball. I suspect the final reality will be in between the two. The rotation will not remain as bad as it has been - the hitting will not remain as bad as it has been.

 

Given our offensive and defensive numbers, our current record is far more accurate for our play. And while your sentiment of "it has to get better" can be appreciated, we heard that all offseason too. Yet, here we are two months in and still saying it. Call me skeptical.

[jokin]

Hang in there, eventually we are going to get to play the Astro's.

 

6 with the Astros....And the Brewers, Marlins, Mets and Phillies. These remaining block of games against weak competition can skew the Twins W-L record towards giving some folks false hope.

[jokin]

Given our offensive and defensive numbers, our current record is far more accurate for our play. And while your sentiment of "it has to get better" can be appreciated, we heard that all offseason too. Yet, here we are two months in and still saying it. Call me skeptical.

 

I'm skeptical, as well. Especially when the 2nd Baseman with the .197 BA and .238 OBP and his 45 foot single yesterday, is back in, high up in the batting order once again tonight, batting Second? Why?

 

Gardy is apparently reasserting his old stubborn self, let's see if he also permanently reinstates the 3 catcher look- works great if you're the Braves, here, not to much.

[Winston Smith]

On the bright side we shouldn't finish last in the AL for the third year in a row with the Astros in the league.

[gunnarthor]

On the bright side we shouldn't finish last in the AL for the third year in a row with the Astros in the league.

 

Actually, I think that's a bad thing. Apparently there's an uber-stud pitching prospect next year that would go #1 overall right now if eligible. I'd rather lose 4 more games and draft higher.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Aaron Hicks has a .737 OPS over the past seven days and a .651 OPS over the past 28 days.

 

He's up and down, just like most rookies. No one in their right mind expected him to be Mike Trout out of the gate.

 

His overall season OPS is .510 and continues to trend upward.

 

Yeah, he sucks against righties. That was expected, really. He's had career issues against RHP. He also made the jump from AA straight to the Majors.

 

In short, making any broad-sweeping statements about Aaron Hicks is premature. He looked bad, now he looks better. He could be average, he could easily be an .800 OPS player as soon as next season. I haven't seen a single reason to change my opinion on him as a player.

[Brock Beauchamp]

In the last 50 years there have been 21 players that have OPS'd <.511 in their rookie seasons. of those players were above replacement level for careers. most only lasted or years. the this group is brandon inge with a career war>

 

Hicks' season is not over and everybody certainly hopes that he improves his batting and there are some reasons to think he might, his babip is a paltry .188 where as most on the list were in the .230-.250 range. However, at his current level he doesn't even project to be an average player.

 

That's all great, except for one thing:

 

It's May 28th.

 

A month ago, Hicks was OPSing at what, .400? .300?

[Mike Sixel]

Me neither, but then, I thought for two years he should not be a SH......so nothing really has changed for me, other than he's less ready than I thought. That's really the biggest change for me....actually, he's been worse on defense than I thought also.

[drjim]

6 with the Astros....And the Brewers, Marlins, Mets and Phillies. These remaining block of games against weak competition can skew the Twins W-L record towards giving some folks false hope.

 

So if they lose it is a true reflection of talent and if they win it is false hope?

 

Yes they should do better against bad teams but they also just got beat up by 3 of 4-5 best teams in baseball. It evens out.

[Willihammer]

Yeah, he sucks against righties. That was expected, really. He's had career issues against RHP. He also made the jump from AA straight to the Majors.

 

In short, making any broad-sweeping statements about Aaron Hicks is premature. He looked bad, now he looks better. He could be average, he could easily be an .800 OPS player as soon as next season. I haven't seen a single reason to change my opinion on him as a player.

A guy who can't hit 2/3 of all pitchers? He would have to either be platooned or hit lefties for a 1.200 to end up at .800 overall.

 

Its still too early to conclude about his splits. They won't stabilize till 600 PAs at the earliest for his strong side and about 2000 for his weak side.

 

But if the early returns are any indication, and this has been a known weakness for some time, that is not good.

[jokin]

So if they lose it is a true reflection of talent and if they win it is false hope?

 

Yes they should do better against bad teams but they also just got beat up by 3 of 4-5 best teams in baseball. It evens out.

 

I didn't say what you said I did. Using an absurdist extreme to make your point- simply doesn't make your point

 

I did say that their schedule is demonstrably easier this year, playing 6 games with the Astros, plus drawing some of the weakest NL teams on their schedule. That makes it pretty easy to show that their W-L record will likely be skewed and conclusions about the team should reflect as such.

[Brock Beauchamp]

A guy who can't hit 2/3 of all pitchers? He would have to either be platooned or hit lefties for a 1.200 to end up at .800 overall.

 

Its still too early to conclude about his splits. They won't stabilize till 600 PAs at the earliest for his strong side and about 2000 for his weak side.

 

But if the early returns are any indication, and this has been a known weakness for some time, that is not good.

 

My point is that he adjusted to AA pitching and managed to hit righties. There's absolutely no reason to write him off after 150 MLB at-bats.

 

Honestly, this thread kinda makes me want to smash my face into the desk. I expect a little more in the way of patience from the TD crowd. Guess what? Justin Morneau was pretty awful early in his career. So was Michael Cuddyer. Aaaaaand Jason Kubel. None of them were as bad as Hicks but they all had some pretty ugly stretches of play before figuring it out.

 

This isn't aimed at you, Willinghammer... Just the thread in general. I expect RubeChat posters to rail on players for struggling in their first 100 PAs (in between smashing beercans on their heads and yelling about football season). I expect better from Twins Daily posters, who should know that often, rookies look really bad for the first few months of their career. Sometimes, they even look bad for an entire season. In the case of Cuddyer, he was jerked around and looked pretty bad for parts of three seasons.

[jokin]

 

 

 

This isn't aimed at you, Willinghammer... Just the thread in general. I expect RubeChat posters to rail on players for struggling in their first 100 PAs (in between smashing beercans on their heads and yelling about football season). I expect better from Twins Daily posters,

 

Easily one of the best paragraphs ever posted on TD by a staffer.

[gunnarthor]

I didn't say what you said I did. Using an absurdist extreme to make your point- simply doesn't make your point

 

I did say that their schedule is demonstrably easier this year, playing 6 games with the Astros, plus drawing some of the weakest NL teams on their schedule. That makes it pretty easy to show that their W-L record will likely be skewed and conclusions about the team should reflect as such.

 

You are way over rating a handful of games. Neyer published a study on the difference of imbalanced schedules and it's minute. Maybe 1 or 2 games over a full season. If the Twins are a true .400 team and they play 6 games against a true .500 team instead of 6 games against a true .550 team, there really isn't much difference. Health and individual starters have a much bigger impact on a handful of selected games than generalized team strength.

[jokin]

You are way over rating a handful of games. Neyer published a study on the difference of imbalanced schedules and it's minute. Maybe 1 or 2 games over a full season. If the Twins are a true .400 team and they play 6 games against a true .500 team instead of 6 games against a true .550 team, there really isn't much difference. Health and individual starters have a much bigger impact on a handful of selected games than generalized team strength.

 

Except you don't take into account the MN Twins specifically, and the American League in general, recent dominance of NL teams, this has been ongoing since 2002. And playing many of the NL dregs this season only intensifies the likelihood of the continuation of that trend. The sample I am using for this year is more than 6 games, this year there are 6 additional games added to an already-established trend of NL vs. Twins outcomes.

[jokin]

You are way over rating a handful of games. Neyer published a study on the difference of imbalanced schedules and it's minute. Maybe 1 or 2 games over a full season. If the Twins are a true .400 team and they play 6 games against a true .500 team instead of 6 games against a true .550 team, there really isn't much difference. Health and individual starters have a much bigger impact on a handful of selected games than generalized team strength.

 

How did Neyer's study go with the differences of playing 6 games and 4 games against 2 true .275 teams?

[stringer bell]

Schedule, smedule! The Twins already lost a game to the Marlins at home. They'll be lucky to get 2 of 4 from the beat up and not that good Brewers and the Astros might play their best baseball of the year when they face the Twins are win three or four of the six. My take is this club is playing slightly better than last year's edition and that they have less talent on the field. Injuries and the trade deadline will determine the record. Progress or lack thereof from the likes of Dozier, Parmelee, Florimon, and Plouffe as well as the development or lack thereof from the rookies Arcia, Gibson, and Hicks will determine how much progress, if any, the club has made.

[fairweather]

Change is bad um K.

[fairweather]

Changing managers is bad. Changing Hicks from a switch hitter to his natural side RHB is bad. Changing GM's is really bad. Changing organizational philosophies toward pitching is bad. Changing the way we evaluate players and their stats is bad. IT'S ALL BAD

[gunnarthor]

Except you don't take into account the MN Twins specifically, and the American League in general, recent dominance of NL teams, this has been ongoing since 2002. And playing many of the NL dregs this season only intensifies the likelihood of the continuation of that trend. The sample I am using for this year is more than 6 games, this year there are 6 additional games added to an already-established trend of NL vs. Twins outcomes.

 

Twins went 9-9 in interleague play last year (and their pyth w/l record was actually worse). They were 57-87 against the AL for a .395 winning percentage. Assuming that was their true talent level, then, over the 162 game season, interleague gave them less than 2 more wins then they should have, not adjusting for opponent strength.

 

The difference between last years interleague opponents and this years is a .059 winning percentage, meaning the Twins (not adjusting for their true value) would win one extra game due to interleague scheduling.

 

Additionally, the Twins had losing interleague records in 2010 and 2011 before hitting .500 last year.

[Mike Sixel]

Changing managers is bad. Changing Hicks from a switch hitter to his natural side RHB is bad. Changing GM's is really bad. Changing organizational philosophies toward pitching is bad. Changing the way we evaluate players and their stats is bad. IT'S ALL BAD

 

I don't know how much I agree with or not, but I like this post.....

[jokin]

Schedule, smedule! The Twins already lost a game to the Marlins at home. They'll be lucky to get 2 of 4 from the beat up and not that good Brewers and the Astros might play their best baseball of the year when they face the Twins are win three or four of the six. My take is this club is playing slightly better than last year's edition and that they have less talent on the field. Injuries and the trade deadline will determine the record. Progress or lack thereof from the likes of Dozier, Parmelee, Florimon, and Plouffe as well as the development or lack thereof from the rookies Arcia, Gibson, and Hicks will determine how much progress, if any, the club has made.

 

Their .417 winning percentage puts the team to a projected 67.5 wins, so your characterization of "slightly better" is ironically apt. The coming sell mode assures that the weaker lineup gives them little hope of being appreciably better than last year.

 

Going back to the schedule, does anyone dispute that the Twins good W-L records in the 00s was largely dependent on playing large numbers of games against bad Tiger, Royal and Indian teams? As far as this year goes, the Twins picked up 6 extra games with a .288 team and 4 with a .255 team, plus drawing 10 more NL games from teams in the .380 range like Milwaukee and NY. Can anyone argue that they don't have a better chance in those games than playing more games with .500 teams or especially if they had drawn teams more closely resembling the Cardinals, Yankees and Rangers?

[gunnarthor]

How did Neyer's study go with the differences of playing 6 games and 4 games against 2 true .275 teams?

 

Well, those two bad teams would be expected to still win 3 out of 10 in general. But 4 or so if their opponent was a true .400 team.

[Willihammer]

My point is that he adjusted to AA pitching and managed to hit righties. There's absolutely no reason to write him off after 150 MLB at-bats.

 

Honestly, this thread kinda makes me want to smash my face into the desk. I expect a little more in the way of patience from the TD crowd. Guess what? Justin Morneau was pretty awful early in his career. So was Michael Cuddyer. Aaaaaand Jason Kubel. None of them were as bad as Hicks but they all had some pretty ugly stretches of play before figuring it out.

 

This isn't aimed at you, Willinghammer... Just the thread in general. I expect RubeChat posters to rail on players for struggling in their first 100 PAs (in between smashing beercans on their heads and yelling about football season). I expect better from Twins Daily posters, who should know that often, rookies look really bad for the first few months of their career. Sometimes, they even look bad for an entire season. In the case of Cuddyer, he was jerked around and looked pretty bad for parts of three seasons.

 

I suspect some of the disappointment is caused by TDers inflating their expectations of prospects all the time. From what I have read over the past year, Aaron Hicks was supposed to be the 2nd coming of Kirby Puckett. He could hardly live up to those expectations no matter what.

 

As to the splits, its not entirely fair to say he's struggled in "only" 150 PAs. Among all the accolades in the minor league reports since I've visited this site have been muted cautions about this very thing - his weaker left side.

 

Obviously he's nowhere near settling into a reliable triple slash or OPS for the season at the MLB level, much less his career. But the early returns raise the unsettling possibility that just maybe we were all understating just how weak his weak side might be.

 

For 2013 though, its not too early to make some judgments based off 150 PAs about contact and batted ball tendencies. And obviously Hicks has been terrible so far in those respects.

 

I'm actually going to blog about these early stats for the whole team, if Parmelee and Dozier ever get to 150 PAs.

 

* Teaser: want to be depressed? Go to fangraphs batting leaderboards, click the batted ball tab. Sort by line drive rate (Ascending order).

[jokin]

Twins went 9-9 in interleague play last year (and their pyth w/l record was actually worse). They were 57-87 against the AL for a .395 winning percentage. Assuming that was their true talent level, then, over the 162 game season, interleague gave them less than 2 more wins then they should have, not adjusting for opponent strength.

 

The difference between last years interleague opponents and this years is a .059 winning percentage, meaning the Twins (not adjusting for their true value) would win one extra game due to interleague scheduling.

 

.

 

OK then, they may as well not play 2 teams with a .275 record, just schedule all of those games with the Rangers, Cardinals and Yankees. Yes, the Twins were slightly under .500 in 10 and 11, they didn't have NL .275 teams on their schedule (however, they did clean up on NL teams, as a rule, more often during the 00s), but the AL as a whole has a larger sample size of superiority and this has held over 10 years- indicative that their should be an aggregate improvement in W-L per AL team over NL counterparts adding 6 Astro games to the Twins schedule and playing more weaker NL teams should only enhance the possibility of increasing on that trend and skewing the Twins final W-L record up.

 

I would think that the Twins 9-9 in interleague play in 2012 is demonstrative of the advantage of playing the NL when you draw the weaker teams of the league- given how weak the Twins were. Now you add 6 more games with the Astros, according to your theory that now should add another win, "not adjusting for opponent strength". I would think that adjusting for opponentsLACK OF STRENGTH enhances my argument even further, perhaps yet another win or two. And that confirms what I was saying originally.

 

Going over to the NFL in closing, in their search for "competitive balance", is their approach of granting the easiest schedules to the previous year's weaker teams a complete fools errand under your scenario?

[ashbury]

Again, I didn't say get rid of him

 

You didn't? My reply was a reply-to-a-reply where you said "but Hicks, I'm about ready to write off."

 

I don't expect anyone to maintain complete consistency from week to week, and I change my mind as well; but within one thread I would at least hope for a static point of view, else there is no point in engaging my brother in conversation.

[Oxtung]

My point is that he adjusted to AA pitching and managed to hit righties. There's absolutely no reason to write him off after 150 MLB at-bats.

 

Honestly, this thread kinda makes me want to smash my face into the desk. I expect a little more in the way of patience from the TD crowd. Guess what? Justin Morneau was pretty awful early in his career. So was Michael Cuddyer. Aaaaaand Jason Kubel. None of them were as bad as Hicks but they all had some pretty ugly stretches of play before figuring it out.

 

This isn't aimed at you, Willinghammer... Just the thread in general. I expect RubeChat posters to rail on players for struggling in their first 100 PAs (in between smashing beercans on their heads and yelling about football season). I expect better from Twins Daily posters, who should know that often, rookies look really bad for the first few months of their career. Sometimes, they even look bad for an entire season. In the case of Cuddyer, he was jerked around and looked pretty bad for parts of three seasons.

 

That's all great, except for one thing:

 

It's May 28th.

 

A month ago, Hicks was OPSing at what, .400? .300?

 

I think you must have misread my post. I specifically said there was still much of the season left. I mentioned his absurdly low babip even in comparison to the other abysmal hitters.

 

None of that changes the fact that right now his OPS is .510. Should I try and divine his final OPS of the season? Or should I just not supply background information to help put his season in context?

[stringer bell]

As for Hicks hitting only righthanded, attempting such a project after investing five years in the minors strikes me as more desperate than the Twins should be. Yes, he has a better swing righty, but there are huge advantages to being a switch hitter and hitting lefty against righthanded pitchers. As Brock pointed out, Hicks' history is to struggle, then catch up and this seemed to be the case especially for hitting lefthanded. I still think Hicks needs some AAA time, but for him to give up hitting lefthanded at this point would be pretty drastic.