Twins 0, Tigers 3: Twins Offense Fails to Show up in Detroit Series Finale

[Woof Bronzer]

24 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

The argument against "clutch hitting" isn't that everyone would perform the same with a large enough sample size, it's that they perform to their "non-clutch" norms.

To me, getting a runner home from 3rd with less than 2 outs is different than clutch hitting.  That's just situational awareness and fundamentally sound baseball, and this org seems to have little interest in either.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

To me, getting a runner home from 3rd with less than 2 outs is different than clutch hitting.  That's just situational awareness and fundamentally sound baseball, and this org seems to have little interest in either.

To me, they're just a severely flawed lineup that lacks the skills necessary to succeed on a regular basis. I don't think it's shocking to anyone that a number of these guys strike out often, or aren't everyday players. Not sure why we'd then be shocked that they strike out often with guys on 3rd and less than 2 outs, or aren't able to drive in runs at a high rate. They're not a good lineup. Especially when Kirilloff and Lewis are hurt, Buxton and Correa are having horrid years, and Polanco has been in and out of the lineup. Are we surprised they're not a great offensive team when Castro, Solano, Taylor, Gallo, and Farmer are all in their top 8 in PAs this year? That's a lot of part time players getting fulltime run. Of course they're inconsistent.

They're worst in the league at getting guys to 3rd with less than 2 outs in the first place. If they can't even get guys there why are we surprised they're not good when they finally do? To me, they're just a bad lineup. So, as the argument against clutch hitting would say, they're bad in clutch situations as well. Bad hitters hitting bad in clutch situations shouldn't be surprising. 

[Woof Bronzer]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

They're worst in the league at getting guys to 3rd with less than 2 outs in the first place. If they can't even get guys there why are we surprised they're not good when they finally do? To me, they're just a bad lineup. So, as the argument against clutch hitting would say, they're bad in clutch situations as well. Bad hitters hitting bad in clutch situations shouldn't be surprising. 

I hear you...but with a guy on 3rd and less than 2 outs you don't even need a hit!  Any hitter who has reached the major should be able to hit a fly ball, that's not a specialized skill that only certain hitters can manage.  Like, say, hitting home runs.  You'd think with a talent-deficient roster the team would emphasize the little things, scratching and clawing for any run they can get.  Instead they seem to teach every hitter to swing for the fences every at bat regardless of situation.  It's baffling.  

[chpettit19]

46 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

I hear you...but with a guy on 3rd and less than 2 outs you don't even need a hit!  Any hitter who has reached the major should be able to hit a fly ball, that's not a specialized skill that only certain hitters can manage.  Like, say, hitting home runs.  You'd think with a talent-deficient roster the team would emphasize the little things, scratching and clawing for any run they can get.  Instead they seem to teach every hitter to swing for the fences every at bat regardless of situation.  It's baffling.  

They can all hit flyballs, yes. But league average for driving in the runner from 3rd with less than 2 outs is 50.4%. The Twins currently have a 47.3% success rate in that situation. I'd argue that this lineup is at least 3% worse than average. So they're succeeding at their talent level. Fans make it sound like these guys should be succeeding near 100% at this. The guys on the mound get paid, too. It's not that easy to just hit a fly ball and score the run. We can be as disappointed as we want with the Twins, but the rest of the league is only succeeding 50% of the time anyways. It's not that easy.

And I don't agree that they teach every hitter to swing for the fences every at bat regardless of the situation. I think that's a dramatic exaggeration fans use because they're frustrated. Jeffers isn't doing that. Vazquez isn't. Farmer isn't. Julien isn't. Polanco isn't. Solano definitely isn't. Castro isn't. Kepler isn't. Luplow isn't. That's 9 guys on the current roster that aren't doing that at all. Lewis and Kirilloff don't do it. Larnach doesn't do it. Not Miranda style (although he got a little power happy this year I think). I get that we have a need to blame someone, and look for reasons why things aren't happening. As fans we also want to have faith that are team can be good (otherwise why cheer for them?). But the reality of the situation is that many of these hitters simply aren't that good. Not every strike out, or failed AB is because they're trying to hit HRs.

League average pull rate is 38.7%. Twins are at 39.7%. They aren't trying to pull and launch everything. Not that it'd be terrible if they were as the Braves are currently at 41.1% and I think we'd all be ok with this team having a Braves type offense. League average oppo rate is 24.9%. Twins are at 24.7%. All stats according to Baseball Savant, btw. They aren't doing anything crazy. They're just not very good (compared to other major league lineups) at hitting the ball well. And many of us voiced concerns about that coming into the season. When you add the 2 guys everyone was counting on having abysmal seasons it accounts for all these numbers easily.

[David Maro]

Here's a tip for who ever is at bat with men on the corners with no outs or 1 out PUT the ball in play. The game is called baseball,not homerun or strike out. Probably will be going to the playoffs by default playing a wildcard team with a better record than them. Which means losing out in the first round. If I were Maeda I would tell the FO no thank you I will be moving on at the end of the season.

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

They can all hit flyballs, yes. But league average for driving in the runner from 3rd with less than 2 outs is 50.4%. The Twins currently have a 47.3% success rate in that situation. I'd argue that this lineup is at least 3% worse than average. So they're succeeding at their talent level. Fans make it sound like these guys should be succeeding near 100% at this. The guys on the mound get paid, too. It's not that easy to just hit a fly ball and score the run. We can be as disappointed as we want with the Twins, but the rest of the league is only succeeding 50% of the time anyways. It's not that easy.

And I don't agree that they teach every hitter to swing for the fences every at bat regardless of the situation. I think that's a dramatic exaggeration fans use because they're frustrated. Jeffers isn't doing that. Vazquez isn't. Farmer isn't. Julien isn't. Polanco isn't. Solano definitely isn't. Castro isn't. Kepler isn't. Luplow isn't. That's 9 guys on the current roster that aren't doing that at all. Lewis and Kirilloff don't do it. Larnach doesn't do it. Not Miranda style (although he got a little power happy this year I think). I get that we have a need to blame someone, and look for reasons why things aren't happening. As fans we also want to have faith that are team can be good (otherwise why cheer for them?). But the reality of the situation is that many of these hitters simply aren't that good. Not every strike out, or failed AB is because they're trying to hit HRs.

League average pull rate is 38.7%. Twins are at 39.7%. They aren't trying to pull and launch everything. Not that it'd be terrible if they were as the Braves are currently at 41.1% and I think we'd all be ok with this team having a Braves type offense. League average oppo rate is 24.9%. Twins are at 24.7%. All stats according to Baseball Savant, btw. They aren't doing anything crazy. They're just not very good (compared to other major league lineups) at hitting the ball well. And many of us voiced concerns about that coming into the season. When you add the 2 guys everyone was counting on having abysmal seasons it accounts for all these numbers easily.

There you go wrecking a good emotional argument with the facts.  😄

[insagt1]

I'm sorry I brought this up..seriously. My head is exploding with all the percentages, stats etc. None of the 'clutch hitter' stuff would have been debated like this before the metrics march to madness arrived on the scene and turned baseball from a game to a study project. (here is where I get blasted to high heaven...old man get with the program!😄)

I guess watching the way the Astros handled their AB's intrigued me because nobody else this season was that good at it. Altuve's hit was a bloop...so I wont count that as 'pulled' in the sense that we think of it. The hit to the wall in center was straight up the middle. The HR came after Tucker worked his behind off, fouling I believe 4 straight after an 0-2 count. Perhaps we often exaggerate that 'all' the Twins are swinging for the fences instead of trying to go with a pitch or shorten a swing or even lay one down. But some of the players that were listed as never doing it, do actually do it from time to time don't they? Anyway, if you aren't hitting it over the fence...and you are trying to stay in 1st place, you have to get those runners in from 3rd and 2nd.

Probably we aren't that good. Our lineup is flawed. And the guys we were depending on are having poor seasons. All of them. no one is picking the other guy up consistently enough to stay 6 games over .500 when they get there. And even the almighty stats can't always tell the whole story. A guy can go 1-5 a lot...but if that 1 is a 9th inning game winning HR, is anyone complaining. A guy can fail to bring home the runner from 3rd twice in a game, but if he succeeds once and its a game winning RBI who cares about the stats. A guy could hit 3 HR's in a game...but if they are all solo shots in a blowout, either way, how valuable is it? Thats why this game is so great. The human element can confound or elate. And its unpredictable from game to game. If you help your team win, I guess thats all that ultimately matters.

Anyway I won't bring up clutch hitting again. its not worth it.