Minnesota Twins 2022 Draft Retrospective: Promising Early Results

[Cody Christie]

The 2022 MLB Draft was less than 12 months ago, meaning the drafted players have only begun their professional careers. Are there any standouts among last year's draft?

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

Major League Baseball's 2023 Draft is scheduled to start on July 9, 2023. Each team prepares for the draft with a specific plan, and sometimes those plans play out better than others. To prepare fans for the upcoming draft, this series will examine recent Twins drafts and how those players have performed so far in their professional careers.

First Round: Brooks Lee
The Twins were ecstatic that Lee fell to them with the eighth overall selection, especially since many pre-draft prognostications had him off the board before their pick. Evaluators viewed Lee as the most advanced college bat in the draft, and the Twins were aggressive with him during his professional debut. In 31 games, he hit .303/.389/.451 (.839) with six doubles and four home runs while splitting time between three levels. He finished the season as a starter in the Double-A line-up, including helping Wichita in the Texas League Championship Series. The Twins sent Lee back to Double-A for the 2023 season, where he has posted a .773 OPS including 23 doubles and four home runs through 57 games. He was a consensus top 50 prospect entering the season, so it will be interesting to see how he can improve in the second half. 

Second Round: Connor Prielipp, Tanner Schobel
Prielipp was in the conversation for the first overall pick before suffering an elbow injury in college and having Tommy John surgery. Minnesota delayed his professional debut until the 2023 season. During spring, his pitching arm had some inflammation and soreness, so the Twins were taking it slow with him. Unfortunately, he's been limited to two professional starts after being diagnosed with a forearm strain. The plan is to have him start a throwing program at the team's facilities in Fort Myers before beginning rehab outings with the organization's rookie league teams. Prielipp might have the highest ceiling of any pitching prospect in the organization, but he needs to be healthy to move up the ladder. 

Schobel played collegiately in the ACC, so the Twins weren't afraid to be aggressive with him during his pro debut. He got his feet wet in the FCL (four games) before finishing the season on the Fort Myers roster. In 32 games, he hit .237/.353/.298 (.651) with five extra-base hits and a 26-to-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His first full season started in the Midwest League, where he is slightly younger than the average age of the competition. He's splitting time between second and third base while posting a .749 OPS with 16 extra-base hits through 58 games. 

The Twins didn't have a third-round pick in 2022 because the team had to forfeit their selection after signing Carlos Correa. Houston received a compensatory pick in the 2022 draft since they tendered the qualifying offer to Correa following the 2021 campaign. Minnesota's first three picks were protected, so they surrendered their fourth pick. 

Fourth Round: Andrew Morris
Morris entered college as a 17-year-old and pitched his first three seasons at Division II Mesa State in Colorado. In 2022, he transferred to Texas Tech, where he posted a 4.58 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and 91 strikeouts in 88 1/3 innings. Last season, Minnesota only had him make one FCL appearance after signing with the organization. He also made an appearance for the Mighty Mussels in the playoffs. In 2023, he's made six appearances (five starts) for the Mighty Mussels while allowing 12 earned runs on 26 hits with a 10.4 K/9 in 26 innings. 

Other Prospects Still in the Organization

• Ben Ross (5th Round): Ross posted a .817 OPS in 24 Low-A games during his professional debut. He's played the 2023 season in Cedar Rapids, hitting .239/.307/.424 (.732). Defensively, he's played six different positions. 
• Jorel Ortega (6th Round): Saw limited action (3 games) after signing last season due to breaking his wrist in his first Mussels at-bat. In 2023, he's posted an .876 OPS at Low-A while splitting time between third base and shortstop. 
• Kyle Jones (7th Round): He made two scoreless appearances near the end of the 2022 season. Minnesota sent him to Cedar Rapids for the 2023 campaign. He has a 4.47 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP and a 43-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 11 appearances. 
• Zebby Matthews (8th Round): Matthews posted a 2.56 ERA with a 0.93 WHIP and 12.3 K/9 in eight Low-A appearances to begin 2023. The Twins promoted him to High-A at the beginning of June, where he had one bad start (8 ER) and two starts of six innings while allowing one earned run or fewer. 
• Cory Lewis (9th Round): Lewis has been outstanding during his professional debut. In his first 11 starts (39 1/3 innings), he has limited batters to a .174 BA and a 72-to-18 strikeout-to-walk ratio. People want to talk about his knuckleball but he has a full repertoire of pitches to keep batters off balance. Lewis is over a year younger than the average age of the competition in the Midwest League since his most recent promotion. 
• Dalton Shuffield (10th Round): He played parts of five college seasons because of the extra eligibility due to the pandemic. Because of that, when there was a roster need, Shuffield played quite a bit in Triple-A in his pro debut and posted a .917 OPS across three levels. In 2023, he's combined for a .786 OPS in Fort Myers. 
• Andrew Cossetti (11th Round): Cossetti has split time between Low-A and High-A during the 2023 season. He's played catcher and first base while combining for a .986 OPS in 50 games. 
• Nate Baez (12th Round): Baez hit .279/.338/.508 (.846) in 19 games after signing last season. He is currently on the IL with a broken hamate bone. 
• C.J. Culpepper (13th Round): Culpepper shares some similarities to Joe Ryan, and the Twins hope he can follow a similar development path. In 10 starts (40 1/3 innings), he's posted a 2.68 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and 10.7 K/9.
• Omari Daniel (14th Round): The Twins drafted him out of high school and held off on his pro debut until 2023 since he was still rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. With the FCL Twins, he started the year 2-for-12 (.167 BA) with more walks (five) than strikeouts (four). 
• Ben Ethridge (15th Round): Ethridge moved to a bullpen role in his senior season at Southern Mississippi, and the Twins have continued that role with Fort Myers. In 14 appearances (28 1/3 innings), he has a 2.86 ERA with an 8.6 K/9.
• Jankel Ortiz (16th Round): He went 3-for-12 (.250 BA) with four walks and a double in his pro debut. Ortiz made nine appearances in the Puerto Rican Winter League and posted a .978 OPS. He recently came off the IL and has cone 0-for-6 in his first two games in 2023.
• Alec Sayre (17th Round): Sayre has played all three outfield positions at Low-A in 2023. He's hitting .224/.364/.321 (.685) with seven extra-base hits in his first 44 games this season. 
• Zach Veen (18th Round): Veen has pitched out of the Fort Myers bullpen during the 2023 campaign. In 18 appearances (28 innings), he has posted a 3.21 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP and a 9.0 K/9.

OTHER POSTS IN THE SERIES
-2021 Draft Retrospective
-2020 Draft Retrospective
-2019 Draft Retrospective
-2018 Draft Retrospective
-2017 Draft Retrospective
-2016 Draft Retrospective

What are your early impressions of the 2022 draft class? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[Nashvilletwin]

Lee should be a star (if he keeps listening to his father and can avoid going the Austin Martin hitting reeducation route for which our system is becoming infamous). I hope we keep moving him quickly and he is at worst a September call up with a chance to break camp next year as an everyday 2B (or 3B, depending on where Lewis plays). 

If Prielipp can get and stay healthy (which, unfortunately, possibly seems less likely than when we drafted him), he could be a member of the rotation in 2025 - but still A LOT to prove.

Schobel is probably behind Miller in the important battle for the 2025 “versatile, reliably defensively, utility infielder” role once Farmer (who, btw, is a real pro with a ton of game) moves on. 

[2wins87]

Still in the first impression stages of this draft so we really have no idea if it was good or not.

I think Lee has been everything promised at draft, except for his somewhat lacking power so far, which was supposed to be at least average to a tick above.  Otherwise he's moved fast and taken enough walks while making lots of contact.  I think the power should come, but it's held back his top-line numbers so far.

Prielipp has pitched 35 innings in competitive baseball in the last 4 years.  I think it was a good gamble for his talent, but we really have no idea what they got yet, and they'll need to treat him very carefully as he tries to build up to even a reliever workload, let alone starter.

I think I'm a little lower on Schobel than the consensus, but he's done a pretty good job of making contact so far despite the leg kick, which he probably needs to get to his power given his size.  At that point in the draft a scrappy MLB utility player would still be a solid outcome.

Following the Twins farm system closely, it should be basically an expectation at this point that a couple of pitchers are going to pop up from the second and third day picks every year.  Matthews is my top pop-up guy so far with an incredible walk rate under 3%, K rate over 30%, and a mid 90s fastball.  Lewis is right there with him, and Morris could be too though we need to see him pitching healthy for a bit longer.  A little behind them I have Jones and Culpepper.  Jones they liked enough to start in high A; he hasn't gotten enough whiffs there but his control has been very good so he could still be a couple tweaks away.  Culpepper came into this year with good velocity but the fastball doesn't overpower low-A hitters so I'm waiting to see how the whole package comes together as he moves up.

Cossetti's numbers in high-A are coming around.  His K rate and ISO are both already basically in line with what he did in low A.  The walk rate is quite a bit lower which is unsurprising, but he's had plenty of extra base hits so I think the low BABIP in A+ is pretty fluky.  His CS% on defense has been excellent.  I'm sure that's not very representative of his overall defensive package, but with his experience I expect he should at least be good enough to stick.  It's pretty rare for one of those 10th or 11th round senior signs really turns into a legit prospect, but I think he's just a couple strong weeks in the midwest league away from looking like it.

Probably the other guy that deserves mention is Ortega, who's showed good plate discipline and a knack for line drives, and success on the base paths in low A.  He'll need to move up soon and perform at high A, but seems like there could be MLB utility potential there too.

I don't know yet if this was a good or bad draft, but I think it's a good example of them drafting to their strengths.  With some luck, they were able to go for good college hitters early, they got a risky but potentially depressed asset in Prielipp, and got some college pitchers later on that they've already been able to improve quite a bit.  I wouldn't mind seeing this kind of draft play out every year as long as they are able to successfully fill in gaps via trade, which hasn't always worked out great in terms of return or what they've agreed to give up.

[Dman]

I think it was Law that pointed out that Lee might not be a big HR hitter based on his swing and that seems to be holding true so far.  So far at AA Lee is very balanced at the plate though with very good walk and K rates.  I don't know that I see All Star player there yet but he is very good and this being his first full pro year has plenty of time to get even better.  When looking at Lee compared to the College hitters taken before and after him the only player performing better at his level or higher is Neto IIRC. So he is doing really well for being pushed to AA early.

Schobel is interesting.  Before going cold again last week he was looking like a steal in the second round as he was playing as well as several of the picks ahead him even into the first round.  IMO he is looking like a better hitter than Gavin Cross the player the Twins were linked to in the first round before Lee became available.  Schobel isn't striking out as much as Cross and has a higher batting average and OPS.  Granted Cross is one the league leaders in HR's but with a tick more power I think I like Schobel better and they got him late in the second round.

I was wondering how Ben Ross was going to do coming from a smaller school and I still think he is going to be a steal at number 5.  He is one HR behind Rosario and currently there are only 5 players with double digit HR's and Ross is one of them.  I assume he is on the Twins swings hard at everything approach and wonder if he might end up a bit like Spencer Steer only hopefully with better defense.  His batting average is low right now as is his BABIP. He is aggressive at the plate but he needs more hits and despite the 10 HR's it would be nice to see a higher Slugging percentage but for his first pro year at High A there is a lot to dream on right now.  A ways to go but he sure looks like a good get at number 5 especially considering his HR power matches guys that were taken in the first round.

Ortega should be at High A but with the glut of infielders there has stayed at Low A.  He is top 4 in OPS in that league and likely a tick old for that level as well.  The little I have watched him he seems to hit everything hard.  A very balanced approach with HR and especially Doubles power.  I think he is going to surprise some people as he moves up but we will see.

Cossetti looks like he could make the Twins top 30 as a catching prospect.  He has a really strong approach with K rate and Walk rate almost identical when he was in A ball and his .320 BA and 1.069 OPS got him moved up to high A where his numbers have fallen some as he adjusts to better pitching.  He has good HR power so he looks like a really good offensive catcher at this point.  Whether he has the defense to match it I do not know but he might be the most exciting catching prospect in the system just because the offensive skills are so well rounded.

Corey Lewis could be another amazing find as a 9th round pick.  The pitch mix plus that change of pace Knuckle ball makes me think he has a chance to be special.  Still a long ways to go but if can get to AA this year that would put him closer to MLB ready.

So far it looks like promising Class but there is along way to go and even some of the guys that look good right now can and will flame out.  Some of the over looked players will be surprises.  Still this looks like a strong class to me and I hope they all make it.

[Blyleven2011]

Don't mess with Lee's swing for power  ,,, 

He's hitting doubles better than  any current twin ,,, he has power , it's called gap power ...

I'll take his doubles , his contact to ball in the 3 hole in the coming future any day of the week  ... 

Neto is a California angel  and first to play in the majors from the 2022 class of prospects ...

[nclahammer]

Looking forward to seeing some of these "kids" this weekend in Cedar Rapids.

[Steve Lein]

23 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Don't mess with Lee's swing for power  ,,, 

He's hitting doubles better than  any current twin ,,, he has power , it's called gap power ...

I'll take his doubles , his contact to ball in the 3 hole in the coming future any day of the week  ... 

Neto is a California angel  and first to play in the majors from the 2022 class of prospects ...

Lee is comfortably leading the Texas League in doubles, and is tied for second in all of the minors. Agree with this completely, and have said elsewhere I'd expect a lot more Mauer than Morneau for him when it comes to power.