Twins Left-Handed "Depth" is Testing the Limits

[Jocko87]

10 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

They kind of are holding Wallner down if they're prioritizing Kepler right now. I'd stop short of saying that penciling in his 700ish OPS next to MAT in CF is the right play at this point. What (positive) change occurs with Kepler in a few months, and if they're not moving him because the LH corner OF market is down, why are the Twins entertaining the idea of selling low on Larnach or Wallner? 

Agreed but in the larger picture a month or two isn't going to matter much.  On the balance, offense/defense, even the assumed difference just isn't that large.  They locked in a more certain player for a few months. 

I do think they are overestimating his value, I don't think the LH corner OF market is down-I think that's what it is.  Saturated.  I still think they have to move him but if they are overvaluing him I could see taking pivoting to a much larger return for Wallner or Larnach.  Its not likely they move either of those guys but the best return for Kepler is a middle relief pitcher. 

[KirbyDome89]

9 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Agreed but in the larger picture a month or two isn't going to matter much.  On the balance, offense/defense, even the assumed difference just isn't that large.  They locked in a more certain player for a few months. 

I do think they are overestimating his value, I don't think the LH corner OF market is down-I think that's what it is.  Saturated.  I still think they have to move him but if they are overvaluing him I could see taking pivoting to a much larger return for Wallner or Larnach.  Its not likely they move either of those guys but the best return for Kepler is a middle relief pitcher. 

What is that certainty actually providing though, and why can't they pivot back to it if an attempt at improvement implodes? It's odd that a team this starved for offense is so willing to lock themselves into subpar output in RF when a viable option for improvement is playing across the river. 

So they'd need to find a hopeful playoff team willing to move pitching for a weak hitting LH corner OF'er in a market that's saturated with LH corner OF'ers, or a tanking team that's more interested in 2+ months of Kepler than prospects. Yeesh, good luck. 

[Cody Pirkl]

8 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

If he's healthy he starts.  I'd like to see more platoon use for him but without any RH hitting outfielders truly in the mix it is was it is.  He will not be benched as, yes, an organizational favorite and well respected veteran but as a solid player that can be counted on.  Would we like more? Sure, but we need all the stability we can get.

Besides, if you bench him his trade value is tanked.  It's low enough as everyone else knows what we have waiting too. 

I think Kepler gets too much credit for being "stable". He doesn't have the strikeout rate of a Joey Gallo but he's just as streaky and the highs aren't as high. He opened the season going 2-17 before going on the IL, was a respectable hitter for a time, but is now 2 for his last 28. He is a solid overall player but it's his defense that keeps him from being completely without value. This lineup needs more imo.

[Riverbrian]

Wallner hitting a double, triple and 420 foot home run last night kinda suggests that he is still a hot streak cut short by decree. 

[stringer bell]

2 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Wallner hitting a double, triple and 420 foot home run last night kinda suggests that he is still a hot streak cut short by decree. 

Yeah, it was against minor league pitching, but a double, triple and homer behind Kirilloff, who was on base three out of four times yesterday could have changed the game significantly.

[Jocko87]

19 minutes ago, Cody Pirkl said:

I think Kepler gets too much credit for being "stable". He doesn't have the strikeout rate of a Joey Gallo but he's just as streaky and the highs aren't as high. He opened the season going 2-17 before going on the IL, was a respectable hitter for a time, but is now 2 for his last 28. He is a solid overall player but it's his defense that keeps him from being completely without value. This lineup needs more imo.

Agreed but they know that's what they are getting. Wallner can do all of that minus the defense. Not unreasonable to set the floor and wait a few months.  To get closer to their price they need someone desperate at the deadline.

[Riverbrian]

Just now, stringer bell said:

Yeah, it was against minor league pitching, but a double, triple and homer behind Kirilloff, who was on base three out of four times yesterday could have changed the game significantly.

In the movie Saving Private Ryan. (BTW Thank you to all who have served). Tom Hanks is clutching his wounds and he whispers to Matt Damon "Earn This".   

I feel like someone should be saying that to Max Kepler right about now.  

 

[Cody Pirkl]

56 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Agreed but they know that's what they are getting. Wallner can do all of that minus the defense. Not unreasonable to set the floor and wait a few months.  To get closer to their price they need someone desperate at the deadline.

But what is the value of knowing what they're getting when they know what they're getting isn't very good? He ranges from respectable to just as bad as the downside of any prospect they could possibly call up. Even Wallner's 8 consecutive PAs reaching base shows more of an upside than Kepler has shown in years.

This would be different if the lineup didn't stink, but I think currently his best case scenario of a league averagish bat doesn't really help them a lot. I'd prefer they try someone with the possibility of legitimately helping the lineup rather than Kepler whose best case scenario is not actively hurting it.

[Jocko87]

25 minutes ago, Cody Pirkl said:

But what is the value of knowing what they're getting when they know what they're getting isn't very good? He ranges from respectable to just as bad as the downside of any prospect they could possibly call up. Even Wallner's 8 consecutive PAs reaching base shows more of an upside than Kepler has shown in years.

This would be different if the lineup didn't stink, but I think currently his best case scenario of a league averagish bat doesn't really help them a lot. I'd prefer they try someone with the possibility of legitimately helping the lineup rather than Kepler whose best case scenario is not actively hurting it.

We agree, and personally I think Gallo provided plenty of backfill for the position.  Its not what I would have done.  I think they ultimately made the bet that they could get a couple hot months of Kepler and a better in season trade with not a lot of downside.  Still might work.  It's not an unreasonable play but it does look worse in the rear view mirror. 

[Cody Pirkl]

8 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

We agree, and personally I think Gallo provided plenty of backfill for the position.  Its not what I would have done.  I think they ultimately made the bet that they could get a couple hot months of Kepler and a better in season trade with not a lot of downside.  Still might work.  It's not an unreasonable play but it does look worse in the rear view mirror. 

Yeah either betting on a Kepler hot streak or hoping he becomes a more valuable player again, because if he even had a 110-115 OPS+ his $10.5m option on 2024 becomes a steal. I just don't see that happening, though I do believe if they allow him to stay through the season that they'll pick that option up.

[Riverbrian]

7 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

I think they ultimately made the bet that they could get a couple hot months of Kepler and a better in season trade with not a lot of downside

If your team is in contention... Wouldn't a couple of hot months take him out of in-season trade considerations?

After all... contending teams acquire rentals just to improve for the stretch run... they don't trade rentals.  

The Twins hold a 10 million dollar club option on Kepler. 

If he doesn't get better, his rental status holds no value because he isn't improving what teams already have for the stretch run. 

Plain and simple... Kepler is playing for 10 million bucks next year. If he doesn't get those hot months... the Twins won't pay the 10 and he will be a free agent looking at minor league deals next year or a low dollar 1 year prove it deal.    

Kepler is heading straight for a cliff if he doesn't turn it around. 

The Twins moving on from him before the season is over would be almost fatal to his career at this moment in time.

I think the club understands the consequences to Kepler's career by giving Wallner his job right now so I wouldn't dismiss humanitarian and pecking order considerations.   

However, at some point, the club is going to be absolutely sure that they are not going to pick up that option meaning Kepler will not be part of the team in 2024 and beyond. Meaning Kepler has no future value which is not good news for Kepler especially if he isn't providing significant current value.  

In my opinion, when they reach the conclusion that they are not picking up the option. Kepler has to be demonstrably better than Larnach and Wallner. because Larnach and Wallner will be back in 2024.     

The Twins have to be getting close to that point. Kepler should be hearing a loud ticking clock in his head because that career clock is absolutely real.    

[Jocko87]

12 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

If your team is in contention... Wouldn't a couple of hot months take him out of in-season trade considerations?

After all... contending teams acquire rentals just to improve for the stretch run... they don't trade rentals.  

The Twins hold a 10 million dollar club option on Kepler. 

If he doesn't get better, his rental status holds no value because he isn't improving what teams already have for the stretch run. 

Plain and simple... Kepler is playing for 10 million bucks next year. If he doesn't get those hot months... the Twins won't pay the 10 and he will be a free agent looking at minor league deals next year or a low dollar 1 year prove it deal.    

Kepler is heading straight for a cliff if he doesn't turn it around. 

The Twins moving on from him before the season is over would be almost fatal to his career at this moment in time.

I think the club understands the consequences to Kepler's career by giving Wallner his job right now so I wouldn't dismiss humanitarian and pecking order considerations.   

However, at some point, the club is going to be absolutely sure that they are not going to pick up that option meaning Kepler will not be part of the team in 2024 and beyond. Meaning Kepler has no future value which is not good news for Kepler especially if he isn't providing significant current value.  

In my opinion, when they reach the conclusion that they are not picking up the option. Kepler has to be demonstrably better than Larnach and Wallner. because Larnach and Wallner will be back in 2024.     

The Twins have to be getting close to that point. Kepler should be hearing a loud ticking clock in his head because that career clock is absolutely real.    

It would be nice to have the option though.  I don't think anyone believes a hot Kepler is carrying the team, hot Kepler is .750 OPS.  We are talking the difference between a low A prospect and maaaybe a ML reliever.  Its certainly not a high stakes play. 

The elephant in the room is that they don't trust that Wallner et al more than Kepler.  I'm more concerned about that than spending a few more months with Max.  We should be finding out though. 

[Riverbrian]

3 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

It would be nice to have the option though.  I don't think anyone believes a hot Kepler is carrying the team, hot Kepler is .750 OPS.  We are talking the difference between a low A prospect and maaaybe a ML reliever.  Its certainly not a high stakes play. 

The elephant in the room is that they don't trust that Wallner et al more than Kepler.  I'm more concerned about that than spending a few more months with Max.  We should be finding out though. 

The option is still there. However, we all remember what happened when a financial decision had to be made on Eddie Rosario and Eddie kinda sets a bar for Kepler to clear for that option to be picked up. It ain't looking good to me... unless the front office really really really really values defense to the point of dismissing offense almost entirely. 

I agree... It's probably risky to trust a rookie... but eventually trust of a rookie won't matter if Kepler can't get himself over the Mendoza line with the bat because eventually you end up trusting that anyone will be able to do better.

I think that planning for potential injuries would be a larger consideration. 

Wallner and Larnach can be stashed in reserve to cover for future injuries. If you pull the plug on Kepler, you are one player short now and we have already reached down to Garlick on the OF depth chart to cover for a rash of injuries. Those rashes can still come in September like they did last year.  

Myself... I'm bummed that Wallner's hot streak was clipped but I get it... Kepler has to be given his job back at this moment in the season but that clock has to be ticking.

It just has to be.  

My guess, is that Kepler has until the trade deadline to get himself right but not because we will trade him. Because, we will be trading for someone.  

If we are still in contention and the offense hasn't made significant collective strides. We will make a trade for a rental with decent bat skills.

When that player is required... someone on a expiring contract will then be jettisoned because the team will still want that Larnach and Wallner depth to cover for injuries. Acquiring a player... will be the first serious threat to Kepler. 

I'm guessing that he's got a couple of months... Tick Tick Tick 😎 

 

[Major League Ready]

18 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

If your team is in contention... Wouldn't a couple of hot months take him out of in-season trade considerations?

After all... contending teams acquire rentals just to improve for the stretch run... they don't trade rentals.  

The Twins hold a 10 million dollar club option on Kepler. 

If he doesn't get better, his rental status holds no value because he isn't improving what teams already have for the stretch run. 

Plain and simple... Kepler is playing for 10 million bucks next year. If he doesn't get those hot months... the Twins won't pay the 10 and he will be a free agent looking at minor league deals next year or a low dollar 1 year prove it deal.    

Kepler is heading straight for a cliff if he doesn't turn it around. 

The Twins moving on from him before the season is over would be almost fatal to his career at this moment in time.

I think the club understands the consequences to Kepler's career by giving Wallner his job right now so I wouldn't dismiss humanitarian and pecking order considerations.   

However, at some point, the club is going to be absolutely sure that they are not going to pick up that option meaning Kepler will not be part of the team in 2024 and beyond. Meaning Kepler has no future value which is not good news for Kepler especially if he isn't providing significant current value.  

In my opinion, when they reach the conclusion that they are not picking up the option. Kepler has to be demonstrably better than Larnach and Wallner. because Larnach and Wallner will be back in 2024.     

The Twins have to be getting close to that point. Kepler should be hearing a loud ticking clock in his head because that career clock is absolutely real.    

Their options as I see it were to DFA Kepler or Solano or send Julien down.  Sending down Julien with Polanco out makes no sense.  Therefore, they would have to DFA Solano or Kepler.  Here is where your point about impacting player's career enters.  DFAing either would be a very bad look with players and agents for the reasons you cited.  Veteran players and agents definitely believe they are due greater respect, especially if part of the logic is to play a prospect had 2 good games.   Teams simply can't treat players this way.  Kepler has been with this organization a long time.  The right way to handle it is to eventually find a trade partner or pass on his option.   It's a different story if he starts hitting well below league average.

Solano is a little different situation but he is performing about as expected.  To dump him 1/3 of the way through the season would be looked down upon by players and agents.

[Riverbrian]

2 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Their options as I see it were to DFA Kepler or Solano or send Julien down.  Sending down Julien with Polanco out makes no sense.  Therefore, they would have to DFA Solano or Kepler.  Here is where your point about impact player's career enters.  DFAing either would be a very bad look with players and agents for the reasons you cited.  Veteran players and agents definitely believe they are due greater respect, especially if part of the logic is to play a prospect had 2 good games.   Teams simply can't treat players this way.  Kepler has been with this organization a long time.  The right way to handle it is to eventually find a trade partner or pass on his option.   It's a different story if he starts hitting well below league average.

Solano is a little different situation but he is performing about as expected.  To dump him 1/3 of the way through the season would be looked down upon by players and agents.

Baseball is certainly cut throat with hard hard decisions that can't be avoided. But I like to believe that front offices are human beings that still have considerations for other human beings. 

It's easy for me to talk tough on a message board but if I was in charge... I like to think that the human side would be a factor in my responsibilities.  

I don't ever want to be that kind of person who just treats players fighting for a career like fleas.  

[Greglw3]

On 5/30/2023 at 10:25 AM, Dman said:

I don't think it makes him "better" but he is a vet so a known quantity.  He plays good defense.  He has no options so if DFA'd likely lost for good.  He has been about league average so not horrible but not great either.

We have no idea who Wallner is and lot's of young guys start out hot until teams find weaknesses to exploit.  Wallner needs to play everyday.  I don't think Gallo or Max are on this team next year so Wallner will get a real chance next year for sure.  Also given the tender Hammies on Both Kepler and Gallo he might see more action this year as well.

I wish they would have left the hot bat alone until it cooled off at least for one game but vet's get their spots back when ready.  That's just the way it works.

If .202, now .196, is league average, then I’m the King of Funk. I don’t value the new SABR stats, especially because OPS+ favors those who hit with a bit of power and undervalues a guy like Luis Arraez. .196 now. I guarantee you They won’t win anything with that player taking up one of the prime offense spots.

Plyers that should play over him are the .260 - .270 or higher hitters like Farmer, Castro, Solano. They started 7 guys <= .226 yesterday and scored no runs. The idea should be to chip away at the 7 poor hitters and get 2,3,4 more hitters that are content to good hitters. I also think Gallo has hurt the cause with his long slumps devoid of homers and full of strikeouts.

[joemama]

Was there a reason (e.g., maybe a rule because it was the 10-day IL) Kepler couldn't have been sent on a rehab assignment to take advantage of Wallner's white-hot bat? On base in 8 straight PAs, then he goes down to AAA and has a 3-5 game with a double, triple, and home run. Dude's crushing, and we're missing it.