It's A Marathon, Not a Sprint

[Matt Braun]

One of the lessons my father passed down to me was when I was younger was: “It’s a marathon, not a sprint.” Of course, this wasn’t some ancient monkish knowledge pertaining to life; slowing down, you crazy child, or any of that: he was talking about drinking. It’s the most valuable information I’ve ever learned. 

Image courtesy of Rhona Wise-USA TODAY Sports

Recently I wrapped up an off-season writing project: hand-writing a post-game report for every game the Twins played in 2022. All 162 matches. No exceptions. Beyond the insanity of it all—and it truly was a nightmare at times, with evenings of madness laughing into the void—these games offered a quiet consistency; whispering between the outs and runs; giving hints about the nature of the game that strike deep into baseball’s core. Patterns emerged. It would be foolish to proclaim that I now carry the weight of secret baseball knowledge, but allow me to explain some of what I saw.

Unlike most other sports, baseball isn’t a test of skill as much as it is a battle of endurance; ask any manager in spring training and you’ll hear a gorgeous harmony of health, with references to players and the preservations of their fragile ligaments almost meaning more than the games themselves. Today can be lost; tomorrow remains in sight. It’s this truth—or, perhaps truism—that guides the sport. 162 games remain undeterred, played whether ready or not. Sure, a team must focus on building their victories at some point, but no one remembers the April losses if they begat September wins, and those wins can only happen when the team is healthy and at full strength. 

This was a point the 2022 Twins missed. Their acceptable 50-44 first-half record evaporated into a 28-40 second-half slog, emphasized by a brutal 11-22 stretch following the month of August. They finished third in the division and earned no postseason credit. 

That team didn’t intend to collapse, as no wise franchise predicts their own demise, but it’s clear that a squad’s true ability can often only reveal itself late, far late in the season, not in the soggy months of April and May. 

But, perhaps that team was not yet as lukewarm as we think; many—and I do mean many—of their losses came via late-inning blowups, specifically against the Cleveland Guardians, specifically with Emilio Pagán meddling in some capacity. Indeed, an astounding eight defeats occurred when the Guardians happened to score just one more run than the Twins. Minnesota only won one such match: a 1-0 squeaker on June 23rd that apparently just missed the baseball gods’ attention. Maybe it’s no surprise that the team ended with a slightly positive Pythagorean win/loss record of 82-80. 

This isn’t to say that the Twins will happen to win more games as fortune rubbernecks their victories, handing them a more equitable total of near wins in 2023: baseball is still built on disorder. It could very well happen that Cleveland again wins entirely too many games via close calls, and we all spend the offseason huffing at the injustice of it all; the sport is funny like that. 

As I wrote more about the season, it became clear that the 2022 Twins were really the 2018 Twins in disguise. A crappy disguise, but one nonetheless. That 2018 squad, fresh off a 2017 playoff appearance, never got it together, trudging through months of mediocre ball before detonating by trading Brian Dozier, Eduardo Escobar , and Ryan Pressly in the hopes that grass would be greener in the future. They finished the year with 78 wins, just as the team last year did. 

Things did improve, as losing 14 (!!!) games on walk-offs isn’t something that tends to happen twice; the record-setting home run total the following year probably helped as well.

This is all to say that baseball is a freaky sport. We (over)analyze minute details, theorizing matchups and breakouts just to shrug our shoulders when Sandy Alcantara goes to town on our team because, well, that’s how it goes sometimes. You can draw out statistics as long as you want, but if the other guys’ hits are falling more than yours, you’re probably going to lose. Looking at the broad, over-reaching movements is great and informative, but those shifts don’t occur in a single-game environment: that is still left for the messy, gross randomness of life to run wild. And, because us humans are emotional creatures, it’s easy to get swept up in the flurry, angry at today because we can’t yet see tomorrow.

So get mad if you want to; it’s your fanship to do what you please with, but know that this game isn’t a day, or a week, or a month: it’s a full season—162 games where everything wacky and absurd happens in the details, ultimately only becoming clear as the final few matches fall in September. They may lose today, and tomorrow, and the day after that; but the season remains young and inexperienced, not yet sure what it wants to be at this stage of its life. It will reveal itself at some point—it always does—but that time is far from this point, and worrying about it will only grey your hairs. So—as my father would like to say—always remember that it’s a marathon, not a sprint.

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[Rod Carews Birthday]

This article is far too sensible and level-headed.  You are absolutely right in that we do tend to sweat over the most minute details as though those were necessarily going to be the difference between an 80 win team and a 100 win team.  I'm with you. . . if I'm really going to enjoy Twins baseball, I need to step back, watch, and relax.  Smile when things go well.  Maybe curse a little when they don't.  But it's a lot less stressful and a lot more pleasant than the alternative.  Go Twins! 

[weitz41]

(insert Stu's Satire warning here)

But how can we complain about the line up, this hitter, that guy or pulling a pitcher with only 85 pitches if we look at it as a marathon instead of a sprint?

(end warning)

 

 

[Woof Bronzer]

I get the sentiment here, but I will say, look at last year.  The club dropped plenty of winnable games in May/June that at the time, didn't seem like a huge deal because they had a decent lead in the division.  Came back to bite them in September.  Good managers have an instinct for when to, if not sprint, then at least give a burst here and there.  Can't go 100 mph for 162 straight games, but I would have liked the club to put the proverbial boot on throat when they were 4-0.  Coming into this series 6-0 would feel a lot different than coming in 4-2 on a 2 game losing streak.  Just my thought, I know I'm not making a data driven argument, so feel free to rip away :)

[Boswell]

Every team wins 60 games and loses 60 games.  What each team does in the other 42 makes all the difference!

[Squirrel]

As I always like to remind myself … it’s just a game. Yes, one I enjoy, one I like to understand in all its minutiae, and one I want my team to win, but in the end, I just can’t carry the grudges and angst some seem to, finger pointing and complaining even in wins, almost gloating in losses. In the vein of ‘it’s a marathon’, manage expectations is also a good philosophy: hope for the best, prepare for the worst, be happy for the wins, shrug off the losses - in the end, it’s just a game and not the meaning of life.

Thanks for the article for a healthy dose of perspective that is often lost on these boards.

[JD-TWINS]

22 hours ago, Woof Bronzer said:

I get the sentiment here, but I will say, look at last year.  The club dropped plenty of winnable games in May/June that at the time, didn't seem like a huge deal because they had a decent lead in the division.  Came back to bite them in September.  Good managers have an instinct for when to, if not sprint, then at least give a burst here and there.  Can't go 100 mph for 162 straight games, but I would have liked the club to put the proverbial boot on throat when they were 4-0.  Coming into this series 6-0 would feel a lot different than coming in 4-2 on a 2 game losing streak.  Just my thought, I know I'm not making a data driven argument, so feel free to rip away :)

You can’t Wish Win games…….Alcantara & Luzardo are two of the top 15 pitchers in the game. Luzardo is less known (young) but probably has better stuff than his Cy Young winning teammate………we got 11 hits yesterday in game 7 and won a thriller v. the defending World Series champs.

We’ll be just fine if we keep pitching anywhere close to the first 7 games!

[Whitey333]

I am so sick of the refrain " it's a marathon not a sprint" mantra I could scream.  I think the games still count in the standings in April and May.  That phrase is for loser teams which the Twins usually are.  As of today they are 6-2 and playing well but surely not perfect.  But that should be your goal to win as many games as possible even if it is April or May.  If it is not then we need knew managers.