Should the Twins extend Arraez?

[Cris E]

Wait.  He's got to prove that the injury that killed his numbers down the stretch last year is fixed and not recurring, he's got to show he can field at 2b without the shift, and we have to see how the many other doubles-power 2b coming up through the system mature.  Let's talk next year when Arraez, Polanco, Julien, Martin and Lewis all have another year in the books. 

[PseudoSABR]

Before we really know a guy like Arraez value, a batting average almost only guy, we'd need to know how the new shift rules play out.  It's possible that many more guys will have greater BA value now that the shift is banned, making Arraez BA skill less significant, and the rest of his game more of detriment.  

I'd lean more trade than extend, at this point.

[baul0010]

On 1/13/2023 at 3:31 PM, Nashvilletwin said:

 

I’m not saying Arraez will have a career like the player above; however, their first four seasons overall have been pretty comparable at the plate. I’d extend him.

Oh, the player is Tony Gwynn

You don't need to say it.  Arraez won't have a career like Tony Gwynn.  He's 25 now and can't hold up physically.  It ain't getting better as he ages.  

[JD-TWINS]

On 1/13/2023 at 4:31 PM, Nashvilletwin said:

Would you extend this player?

Averages for first four seasons: Ave: .316; OBP: .366, OPS: .770.

Total plate appearances: 1,889. Age at the end of year 4: 25.

Compare to Arraez.

Arraez first four seasons averages: BA: .314; OBP: 0.374; OPS: .774 

Arraez total PAs: 1,569. Age at the end of year 4: 25

I’m not saying Arraez will have a career like the player above; however, their first four seasons overall have been pretty comparable at the plate. I’d extend him.

Oh, the player is Tony Gwynn

Your comparison to Gwynn is well done but I’m sure the majority of the readers/writers here will still think trading Luis is somehow a good idea. “….,…..trade him while his value is high….” - what kind of backward logic is it to trade the batting champ before his 26th birthday. “…….he can’t play 2nd - he can’t play 3rd……..he’s too short to play 1st…….he has bad knees”

When Carew moved to first base due to fragile knees nobody complained about his lack of height! He managed to be an All-Star 11 more times after moving to 1B. Never a thought of trading Rodney due to his lack of defense - we all knew as long as he could get to the plate we were good!!!

Carew didn’t drive in runs in his first 7-8 years……he got moved to 3rd in the line-up and had 90 - 100 RBI a handful of years after being moved. Great way to protect a teammate’s bat as well with Arraez down in the line-up.

The idea of an extension early is to provide security for player and for the organization to save some $ over the long term. The idea is not to screw the player & get all the FO can get for their benefit. I would think Arraez is worth $6million - $9million - $12 million  - $15million for 2 years. Extra $1.5 million for any year he finishes in top 5 for BA

[Doctor Gast]

21 hours ago, Squirrel said:

If he isn't fit to play 2nd, he is definitely not fit to play 3rd. He has played a very passable 2nd over the last few years ... he has not played a passable 3rd. 2nd is probably his best position, followed by 1st, followed very distantly by 3rd. If he can improve at 3rd base, he would still be better suited for 2nd. This is part of the problem with keeping Arraez ... no position for him.

The biggest problem for Arraez is that he has no range. IMO, like SS, range is very important. You either have or you don't. With training IMO with Arraez determination he could become passable at 3B. 1B is his best on field position but unfortunately, he doesn't have the size & power to profile there.

[stringer bell]

13 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Your comparison to Gwynn is well done but I’m sure the majority of the readers/writers here will still think trading Luis is somehow a good idea. “….,…..trade him while his value is high….” - what kind of backward logic is it to trade the batting champ before his 26th birthday. “…….he can’t play 2nd - he can’t play 3rd……..he’s too short to play 1st…….he has bad knees”

When Carew moved to first base due to fragile knees nobody complained about his lack of height! He managed to be an All-Star 11 more times after moving to 1B. Never a thought of trading Rodney due to his lack of defense - we all knew as long as he could get to the plate we were good!!!

Carew didn’t drive in runs in his first 7-8 years……he got moved to 3rd in the line-up and had 90 - 100 RBI a handful of years after being moved. Great way to protect a teammate’s bat as well with Arraez down in the line-up.

The idea of an extension early is to provide security for player and for the organization to save some $ over the long term. The idea is not to screw the player & get all the FO can get for their benefit. I would think Arraez is worth $6million - $9million - $12 million  - $15million for 2 years. Extra $1.5 million for any year he finishes in top 5 for BA

Tony Gwynn became a first ballot Hall-of-Famer when he dominated in his mid-30s (ages 34-37) by hitting .394, .368, .353 and .372, setting himself off from the rest of the NL by a substantial margin for batting average. Further, Gwynn won five Gold Gloves and stole over 300 bases in his career, indicating he was more than a singles hitter without a position. In addition, Gwynn always hit left handed pitching well, with a career OPS over .800 and a lifetime average of .325.

Gwynn's career followed Carew's until his mid-30s. Rod tailed off, not winning a batting championship as an Angel and netting only 18 WAR in seven years in Anaheim. Incidentally, Carew was listed at six feet even, so there is a  difference between Arraez (listed at 5-10, but probably shorter) and Sir Rodney.

[AlwaysinModeration]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

Tony Gwynn became a first ballot Hall-of-Famer when he dominated in his mid-30s (ages 34-37) by hitting .394, .368, .353 and .372, setting himself off from the rest of the NL by a substantial margin for batting average. Further, Gwynn won five Gold Gloves and stole over 300 bases in his career, indicating he was more than a singles hitter without a position. In addition, Gwynn always hit left handed pitching well, with a career OPS over .800 and a lifetime average of .325.

Gwynn's career followed Carew's until his mid-30s. Rod tailed off, not winning a batting championship as an Angel and netting only 18 WAR in seven years in Anaheim. Incidentally, Carew was listed at six feet even, so there is a  difference between Arraez (listed at 5-10, but probably shorter) and Sir Rodney.

But hey, Luiz has 8 stolen bases!

Thus was actually the first year he had enough ABs to qualify for the batting title.  I’d certainly prefer the Twins extend him and see if he gets better as he enters his prime, which he may.