Justin Morneau

[stringer bell]

It is early. However, Morneau doesn't look like any better hitter than he was in 2012. He swings hard, but he doesn't make much solid contact. Early this season, he wasn't striking out much and many were encouraged that the hard-hit balls would come. They really haven't--5 extra base hits including a couple of bloop or misplayed doubles--so I don't think Justin has made himself more attractive on the trade market.

 

Further, I don't think Morneau has even shown enough so far to merit a qualifying offer from the Twins. Justin seems to be popular on TD, but I think it's time for him to find himself somewhere else.

[LaBombo]

Maybe this is a lazy take, but it sure looks like Justin has lost the ability to hit left-handed pitching. Just stats, not Jedi scouting, but he just isn't getting it done vs. same side pitchers.

[Guest USAFChief]

Maybe this is a lazy take, but it sure looks like Justin has lost the ability to hit left-handed pitching. Just stats, not Jedi scouting, but he just isn't getting it done vs. same side pitchers.

I'm way more concerned about the PAs he's putting up against RH pitching. Like most LH hitters, his numbers were never that good against LH pitching. But up until the concussion, he was a very, very good and very very dangerous hitter against RH pitching. He just doesn't look like the same guy. I was hoping with another full offseason to get healthy, he'd be as good as ever. It's early, but I'm not seeing it, and it's not just the results. It's the quality of ABs. They're not good.

[edavis0308]

I have to agree. Overall he has looked pretty terrible. I don't have much faith in him at all if a game is on the line. He's just not the same guy right now/any more.

[LaBombo]

I'm way more concerned about the PAs he's putting up against RH pitching.

 

Morneau 2012 vs. LHP, over 200 PA's: .232/.271/.298 .

vs. RHP: .290/.371/.531.

 

2013 vs. LHP: .188/.235/.250

vs. RHP: .279/.354/.419

 

Yes, he's not right, but even more not right against the left lately.

[wagwan]

Still Early still April And it has been cold! I am not sure we can count on anything that is happening in April as a harbinger of things to come. H was swinging well in warm Florida, Canadian or no

[Joe A. Preusser]

Still Early still April And it has been cold! I am not sure we can count on anything that is happening in April as a harbinger of things to come. H was swinging well in warm Florida, Canadian or no

 

I agree. Until we get a stretch of "normal" weather let's just continue to be (im)patient.

[Badsmerf]

It is odd. The AB's he took in the WBC and ST made him look like MVP Morneau. I don't understand why he is so lost right now. It seems like he is just falling off the ball and not staying on top of it. I'm hoping the warmer weather will help too.

[Mike Sixel]

If he had been good the last two years, you could totaly brush this off as SSS.....but that's not been the case. I admit to having some concern, which bums me out, I love Morneau.*

 

*as a baseball player.....and member of the community, but that's as far as it goes

[Alex]

It is odd. The AB's he took in the WBC and ST made him look like MVP Morneau. I don't understand why he is so lost right now. It seems like he is just falling off the ball and not staying on top of it. I'm hoping the warmer weather will help too.

 

Can't tell if this is serious, Badsmerf....

 

When Morneau was struggling, he was opening up early (credit: Parker's video analysis), making it nearly impossible to hit the outside pitch. I feel like I've seen him doing the same thing recently on the ABs I've seen, though I haven't broken it down in slow motion or seen every AB he's taken.

[Badsmerf]

Can't tell if this is serious, Badsmerf....

 

When Morneau was struggling, he was opening up early (credit: Parker's video analysis), making it nearly impossible to hit the outside pitch. I feel like I've seen him doing the same thing recently on the ABs I've seen, though I haven't broken it down in slow motion or seen every AB he's taken.

Completely serious. I watched a lot of the WBC and some ST. Morneau looked as lethal as ever. Your interpretation is what I'm talking about. To me, staying on top is basically keeping his eyes on the ball and weight back. I'm still hopeful, I'm not throwing in the towel on an MVP after a few weeks of baseball.

[Willihammer]

I think the book on Morneau is out at this point. Away, away, away. He will never lean over the plate to keep a pitcher honest. Too gunshy after the concussions, IMO.

[Old Twins Cap]

Yeah, I was at the games yesterday. Time and again when Morneau was up, he had the chance to drive in runs and did not come through. His swings looked terrible and the results were even worse. Don't know what happened to him after ST when it seemed like he was ready to return to excellence.

 

Then again, who would write him off at this point? Wasn't it in 2006 when, like on June 6th Morneau was going nowhere with his baseball career and over the next four months went on an historic tear, terminating in a Division Championship and MVP. Am I misremembering that?

[Boom Boom]

His big numbers in the WBC and spring training were against inferior pitching to what he's seeing now, so there's that.

[Willihammer]

Out of curiosity I pulled baseballprospectus's TAv charts for Morneau against RHP in 2012 to compare them to other lefthanded pull hitters against RHP in 2012.

 

Morneau:

 

http://i.imgur.com/JS3fT3n.png

 

Ortiz:

 

http://i.imgur.com/bGTvdYD.png

 

Dunn:

 

http://i.imgur.com/gAFu2Ln.png

 

Pena:

 

http://i.imgur.com/xl3HOJk.png

 

Hamilton:

 

http://i.imgur.com/ZF5xurU.png

 

Maybe Morneau's plate coverage has been better than I thought. I don't really see any glaring holes compared to these other guys, in the small samples these are showing anyway.

[Guest USAFChief]

Morneau 2012 vs. LHP, over 200 PA's: .232/.271/.298 .

vs. RHP: .290/.371/.531.

 

2013 vs. LHP: .188/.235/.250

vs. RHP: .279/.354/.419

 

Yes, he's not right, but even more not right against the left lately.

Using your numbers: his OPS is off by .074 against lefties, .129 against righties. I'd say it's just the opposite. In any case, it's early, and I hope he turns it around against both. As noted above, it's not just results I'm concerned about anyway. It's how he looks at the plate. I was really hoping this season would bring the return of something resembling 2010 Morneau. So far, it's anything but.

[70charger]

He's Canadian, the cold weather should help him!

 

Seriously though, I'm not terribly worried since April isn't even over yet. He hasn't looked good, that's for sure, and the stats back it up, but he's got plenty of time to turn things around. I hope he does.

[70charger]

Maybe Morneau's plate coverage has been better than I thought. I don't really see any glaring holes compared to these other guys, in the small samples these are showing anyway.

 

Interesting charts. Yes, his plate coverage has been okay, actually. But man, Adam Dunn hits mistakes and only mistakes, doesn't he? That is stark.

[Aaron Cross]

Seems to me he's lost alot of weight in recent years. Its impossible to know for sure how much, because you cant go by their listed weight. But he really looks scrawny. Almost diseased.