Article: Draft Board v.3.0 (4/20)

[Jeremy Nygaard]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1595-Draft-Board-v-3-0-(4-20)

[Pitz]

Thanks for the great write-up and solid info Jeremy. I was just starting to think that Manaea was becoming the more and more likely pick for the Twins, but your placement of Stewart ahead of him has me rethinking. Of course there's still quite a bit of time until the draft for things to change.

I was wondering if you think (or have any inside info) that the Twins' drafting of a lot of college relief pitchers last year is a strategy that they will look to employ again this year, or if it was just something that fit that particular draft/talent. Was it a strategy that they employed and they were targeting those players, or was it just kind of how the draft played out?

[Dance with Disco Dan]

For the last two weeks I've been warming to the idea of taking Kohl Stewart even though prep arms are the biggest crap-shoots in the draft. I would really like to see the Twins take a pitcher with a top of the rotation ceiling and I am leery of the performance fall-offs by Manaea and Stanek. I don't believe Stewart's Texas A&M commit will provide him nearly as much leverage as if he had signed elsewhere. Johnny Football will only be a Sophomore and is not likely headed to the NFL early because he's so small. The gamble in me says go for it.

 

Ultimately, I will be happy when clearer heads than mine take Manaea. For now, its fun to dream on the next Texas fire-baller in my team's system.

[Badsmerf]

Thanks for the great write-up and solid info Jeremy. I was just starting to think that Manaea was becoming the more and more likely pick for the Twins, but your placement of Stewart ahead of him has me rethinking. Of course there's still quite a bit of time until the draft for things to change.

I was wondering if you think (or have any inside info) that the Twins' drafting of a lot of college relief pitchers last year is a strategy that they will look to employ again this year, or if it was just something that fit that particular draft/talent. Was it a strategy that they employed and they were targeting those players, or was it just kind of how the draft played out?

I believe the thought process went into drafting pitchers that have good velocity and can miss bats. Twins believe they could convert some of them and the others might be able to rise through the system quickly in relief. There was more focus put on power arms. Rob Anthony alluded to it in his interview that is on the Twins page. Needless to say, this was a huge shift from taking control pitch to contact guys for the last 10+ years (I've only been watching drafts for 10 years).

[kab21]

Taking Stewart would be against everything the Twins have always done but I like it. Take someone with true ace potential and hope for the best. For me is moving into that tier with Bryant/Frazier/Meadows (edit - Denney also) and possibly Manaea. I feel uneasy about Manaea for some reason.

[gunnarthor]

Needless to say, this was a huge shift from taking control pitch to contact guys for the last 10+ years (I've only been watching drafts for 10 years).

 

Actually, Deron Johnson has been doing that since he took over the draft in 08. The pitches he's taken have generally been high risk power arms - Bullock, Bashore, Gibson, Bard, Hunt, Gutierrez, Bullock, Chargios, Boer, Berrios (and, apparently, he gets so excited about them, he doesn't usually get past the "B"s list).

 

Although it isn't as simple as that - Johnson did take a control guy like Wimmers and Radcliff took fireballers like Garza, Johnson, Durbin and Crain.

[gunnarthor]

Nice write up Jeremy. So one possible scenario for the Twins could be: Astros take Stewart and save a few bucks, Cubs jump on Grey. Rockies decide not to deal with Appel and take a bat they can dream on leaving Appel for the Twins at #4.

 

It's a dream though. Rockies have taken a pitcher first in 3/4 last drafts and their system is strong in hitting and weak in pitching. It would be hard to see them not taking Appel or Grey if he slipped to them.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Like Badsmerf said, there was an emphasis put on power arms... but also power hitters too.

 

I would guess that the early season success of Melotakis and Duffey (if it continues) will cause the Twins to employ a similar strategy again this June. I don't have the exact numbers anymore, but the amount of innings pitched collegiately by the draftees last year was considerably less than the innings pitched by the guys drafted in 2012. Like 75% less. Pitchers arms are like running backs legs, you can only get so many miles (or innings) out of them in a lifetime (with some exceptions), the Twins have been burned by overused college guys (another reason Stewart could be a great pick).

 

Manziel will be a redshirt-sophomore next year (so he could declare for the 2014 NFL Draft), but I agree - especially if he is taken very high - he'll go the baseball route.

 

kab21, I'm with you. The 2nd tier is about six guys deep. Bonus demands will separate those guys as the draft approaches. It might come down to taking the guy who's scout is willing to bet his job on his guy.

 

FYI - and obviously the crosscheckers/supervisors have input as well...

Stewart's scout - Greg Runser, the signing scout for both Melotakis and Duffey. (Chargois as well.) (Runser has respectfully declined my overtures.)

Meadows' scout - Jack Powell, the signing scout for both Buxton and Bard.

Manaea's scout - Jeff Pohl

[diehardtwinsfan]

I could definitely go with Stewart. He's not one that would step in and help the next wave, but he could be up in 4-5 years if all goes well. The thing about Stewart is that it's probably going to take 2M or so to get him to sign (or so I've heard). They could definitely do that in the top half of the draft, but if he slips lower, he may not get drafted at all.

[cmb0252]

Thanks for all the great inside information like always Jeremy.

 

I'm really glad to see that the Twins might actually be high on Stewart. I have had Stewart in the top 10 for the whole draft process but after seeing him pitch this week live, currently live in Houston, he jumped to #3 on my draft board. He had a 10/4 K/BB ration, hit 96 a few times with the fastball, and only gave up two hits in 7 innings of work. After Gray/Appel he is the only other guy I see ace potential in. I hope to do a general write up on him on Monday.

 

Like you, I have Frazier above meadows but it doesn't surprise me that the Twins don't. They love tools. While I was pretty happy with the Buxton pick I would be pretty disappointed with meadows personally.

 

I'm with you on being uneasy with Manaea kab21. He just hasn't been the same guy since the cape. I have him ranked #8 on my board and in my third tier. As I say this, gun to my head, he is who I would guess the Twins end up taking.

[Mike Sixel]

Great wrteup. I have my doubts you can take college relievers and make them good starters, I hope I am wrong, but there isn't much history of that. I read all the time that pitchers are high risk, and often do not work out. To that i would say that if you draft hitters, you are even less likely to develop pitchers.....

 

i want pitching. The draft is the best path to it. Given this write up, I would take any of your four pitchers over any hitter.....though if you really think sano can stay at third, why is Bryant a bad idea? A top power hitting first baseman does not grow on trees.

[nfisch22]

What about Trey Ball? Big left handers don't grow on trees and his future looks to be on the mound as he's struggled a bit at the plate this year.

[cmb0252]

This draft is considered weak overall because of the lack of overall top talent after the first 5-8 guys, lack of college position players, and high school SS/RHP, not pitching in general. There are a ton of good college pitchers/HS LHPs that will be around in round two and later.

 

Last year after drafting Buxton they loaded up on arms, they traded for arms in the off season, and got a pretty good one back from injury in Gibson. While the system could use some more arms, can say that about every system, they aren't as barren as they were a year ago.

 

As I say this the top three players on my board are all arms so I would love to see Appel, Gray (how cool would it be to have Meyers/Gray pitching back to back days?), or Stewart go to the Twins at 4. If they take a bat that's cool too though. Personally I prefer Frazier/Bryant to meadows/Moran.

[Thrylos]

Jon Denney should probably be in this list. Might have more upside than Zunino and good catchers are hard to pass. Zunino was 3rd overall last season, so I think that Denney would make the top ten. Would be interesting to see if the Twins pick him because that is a position of need in the organization, plus might save some $ at their 1st round slot.

[Pitz]

Whether or not the college relief pitchers are able to make the transition to starters isn't really a big concern to me. Of course it would be nice if even one of them could, but I think that having a system full of power relievers also has its benefits. Hopefully, it would allow the Twins to maintain a young cost controlled bullpen at the big league level which in turn would prevent them from overspending/trading for volatile bullpen guys. Of course, I could also see if having the opposite effect, where they are in contention but decide they don't want to trust the young guys down the stretch. But I'm going to pretend I didn't type that last sentence like I wish I could pretend they didn't trade Ramos for Crapps. Alas, I've digressed. Back to the draft discussion - I wouldn't mind seeing them continue to target power relief arms after their first couple picks.

[johnnydakota]

Thanks Jeremy , nice work, very informative

[clutterheart]

Surprised you are so low on Bryant.

 

Advanced power bats like his don't often bust out. But I get your point regarding positioned value.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

There could be a case made for Denney or McGuire. The Twins have had better luck with collegiate catchers recently and don't draft more than one or two catchers. From what I've gathered, the Twins didn't seem overly eager to go see either, so from that, I'm left them off of the list. (Looking through notes, I do have something on Denney: "Good player. Not going in first four picks, definite first rounder." But that was from a few weeks ago.)

 

Power arms - the Twins want to have a bullpen like the Royals, full of hard-throwing guys.

 

It's not that I'm necessarily low on Bryant; he's a big-power guy. From what I've heard (and I'm not going to guarantee it plays out this way), is that all of Bryant's value is in his bat. The Twins draft "toolsy" almost to a fault, so drafting a one (no more than two) tool guy at #4 seems far-fetched. (In fact, I got some early-season indication that the right-handed power bat that most impressed the Twins is Fresno State OF Aaron Judge, who also has more defensive skills than Bryant, but less of a overall hit tool.)

 

Appreciate the comments; good discussion.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

About Trey Ball... haven't heard much and haven't gotten any indications that he's even on the radar. But, again, things are pretty fluid around this time.

[Mike Sixel]

Whether or not the college relief pitchers are able to make the transition to starters isn't really a big concern to me. Of course it would be nice if even one of them could, but I think that having a system full of power relievers also has its benefits. Hopefully, it would allow the Twins to maintain a young cost controlled bullpen at the big league level which in turn would prevent them from overspending/trading for volatile bullpen guys. Of course, I could also see if having the opposite effect, where they are in contention but decide they don't want to trust the young guys down the stretch. But I'm going to pretend I didn't type that last sentence like I wish I could pretend they didn't trade Ramos for Crapps. Alas, I've digressed. Back to the draft discussion - I wouldn't mind seeing them continue to target power relief arms after their first couple picks.

It matters if you use high draft picks, and pass on guys that give you kore than 60 innings a year.....

[nicksaviking]

Nice analysis, thanks for all the effort.

 

I have to say though, the Twins can pay lip-service to the BPA myth all they want, but if they truely have Moran over Bryant, then it's all talk. Even if they feel Bryant will move to 1B, then they would just be weighing a 3B vs a 1B and clearly Bryant is the more talented player.

[mlhouse]

THe fantasy scenario is for Appel to fall to the Twins. I think the chances of Appel falling are a little greater than the 5% cited above because the top couple of teams just might prefer to pass on the financial demands. I would put the probability more in the range of 25%, but even with that would the Twins be the team to pull the trigger on the financial commitment? I think they would be fools to pass on Appel even with a $5 million trigger. Look at it this way. The probability of Appel being a better pitcher than the 4th-5h veteran starters we have been signing is very significant. Then, compare the cost of that prorated $5 million over 2-4 years and you see that this is the right financial move.

 

If Appel is not there, then I think the left hander Manaea needs to be the pick. I don't think he projects to be a top of the rotation guy, but he could be a very good left handed 2-3 starter, and if he can get his slider moving again have some upside over that.

 

I would pass on the Stewart because I think he will have financial leverage and he is just too far away, and the HS outfielders would just saturate the system.

[clutterheart]

If Appel is not there, then I think the left hander Manaea needs to be the pick. I don't think he projects to be a top of the rotation guy, but he could be a very good left handed 2-3 starter, and if he can get his slider moving again have some upside over that.

 

I would pass on the Stewart because I think he will have financial leverage and he is just too far away, and the HS outfielders would just saturate the system.

 

Manaea seems like Adam Johnson to me.

The way the system is set up right now, I almost wouldn't mind the team taking the highest upside HS arm available and hope like hell it works out.

 

This would be a big risk/reward type of move and is easy to say when its not my job on the line....But...I have not been blown away by anyone but Gray, Appel and Bryant. And I will be surprised if any of those guys are available when the twins pick.

 

So why not take the highest upside and hope it works?

[Pitz]

It matters if you use high draft picks, and pass on guys that give you kore than 60 innings a year.....

 

I'm not exactly sure how to respond other than to say I agree with you. I did say that the relief pitchers would be drafted after their first couple picks. I guess my point was that if the conversion to starting doesn't work out, hopefully they would still have valuable bullpen pieces. With a young and cost controlled bullpen, hopefully that would also allow the Twins to spend more for starting pitching in free agency. I know that their free agent spending is a topic of much contention, however and probably best left for another thread.

 

As far as the Twins first picks, I hope they are able to get a guy that will be able to fill a front of the rotation spot or at the very least a mid-rotation starter who will give them plenty of innings. While it would be pretty sweet to get Gray or Appel, I think I'd be fine with Stewart or Manaea.

None of the bats excite me too much with the #4 pick, but I'll also admit that I'm not very educated beyond what Jeremy has provided.

[kab21]

I think the Twins took the 4 college RP'ers last year because they were unimpressed with the HS arms that were available. They needed to add arms to the org and I think they wanted velocity also. While others say that there aren't many college RP'ers that turn into starters the Twins probably felt like the HS arms were similar longshots. And they can always become part of a potential power bullpen which would be really nice to have.

 

My concern with Manaea at #4 is that he still has inconsistent secondary pitches. A middle of the rotation arm at #4 is fine as downside but Manaea probably turns into a reliever if he doesn't make progress on those secondary pitches. That's not okay at #4.

[Badsmerf]

I'd be for Stewart or Denny. I want upside, and taking a little risk might be the only way to do it in this draft.

[cmb0252]

At 4 you don't take floor, you take someone you think can be a star. If you think an arm can be a top of the rotation guy take him. If not? Pass. Hopefully the Twins wont be drafting top 5 much longer but while they are, don't waste it.

[Kwak]

At 4 you don't take floor, you take someone you think can be a star. If you think an arm can be a top of the rotation guy take him. If not? Pass. Hopefully the Twins wont be drafting top 5 much longer but while they are, don't waste it.

The Twins need to adopt the philosophy of "reaching for stars" as opposed to the the "safe" picks. Stars make a team a winner, the "safe" guys just keep a team from failing enough to realize that there is a problem and not being able to select soon enough to get a high-profile draft choice. As far as jobs on the line? I don't recall there any bloodletting as a result of previous mistakes. It seems to me that they keep the same people year-after-year irrespective of results.

[Oxtung]

Taking Stewart would be against everything the Twins have always done but I like it. Take someone with true ace potential and hope for the best. For me is moving into that tier with Bryant/Frazier/Meadows and possibly Manaea. I feel uneasy about Manaea for some reason.

 

Welcome to the dark side kab. Welcome to the last home you'll ever need. Feed your obsession. We want only the best at #4.

[kab21]

What about Trey Ball? Big left handers don't grow on trees and his future looks to be on the mound as he's struggled a bit at the plate this year.

 

I think the problem with Trey Ball in the top 10 (definitely at #4) is that there is too much projection needed for him to be an MLB'er. He's 6'6" 175 and sits in the high 80's/low 90's area with his fastball. A guy like Stewart is already in the low to mid 90's and it sounds like his slider is better currently. Ball could end up being a great pitcher but his floor is someone that doesn't make it out of A ball. I don't mind taking risk but Ball is a little too risky for me and I'm not certain what his likely upside is.