Game Thread: Twins @ Royals 7:10 10/1/21

[Danchat]

We've reached the final series of the regular season, and the Twins will fight to avoid a 90 loss season. Today, it's time to run an old favorite of mine that I've done on several past Game Threads - it's time for a game of Strat-O-Matic Baseball! 

For those who don't know, Strat-O-Matic is a simulation board game that, well, simulates a game of baseball. Normally you'd need a deck of cards for each team, but I've come up with ways to develop my own player cards. As you can see below, here is what I have for the Twins and Royals rosters:

The numbers range from 1 to 8 or 1 to 5 based on their 2021 stats ( and recent years). I took the defensive values from fangraphs, and a few surprised me. Arraez is an above average fielding 3B? Sano might be the worst fielding 1B in baseball, apparently. Also, I did not know that Salvador Perez has hit 48 HRs this year! He's in 1st place, why haven't I heard about this?

Anyways, I will be playing a Strat-O-Matic game alongside the live game and see how things go. Last time I did, the 2019 Twins defeated the Yankees in the playoffs... in the game, of course, not real life. Ugh. Anyways, I hope you'll look forward to that!

Lineups

John Gant (R)
1. Luis Arraez (L) 3B
2. Byron Buxton (R) CF
3. Jorge Polanco (S) 2B
4. Josh Donaldson (R) DH
5. Max Kepler (L) RF
6. Miguel Sano (R) 1B
7. Brent Rooker (R) LF
8. Nick Gordon (L) SS
9. Ryan Jeffers (R) C

Jon Heasley (R)
1. Whit Merrifield (R) 2B
2. Nicky Lopez (L) SS
3. Salvador Perez (R) DH
4. Andrew Benintendi (L) LF
5. Carlos Santana (S) 1B
6. Hunter Dozier (R) RF
7. Adalberto Mondesi (S) 3B
8. Michael A. Taylor (R) CF
9. Cam Gallagher (R) C

 

[RickOShea]

Buxton's recent on field performance is pretty much sealing the Twins fate that he will go somewhere else.  It's turning out to be audition for any team that is willing to risk a boat load of money in signing him.  The Twins will not compete with the 'big boys'.  And you can't fault Byron for the opportunity of hitting the jackpot.  With his history of injuries, he has to get, while the getting's good.

[sampleSizeOfOne]

1 hour ago, Danchat said:

Also, I did not know that Salvador Perez has hit 48 HRs this year! He's in 1st place, why haven't I heard about this?

 

I knew it was in the 40s and led the league last i checked. Evidently the haven't *all* been hit against the Twins...

[sampleSizeOfOne]

What is the significance of red and green?

 

And i assume AA is considered faster than A, but this came from base stealing stats, and so the fact Buxton rarely steals third dings his rating?

[Danchat]

8 minutes ago, sampleSizeOfOne said:

What is the significance of red and green?

 

And i assume AA is considered faster than A, but this came from base stealing stats, and so the fact Buxton rarely steals third dings his rating?

It's Excel's Conditional Coloring, which simply highlights the higher numbers in green and the low numbers in red. It's just an easy visual representation of who is good at what.

Yes, AA is faster than A, but you make a good point. I was just looking at steals, but I should consider how often the player was actually caught. 

[mnfireman]

22 minutes ago, Danchat said:

It's Excel's Conditional Coloring, which simply highlights the higher numbers in green and the low numbers in red. It's just an easy visual representation of who is good at what.

Yes, AA is faster than A, but you make a good point. I was just looking at steals, but I should consider how often the player was actually caught. 

According to Baseball Savant, Buxton's sprint speed is 30.0 ft/sec, Gordon and Polanco 27.9 ft/sec; Merrifield is 28.6 ft/sec, Lopez, Dozier and Taylor are 28.2 ft/sec and Mondesi 28.1 ft/sec. 

[Danchat]

4 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

According to Baseball Savant, Buxton's sprint speed is 30.0 ft/sec, Gordon and Polanco 27.9 ft/sec; Merrifield is 28.6 ft/sec, Lopez, Dozier and Taylor are 28.2 ft/sec and Mondesi 28.1 ft/sec. 

I wasn't doing that much research for this. ?

It was due to the number of steals, since for whatever reason Buxton just isn't stealing bases very often. 

[mnfireman]

Also, Arraez is -1 Outs Above Average at 3B, so no, he is not "above average" at 3B. Or any defensive position for that matter.

[Danchat]

1 minute ago, mnfireman said:

Also, Arraez is -1 Outs Above Average at 3B, so no, he is not "above average" at 3B. Or any defensive position for that matter.

I was going by DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) and RZR (Revised Zone Rating), and Arraez was above average in both at 3B. If I took a deeper dive into the stats, I wouldn't be surprised to find that he's not as good as these two metrics say.

[mnfireman]

5 minutes ago, Danchat said:

I wasn't doing that much research for this. ?

It was due to the number of steals, since for whatever reason Buxton just isn't stealing bases very often. 

I spent 2 minutes on Baseball Savant

 

[mnfireman]

3 minutes ago, Danchat said:

I was going by DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) and RZR (Revised Zone Rating), and Arraez was above average in both at 3B. If I took a deeper dive into the stats, I wouldn't be surprised to find that he's not as good as these two metrics say.

It's all good, I was just busting your ⚾⚾

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, Danchat said:

 it's time for a game of Strat-O-Matic Baseball!

Three cheers for Hal Richman! (He invented the game.)

[Nine of twelve]

The Twins need to sweep the Royals in order to pass them for 4th place in the division. Gant is not helping his team here.

[RickOShea]

Goold job by Gant.  He's allowed a run without getting an out.. Good job!

[RickOShea]

Anyone warming up?   Oh, I forgot Baldelli wants the bullpen fresh going into the off-season.

[Danchat]

I think it's been clear for a while that Gant isn't going to work as a starter... hopefully next year he will be in the pen.

[RickOShea]

2 minutes ago, RickOShea said:

Anyone warming up?   Oh, I forgot Baldelli wants the bullpen fresh going into the off-season.

With no bullpen action, this is Baldelli's, 'I don't care or I don't" give a hoot' managerial style.  Just make sure I have enough gum to finish the game.

[Nine of twelve]

Think about this: the Cardinals were willing to give up Gant to get J.A. Happ.

J.A. Happ!

[RickOShea]

Gant is at 27+ pitches.  Is he trying to get in a bullpen session along with the start?

[Danchat]

Strat-O-Matic Report 1st Inning:

Arraez singles.

Buxton singles, Arraez to 2B.

Polanco strikes out.

Donaldson strikes out.

Kepler strikes out.

 

Bottom of 1st:

Merrifield doubles to right-center.

Lopez lines out to short. 

Perez grounds out to 3B.

Benintendi flies out to LF.

[Danchat]

2nd Inning:

Sano strikes out looking.

Rooker homers to left (MIN 1-0).

Gordon strikes out.

Jeffers singles.

Arraez walks, Jeffers to 2nd.

Buxton flies out to center.

 

Bottom of 2nd:

Santana grounds out to 2B. 

Dozier flies out to left.

Mondesi strikes out.

[sampleSizeOfOne]

33 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

Think about this: the Cardinals were willing to give up Gant to get J.A. Happ.

J.A. Happ!

Hey, don't knock it. Happ has done alright for 'em, winning more than he has lost...

 

And they are a wild card team, i believe, getting hot as it matters most, last i checked.

[sampleSizeOfOne]

17 minutes ago, Danchat said:

Rooker homers to left (MIN 1-0).

Way to go Rooker!

[sampleSizeOfOne]

In KC (where everything is up to date) they got a 4-0 lead after 3.

 

Projects to a 12-0 game.

[Danchat]

3rd inning report:

Buxton singles.
Buxton steals 2B.
Polanco grounds out.
Donaldson pops out.
Kepler singles, Buxton scores. (MIN 2-0)
Sano strikes out.

Bottom of 3rd:

Taylor walks.
Gallagher bunts, out at first, Taylor to 2B.
Merrifield walks.
Lopez singles, Taylor scores, Merrifield to 3B. (2-1)
Perez singles, Merrifield scores, Lopez to 3B. (2-2)
Benintendi doubles, Lopez scores, Perez to 3B (KCR 3-2).
Santana grounds out to 1B.
Dozier singles, Perez and Benintendi score (5-2).
Mondesi doubles, Dozier to 3B.
-- Coulombe now pitching
Taylor grounds out to pitcher.

 

Ouch. Now both games are looking grim.

[sampleSizeOfOne]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

Three cheers for Hal Richman! (He invented the game.)

Star of 2001?

 

"Daisy daisy, give me your answer, do..."

[Danchat]

4th inning report:

Rooker strikes out looking.

Gordon singles.

Jeffers strikes out.

Arraez strikes out.

 

Bottom of the 4th:

Gallagher flies out to right.

Merrifield grounds out to SS.

Lopez strikes out.

(Royals lead 5-2)

[glunn]

1 hour ago, Nine of twelve said:

The Twins need to sweep the Royals in order to pass them for 4th place in the division. Gant is not helping his team here.

It might be good to lose and get a better draft pick next year.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

21 minutes ago, sampleSizeOfOne said:

"Daisy daisy, give me your answer, do..."

I’m half crazy…

[ashbury]

8 minutes ago, Danchat said:

4th inning report:

Rooker strikes out looking.

Gordon singles.

Jeffers strikes out.

Arraez strikes out.

 

Bottom of the 4th:

Gallagher flies out to right.

Merrifield grounds out to SS.

Lopez strikes out.

(Royals lead 5-2)

Just checking in, and your score looks remarkably similar to reality.