2021 AL Wild Card race

[stringer bell]

Most likely scenario is Yankees and Red Sox win today and clinch their spots. New York would then go to Fenway for the wild card game. I'd love to see a three-way or four-way playoff for the last spot or spots. Go Jays, Mariners, Nats and Rays.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The Nationals may have the tallest order today. Not only do they have to beat Sale, the Nationals starting pitcher is making his MLB debut, with only 3 games at AA and 1 at AAA. He's not a top prospect either -- only 40 FV at Fangraphs, 22nd in the Nationals org (also 22nd at MLB.com).

[Otto von Ballpark]

538 has game-level odds, which take into account the starting pitchers, home field, etc. I don't know how good they are, but here are the relevant games for today:

TEAM	CHANCE OF WINNING	STARTING PITCHER	TEAM RATING	STARTING PITCHER ADJ.	TRAVEL, REST & HOME FIELD ADJ.	PREGAME TEAM RATING
Rays	49%	Wacha	1578	–14	0	1564
Yankees	51%	Taillon	1551	–2	24	1573
Padres	36%	Knehr	1518	–16	0	1502
Giants	64%	Webb	1561	14	24	1599
Red Sox	58%	Sale	1521	26	0	1547
Nationals	42%	Adon	1478	–7	24	1495
Orioles	31%	Zimmermann	1411	4	0	1415
Blue Jays	69%	Ryu	1545	–12	24	1557
Brewers	31%	Anderson	1542	–33	0	1509
Dodgers	69%	Buehler	1611	17	24	1652
Angels	42%	Detmers	1488	–17	0	1471
Mariners	58%	Anderson	1499	4	24	1527

[stringer bell]

Here we go! Everyone starts at the same time. 

[stringer bell]

Jays way up, Sox down 2-1, TB & NY no score and Mariners down 4-2. 

[stringer bell]

Also the Gigantes are poised to clinch the NL West, up 7-1. 
 

[stringer bell]

8 hours ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

The Nationals may have the tallest order today. Not only do they have to beat Sale, the Nationals starting pitcher is making his MLB debut, with only 3 games at AA and 1 at AAA. He's not a top prospect either -- only 40 FV at Fangraphs, 22nd in the Nationals org (also 22nd at MLB.com).

And the Nats are ahead in the 6th. Except for Twins-Yankees, you never know in baseball. 

[Squirrel]

Bos-Wash game is tied at 5; TB-NYY are tied in the 9th at 0; Jays still crushing the O's and Mariners are lagging behind the Angels

[Squirrel]

ooops ... and Yankees just won ... 1-0 ... so ... they are in. BOOOOOO! 

If the Red Sox win, then it's set ... if they lose and the Jays win ... 

[Twinfan603]

God I hate the Yankees...

[stringer bell]

Sox score two in the ninth to take the lead. I don’t hate them as much as NY and I’m glad they would host the Yankees if they win. 

[lecroy24fan]

The lack of actual chaos is disappointing.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

[tony&rodney]

The Mariners were fun to watch but certainly outplayed their expectations and it was really disappointing to have the Blue Jays fall just short of the playoffs. Although I preferred both of the prevously two mentioned teams we have to hand it to Boston and New York. Boston would seem to be on the verge of collapse repeatedly and rise up again. The Yankees keep churning out pitchers like Peralta, Holmes, German, Luetge, King, Abreu, Cortes, and Loaisiga. These unsung pitchers kept the Rays at bay until the big boys finally scratched a run across on a fielder's choice. The games were tight and ended in dramatic ninth inning fashion, a baseball fan's delight. It would have been a travesty to have the playoffs decided by Manfredball's ghost runner shenanigans. Fenway is a classic but, yah, I wish the Blue Jays and Mariners had gotten into the playoffs.

[Otto von Ballpark]

16 hours ago, lecroy24fan said:

The lack of actual chaos is disappointing.

It's interesting, most seasons have some chaos potential in their late stages -- and higher-percentage two-way ties too, not just longer-shot 4-way scenarios. But it all seems to sort itself out by the season's regularly scheduled end, and even mild chaos is generally averted.

2012 saw the introduction of the second wild card, theoretically expanding the potential for tiebreaker chaos, but we've only seen 3 tiebreaker games in that time: 2013 AL Wild Card #2, and one each for the 2018 NL Central and West. (And 2018 wasn't particularly chaotic, as the 5-team NL playoff field was set after game 162. The two game 163 losers just had to match up in the wild card game, like a little double-elimination tournament.) Additionally, the last single wild-card season (2011) had both the AL and NL wild card races go down to the wire but both were sorted (in dramatic fashion) on the season's final day.

I wonder, do most teams in that range either rise to the occasion or falter before tiebreakers are actually necessary?