Twins 40-Man Roster Crunch? Perhaps Not

[Major League Ready]

2 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Where does a guy like Griffen Jax fit into this equation ??

Depends on if the organization believes they can fix all that is wrong with our pitching and the rest of the team for that matter in free agency or trades for 2022.  Put another way, they could be influenced by their perceived chances of contending in 2022 VS putting a good product on the field in 2022 but under a strategy aimed at 2023.  Under that first premise, they go sign 2-3 FA SPs and Jax probably gets squeezed out.  He is either SP depth or in the BP.  If the organization sees there best chance at returning to contention and sustaining that success being dependent of developing a lot of pitching, they commit to that strategy by giving the plethora of SP prospects they have a shot.  This could mean they keep three spots open in 2022.  Jax / Ober / Barnes and perhaps Ryan will be the plan come spring training.  Winder /  Balazovic or Strotman could win a spot in spring training.  

Jax probably still gets moved the BP or traded as Balazovic / SWR / Duran / Canterino / Enlow make their way to the ML club.  So, the plan focused on 2023 would start with 3 of Jax / Ober / Barnes / Ryan but the 5 mentioned above will hopefully be good enough to take the place of the weakest link and the rotation looks quite different at the end of the season.  Best case scenario is we end up trading some young pitching or some of these guys end up effective BP arms.  The strategy aimed at 2023 likely means trading Donaldson in the off-season if possible and bringing Miranda up in 2022.  

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, whosafraidofluigirussolo said:

 

 

Although counting open spots for future free agents in the 40 is useful for this exercise, when the Twins org is actually managing their roster in the offseason, there's no need to hold spots open for free agents they're yet to sign - I think anyone besides the newly added players can be cut from the 40-man at any time. There may be some other rules about player movement on and off rosters in the offseason that I don't remember (?), but in general, they can (and probably will) keep a few more of those marginal/"maybe" guys early in the offseason but it won't stop them from making free agent additions.

Teams definitely keep places open for FAs. They can add and remove guys from the 40-man as they want in the offseason, but removing them still makes the player go through waivers. And the crappy teams with open 40-man spots would much rather take a kid off waivers and be able to move them up and down next season between the minors and majors than have to take the kid in the Rule 5 and keep them on the major league roster all year.

That doesn't necessarily mean they cut the Smeltzer's of the world immediately after the season. They "keep a spot open" by knowing they have someone like Smeltzer that they're willing to move on from if they find an upgrade. My list wasn't saying they should cut and add those specific players day 1 of the offseason, but those are the 35 (or 36) guys I'd have marked on my board as IN for next season and are only not on the 40-man at the Rule 5 deadline if I've found better players to replace them.

The Twins need to have an idea of who in the org they are putting on the 40-man. They need to know which guys are expendable. Then they use that information to make decisions in free agency and trades. They don't just cut borderline 40-man guys immediately, but they see if they can move them for a low level lottery ticket that clears a 40-man spot and adds talent to the system. So I don't mean literally having open spots on the 40-man the whole offseason, but knowing which guys are coming and going and not putting 40 guys on the 40-man that they're not willing to cut when they know they need to sign free agents.

[TopGunn#22]

Good Analysis Major League Ready.  Thanks !!

[Rosterman]

Yeah, the reality is that it may not be as big of a crunch as thought.

 

Regarding Enlow, something similar happened to Nick Burdi. He went on the 60-man, did a couple of rehabs, I think he was added to the roster in the final month. He spend most of the next season, also on the IL. But they got him some more major league time when they could, or the Twins just didn't want him back.

 

Which also brings up that if a team doesn't keep a Rule 5, and if the Twins don't want him back, he can still be grabbed by another team if they are willing to play by the Rule 5 rules.

 

The Twins also have a Rule 5 guy, Alejandro Machado, who was on the IL for a whole season, and when the Twins decided to cut him the next season, the Royals didn't take him beck. One of those guys that has been on the major league roster (25 man) and never appeared in a game with the Twins, like Tomas Tellis, Chuck Schilling and Carlos Torres from season's past.

 

Now regarding potential minor league free agents: I ask if they are better than ANYONE we have on the roster. Who would I be willing to jettison in favor of this guy that I can probably resign as a minor league free agent.

 

Also, looking at potential 40-man roster cuts. As a general manager outside the organization, would I leap at a chance to add Smeltzer to my own 40-man, or Stashak, or Burrows. And at the cost of what player.

 

Looking at Rule 5 candidates, would I, as a general manager, really waste one of my precious (and they are precious) 40-man spots on a player like Enlow. When players now go into Tommy John land, it can be almost two seasons of wasted time. They age in that time, fall further down the pecking order, or eventually run out of options like the Twins are facing with Thorpe. Is it worth the 40-man spot to gamble on a prospect? Sure, the Twins did it with Santana. The Tigers did it with Baddoo. And with 26-man rosters, you can take that gamble more these days, especially for a waaaay back of the bullpen arm that you may have to carry, eventually, for 90 days.

 

You gotta think on every player move...is this guy getter than someone I have to kick off the roster to add them. When will that player make the major leagues and actually help the organization. What would other organizations think of players that I am letting, basically, walk.

 

And I think injuries are going to play more-and-more into decisions on who to keep and not to keep. 

 

That and the missed minor league season. When you look, all these guys got one year older, had one less season of play, and there are a helluva a lot of players out there scrambling for jobs outside of those controlled by the organization.