Chris Parmelee 2013

[Lesser Dali]

I am curious to know what kind of line would constitute a successful season for Chris Parmelee this season from the TD Participant's point of view.

 

My successful expectation is the following

 

BA - .270

HR - 16

RBI - 70

OPS: .785

Defense (RF): Positively execute the Routine plays

[10PagesOfClearBlueSky]

I am curious to know what kind of line would constitute a successful season for Chris Parmelee this season from the TD Participant's point of view.

 

My successful expectation is the following

 

BA - .270

HR - 16

RBI - 70

OPS: .785

Defense (RF): Positively execute the Routine plays

 

.360 OBP or better. And he should bat 2nd.

[stringer bell]

I think Parmelee will be fine, both hitting and fielding. He doesn't have even average speed, so his range will be suspect, but he'll catch what he can get to and throw well enough. I think his numbers will be higher--around or over 20 homers with an OPS north of .800. He will be the Twins first baseman when Morneau is traded (IMHO a near certainty).

[Lesser Dali]

I think Parmelee will be fine, both hitting and fielding. He doesn't have even average speed, so his range will be suspect, but he'll catch what he can get to and throw well enough. I think his numbers will be higher--around or over 20 homers with an OPS north of .800. He will be the Twins first baseman when Morneau is traded (IMHO a near certainty).

 

I don't really want to speculate on the Trade Scenario. I went conservative on Parmelee's offensive output. I dig and hope what you have predicted on Parmelee comes to fruition!

[Oldgoat_MN]

I believe an OBP of .360 is optimistic.

Furthermore, I feel an OPS of less than .800 cries, "Arcia, come save us!".

 

No excuse for a starting RF of a good, competitive team, to OPS less than .800.

[Thrylos]

I believe an OBP of .360 is optimistic.

Furthermore, I feel an OPS of less than .800 cries, "Arcia, come save us!".

 

No excuse for a starting RF of a good, competitive team, to OPS less than .800.

 

That ^^^

[kab21]

It's not the steroid era anymore. League average OPS has dropped by 30-40 pts since 2008. An OPS of .775 is pretty good and Parmelee would be the least of the Twins' worries imo. At least aside from his defense... I also don't expect the Twins DH to hit much better than .775 either.

[jokin]

.360 OBP or better. And he should bat 2nd.

 

Yes, and Yes!

[DaveW]

Anything less than a .830 OPS is a failure in my eyes and puts us in a bad position moving fwd when morneau is gone

[kab21]

Anything less than a .830 OPS is a failure in my eyes and puts us in a bad position moving fwd when morneau is gone

 

Are you aware that there were only 40 MLB players that OPS'd >.830. And only 57 that were >.800. Anyone that expects Parmelee to be in either of those groups should prepare for disappointment.

[DaveW]

Are you aware that there were only 40 MLB players that OPS'd >.830. And only 57 that were >.800. Anyone that expects Parmelee to be in either of those groups should prepare for disappointment.

He is a first baseman moving forward, and an .830 OPS would put him just above average for the position (right by Chris Davis and Garrett Jones). Anything below .800 would put him below average for the position, and on a team like the Twins with question marks at numerous other positions they certainly need a good 1st baseman moving forward.

[Craig Arko]

Tony Oliva career OPS: 830

Kirby Puckett career OPS: 837

Kent Hrbek career OPS: 848

 

(Baseball reference .com)

 

Pretty heady company. I don't think Parm is quite at that level.

 

Maybe more like

 

Tom Brunansky career OPS : 761

[kab21]

He is a first baseman moving forward, and an .830 OPS would put him just above average for the position (right by Chris Davis and Garrett Jones). Anything below .800 would put him below average for the position, and on a team like the Twins with question marks at numerous other positions they certainly need a good 1st baseman moving forward.

 

Let's go through this a 3rd time. If you expect him to be average then you are probably going to be disappointed. He might be that good but it shouldn't be expected based on his entire (or even his recent) MiLB career.

[DaveW]

Tony Oliva career OPS: 830

Kirby Puckett career OPS: 837

Kent Hrbek career OPS: 848

 

(Baseball reference .com)

 

Pretty heady company. I don't think Parm is quite at that level.

 

Maybe more like

 

Tom Brunansky career OPS : 761

 

Well then he shouldn't be viewed as anything other than a short term solution. Puckett/Olivia etc had other skills they brought to the table other then their bats. Parmelee is basically a no field guy, zero speed etc, he needs to hit if he is going to be at 1st base.

[DaveW]

Let's go through this a 3rd time. If you expect him to be average then you are probably going to be disappointed. He might be that good but it shouldn't be expected based on his entire (or even his recent) MiLB career.

 

That's fine, but if he can't be at least average for a 1st baseman then the Twins need to consider resigning Morneau or bringing in someone who can.

[bcntwinsfan]

The head surgeons of the Mayo Clinic that comprise the Twins John Hopkin's- like training staff have concluded that his rectal discomfort is, in fact, an ingrown hair and not a result of riding too much pine. They have recommended a rigorous rest regimen that consists mostly of planking. My advanced metrics calculations have him at .780 OPS, with regression towards the mean (hair).

[kab21]

That's fine, but if he can't be at least average for a 1st baseman then the Twins need to consider resigning Morneau or bringing in someone who can.

While .830 might have been the median for 1Bman it should be noted that the average for the position was .778 last year.

 

Are we sure that Morneau can meet your expectations of 1Bman? Is the upgrade the best use of the team's resources? Yes, the Twins have money to spend but signing aging 1Bman to multiyear 10+M/yr contracts is really low on my list of things to do. Trading prospects for one is also a mistake. I have always said that Parmelee would just be a placeholder at 1B for the team. A solid player that you try to upgrade but it isn't absolutely necessary.

[cmathewson]

This is a tough one. I think he can be a productive hitter. But he's not a high-average hitter. .270 seems optimistic. On the other hand, he will take some walks. So his OBP could be around .350. I just don't see as much power out of him in Target Field. Doubles, yeah. Homers, not so much. His swing is like Kubel's. We saw how hard it was for Kubel to hit dingers in Target. I'm going to call a triple slash of .350/.450/800 with 16 homers and 80 RBIs. The RBIs come from hitting behind a resurgent Morneau and a solid Doumit.

[Mr. Brooks]

.268/.344/.440 16hr

[Alex]

Tony Oliva career OPS: 830

Kirby Puckett career OPS: 837

Kent Hrbek career OPS: 848

 

(Baseball reference .com)

 

Pretty heady company. I don't think Parm is quite at that level.

 

Maybe more like

 

Tom Brunansky career OPS : 761

 

Different era, but yeah, a career OPS at marks like Puck and Hrbeck would still put him as one of the greatest Twins ever. However, he's young and should be hitting for higher OPS now than he will 6 or 7 years from now (assuming he's still in the league.) Bruno was roughly a league average hitter for his era with an OPS+ of 106.

 

Parmelee is a starter, and I'd hope that league average wouldn't be too much to ask (especially as he only brings his bat and doesn't add much in terms of defense or speed). League average can be misleading.

 

For example of 25 1B who hit the "qualified" PA mark, 15 had an OPS of .800 or above. 13 RF (of 23) did so. So, more than half of the players playing these positions full time yield a production over .800 OPS. My guess is that some of those that didn't reach that mark bring more to the table than Pamelee does (Ben Revere, for example).

 

If he's in the neighborhood of .800 OPS, but a bit short in his full season, I think we should live with that, though.

[Aaron Cross]

I definitely think we can expect 20 & 75. I expect Mauer to be the future 1st baseman, so Parmelee's future is in RF or on another team. Hopefully he puts up good numbers giving the Twins flexibility to trade either him or Arcia to fill pitching/middle infield needs.

[Thrylos]

Tony Oliva career OPS: 830

Kirby Puckett career OPS: 837

Kent Hrbek career OPS: 848

 

(Baseball reference .com)

 

Pretty heady company. I don't think Parm is quite at that level.

 

Maybe more like

 

Tom Brunansky career OPS : 761

 

 

How about another one:

 

Jason Kubel career OPS .800

 

Anything less would be a disappointment for Parmelee (since he is part of the reason the Twins did not retain Kubel.)

[Siehbiscuit]

How about another one:

 

Jason Kubel career OPS .800

 

Anything less would be a disappointment for Parmelee (since he is part of the reason the Twins did not retain Kubel.)

 

I disagree that "anything less than a disappointment" portion of the statement. I think we all as fans expect our corner OFs to produce at a better clip than .800 OPS, but this is his first full-time gig in the Bigs. I think if he ends the year (or second half) showing that he can be in the lineup as a long-term option then I think we will all be happy. Parmalee is just a year removed from prospect status. He still has lots of upside. Realistically, I believe (based on 600 PA's) he can go .274/.347/.422. That is with 30 2B's, 1 3B, 24 HR's and 75 RBI. Oh and he would walk ~60x. This wouldn't be his career year, but a very solid step moving forward. His defense will not be very good. Not a bunch of errors, but very few good plays made. Total OPS .769.

[cmathewson]

I think you need to consider the time those players played. Here OPS+ is a much better metric to compare players than OPS. Oliva had a career OPS+ of 131, even after his later years. In his prime, 150 was common. If Parmelee puts up a 131 OPS+ in any given year, everybody would be happy.

[Brock Beauchamp]

You guys sure have a high bar for disappointment for a guy who has less than 300 Major League plate appearances.

 

If the guy hits with a league-average bat for RF (which is somewhere around .750, I'd wager), we should all be very happy with that. Moving forward, you'd like to see that number inch toward .800 but not in his first full season of play. That's just unreasonable.

[stringer bell]

Parmelee just turned 25 last month. I think putting up an .800 OPS as a 25 year old in his first full season would be very good and it could be expected for him to continue to get better. I saw Parm make as good a home run saving catch as you're likely to see, so I guess that filters my pessimism about his glove, but I see him as primarily a first baseman throughout his career.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think he can OPS between .800 and .850 and hit 20-30 home runs.

[70charger]

I think there are some parallels between Parmelee now, in his first full season, with bad L/R splits, and Morneau last year in his first season back from concussion issues, with bad L/R splits.

 

I doubt Parmelee cracks an .800 OPS, and I won't be disappointed as long as he at least comes close. I think a reasonable expectation for him would be roughly what Morneau did last year - .779. And I think that, like Morneau, if he shows a good deal of improvement over the course of the year, we have nothing to worry about moving forward.