Article: Position Analyis: First Base

[Mr. Brooks]

True, he could get a concussion without playing a single game after accepting a QO. I'd still be inclined to take the risk if he stayed healthy and productive throughout 2013. I mean, EVERY player poses a season-ending injury risk.

 

You dont think some players posses greater risk than others?

And he wouldnt have to suffer the injury before playing a single game to give you zero production, he'd just have to be producing at replacement level or below at the time.

[bird]

Except the trending imperative since 2010 has been to let pending FAs walk or trade for little in return (Liriano) and cut payroll. As intriguing as it might be, I doubt playing QO poker with Morneau is a game that Ryan is willing/able to participate in.

Not sure what a trending imperative is, but if getting Eduardo Escobar and Pedro Hernandez in exchange for that frustrating headcase Liriano is a trending imperative, sign me up.

[bird]

To make clear, I'm not a Morneau hater. If he comes back to his old form, nothing would please me more. The reality is, the direction the team is headed towards is getting a lot younger with legit, minimum-wage, cost-controlled prospects champing at the bit at Morneau's 2 potential positions. The evidence is overwhelming that this is coupled with a return to an overall lean, mean payroll- ie, Smith was out when he actually thought ownership meant it about an open checkbook- Ryan was brought back to shed salary, find cheaper, reliable replacements in the process and keep a positive cash flow until the next up-cycle. It's highly unlikely, no matter how well Justin performs, that Morneau is considered to be part of the pending up-cycle, unless he willingly takes Ryan's lowball offer.

 

This is total bunk, but I'll give yoiu credit for your consistency, jokin.

[bird]

You dont think some players posses greater risk than others?

And he wouldnt have to suffer the injury before playing a single game to give you zero production, he'd just have to be producing at replacement level or below at the time.

If Morneau gets through 2013 injury-free and is productive, then his 2014 injury risk is lessened, don't you think? This 2013 scenario appears to be quite possible, given his spring performance. So, if he doesn't fetch an overwhelming return at the trade deadline, it's nice that the Twins could make a QO and quite possibly enjoy yet another productive year from him in 2014. The greater risks would be a longer-term contract or a "forced" deadline trade for a poor return. If we trade him this summer, my hope is they buy a real prospect or two by taking on his salary for a cash-strapped club, of which there are many.

[Mr. Brooks]

If Morneau gets through 2013 injury-free and is productive, then his 2014 injury risk is lessened, don't you think? This 2013 scenario appears to be quite possible, given his spring performance. So, if he doesn't fetch an overwhelming return at the trade deadline, it's nice that the Twins could make a QO and quite possibly enjoy yet another productive year from him in 2014. The greater risks would be a longer-term contract or a "forced" deadline trade for a poor return. If we trade him this summer, my hope is they buy a real prospect or two by taking on his salary for a cash-strapped club, of which there are many.

 

No, the risk is not lessened. This is a brain injury, not a broken rib. The risk will ALWAYS be there for Justin.

If Morneau gets another concussion, he's likely done, by HIS OWN admission. That is not the case for most players.

I'm not even saying that Morneau is more likely to get another concussion (although there is medical evidence that he is), I'm saying if he gets another one, that's likely it for him, whether it happens tomorrow or in 5 years.

[Nick Nelson]

If Morneau gets through 2013 injury-free and is productive, then his 2014 injury risk is lessened, don't you think? This 2013 scenario appears to be quite possible, given his spring performance.

Agreed. If Morneau plays 150 games this year I don't think teams will shy away from a multi-year deal based on his injury risk. The guy was previously one of the most durable players in the league, let's not forget.

[FrodaddyG]

Agreed. If Morneau plays 150 games this year I don't think teams will shy away from a multi-year deal based on his injury risk. The guy was previously one of the most durable players in the league, let's not forget.

But with the recent focus on concussions throughout sports, a guy with his history is going to get viewed differently than say, a guy who has had TJS. One ailment physically heals, the other is still a largely unknown quantity, and Morneau hasn't just had one incident with head injuries.

 

"Durability" isn't really being called into question. It isn't how well he bounces back from or avoids typical injuries. It's the fact that his head is one hit away from not just missing time, but probably ending his career. His last concussion didn't subside, by Morneau's own statements, for two years. And as the 2010 concussion showed, it doesn't take an NFL-level "WR-lit-up-on-a-crossing-route-by-a-free-safety" shot to bring head issues back. One minor collision on a slide gave him issues across multiple seasons, and the team that thinks about ponying up for him has to know in the back of their mind that another one of those is the likely end of their investment. That may make it tough for him to see much beyond year-to-year or a two year deal at best, just due to teams minimizing salary risk on a guy who won't exactly be making the league minimum wherever he ends up.

[TheLeviathan]

Agreed. If Morneau plays 150 games this year I don't think teams will shy away from a multi-year deal based on his injury risk. The guy was previously one of the most durable players in the league, let's not forget.

 

Wouldn't something like Laroche be more likely? I can't imagine anyone gives Morneau more than three. I'd be surprised by even three years. As kab said earlier, the market the last few years hasn't been that lucrative for corner OFs/1B.

[jokin]

This is total bunk, but I'll give yoiu credit for your consistency, jokin.

 

Nice job, calling facts "bunk" does not an argument to the counter-point make. Please try again and attempt to descredit one fact-based assertion presented, if you dare.

 

Let me help you with an outline:

 

1) Is the team getting younger? Check

2) Is the payroll on a downward trajectory, as the club stated it would do? Check

3) Was Smith out when he wanted to increase payroll?Check

4) Has Ryan- shed salary, found replacements and attempted to maintain cash flow?Check

5) Based on the Twins machinations and potential cheap hole-fillers at positons Justin can play, is Morneau likely to be in on the Twins future plans without a significant paycut? Check

 

Have at an attempt at de"bunk"ing, if you can.

[jokin]

If Morneau gets through 2013 injury-free and is productive, then his 2014 injury risk is lessened, don't you think? This 2013 scenario appears to be quite possible, given his spring performance. So, if he doesn't fetch an overwhelming return at the trade deadline, it's nice that the Twins could make a QO and quite possibly enjoy yet another productive year from him in 2014. The greater risks would be a longer-term contract or a "forced" deadline trade for a poor return. If we trade him this summer, my hope is they buy a real prospect or two by taking on his salary for a cash-strapped club, of which there are many.

 

Cite the evidence that makes any of your proposals more than a pathetic entry to the Make-A-Wish Foundation that, when passed on to the Twins, would undoubtedly end up in the circular file over at 1 Twins Way.

 

You do realize that concussion risk never goes away, right? Serious diminishment of value, regardless of his on-field performance.

 

Cite a comp trade for an older 1B with serious concussion issues that yielded a big-time prospect.

 

When was the last time the Twins extended a legit QO?

 

When was the last time that the Twins ate a contract to get the prospect that they wanted?

[old nurse]

I think that Colabello will be more likely than Clement at this point...

 

Are you the kiss of death for a borderline player making the team? You like Romero and now he is stuck without a visa

[jokin]

Agreed. If Morneau plays 150 games this year I don't think teams will shy away from a multi-year deal based on his injury risk. The guy was previously one of the most durable players in the league, let's not forget.

 

And so was Corey Koskie....or did you forget?

[jokin]

Not sure what a trending imperative is, but if getting Eduardo Escobar and Pedro Hernandez in exchange for that frustrating headcase Liriano is a trending imperative, sign me up.

 

It's always a good thing to trade a player at his perceived maximum value, and not when your team's circumstances, and/or the player's ineptitude force the issue. GM 101.

 

Don't tell me that the Twins didn't have their chances on moving Liriano multiple times previously.

[jokin]

I don't get the angst over Morneau. He was an MVP calliber hitter before that injury. No one is saying his 2006-2010 seasons were flukes. It was clear he was not the same in 2011 with injury after injury and returning from that concussion, and it's undisputed that he was still not the same at the start of 2012. Unlike 2011 and 2012, Morneau looks good this spring. He's hitting well and he's no longer scared. I don't get what people are worried about. He's going to post an OPS around .900, and baring any other injury (and an absolute flop by Arcia, Parmalee, and Benson), he'll be traded at the deadline. The question as I see it is whether the Twins will try to bring him back. I personally would, as they will still need help at DH as the next wave arrives. Having Morneau and Parmalee rotate between 1st and DH makes a ton of sense.

 

You've just nailed the best-case scenario, hopefully it comes to pass.

[Nick Nelson]

Five of the last six posts all from the same person. Impressive work.

[jokin]

Five of the last six posts all from the same person. Impressive work.

Is that supposed to be a criticism?, or simply a function of the lack of late-night traffic might suffice as the explantion?

[Ultima Ratio]

Justin Island of Morneau will earn a trip to the All-Star game this year. That's not a fact.... yet....

[PseudoSABR]

That Morneau is somehow an unknown quantity is fascinating, isn't it? The truth is he's not really that old, and he really does have the capacity to just put up monster numbers. Doesn't he seem okay, now?--even including our scumbag neurologist assessments (from video, from hearsay, from interview)?

 

Maybe he's ****ed, but maybe the guy is just who he's been, which might be awesome.

[ericchri]

If Morneau puts up an OPS of around .850 or more for a full season, he's probably worth that QO (the Twins can certainly afford it next year). He's always going to have the concussion issue dragging down his value, but he's had plenty of other nagging injuries during the last few years as well that have sapped his production. Both of those added together mean he's unlikely to get much for long-term offers from anybody, I would think, but short-term deals he would have the potential to provide pretty good value. If he's actually healthy barring the concussion risk, he can be close to dominant.

 

The biggest problem with Morneau is essentially Parmelee and Arcia. One of the three of Willingham, Morneau, or Parmelee almost has to get traded this season to make room for Arcia. But if Willingham was the one to get traded and Morneau has a great season, it wouldn't bother me to see the Twins offer him up another year to potentially get the draft choice if he became a FA or keep him around if Morneau wanted to stay.

[old nurse]

Wouldn't something like Laroche be more likely? I can't imagine anyone gives Morneau more than three. I'd be surprised by even three years. As kab said earlier, the market the last few years hasn't been that lucrative for corner OFs/1B.

Unless you are one of the top players , almost no one gets more than a three year contract lately. In terms of not lucrative, Fielder, Pujols, Swisher, Hunter and Victorino would disagree with you.

[TheLeviathan]

Unless you are one of the top players , almost no one gets more than a three year contract lately. In terms of not lucrative, Fielder, Pujols, Swisher, Hunter and Victorino would disagree with you.

 

I'm sorry, but why be condescending when it's your point that totally misses the context of the discussion? Victorino is likely a CF and lumping Morneau in the Fielder/Pujols category is just silly. So you have two relevant examples, both of whom don't have the health concerns Morneau does and, in Swisher, more position versatility.

 

If Morneau bounces back (and I'm really feeling positive about him) I think he'll have trouble getting more than a two year deal. Which is what the Laroche example I was suggesting was leading to - 2 years 24M with a mutual option. That seems about right for Morneau in a bounceback, I don't expect more than that on the open market.

[Mr. Brooks]

I'm sorry, but why be condescending when it's your point that totally misses the context of the discussion? Victorino is likely a CF and lumping Morneau in the Fielder/Pujols category is just silly. So you have two relevant examples, both of whom don't have the health concerns Morneau does and, in Swisher, more position versatility.

 

If Morneau bounces back (and I'm really feeling positive about him) I think he'll have trouble getting more than a two year deal. Which is what the Laroche example I was suggesting was leading to - 2 years 24M with a mutual option. That seems about right for Morneau in a bounceback, I don't expect more than that on the open market.

 

Not that it matters much to the context of this discussion, but I'm pretty sure Victorino is going to play RF for Boston.

[TheLeviathan]

Not that it matters much to the context of this discussion, but I'm pretty sure Victorino is going to play RF for Boston.

 

You're correct, because of Ellsbury. I think it's safe to say comping Victorino and Morneau just doesn't feel right though, IMO.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I suspect someone will be willing to take on the risk associated with a 3 year deal should Morneau be healthy and productive. It would either result in a bit lower annual amount than what he'd get otherwise, option years, or a concussion clause in the contract giving the team an out should he suffer a concussion in 2014 or 2015.

[Mr. Brooks]

I suspect someone will be willing to take on the risk associated with a 3 year deal should Morneau be healthy and productive. It would either result in a bit lower annual amount than what he'd get otherwise, option years, or a concussion clause in the contract giving the team an out should he suffer a concussion in 2014 or 2015.

 

The MLBPA would never allow that.

[bird]

Nice job, calling facts "bunk" does not an argument to the counter-point make. Please try again and attempt to descredit one fact-based assertion presented, if you dare.

 

Let me help you with an outline:

 

1) Is the team getting younger? Check

2) Is the payroll on a downward trajectory, as the club stated it would do? Check

3) Was Smith out when he wanted to increase payroll?Check

4) Has Ryan- shed salary, found replacements and attempted to maintain cash flow?Check

5) Based on the Twins machinations and potential cheap hole-fillers at positons Justin can play, is Morneau likely to be in on the Twins future plans without a significant paycut? Check

 

Have at an attempt at de"bunk"ing, if you can.

 

jokin, my dear brother, let'd review the difference between facts and your opinion, OK?

 

In the bunk-filled comment I responded to, you set forth two facts:

 

1. The team is moving toward a roster of younger, cost-controlled players.

2. As a result of this, and perhaps other factors which are open for dispute, the payroll is lower this season, which means payroll has declined each of the last two years.

 

What's clearly open for dispute is whether the Twins have some evil master plan that is behind these two facts. Your opinion is that they are evil and deceptive. This, jokin, is a FACT in your little world, but it is not commonly regarded as factual. You do NOT have overwhelming evidence of this, or of your other opinions that you consider to be facts, to-wit:

 

1. Smith was ousted because he misinterpreted things and thought he had an open checkbook?

 

2. Ryan was brought back in ostensibly to shed payroll and generate a positive cash flow?

 

3. Morneau will not be part of the future unless he accepts Ryan's "lowball offer"?

 

You're entitled to your opinion, jokin, but you shouls expect to get called out when you present them as facts. Because in the opinion of others, this is bunk.

[jokin]

jokin, my dear brother, let'd review the difference between facts and your opinion, OK?

 

In the bunk-filled comment I responded to, you set forth two facts:

 

1. The team is moving toward a roster of younger, cost-controlled players.

2. As a result of this, and perhaps other factors which are open for dispute, the payroll is lower this season, which means payroll has declined each of the last two years.

A) What's clearly open for dispute is whether the Twins have some evil master plan that is behind these two facts. Your opinion is that they are evil and deceptive.

B)This, jokin, is a FACT in your little world, but it is not commonly regarded as factual. You do NOT have overwhelming evidence of this, or of your other opinions that you consider to be facts, to-wit:

 

C) 1. Smith was ousted because he misinterpreted things and thought he had an open checkbook?

 

D) 2. Ryan was brought back in ostensibly to shed payroll and generate a positive cash flow?

 

E) 3. Morneau will not be part of the future unless he accepts Ryan's "lowball offer"?

 

F)You're entitled to your opinion, jokin, but you shouls expect to get called out when you present them as facts. Because in the opinion of others, this is bunk.

 

In regards to:

 

A) Thanks for explaining to me what my position is. In point of fact, your fevered imagination and stultifying knee-jerk defense of your cocktail crowd had grossly mischaracterized it- to the point that your posts are becoming a self-parody of the Anti-Conspiracy-Conspiracist. Earth to Birdwatcher- Dr. Evil was a parody-figure and Terry Ryan is not Stavro Blofeld, either. As hard as it is for you to believe in your cloistered world, there are rational Twins fans out there that understand that the MN Twins are a business, and that there are sound reasons for making the decisions that were outlined in Points 1 and 2. Just because some fans might prefer a different direction, it doesn't make them "right" or the Twins FO "evil", come down off your high horse, already. "Other factors open for dispute"? The evidence is clear that high-priced salaries were purposefully being swept from the books- and that FA with actual impact talent were not going to be even sought after, let alone signed. You yourself once stated that you would join me if the Twins failed to make a legitimate effort to acquire legitimate impact SP talent, we all know the result.

 

Of course, it follows that your next statement is a complete non-sequitur. It's difficult to try to make any comprehensible sense out of this mish-mash, other than an obtusely feeble attempt at be"littl"ing the facts staring at you from straight across the table.

 

C) Smith's ouster, soon after his initial vote of confidence from Jim Pohlad has widely been reported to be based on Smith wanting to continue in the same direction concerning the payroll and JP having the final vote. Did you hear something different at an offseason Pohlad soiree'? If so, it's time for you to do some reporting.

 

D) Mis-statement of my actual factual statement: To wit, "Has Ryan- shed salary, found replacements and attempted to maintain cash flow?" Yup.

 

E) Does anyone- but of course, yourself and the Pauline Kael-esque high brow set- doubt that how the Twins have dealt with almost every pending high-price FA in the past is indicative of how they will behave in the future?

 

It is factual that the Twins have ready and very cheap replacements at First Base and DH.

It is factual that the Twins "play the game" about re-signing their top-dollar players who have matured beyond their arb years- but push below-the-market offers to do so.

The evidence around the league suggests that the demand for Morneau's services at his existing salary structure is soft and that comparables are earning less- and much less- when there's the ever-looming danger that a soft slide into second base will result in catastrophic and uninsurable injury.

 

F) In light of this FAIL on your part, I'm still waiting for your "call-out", (Usually a call-out requires documentable counter-arguments, must have slipped your mind). If you prefer to have your "bunk"mates do your dirty work, have your "others" get back to my "others", brother Twins fan.