Game Recap: Twins 2, Royals 1

[Mike Sixel]

22 hours ago, h2oface said:

Great hitters, throughout the history of the game, have been able to control where the ball goes when they hit it. Pulling, hitting to the opposite field, hitting in the shift to where they aren't... Rod Carew certainly comes to mind as I saw him do it his whole career.  I think the assumption stated as fact that you can't control where you hit the ball is just not true. Some can't. For some it is just the goal to touch the ball as well as you can. The truly great hitters seem to have more motive and success. I will take soft contact for a hit anyday over hitting it 95 mph right at someone, and will continue to declare a hit a better at bat than hitting the ball hard with a poor outcome.

If hitters could control where the ball went, their batting average would be ridiculously higher. I really don't think it is as easy as you think. As a matter of fact, I'll bet you anything that if we ask players, coaches, and analysts, they'll back me up. Maybe you can try to hit it to right, but to hit it to right and not at the fielder, or where the fielder can catch it? No way.

[Mike Sixel]

8 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

I would still prefer a ball that is hit only 50 MPH and falls in for a hit and scores a runner.  And, yes, I'm 74 years old.

We all would, but the data tells us that a hard hit ball is more likely to be a hit.....If you want to know what is likely to happen in the future (say, if you ran a team), you'd want the data that tells you what is likely to happen in the future, not the luck that happened in the past.

[Mike Sixel]

20 minutes ago, h2oface said:

The same people that claim RBI are meaningless and outdated, like to use Batting average with RISP with great importance. I guess they are important to a team, but not important that an individual actually steps up to the added pressure and delivers. Go figure........... 

?

No, if you go to Fangraphs or other places, that is not what they would say about BA with RISP. They'd say that sample size is smaller compared to overall batting numbers, and that that those numbers are 1000000x better at predicting the future. 

[h2oface]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

?

No, if you go to Fangraphs or other places, that is not what they would say about BA with RISP. They'd say that sample size is smaller compared to overall batting numbers, and that that those numbers are 1000000x better at predicting the future. 

One Million times. hmmmm. I guess you don't see the irony that I do. Well, we all know about predictive stats, and how they can be bet on and how well they predict the future. I guess I can buy tickets to the playoffs now. The Twins were predicted to be one of the 5 best teams and headed for the playoffs. This all must be just a dream. 

 

[jimbo92107]

On 6/6/2021 at 4:36 PM, mikelink45 said:

A good team should win close games and pitchers duels, but we are playing the bottom teams and for us to barely win the games we are not blown out in is not a good sign.  I do like having Ober pitch today and I understand what the writer says about him getting hit harder as the game goes on, but part of learning how to be a starter is to learn how to handle situations like this and to work through them.  

Good thing about Ober is that his stuff is naturally different, coming from that higher release point. Also, he can make adjustments easier than some others because of his ability/willingness to throw strikes with each pitch. Some Twins pitchers seem to go through spells where they can't find the zone at all. I have not yet seen Ober go through one of those spells. Big props just for that.

[terrydactyls]

4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

We all would, but the data tells us that a hard hit ball is more likely to be a hit.....If you want to know what is likely to happen in the future (say, if you ran a team), you'd want the data that tells you what is likely to happen in the future, not the luck that happened in the past.

Maybe you should play Strat-O-Matic Baseball.  It's all about statistics and probability, but very little about real life.

 

[USAFChief]

On 6/7/2021 at 10:17 AM, joefish said:

You are not the only "old schooler" on here who could not care less about those numbers. 

I push them aside like the cold canned peas my parents used to try to make me eat as a kid.

I still push them aside, when the nice orderly tries to make me eat them in the home.

[USAFChief]

21 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

If hitters could control where the ball went, their batting average would be ridiculously higher. I really don't think it is as easy as you think. As a matter of fact, I'll bet you anything that if we ask players, coaches, and analysts, they'll back me up. Maybe you can try to hit it to right, but to hit it to right and not at the fielder, or where the fielder can catch it? No way.

Nobody can "control" exactly where the ball goes, but many RH MLB hitters used to be able to hit a ground ball to the right side on a hit and run at a rate considerably higher than "random chance."

The idea that a LH hitter can't learn how to consistently bunt hard down the third base line, or regularly take an outside pitch to left, is pretty questionable. 

The thing is, somebody has to decide things like that are important. That swinging from the heels at every pitch, in any count, in any situation, isn't the best way to play offense. 

Somebody, somewhere will, and soon. And it'll take a little time, but it'll work, and all the analysts at Fangraphs will marvel at the new way to play. Which won't be new.

Shifts didn't just happen recently because nobody thought of them before. They wouldn't have worked, because players could handle a bat.

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Nobody can "control" exactly where the ball goes, but many RH MLB hitters used to be able to hit a ground ball to the right side on a hit and run at a rate considerably higher than "random chance."

The idea that a LH hitter can't learn how to consistently bunt hard down the third base line, or regularly take an outside pitch to left, is pretty questionable. 

The thing is, somebody has to decide things like that are important. That swinging from the heels at every pitch, in any count, in any situation, isn't the best way to play offense. 

Somebody, somewhere will, and soon. And it'll take a little time, but it'll work, and all the analysts at Fangraphs will marvel at the new way to play. Which won't be new.

Shifts didn't just happen recently because nobody thought of them before. They wouldn't have worked, because players could handle a bat.

Sure, but that's not what the post I responded to said, at all. He said ballplayers should all be like Carew, one of the greatest hitters of all time, at controlling the batted ball. That's just not realistic. 

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Sure, but that's not what the post I responded to said, at all. He said ballplayers should all be like Carew, one of the greatest hitters of all time, at controlling the batted ball. That's just not realistic. 

I don't think that's what he meant. And it's not at all what you said.

[Mike Sixel]

6 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I don't think that's what he meant. And it's not at all what you said.

I said that players can't control hitting it to right, not at the fielder. I'll say it again, people really underestimate the role of luck in hitting the ball not at a fielder. It just isn't easy to hit the ball where you want, or more guys would do it. And we wouldn't be complaining about offense. Do people think that the same FOs that figured out to improve pitching aren't working on doing it for hitting, and would teach "hit it where it can't be caught" if they could?

[USAFChief]

6 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I said that players can't control hitting it to right, not at the fielder. I'll say it again, people really underestimate the role of luck in hitting the ball not at a fielder. It just isn't easy to hit the ball where you want, or more guys would do it. And we wouldn't be complaining about offense. Do people think that the same FOs that figured out to improve pitching aren't working on doing it for hitting, and would teach "hit it where it can't be caught" if they could?

I believe if hitters chose to, they could certainly punish shifts to a degree that would make shifts counterproductive.