Keith Law Top 40 Free Agents '20-21

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

Law's list is on The Athletic and paywalled, so I won't repost too much out of respect for that arrangement, but a few snippets of note.

 

Cruz is #20 on his top 40. The writeup says things we probably all know:

"The two best seasons of his career by rate stats [came] in 2019 and 2020, when he was at an age when most hitters have retired...His average exit velocity did slip last year...he carries the risk of injuries and of sudden decline, but on a one-year deal he’s probably a good bet for a 3-win season."

 

Odorizzi is #23:

"In his first two years in Minnesota, 2018 and 2019, he threw 323 1/3 innings of above-average ball, averaging barely over five innings a start... Without a real knockout offering, though, he has to pitch at the top end of his command and control range, which he did in 2019. ... it’s perplexing that he hasn’t done [that] more often; he almost certainly is what he is at this point, though, and should see one-year offers in the mid-teens."

 

May didn't make the top 40. A few other relievers did: Hendriks at #21, and Shane Greene, Alex Colomé, Jeremy Jeffress, and Blake Treinen in the high 20s to mid 30s.

 

Law ranked Marcus Stroman #4, calling him "the only other pitcher in this year’s class with a strong claim to No. 1 starter potential besides Bauer." That surprised me, as I think of Stroman as good but not generally considered ace-like.

 

Also interesting was the ranking of Korean infielder Ha-Seong Kim at #17 (I think he's much higher at Fangraphs.) Law says Kim has been "one of the better hitters in Korea’s major league for several years now," has played SS and 3B there, might project as a 2B, 3B, or super-utility infielder, and might have some trouble with MLB velocity. The last part is a real caution but everything else sounds pretty intriguing given the Twins' need for a good backup infielder.

[darin617]

With the way the market for FA's this winter will be dramatically lower than most expect I cannot see Odorizzi commanding over $10M and no possible way he reaches the low teens. It's going to be a classic year of 1 year deals all over unless a guy is a complete stud.

[twinsfanstreif]

 

Law says Kim has been "one of the better hitters in Korea’s major league for several years now"

 

 

I feel like I've heard this one before

[Trov]

I find the Stroman comment interesting.  It may state how bad the FA starting pitching is behind Bauer, or could be high on Stroman.  Just ranking him 4th overall and second starting pitcher is not saying he is an Ace.  It is just saying he is ranked second best.  I mean if all you have to choose from is lower tier starters being called the only other strong canidate to be considered a number 1 is not saying much.  It is just saying he is better than the other low level starters on the list.  

 

That was something players ran into a few years ago when the class was weak, but the players still wanted to be paid like it was strong.  NBA has this happen where players get overpaid because they best available in the class.  MLB was for years too, each "best" player in the FA class would get record setting deals, but then MLB teams were like okay if next year I can pick from the best steakhouses to eat at, instead the of best fast food places at streakhouse prices, I am going to hold off and eat at steakhouse for steakhouse price, not fast food at steakhouse price. They were thinking long term how a huge deal on ehhh guy will hurt you in years 3-7 of that deal, depending on length. 

[nicksaviking]

I'm probably going to be on an island with this one, but I don't want anything to do with Marcus Stroman, particularly if he's going to get a long term deal.

[Dodecahedron]

Odorizzi is Pavstache 2.0 ... just let him go and let his constant clownish injuries be someone else's problem. He gave the Twins a good year, celebrate that and let him go elsewhere.

[rdehring]

Count me among those who, 1) want nothing to do with Stroman, and 2) looking forward to the Twins bringing Odorizzi back, preferably on a one-year deal at $10M or a bit higher. Odorizzi many not be an ACE, but he is more than solid. Yes, there have been injuries, but the big one last summer was a line drive off his ribs I believe. You can't blame that one on him.

[Doctor Gast]

Stoman is ranked as 2nd tier on mlb.com. This will be a terrible year for FAs, IMO it`ll be ridiculous unless you`re 1st tier & still they`ll be disappointed. My guess ODO could get around $10K / 1yr.

[Doctor Gast]

 

I find the Stroman comment interesting.  It may state how bad the FA starting pitching is behind Bauer, or could be high on Stroman.  Just ranking him 4th overall and second starting pitcher is not saying he is an Ace.  It is just saying he is ranked second best.  I mean if all you have to choose from is lower tier starters being called the only other strong canidate to be considered a number 1 is not saying much.  It is just saying he is better than the other low level starters on the list.  

 

That was something players ran into a few years ago when the class was weak, but the players still wanted to be paid like it was strong.  NBA has this happen where players get overpaid because they best available in the class.  MLB was for years too, each "best" player in the FA class would get record setting deals, but then MLB teams were like okay if next year I can pick from the best steakhouses to eat at, instead the of best fast food places at streakhouse prices, I am going to hold off and eat at steakhouse for steakhouse price, not fast food at steakhouse price. They were thinking long term how a huge deal on ehhh guy will hurt you in years 3-7 of that deal, depending on length. 

I prefer steak at fast food prices

[Ben Noble]

I find the Stroman comment interesting.  It may state how bad the FA starting pitching is behind Bauer, or could be high on Stroman.  Just ranking him 4th overall and second starting pitcher is not saying he is an Ace.  It is just saying he is ranked second best.  I mean if all you have to choose from is lower tier starters being called the only other strong canidate to be considered a number 1 is not saying much.  It is just saying he is better than the other low level starters on the list.  

 

That was something players ran into a few years ago when the class was weak, but the players still wanted to be paid like it was strong.  NBA has this happen where players get overpaid because they best available in the class.  MLB was for years too, each "best" player in the FA class would get record setting deals, but then MLB teams were like okay if next year I can pick from the best steakhouses to eat at, instead the of best fast food places at streakhouse prices, I am going to hold off and eat at steakhouse for steakhouse price, not fast food at steakhouse price. They were thinking long term how a huge deal on ehhh guy will hurt you in years 3-7 of that deal, depending on length.

 

And since our cooking skills have improved, we can eat well at home while saving money (Kirilloff, Larnach), and afford the surf and turf when we do go out to eat. I want Bauer.

[DocBauer]

I have nothing but respect for Stoman. But to be ranked that high tells me either a personal bias/like or a reflection of a poor/average market.

 

I am not going to re-post numbers I put together in a different thread on the front page a week ago in regard to FA SP options. It's very easy for anyone to pull up Stroman's and Odorizzi's career numbers side by side and examine for yourself. But what you will see initially is a 1yr difference in age and a slightly higher career WAR for Stoman. If you look closer, you will see career numbers in virtually every category almost mirroring one another, a little give and take here and there. But what I find humorous is that Stoman has been called an "innings eater". But if you break down the numbers, Stoman has averaged just slightly more than 1/3 IP over Odorizzi.

 

Sorry Mr. Law, but I'd go with the guy on hand I already know.

 

As to May not being ranked, I get it. It's only one guy's list...reputed though he may be...but he is not a proven closer or projected closer. Now, it only takes 1 team to decide he is an answer. In fact, if May had been pitching for a different team the last couple of seasons, with the numbers/results he has had, most of us would be clamoring for the Twins to sign him. And IMO, sites like MLB Traderumors are all over the place with their projections. But how in the world can someone like Hand be projected at $7M and May be the equal???

 

Again, it only takes 1 team to believe and sign May up. But I still believe he is looking at $4M and $5M max. I am hoping the payroll will allow that and Clippard at $2.5-3M. And unless there is a trade made, there are various FA that are VERY intriguing! But right now, I'm still not sure a healthy Oddo isn't the best choice.

[jkcarew]

I’ll take Stroman over Odorizzi 11 out of 10 times. When he’s healthy, he’s at 190-205 innings. When Odorizzi is healthy, he’s at 160. It’s a big difference. Not to mention that the pace of play grinds to a halt with Odorizzi on the mound. Stroman has a more of an attacking style. Having said that, I fully expect Stroman to be more expensive, probably both in terms of AAV and years.