Sign Yasmani Grandal, be open to trading Nelson Cruz if Mitch Garver is for real

[Wax Kepler]

This all appears to be a moot point, as the Twins are apparently out on Grandal:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/twins-rumors-zack-wheeler-free-agent-madison-bumgarner.html

That's speculation on their part. They aren't getting that from any source, their just saying it's not likely because of Garver breakout. The author admits,though, the team needs a second catcher and Jeffers isn't ready now.

 

I liked Castro. I'd be alright if they signed him and not Grandal.

[Vanimal46]

 

Well, signing Grandal might help the pitching staff. But that's a fair point. Either way I don't want to pay $12 million to a DH only 40 year old when the strength of the organization is their bats. Bring up Kiriloff or Rooker, somebody's gonna get hot.

 

Could be, but I wouldn't bet on Kirilloff or Rooker being as good as Cruz will be in March-June. Nothing wrong with waiting until a prospect forces their way into the lineup a la Arraez last year. If one of those players, or someone else mashes the ball and continues to mash in the MLB, then the Twins have a fantastic problem on their hands. 

 

We always seem to want to clear a highway for prospects to make the majors, and if past history tells us anything, it's a bad idea. 

[Battle ur tail off]

 

Could be, but I wouldn't bet on Kirilloff or Rooker being as good as Cruz will be in March-June. Nothing wrong with waiting until a prospect forces their way into the lineup a la Arraez last year. If one of those players, or someone else mashes the ball and continues to mash in the MLB, then the Twins have a fantastic problem on their hands. 

 

We always seem to want to clear a highway for prospects to make the majors, and if past history tells us anything, it's a bad idea. 

 

100% correct here.

 

Why anyone would want to get rid of one of the top 5 bats in the game to plug in a rookie or someone not nearly as proficient at the plate boggles my mind. Cruz was towards the top last year in BA, OBP, OPS, HRS, RBIS.

 

Getting rid of this guy would be insane. Like literally insane. He's one of the best hitters the Twins have every employed and we want to move him so we can make way for a guy like Rooker. LOL

[Wax Kepler]

100% correct here.

 

Why anyone would want to get rid of one of the top 5 bats in the game to plug in a rookie or someone not nearly as proficient at the plate boggles my mind. Cruz was towards the top last year in BA, OBP, OPS, HRS, RBIS.

 

Getting rid of this guy would be insane. Like literally insane. He's one of the best hitters the Twins have every employed and we want to move him so we can make way for a guy like Rooker. LOL

He's 40 years old, has zero positional value, and the game came right to him with the 2019 ball. The 2020 ball is gonna be different.

 

BATTLE UR TABLE OFF, why do you put words in my mouth, when did I say the only reason to do this is purely for the prospect we get and clearing room for Rooker. You know very well that I have presented more reasons the just getting a prospect in return and a lot more names than just Rooker. You know by I have concerns about money, Garver's durability at #1 catcher, a regression for Cruz. I want to free up those DH at bats for the multitudes of bats we've got, not just in the minors but the guys who need a break. Garver, Sano, Kepler, Polanco, Rooker, Kiriloff, or Larnach, one of them (or many of them) is going to thrive in the DH spot but also add positional value.

 

Draft bats, buy arms, don't spend money on DH only guys when you're loaded with talent batters.

[Wax Kepler]

Sano will likely be our full time DH by 2022, if they can convince him to an extension.

We agree on that

[h2oface]

 

That's fascinating about Grandal. I'd heard he was a good backstop but what you say about him gives me reservations about giving him a big contract.....

 

Grandal IS a good backstop, and maybe one of the top 3 or 4 by today's options. Living in LA, I follow the Dodgers as a hometown team, by default. But, so far, when the games were the most important, and in the playoffs, he was one that could not get it done, and even played poorly. That may all change with his next opportunity. I think he is not the direction to go for the catching tandem for the Twins. $ and history. I have faith that we will have a catcher to team with Garver when the season starts that will be very desireable, but it won't be Grandal.

 

That is why I like Bumgarner of all the pitchers available. He has proven he can and does step up when the lights are the brightest. He reminds me of Jack Morris, and I think and would bet on a resurgence with the Twins through his early 30s, and he is one to have in the playoffs - and we all know we could use someone like that when we get there.

[Wax Kepler]

I have faith that we will have a catcher to team with Garver when the season starts that will be very desireable, but it won't be Grandal.

 

Sounds good to me. Grandal will be costly, the best catcher available as far as I know which is also why I've heard of him.. But maybe our personnel deparment can get a better bang for the buck. Definitely want a solid defensive catcher with at least a decent bat. Sounds like I'm describing Castro, but really, just a Castro+ or Castro 2.0, whoever that is. We do for sure need a need catcher, right?

 

I trust this front office to do their due diligence to get a good catcher to handle a big chunk of the workload. I'd be OK with Castro again but I'd like to upgrade there

[Battle ur tail off]

 

He's 40 years old, has zero positional value, and the game came right to him with the 2019 ball. The 2020 ball is gonna be different.

BATTLE UR TABLE OFF, why do you put words in my mouth, when did I say the only reason to do this is purely for the prospect we get and clearing room for Rooker. You know very well that I have presented more reasons the just getting a prospect in return and a lot more names than just Rooker. You know by I have concerns about money, Garver's durability at #1 catcher, a regression for Cruz. I want to free up those DH at bats for the multitudes of bats we've got, not just in the minors but the guys who need a break. Garver, Sano, Kepler, Polanco, Rooker, Kiriloff, or Larnach, one of them (or many of them) is going to thrive in the DH spot but also add positional value.

Draft bats, buy arms, don't spend money on DH only guys when you're loaded with talent batters.

 

OK then if you want to look at it that way. Cruz is a better hitter than Garver, Sano, Kepler, Polanco, Rooker, and Kiriloff. 

Why weaken your lineup just for an added roster spot?

 

Not trying to pick on you, but every single GM in the game takes Nelson Cruz on a one year deal to be their DH after the season he just had. He literally, was the best DH in the game last year. 

 

You want a catcher to help Garver? Sure, I'm fine with that. Go ahead and get somebody. However, adding a Grandal and subtracting a Cruz still puts a hurting on your lineup. Go ahead and look at the production Cruz has put up. 

 

He quite literally might be the best signing on a "bat" the Twins have ever had. 

[Wax Kepler]

OK then if you want to look at it that way. Cruz is a better hitter than Garver, Sano, Kepler, Polanco, Rooker, and Kiriloff.

Why weaken your lineup just for an added roster spot?

 

Not trying to pick on you, but every single GM in the game takes Nelson Cruz on a one year deal to be their DH after the season he just had. He literally, was the best DH in the game last year.

 

You want a catcher to help Garver? Sure, I'm fine with that. Go ahead and get somebody. However, adding a Grandal and subtracting a Cruz still puts a hurting on your lineup. Go ahead and look at the production Cruz has put up.

 

He quite literally might be the best signing on a "bat" the Twins have ever had.

I'm worried a less juiced baseball and the inevitable drop off he is going to experience due to age, do not expect him to come close to last year's production. I have a hunch.

 

So, I'll throw out a hypothetical, what if Garver has a better OPS in 2020 than Cruz does? Everybody who disagrees with me is just assuming that Cruz will be better than Garver at the plate. What if it's vice versa?

[Battle ur tail off]

 

I'm worried a less juiced baseball and the inevitable drop off he is going to experience due to age, do not expect him to come close to last year's production. I have a hunch.

So, I'll throw out a hypothetical, what if Garver has a better OPS in 2020 than Cruz does? Everybody who disagrees with me is just assuming that Cruz will be better than Garver at the plate. What if it's vice versa?

 

Then you have a catcher AND a DH that rakes? What's the problem with that?

[prouster]

I'm worried a less juiced baseball and the inevitable drop off he is going to experience due to age, do not expect him to come close to last year's production. I have a hunch.

 

So, I'll throw out a hypothetical, what if Garver has a better OPS in 2020 than Cruz does? Everybody who disagrees with me is just assuming that Cruz will be better than Garver at the plate. What if it's vice versa?

Nelson Cruz has put up six consecutive seasons with at least 30 home runs. Four of those are 40 homer seasons. Your worries about the juiced ball appear to be unfounded. Age is a more probable reason for sudden decline, but Cruz has already outlasted the aging curve. We’ll see, I guess.

[Wax Kepler]

Your worries about the juiced ball appear to be unfounded.

No, my worries are that the ball won't be juiced so the game is moving away from the aging Cruz and the two, age + a deflated ball, are going to take a toll and his OPS plummets. I don't think he's going to be bad, but I think not as good as last season.

 

I think he's going to be entering a decline and last year's baseball won't be there to mask it.

 

Sell high. Trade him for something before you can't get anything. Whoever replaces Cruz isn't going to be much worse.

[Tomj14]

 

Sell high. Trade him for something before you can't get anything. Whoever replaces Cruz isn't going to be much worse.

Wish as you may but the Twins aren't trading Cruz, they just extended him to a very low yearly salary. So low and so short that if he does fall off the cliff they could cut him and not look like fools for doing so or come up with a wrist injury and DL him.  But if they were as concerned as you, they could have turned down the option and used that money to get somebody WAY better than they could get in a trade. It is also so low and so short it shouldn't hinder than from signing anybody.

[Wax Kepler]

Then you have a catcher AND a DH that rakes? What's the problem with that?

I have no problem having catcher (Grandal) AND a DH that rakes (Garver). No problem

[Wax Kepler]

But if they were as concerned as you, they could have turned down the option and used that money to get somebody WAY better than they could get in a trade. It is also so low and so short it shouldn't hinder than from signing anybody.

I disagree with all of that. 12 million could easily hinder a sighing considering that's nearly 10% of the entire payroll.

 

If a team felt confident they could trade someone, of course they would pick up the option. Because the other choice is let him go and not receive anything.

[Vanimal46]

No, my worries are that the ball won't be juiced so the game is moving away from the aging Cruz and the two, age + a deflated ball, are going to take a toll and his OPS plummets. I don't think he's going to be bad, but I think not as good as last season.

 

I think he's going to be entering a decline and last year's baseball won't be there to mask it.

 

Sell high. Trade him for something before you can't get anything. Whoever replaces Cruz isn't going to be much worse.

With all of the reasons you've given for a rapid decline, what do you expect to get back in a trade? If you feel that way about him, don't you think other teams feel that way and won't give up valuable pieces?

[MMMordabito]

 

A number of guys could benefit from those DH at-bats and I think they wouldn't be a big dropoff from Cruz. Garver, Kiriloff, Rooker, then you have the guys who could use a night off like Sano, Kepler, Polanco. I think the production could be close to what Cruz would give.

 

You've mentioned six players who have produced one season among all of them with an OPS+ higher than the 151 that Cruz has averaged over the last fives seasons, despite his advanced baseball age.  Only Sano and Garver have had a season that tops his lowest output over those 5 seasons.  

 

You suggest production could be close.

 

I'm not sure what forecasting tool your using, but it probably needs another pass through QA.

 

As far as nights off go, Cruz will likely take his own rest days or just be sent to the IL for a spell, so there should be 20-30 games that aren't interleague road games for some other guys to get half a night off.

[MMMordabito]

 

Well, signing Grandal might help the pitching staff. But that's a fair point. Either way I don't want to pay $12 million to a DH only 40 year old when the strength of the organization is their bats. Bring up Kiriloff or Rooker, somebody's gonna get hot.

 

Well done.  You've now reduced the best hitter in the lineup, well-respected member of the clubhouse and veteran leader who has passed his knowledge of the game to "a DH only 40 year old".

 

 

 

[Wax Kepler]

With all of the reasons you've given for a rapid decline, what do you expect to get back in a trade? If you feel that way about him, don't you think other teams feel that way and won't give up valuable pieces?

I don't think other teams are going to feel the same way. We hit 300+ HR. Only the teams who have as much power hitters should be less interested, like Yankees, but who knows, the Yanks might like Cruz's team friendly contract.

[Wax Kepler]

Well done. You've now reduced the best hitter in the lineup, well-respected member of the clubhouse and veteran leader who has passed his knowledge of the game to "a DH only 40 year old".

 

Fact: Cruz is 40 or very close.

 

Fact: Cruz is a DH only

 

I respect what he did year but I think the rest of the team is ready without him. I don't think Cruz needs to hold Sano's hand in 2020.

 

Very good mentor, great guy but this is business and I think we have people who can replace him and come close to his production at a much lower price.

[Wax Kepler]

You've mentioned six players who have produced one season among all of them with an OPS+ higher than the 151 that Cruz has averaged over the last fives seasons, despite his advanced baseball age. Only Sano and Garver have had a season that tops his lowest output over those 5 seasons.

 

You suggest production could be close.

 

I'm not sure what forecasting tool your using, but it probably needs another pass through QA.

 

As far as nights off go, Cruz will likely take his own rest days or just be sent to the IL for a spell, so there should be 20-30 games that aren't interleague road games for some other guys to get half a night off.

I don't have a forecasting tool.

 

 

Sano could come close but I kinda want him at 3rd this season.

 

You said Garver had a better OPS+ than than one of Cruz's last 5 seasons, he's risen to that level aleady. And Sano, too? Well there you go; that's close enough for me to allocate Cruz's money to a much more urgent task, luring in the two best pitchers we can. And another catcher.

[Vanimal46]

I don't think other teams are going to feel the same way. We hit 300+ HR. Only the teams who have as much power hitters should be less interested, like Yankees, but who knows, the Yanks might like Cruz's team friendly contract.

I don't understand your logic. If he's a rapidly declining 40 year old DH only, teams aren't going to come calling offering valuable players for him.

[MMMordabito]

 

I don't have a forecasting tool.

 

 

Anyone who predicts future value off a combination of past performance and factors likely to affect future performance is using some kind of forecasting tool.  It doesn't have to be a piece of software. It could be an organic tool.

[Wax Kepler]

I don't understand your logic. If he's a rapidly declining 40 year old DH only, teams aren't going to come calling offering valuable players for him.

They might if they need an influx of power.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Sell high. People talk about Garver not repeating last year's performance, but why doesn't anyone worry about that with Cruz.I think he's a regression candidate just as much as anyone else.

All I wanna know is if anyone would trade Cruz mid season for a good prospect if Garver maintains his torrid pace, and you had Grandal. I think I would get irritated seeing Garver on the bench, even if I didn't have Grandal and it was only 40 games he was sitting on the bench.

But you know it's going to be more than 40 games on the bench for Garver, likely way more.

For the same reason you want to trade Cruz is the same reason why you won't get much for him. As it is, he's a DH only guy. That means you have 14 potential partners... when you eliminate the need at DH, that number drops... and well.. he's aging and could regress at any time as you mention. You aren't getting a top 100 guy for him. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

For the same reason you want to trade Cruz is the same reason why you won't get much for him. As it is, he's a DH only guy. That means you have 14 potential partners... when you eliminate the need at DH, that number drops... and well.. he's aging and could regress at any time as you mention. You aren't getting a top 100 guy for him. 

You may have to part with a top 10 prospect just to get another team to take him. Duran and Cruz packaged together for salary relief.

[Wax Kepler]

For the same reason you want to trade Cruz is the same reason why you won't get much for him. As it is, he's a DH only guy. That means you have 14 potential partners... when you eliminate the need at DH, that number drops... and well.. he's aging and could regress at any time as you mention. You aren't getting a top 100 guy for him.

Maybe could package him with Rosario for a case of beer. I'd be OK with that

[USAFChief]

 

I'm worried a less juiced baseball and the inevitable drop off he is going to experience due to age, do not expect him to come close to last year's production. I have a hunch.

So, I'll throw out a hypothetical, what if Garver has a better OPS in 2020 than Cruz does? Everybody who disagrees with me is just assuming that Cruz will be better than Garver at the plate. What if it's vice versa?

Garver's 2019 production was based primarily on a power spike.

 

Wouldn't the "less juiced baseball" have even more effect on Garver than Cruz?  

 

It's certainly possible age could catch up to Cruz in 2020. But given his history, that's certainly less likely than Garver turning back into a decent but unremarkable hitter.

 

In any case, there's reallly no argument to be made that having Cruz and Garver and Garver's backup isn't better than having just Garver and Garver's backup. The $12M Cruz makes on a one year deal is inconsequential to the Twins adding pitching. And the Twins need another catcher whether or not they have Cruz.

[Wax Kepler]

Garver's 2019 production was based primarily on a power spike.

 

Wouldn't the "less juiced baseball" have even more effect on Garver than Cruz?

 

It's certainly possible age could catch up to Cruz in 2020. But given his history, that's certainly less likely than Garver turning back into a decent but unremarkable hitter.

 

In any case, there's reallly no argument to be made that having Cruz and Garver and Garver's backup isn't better than having just Garver and Garver's backup. The $12M Cruz makes on a one year deal is inconsequential to the Twins adding pitching. And the Twins need another catcher whether or not they have Cruz.

Is it a spike or continuous improvement? He's trending the right direction since his minor league days.

 

A less juiced baseball would have an effect on both Garver and Cruz, however, Garver's positional value is unaffected.

 

I think there's going to be a dropoff in production out of the DH spot regardless whether be it's Cruz or someone else.

[Vanimal46]

4/$73 million.