Josh Johnson

[DaveW]

given that JJ could increase his trade value and be cheaper at the deadline. Personally, I'd be willing to overpay to get the guy this offseason, just because of the flexibility the Twins would have whether they win or lose.

 

Given his health history, it's equally likely he has no value at the deadline.

Equally as likely? Give me a god damn break. Does he have the potential to get injured? Sure, but not let's act like it is some forgone conclusion or anything even close to that:

 

Observe:

 

2009: 207 IP

2010: 183.2 IP

2011:60.1 IP

2012:191.1 P

[DaveW]

These two performed among the top 25 pitchers last year.

 

Pitchers the caliber of Johnson and Shields return top 50 prospects. That's Sano territory.

 

no Sano is top 20 territory. A guy like Rosario is top 50 territory, also as recent history has shown us, teams are much less likely to trade top prospect these days.

 

Though Shields will command at least 2 very good prospects, Johnson may be a bit cheaper prospect wise.

[PseudoSABR]

given that JJ could increase his trade value and be cheaper at the deadline. Personally, I'd be willing to overpay to get the guy this offseason, just because of the flexibility the Twins would have whether they win or lose.

 

Given his health history, it's equally likely he has no value at the deadline.

You're right there is injury risk, but maybe some due diligence would go along way to tipping the scales. (In any case, JJ has pitched at least 180IP three of four seasons*). In theory, it's a risk I'm willing to take given the payroll coming off the books, and the boom/bust nature of 2013. Again, I'd hold off trying to resign the guy until midseason or even offseason 2013.

 

*Dave beat me to the point /hattip

[old nurse]

given that JJ could increase his trade value and be cheaper at the deadline. Personally, I'd be willing to overpay to get the guy this offseason, just because of the flexibility the Twins would have whether they win or lose.

 

Given his health history, it's equally likely he has no value at the deadline.

Equally as likely? Give me a god damn break. Does he have the potential to get injured? Sure, but not let's act like it is some forgone conclusion or anything even close to that:

 

Observe:

 

2009: 207 IP

2010: 183.2 IP

2011:60.1 IP

2012:191.1 P

 

Is JJ not getting all of his starts per year or is he a less than 6 innings a game pitcher? 32-34 starts a year should get the pitcher 220 innings?

[DaveW]

given that JJ could increase his trade value and be cheaper at the deadline. Personally, I'd be willing to overpay to get the guy this offseason, just because of the flexibility the Twins would have whether they win or lose.

 

Given his health history, it's equally likely he has no value at the deadline.

Equally as likely? Give me a god damn break. Does he have the potential to get injured? Sure, but not let's act like it is some forgone conclusion or anything even close to that:

 

Observe:

 

2009: 207 IP

2010: 183.2 IP

2011:60.1 IP

2012:191.1 P

 

Is JJ not getting all of his starts per year or is he a less than 6 innings a game pitcher? 32-34 starts a year should get the pitcher 220 innings?

 

2010 he had 28 starts and 31 this year.

[Brandon]

I'll go with the trade for shields. though I have no idea what it would take to get him. fun to speculate....Span, Rosario, and Burton maybe

sign Joe Blanton to 2 year 18 million with 3rd year option and Baker to a 1 year 3-4 million with some incentives 1-3 million maybe and with a 1 year 8-10 option. Thats just over 20 million to fix the rotation. And the options give the Twins flexibilty to either save money on production or end the relationship before losses mount. These moves have the potential to help keep the rotation stable for the next 2-3 years.

 

Shields

Blanton

Baker

Diamond

Hendricks, Gibson, Deduno, and Devries and I guess Blackburn gets a glance in spring training too.

 

Thats a solid rotation with depth in case of injury or ineffectiveness.

[Erock]

3 years of an above average lead-off hitter/good fielding CF, a top 100 prospect, and an incredibly cheap set-up man for 2 years of a good #2 starter sounds like a terrible idea to me.

[old nurse]

given that JJ could increase his trade value and be cheaper at the deadline. Personally, I'd be willing to overpay to get the guy this offseason, just because of the flexibility the Twins would have whether they win or lose.

 

Given his health history, it's equally likely he has no value at the deadline.

Equally as likely? Give me a god damn break. Does he have the potential to get injured? Sure, but not let's act like it is some forgone conclusion or anything even close to that:

 

Observe:

 

2009: 207 IP

2010: 183.2 IP

2011:60.1 IP

2012:191.1 P

 

Is JJ not getting all of his starts per year or is he a less than 6 innings a game pitcher? 32-34 starts a year should get the pitcher 220 innings?

 

2010 he had 28 starts and 31 this year.

 

You say he is an ace yet expect that he will sigh for number two money at a less than ideal contract length and money for him. You expect the Marlins to trade for him for a low level high ceiling prospect and throw ins. For the money that would still be about 15% of the payroll you would need a spot starter and a pitcher to get you through the seventh along with your set up man and closer. That sounds like a trade that will not happen, a signing that will not happen and a need for a very good bullpen.

[DaveW]

given that JJ could increase his trade value and be cheaper at the deadline. Personally, I'd be willing to overpay to get the guy this offseason, just because of the flexibility the Twins would have whether they win or lose.

 

Given his health history, it's equally likely he has no value at the deadline.

Equally as likely? Give me a god damn break. Does he have the potential to get injured? Sure, but not let's act like it is some forgone conclusion or anything even close to that:

 

Observe:

 

2009: 207 IP

2010: 183.2 IP

2011:60.1 IP

2012:191.1 P

 

Is JJ not getting all of his starts per year or is he a less than 6 innings a game pitcher? 32-34 starts a year should get the pitcher 220 innings?

 

2010 he had 28 starts and 31 this year.

 

You say he is an ace yet expect that he will sigh for number two money at a less than ideal contract length and money for him. You expect the Marlins to trade for him for a low level high ceiling prospect and throw ins. For the money that would still be about 15% of the payroll you would need a spot starter and a pitcher to get you through the seventh along with your set up man and closer. That sounds like a trade that will not happen, a signing that will not happen and a need for a very good bullpen.

He has Ace potential, but his injury issues (which sort of limits his true max dollar potential)

 

I'm not sure why he wouldn't think about taking a 4 year 75 mil extension, heck, even if you have to up it to 5/90 I think the Twins should do it. The guys getting 100 mil deals are the ones who have stayed healthy over the past 3-4 years.

 

He did make it 7+ IP in 13 of his starts last year, obviously you would want more than that but some of that could be him shaking off rust (he struggled early out of the gate)

 

The Marlins would trade him for a prospect package, look at what Greinke and other top pitchers brought back recently, teams aren't willing to give up a ton to get pitchers on one year contracts these days, Rosario is a top 50 prospect, and you can add in a couple other prospects as well (someone in the 8-10 range and someone in the 15-20 range) The Marlins would definitely consider pulling the trigger on that.

[biggentleben]

You say he is an ace yet expect that he will sigh for number two money at a less than ideal contract length and money for him. You expect the Marlins to trade for him for a low level high ceiling prospect and throw ins. For the money that would still be about 15% of the payroll you would need a spot starter and a pitcher to get you through the seventh along with your set up man and closer. That sounds like a trade that will not happen, a signing that will not happen and a need for a very good bullpen.

 

Exactly. Like I said earlier, it took Hanley to get Josh Beckett moved. I would almost guarantee it takes Sano to get Johnson moved. The Marlins had huge reported offers this summer and didn't move him, so I doubt they'll move him without a big return.

[Mike Sixel]

The twins are flush with outfielders, what do you expect to get in return for one of them that would be better than a number 2 starter? And how many number 2 starters are even on the planet? These decisions are not just about the specific people in one deal, but also what you have int the org.

[Heinie Manush]

[ Point is, starting pitching is more valuable on the market than outfielders.

 

What we need is a GM that would trade us a quality starting pitcher (and perhaps a solid shortstop) for a corner outfielder. But, alas, no such GM could ever exist...

[Shane Wahl]

The Trade Rosario crowd better stick around until 2015 to see if he is a MLB second baseman . . . if so . . . yikes, the Twins would have made yet another decisively stupid decision regarding their middle infield.

 

Anyway, Shields for Span, Swarzak, and Hermsen might get it done. And if you are willing to trade Span, then you should be willing to add those other two as well.

 

Revere is tradeable, but only if you are talking about adding a Berrios and Summers in there as well.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The Twins can't trade away middle infielders with the potential to be better than replacement level. God knows we only see those guys about once every 15 years.

[DaveW]

Exactly. Like I said earlier, it took Hanley to get Josh Beckett moved. I would almost guarantee it takes Sano to get Johnson moved. The Marlins had huge reported offers this summer and didn't move him, so I doubt they'll move him without a big return.

 

That trade was several years ago, the way teams trade prospects has changed quite a bit, just look at the Grienke etc moves.

[DaveW]

The Trade Rosario crowd better stick around until 2015 to see if he is a MLB second baseman . . . if so . . . yikes, the Twins would have made yet another decisively stupid decision regarding their middle infield.

 

Anyway, Shields for Span, Swarzak, and Hermsen might get it done. And if you are willing to trade Span, then you should be willing to add those other two as well.

 

Revere is tradeable, but only if you are talking about adding a Berrios and Summers in there as well.

 

Swarzak. Has. No. Value.

[AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS]

These two performed among the top 25 pitchers last year.

 

Pitchers the caliber of Johnson and Shields return top 50 prospects. That's Sano territory.

 

Thats what im saying. People on this board are like we can just give them Revere and Hendriks for Josh Johnson< That makes me laugh. The Marlins in no way will sell low on this guy. Odds are they will want some young stud pitcher in the minors in return....we dont have that. Shields would require Span and a top prospect.

[notoriousgod71]

You say he is an ace yet expect that he will sigh for number two money at a less than ideal contract length and money for him. You expect the Marlins to trade for him for a low level high ceiling prospect and throw ins. For the money that would still be about 15% of the payroll you would need a spot starter and a pitcher to get you through the seventh along with your set up man and closer. That sounds like a trade that will not happen, a signing that will not happen and a need for a very good bullpen.

 

Exactly. Like I said earlier, it took Hanley to get Josh Beckett moved. I would almost guarantee it takes Sano to get Johnson moved. The Marlins had huge reported offers this summer and didn't move him, so I doubt they'll move him without a big return.

 

It took Gomez and Humber to get Johan...

[DaveW]

You say he is an ace yet expect that he will sigh for number two money at a less than ideal contract length and money for him. You expect the Marlins to trade for him for a low level high ceiling prospect and throw ins. For the money that would still be about 15% of the payroll you would need a spot starter and a pitcher to get you through the seventh along with your set up man and closer. That sounds like a trade that will not happen, a signing that will not happen and a need for a very good bullpen.

 

Exactly. Like I said earlier, it took Hanley to get Josh Beckett moved. I would almost guarantee it takes Sano to get Johnson moved. The Marlins had huge reported offers this summer and didn't move him, so I doubt they'll move him without a big return.

 

It took Gomez and Humber to get Johan...

DING DING DING! And Johan had a long term contract in place before they accepted the trade AND Johan was the best pitcher in all of baseball.

[AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS]

You say he is an ace yet expect that he will sigh for number two money at a less than ideal contract length and money for him. You expect the Marlins to trade for him for a low level high ceiling prospect and throw ins. For the money that would still be about 15% of the payroll you would need a spot starter and a pitcher to get you through the seventh along with your set up man and closer. That sounds like a trade that will not happen, a signing that will not happen and a need for a very good bullpen.

 

Dont remind me....only the twins....

 

Exactly. Like I said earlier, it took Hanley to get Josh Beckett moved. I would almost guarantee it takes Sano to get Johnson moved. The Marlins had huge reported offers this summer and didn't move him, so I doubt they'll move him without a big return.

 

It took Gomez and Humber to get Johan...

 

dont remind me...only the twins....

[DaveW]

You say he is an ace yet expect that he will sigh for number two money at a less than ideal contract length and money for him. You expect the Marlins to trade for him for a low level high ceiling prospect and throw ins. For the money that would still be about 15% of the payroll you would need a spot starter and a pitcher to get you through the seventh along with your set up man and closer. That sounds like a trade that will not happen, a signing that will not happen and a need for a very good bullpen.

 

Dont remind me....only the twins....

 

Exactly. Like I said earlier, it took Hanley to get Josh Beckett moved. I would almost guarantee it takes Sano to get Johnson moved. The Marlins had huge reported offers this summer and didn't move him, so I doubt they'll move him without a big return.

 

It took Gomez and Humber to get Johan...

 

dont remind me...only the twins....

 

You act like Gomez is the only prospect to never work out, anyone remember the centerpiece of that Sabathia deal? LaPorta...think the Brewers are missing him so much?

[CharacterGroove]

I would trade Span/Revere and a prospect for Johnson even if the chance of getting him to sign an extension is slim to none.

 

The problem is that if you trade the farm for one year of Josh Johnson, you haven't stopped the bleeding. You've simply postponed it for one season, after which you'll be worse off than you were before that point.

 

Well, that doesn't make sense to me. By stopping the bleading I mean fielding a competitive club in 2013. I believe Johnson furthers that effort more than Span/Revere (and Prospect X). By 2014 I don't expect the cupboard to be bare.

 

But who X is matters to me. No Sano, Buxton, Barrios, etc. I don't want to mortgage the future for one year. But of course it's going to take one or more good players to get Johnson - or any worthwhile starter in a trade.

 

Again, the devil's in the details, but you don't play this game to have the best team 2-3 years down the road on paper. You play to win championships. This year taught us we've got a decent foundation with horrible starting pitching. Let's do something about it.

[PseudoSABR]

 

It took Gomez and Humber to get Johan...

DING DING DING! And Johan had a long term contract in place before they accepted the trade AND Johan was the best pitcher in all of baseball.

The Twins also had little leverage because of Johan's no trade clause. The Mets were bidding against themselves. I'm not sure that JJ has the same kind of leverage that Johan had, so I'm not sure that the Marlins will be forced to take a mediocre package.

[biggentleben]

Exactly. Like I said earlier, it took Hanley to get Josh Beckett moved. I would almost guarantee it takes Sano to get Johnson moved. The Marlins had huge reported offers this summer and didn't move him, so I doubt they'll move him without a big return.

 

That trade was several years ago, the way teams trade prospects has changed quite a bit, just look at the Grienke etc moves.

 

Yep, and they were still asking for similar return to move Johnson this summer. Some teams have changed, others have not...

[biggentleben]

You say he is an ace yet expect that he will sigh for number two money at a less than ideal contract length and money for him. You expect the Marlins to trade for him for a low level high ceiling prospect and throw ins. For the money that would still be about 15% of the payroll you would need a spot starter and a pitcher to get you through the seventh along with your set up man and closer. That sounds like a trade that will not happen, a signing that will not happen and a need for a very good bullpen.

 

Exactly. Like I said earlier, it took Hanley to get Josh Beckett moved. I would almost guarantee it takes Sano to get Johnson moved. The Marlins had huge reported offers this summer and didn't move him, so I doubt they'll move him without a big return.

 

It took Gomez and Humber to get Johan...

DING DING DING! And Johan had a long term contract in place before they accepted the trade AND Johan was the best pitcher in all of baseball.

 

2 prospects in BA's top 52, yet another in the top 100, and another in the Mets top 10 for Baseball America. Yep, not valuable prospects at all!

[old nurse]

You say he is an ace yet expect that he will sigh for number two money at a less than ideal contract length and money for him. You expect the Marlins to trade for him for a low level high ceiling prospect and throw ins. For the money that would still be about 15% of the payroll you would need a spot starter and a pitcher to get you through the seventh along with your set up man and closer. That sounds like a trade that will not happen, a signing that will not happen and a need for a very good bullpen.

 

Exactly. Like I said earlier, it took Hanley to get Josh Beckett moved. I would almost guarantee it takes Sano to get Johnson moved. The Marlins had huge reported offers this summer and didn't move him, so I doubt they'll move him without a big return.

 

It took Gomez and Humber to get Johan...

DING DING DING! And Johan had a long term contract in place before they accepted the trade AND Johan was the best pitcher in all of baseball.

 

2 prospects in BA's top 52, yet another in the top 100, and another in the Mets top 10 for Baseball America. Yep, not valuable prospects at all!

 

Gotta love Dave for his persistence. In the Grienke and Sanchez deals it took multiple AA pitchers as well as a near major league ready prospect to get the deals done. I don't think Hirschfield, Darnell and or Hermsen is exactly going to cause teams to drool.

[DaveW]

You say he is an ace yet expect that he will sigh for number two money at a less than ideal contract length and money for him. You expect the Marlins to trade for him for a low level high ceiling prospect and throw ins. For the money that would still be about 15% of the payroll you would need a spot starter and a pitcher to get you through the seventh along with your set up man and closer. That sounds like a trade that will not happen, a signing that will not happen and a need for a very good bullpen.

 

Exactly. Like I said earlier, it took Hanley to get Josh Beckett moved. I would almost guarantee it takes Sano to get Johnson moved. The Marlins had huge reported offers this summer and didn't move him, so I doubt they'll move him without a big return.

 

It took Gomez and Humber to get Johan...

DING DING DING! And Johan had a long term contract in place before they accepted the trade AND Johan was the best pitcher in all of baseball.

 

2 prospects in BA's top 52, yet another in the top 100, and another in the Mets top 10 for Baseball America. Yep, not valuable prospects at all!

 

Johan was also the best pitcher in the game and was basically coming off 3 straight Cy Young seasons, the Mets had a contract in place with him. I like Johnson, but he is nowhere near that caliber, so one can assume it won't take 2 top 50 and 1 top 100. 1 top 50 (Rosario) along with a guy in the top ten of the twins prospects along with a C+ prospect should be enough to get it done.

 

Of course the Marlins were asking a high price this season, they had no reason not to (just like the Twins did with Span/Willingham/Morneau) that doesn't mean the price doesn't come down, especially heading into a walk season.

[DaveW]

It doesn't matter that the two pitchers they got were in AA, they just weren't very good prospects (no where near the top 100 and IIRC one wasn't even in the Angels top ten, which was a weak ass system anyways), Segura was a nice prospect (#55) right where Rosario will most likely be!

 

So again, Rosario+one top ten prospect in system+C/C+ prospect is basically the exact same package the Cardinals gave up.

 

If the Marlins are ONLY looking for pitching back then yeah, we are prob in trouble, but nothing has been said of their demands as of yet, you gotta look at it as a value standpoint not a "Well X team traded two AA pitchers for Y player" every team is different.

[AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS]

Who knows what the Marlins want, their team is in shambles right now, im pretty sure they could use a bit of everything. So if you look at it, if they go with a complete rebuilding project they will probably want some high end prospects both pitchers and hitters. Like you said if they want pitchers we are not getting Johnson, but if they do want a hitter we got plenty of hitting prospects to spare. IF we do trade for Johnson...there better be an extension that comes along with it.

[TheLeviathan]

Equally as likely? Give me a god damn break. Does he have the potential to get injured? Sure, but not let's act like it is some forgone conclusion or anything even close to that:

 

First off - what the hell with the attitude? Considering some of the ridiculous notions you're floating around here I wouldn't suggest throwing stones Mr. Glass House. Second - Pseudo was claiming we could get equal of better value for him at the deadline as we can in the offseason. Given this is already a questionable premise, I'd say that, yes, it is just as like that something would go wrong and he'd be less valuable than what we dealt before the season.

 

If you don't want to settle on just the injury risk - how about the career ERA a run higher on the road? The transition from the NL to the AL?