Article: Taking a Deeper Dive into Miguel Sano's Plate Discipline

[USAFChief]

“Plate discipline” is not Sano’s problem.

 

Contact is the problem.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

“Plate discipline” is not Sano’s problem.

Contact is the problem.

Mostly agreed, though I'd put pitch recognition on the list over plate discipline. Miguel is getting fooled by some pretty terrible pitches right now.

[drivlikejehu]

Sano has a RC+ of 113 and full-season WAR pace of ~3.5. He's not going to be sent down, and shouldn't be. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Sano has a RC+ of 113 and full-season WAR pace of ~3.5. He's not going to be sent down, and shouldn't be. 

This is a case where looking at the overall numbers doesn't really indicate what's happening today.

 

Sano's first ten games of the season:

46 PA, 16 SO, .237/.348/.711/1.058

 

Sano's 11-20th games of the season:

40 PA, 15 SO, .243/.300/.432/.732

 

Sano's 21-26th games of the season:

26 PA, 16 SO, .130/.231/.391/.622

 

That's not a slump, that's a massive hole in approach that is being exploited by pitchers.

[drivlikejehu]

 

This is a case where looking at the overall numbers doesn't really indicate what's happening today.

 

Sano's first ten games of the season:

46 PA, 16 SO, .237/.348/.711/1.058

 

Sano's 11-20th games of the season:

40 PA, 15 SO, .243/.300/.432/.732

 

Sano's 21-26th games of the season:

26 PA, 16 SO, .130/.231/.391/.622

 

That's not a slump, that's a massive hole in approach that is being exploited by pitchers.

 

Sano has over 1700 PAs in his career. There's no validity to breaking out minuscule sample sizes in that manner. You could play games like this with basically every player and argue that their opponents figured them out, due to a stretch of 5 games.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Sano has over 1700 PAs in his career. There's no validity to breaking out minuscule sample sizes in that manner. You could play games like this with basically every player and argue that their opponents figured them out, due to a stretch of 5 games.

You're right, Sano has 1700 career PAs. And in the last 411 of them (2018-present), he has struck out 162 times while posting a .721 OPS.

 

This isn't a new problem.

[Brock Beauchamp]

And it shouldn't be forgotten that Sano did this in 2018 as well. He had a 1.006 OPS through his first eight games before plunging to a .739 OPS by the end of April.

[drivlikejehu]

 

And it shouldn't be forgotten that Sano did this in 2018 as well. He had a 1.006 OPS through his first eight games before plunging to a .739 OPS by the end of April.

 

So, periodically pitchers just forget that they don't need to throw him strikes? Why would he ever have a hot streak again, in his career? Are you predicting that he won't?

 

I'll be happy to bet on his rest-of-season OPS, with an over-under of .721.

[Brock Beauchamp]

So, periodically pitchers just forget that they don't need to throw him strikes? Why would he ever have a hot streak again, in his career? Are you predicting that he won't?

 

I'll be happy to bet on his rest-of-season OPS, with an over-under of .721.

Go ahead, keep ignoring that a guy is striking out in 2/3rds of his plate appearances because that’s obviously not a big deal, nor is it something we’ve seen from Sano in the past as he goes into a long tailspin.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Go ahead, keep ignoring that a guy is striking out in 2/3rds of his plate appearances because that’s obviously not a big deal, nor is it something we’ve seen from Sano in the past as he goes into a long tailspin.

 

I'm equally aware of his numbers as you are, so I'm not "ignoring" them. The difference is that I understand how numbers vary widely over small sample sizes. Obviously Sano strikes out a lot in general, and so there will always be periods where he strikes out even more than 'a lot.'

 

What you're not doing is making any predictions for the rest of the year. What do you project his wOBA to be, RoS? What does it mean, in terms of actual production, for Sano to be in a "long tailspin"?

 

Those aren't rhetorical questions. If anyone is seriously thinking that Sano should be sent down, they should be able to project his future performance in comparison to the alternatives. Otherwise it's noise, not informed opinion.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm equally aware of his numbers as you are, so I'm not "ignoring" them. The difference is that I understand how numbers vary widely over small sample sizes. Obviously Sano strikes out a lot in general, and so there will always be periods where he strikes out even more than 'a lot.'

 

What you're not doing is making any predictions for the rest of the year. What do you project his wOBA to be, RoS? What does it mean, in terms of actual production, for Sano to be in a "long tailspin"?

 

Those aren't rhetorical questions. If anyone is seriously thinking that Sano should be sent down, they should be able to project his future performance in comparison to the alternatives. Otherwise it's noise, not informed opinion.

I don't think Sano should be sent down right now because Gonzalez is on the IL.

 

But if Marwin gets back and Sano has posted another handful of games with a K rate over 50%, he should probably be sent down because that means there is something terribly wrong with his approach, swing, mental state, or all of the above. Guys can't continue to produce when they're missing the ball that often.

[drivlikejehu]

 

I don't think Sano should be sent down right now because Gonzalez is on the IL.

 

But if Marwin gets back and Sano has posted another handful of games with a K rate over 50%, he should probably be sent down because that means there is something terribly wrong with his approach, swing, mental state, or all of the above. Guys can't continue to produce when they're missing the ball that often.

 

Why are you avoiding any mention of what actual numbers you expect from him over the rest of the year? I don't understand what's so difficult about it.

[AlwaysinModeration]

This is a case where looking at the overall numbers doesn't really indicate what's happening today.

 

Sano's first ten games of the season:

46 PA, 16 SO, .237/.348/.711/1.058

 

Sano's 11-20th games of the season:

40 PA, 15 SO, .243/.300/.432/.732

 

Sano's 21-26th games of the season:

26 PA, 16 SO, .130/.231/.391/.622

 

That's not a slump, that's a massive hole in approach that is being exploited by pitchers.

Last 3PA: 1SO, 667/667/2.667/3.333

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Why are you avoiding any mention of what actual numbers you expect from him over the rest of the year? I don't understand what's so difficult about it.

Because it's a bad question to ask, one that depends on whether Sano adjusts to how pitchers are exploiting his swing right now. If Sano continues down the road he's been on for the past few weeks, he'll be demoted. If he improves, then everything is probably just fine.

 

The question is whether Sano can adjust, not what OPS he'll produce in 2019. And I don't know the answer to that question and neither do you.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Last 3PA: 1SO, 667/667/2.667/3.333

He hasn't struck out today, which is a bigger positive sign than anything else.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Because it's a bad question to ask, one that depends on whether Sano adjusts to how pitchers are exploiting his swing right now. If Sano continues down the road he's been on for the past few weeks, he'll be demoted. If he improves, then everything is probably just fine.

 

The question is whether Sano can adjust, not what OPS he'll produce in 2019. And I don't know the answer to that question and neither do you.

 

Well I can't literally see the future, no one can. Clubs have to do their best to determine what to expect from their players. That's what drives player personnel decisions . . . promotions, demotions, trades, signings, everything. 

 

Baseball is a game of constant adjustments, for both hitters and pitchers. Sano is no exception to that. He's not going to be demoted, end of story. 

 

I project a RoS RC+ of Sano of 115. 

 

I'm not afraid to put my expectations out there, because they are based on actual data, rather than a basically emotional response to someone striking out a lot for a week.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm not afraid to put my expectations out there, because they are based on actual data, rather than a basically emotional response to someone striking out a lot for a week.

Yeah, my response is emotional. Try to tone down the arrogance a bit.

 

Strikeouts are not the actual problem but they're a corollary issue that shows there's a problem. And swinging and missing the ball constantly is not like running into a patch of bad luck and posting a .400 OPS for a couple of weeks while slumping; it's indicative of a large issue under the surface.

 

It's like a starting pitcher running out there for three consecutive starts while walking a batter an inning but posting a 4.00 ERA. Sure, the end result looks... okay... but there's obviously something wrong in that situation and it should not be ignored just because the surface stats show mediocre results.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Yeah, my response is emotional. Try to tone down the arrogance a bit.

 

Strikeouts are not the actual problem but they're a corollary issue that shows there's a problem. And swinging and missing the ball constantly is not like running into a patch of bad luck and posting a .400 OPS for a couple of weeks while slumping; it's indicative of a large issue under the surface.

 

It's like a starting pitcher running out there for three consecutive starts while walking a batter an inning but posting a 4.00 ERA. Sure, the end result looks... okay... but there's obviously something wrong in that situation and it should not be ignored just because the surface stats show mediocre results.

 

Your response isn't based on meaningful data or analysis, so what else could it be based on? Call it 'visceral' if that suits you better.

 

I put my predictions out there. We won't be able to compare later since you won't provide your own.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

Your response isn't based on meaningful data or analysis, so what else could it be based on? Call it 'visceral' if that suits you better.

 

I put my predictions out there. We won't be able to compare later since you won't provide your own.

Because I’m not concerned about the performance numbers, I’m concerned about the approach that is leading to diminished performance numbers.

 

I care about the disease, not the symptoms. Fix the disease and the symptoms follow.

 

This isn’t a contest where we guess how many jelly beans are in the jar and the closest guess gets a stuffed bear.

[drivlikejehu]

 

This isn’t a contest where we guess how many jelly beans are in the jar and the closest guess gets a stuffed bear.

 

No, it's a contest to see who could better interpret the numbers and observations associated with this topic. You say Sano is in a tailspin, I say he'll be fine. You say his approach won't work, I say his approach will allow him to be a decent MLB starting 3rd baseman.

 

I get that you're trying to have it both ways, so that you can't be wrong in hindsight - either Sano really does crash, in which case you were correct, or he gets back on track, and you say it's because he changed his approach just like you said he should.

 

Sano's approach is only a problem if it means that he stinks the rest of the year. One bad week is irrelevant. So your 'concerns' are likewise irrelevant unless you think his approach will prevent him from being valuable going forward. But you won't actually predict that, because you know there's a strong likelihood he will be fine, but don't want to contradict your dire assessment.

Edited June 22, 2019 by drivlikejehu

[Brock Beauchamp]

Ugh. Whatever. If you bothered to understand my posting history, I *never* predict numbers because it’s a guessing game based on a myriad of factors that are largely unpredictable (health being a key factor).

 

If you want to shout numbers back and forth at a person, you barked up the wrong tree and it has nothing to do with me wanting to have it both ways.

 

Also, stop trying to define on your terms how I get to have a conversation on this forum.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Also, stop trying to define on your terms how I get to have a conversation on this forum.

 

I didn't. Converse however you like. But other posters should be allowed to apply logical reasoning to your statements. If you say 'X player should be demoted,' but then don't provide objective support for that statement, others may disagree with you and provide reasons why your statement is incorrect. 

 

Numbers are often just a medium for expressing a concept. For instance, 'X player should not be demoted because they can reasonably be expected to do Y.' In that case, the quantity 'Y' is only a shorthand for a general concept, e.g., 'X player is pretty decent, let's keep him around.'

[Brock Beauchamp]

Numbers are fine but they don’t tell why something happened. Look at what Boston did to Sano during that series; they threw him breaking balls down and then went high fastball and Sano could not come close to making contact with the ball. Rinse, repeat.

 

As a result, he struck out around 75% of the time in that series.

 

That is not a problem that will go away, especially once teams have a little time to soak in that film and adapt to what Boston did with frightening success.

[drivlikejehu]

It was ugly to watch, I agree. But the fact is that Sano has had brutal series before, as do all players. He has had periods of elevated strikeouts before.

 

Sano has adjusted before, many times, usually not in a way we can really observe. Otherwise his MLB career would already be over.

 

I do think there will come a day when his approach won't work. I'm not interested in the Twins having him under contract for his early 30s. But in the here and now, his strengths are most likely sufficient to off-set the weaknesses.

 

His former high prospect status and scorching debut raised expectations that I think are impacting how fans view Sano today. Gleeman has done a good job talking about this. It's not what we hoped for, but Sano can still provide solid value to this club.

[Vanimal46]

.761 OPS now. Seems to go down by 100 points every week it's been pitched that strikeouts aren't a problem.

[Dakota15]

Don't tell that to the some of the people who cover this team closely, they'll just tell you that you don't know enough baseball or something.  Sano is just fine and fans are unjustly critical because he's polarizing.  

 

I definitely understand the level-headed approach and just trying to ride out this slump, but this appears more than just a slump.  Don't get me wrong, I hope I'm wrong. 

Edited June 28, 2019 by Dakota15

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

.761 OPS now. Seems to go down by 100 points every week it's been pitched that strikeouts aren't a problem.

Well, the strikeouts are an effect of the problem. The problem is contact and how easy it has become to pitch around the holes in Sano's swing.

 

Which is why I've been concerned about Sano since his MiLB rehab. The contact was never there, as evidenced by the strikeouts. When he got to MLB, he had a bit of a grace period but was still missing the ball way too often. It was bound to catch up to him sooner or later; I only hoped it wouldn't get this bad.

[Vanimal46]

Well, the strikeouts are an effect of the problem. The problem is contact and how easy it has become to pitch around the holes in Sano's swing.

 

Which is why I've been concerned about Sano since his MiLB rehab. The contact was never there, as evidenced by the strikeouts. When he got to MLB, he had a bit of a grace period but was still missing the ball way too often. It was bound to catch up to him sooner or later; I only hoped it wouldn't get this bad.

It's caught up to him. Once Marwin is back, the corresponding move should be sending Sano to Rochester. Arraez IMO has earned another 40-50 PAs over Sano.

[Squirrel]

I wonder if he needs glasses. But that is so simplistic, I’m sure that’s already been examined. It’s like he knows what to swing at and not, but just isn’t connecting and hitting. I mean he’s not just swinging at everything, so what is it? As soon as Gonzalez and/or Adrianza are ready, I think it’s time to send Miguel to Rochester.

[USAFChief]

 

Sano has a RC+ of 113 and full-season WAR pace of ~3.5. He's not going to be sent down, and shouldn't be. 

This hasn't aged well.