Luis Arraez promoted

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

I haven't seen him play either but I'll be giving him a fair shake right from the beginning. 

 

I look forward to seeing him play and I'll be bummed if I don't. 

Yes, regardless of the outcome - and often young players called up disappoint, and sometimes it is obvious they are over their head and will always  be over their head - see a listof many dozens of prospects and guys who were just hanging on - just getting to The Show for their one claw at being with the best - and ... but it's fun each and every time for us fans to see the new players make their debut, ssee what they got, see for ourselves. Why am I rambling?

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

This presumes that:

 

Lewis will stick at SS and/or his fielding will be better than Polanco's (a soon to be All Star Shortstop.)  Not sure that either of this will happen.  

 

He is 19, never played above A ball, and he is currently having a .630 OPS at Fort Myers.  He is better than that but got plenty to prove yet.

 

Royce Lewis has yet to play a single professional game anywhere other than shortstop--both MLB and minor league ball mention he is considered to have a good chance to stick at short.  In the only category they can be compared (due to paucity of MiLB fielding stats), Lewis has a better error rate this year than Polanco (1 every 73.3 innings for Lewis, 1 every 60.6 for Polanco).  This leads to another salient point for Polanco--he's making the AS game because of his bat, not his glove.  For his career, Polanco has -20.6 UZR, with only one year positive (his first, in a grand total of 12 innings).  He's negative in range, DP's, and errors, and is 23rd amongst qualified shortstops in defensive rating (2nd in offense--by the way, his offensive rating would be first by a mile at second, so it's not like he loses value by shifting to the other side of second).

 

I too am frustrated by Lewis' slow start, but first, it is the FSL (where only 11 players have an OPS above .800), and he's also having a better May (.777 OPS).  Second, I never put a timeline on Lewis making the majors--Polanco could be the shortstop for the next 3 years, and Lewis would still debut at 22/23.  That being said, if Polanco is still the primary shortstop in 2022, something has either gone very (and unexpectedly) right, or very wrong.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Arraez has played almost exclusively at 2b for his pro career. He has made 250 starts at 2b, 50 at 3b, 25 at ss and 3 in the OF. I doubt he’s a legitimate fielder anywhere other than 2b.

 

Look at this year though--15 at BOTH second and third, 5 at short, and 1 in the outfield.  Given that this FO clearly likes players with positional flexibility (signing Gonzalez when they already had Astudillo and Adrianza, and rostering all 3 the entire year at the expense of the traditional 4th outfielder, then calling up Arraez instead of a traditional 4th outfielder like Cave or Wade), I think it's quite likely the edict from on high to Arraez was to start learning other positions.

 

I'm not saying second isn't his best fielding position, I'm simply saying barring a collapse from Polanco or a fizzling from Lewis, Arraez's path to playing time is through versatility.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Gordon is 23.... And people are making fun of him, and saying he's done. Internet.....

He's also been fairly durable during his career. Honestly, the only reason Arraez beat him was b/c he's on the IL... just my 2 cents, but I'm guessing Gordon would have been the guy had he been healthy.

 

That said, I wouldn't be surprised at all if one of the two is dangled for help this summer. 

[stringer bell]

Glad he got a start and he looks like he can come up and contribute at the MLB level. Arraez' future will take care of itself. 

[yarnivek1972]

Look at this year though--15 at BOTH second and third, 5 at short, and 1 in the outfield. Given that this FO clearly likes players with positional flexibility (signing Gonzalez when they already had Astudillo and Adrianza, and rostering all 3 the entire year at the expense of the traditional 4th outfielder, then calling up Arraez instead of a traditional 4th outfielder like Cave or Wade), I think it's quite likely the edict from on high to Arraez was to start learning other positions.

 

I'm not saying second isn't his best fielding position, I'm simply saying barring a collapse from Polanco or a fizzling from Lewis, Arraez's path to playing time is through versatility.

That’s possible. But I just don’t think his glove will play anywhere other than 2b. In other words, to get playing time (as a Twin) he’ll have to outhit (2 of 3) Polanco, Lewis and Gordon. Maybe he’ll be good enough at 3b. I’m skeptical that he has the arm. He probably has better range and hands than Sano, but not the arm.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

That’s possible. But I just don’t think his glove will play anywhere other than 2b. In other words, to get playing time (as a Twin) he’ll have to outhit (2 of 3) Polanco, Lewis and Gordon. Maybe he’ll be good enough at 3b. I’m skeptical that he has the arm. He probably has better range and hands than Sano, but not the arm.

 

Starter playing time, yes.  I tend to think his career will be as a better hitting, but much less powerful Marwin Gonzalez.  He'll play 3-5 times a week, giving each of the infielders (except 1B) a rest, and maybe an odd start here or there based on matchups.  He'll help the team weather injuries and adjust for slumps, as well as allow increased late game substitution permutations.  All of that is incredibly valuable in the early 21st century, nearly as valuable as a starter in my opinion.  After all, if you had 9 Marwin Gonzalez', you would have (by his career OPS) a league average offense.

[yarnivek1972]

Starter playing time, yes. I tend to think his career will be as a better hitting, but much less powerful Marwin Gonzalez. He'll play 3-5 times a week, giving each of the infielders (except 1B) a rest, and maybe an odd start here or there based on matchups. He'll help the team weather injuries and adjust for slumps, as well as allow increased late game substitution permutations. All of that is incredibly valuable in the early 21st century, nearly as valuable as a starter in my opinion. After all, if you had 9 Marwin Gonzalez', you would have (by his career OPS) a league average offense.

I think his future is as a National Leaguer coming in to pinch hit and part of a double switch. Kinda reminds me of Luis Rodriguez in terms of skill set. He played 2b, 3b and ss too but really was not good at any of them.

[MMMordabito]

 

He's also been fairly durable during his career. Honestly, the only reason Arraez beat him was b/c he's on the IL... just my 2 cents, but I'm guessing Gordon would have been the guy had he been healthy.

 

That said, I wouldn't be surprised at all if one of the two is dangled for help this summer. 

 

The only reason you're saying that is because Gordon was a 1st round draft pick and has a bunch of prospect shine.

 

Arraez career OPS - .798 (probably .800 with the double, single and two walks just added)

Gordon career OPS - .709

 

Neither is known as a plus defender

[jkcarew]

From what I can tell, this is a guy you want to find a spot for where his defense doesn't kill you...and keep him there. Arm, range, hands...nothing seems to be above average, which is what we had heard.

 

Offensively, this is a guy who has a career minor-league SLG barely over 400....380 over his PA's above the A level. Zero power, and doesn't seem like much chance to develop power. And doesn't run well either. He has to hit 300+ to have offensive value. The good news is, he looks the part of a 300 hitter. He looks like a throwback with that crouched stance and swing...kinda fun to see. In certain lineups where you have SLG, but need OBP (like the Twins), his bat would fit nicely. Good depth piece for 2019. Hard to say beyond that.

[jkcarew]

 

The only reason you're saying that is because Gordon was a 1st round draft pick and has a bunch of prospect shine.

 

Arraez career OPS - .798 (probably .800 with the double, single and two walks just added)

Gordon career OPS - .709

 

Neither is known as a plus defender

But, not being a plus defender at SS is much different than not being a plus defender at 2nd. By all accounts, Gordon has much better range and arm than Arraez, and Gordon would have much better major-league defensive potential than Arraez. Offensively, I think I agree with you...although Gordon has some power potential that Arraez doesn't seem to have, and Gordon is much more of a threat on the bases.

[yarnivek1972]

But, not being a plus defender at SS is much different than not being a plus defender at 2nd. By all accounts, Gordon has much better range and arm than Arraez, and Gordon would have much better major-league defensive potential than Arraez. Offensively, I think I agree with you...although Gordon has some power potential that Arraez doesn't seem to have, and Gordon is much more of a threat on the bases.

It’s worth remembering that Arraez is about 18 months YOUNGER than Gordon.

[cmoss84]

I'm hearing that he has zero power from a lot of people...but he just missed a double down the left field line that was hit well on one of his first ABs and doubled to the gap for his first hit. He's young enough where he will still get a bit stronger. 

 

If he is a high OB% guy that hits .290 with 5-10 HRs and 40 doubles, he might be hard to keep off the field. GREAT problem to have with our logjam of middle infielders. Agree with everyone in that we probably make a move or two at some point for some pitching. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

The only reason you're saying that is because Gordon was a 1st round draft pick and has a bunch of prospect shine.

 

Arraez career OPS - .798 (probably .800 with the double, single and two walks just added)

Gordon career OPS - .709

 

Neither is known as a plus defender

Mind reader, you are not.

 

I'm saying that because Gordon has been relatively healthy, currently sits on the 40 man, and has a lot more at bats at higher levels than Arraez. I'll reiterate that had Gordon been healthy, he'd have been the guy called up. 

 

I won't deny he's lost prospect stock, but that has absolutely nothing to do with it. Gordon seems to get off to a hot start each year and then cools substantially, which I personally don't know if it's a conditioning thing or something else (said cool off has often also been timed with a promotion at which point he comes back strong the next season as he has this year in albeit a very small sample).

[yarnivek1972]

I'm hearing that he has zero power from a lot of people...but he just missed a double down the left field line that was hit well on one of his first ABs and doubled to the gap for his first hit. He's young enough where he will still get a bit stronger.

 

If he is a high OB% guy that hits .290 with 5-10 HRs and 40 doubles, he might be hard to keep off the field. GREAT problem to have with our logjam of middle infielders. Agree with everyone in that we probably make a move or two at some point for some pitching.

Willians Astudillo showed zero prior to the MLB level last year. He’s 27. Certainly not outside the realm of possibility that a 22 year old can develop power.

[Riverbrian]

 

I think his future is as a National Leaguer coming in to pinch hit and part of a double switch. Kinda reminds me of Luis Rodriguez in terms of skill set. He played 2b, 3b and ss too but really was not good at any of them.

 

You make your mind up quick.