Vikings Off-Season Thread

Vanimal46 · August 19, 2019

It's hard to analyze preseason games, but here's my take aways so far:

Mike Boone should win the #3 RB job, maybe even the primary backup. Dude has some big play ability.

Sloter should win the backup QB competition. Mannion is terrible. If Kirk is injured for more than a couple of games it's going to be tough to win any games.

The defense looks old and declining.

Mike Sixel · August 19, 2019

Here you go:

https://www.theringer.com/nfl-preview/2019/8/19/20811425/minnesota-vikings-kirk-cousins-kevin-stefanski-gary-kubiak-offensive-identity

Mike Sixel · August 19, 2019

It's hard to analyze preseason games, but here's my take aways so far:

Mike Boone should win the #3 RB job, maybe even the primary backup. Dude has some big play ability.

Sloter should win the backup QB competition. Mannion is terrible. If Kirk is injured for more than a couple of games it's going to be tough to win any games.

The defense looks old and declining.

I'd guess the D is declining. But that's partly because that's about the only way it can go.....I have a bad feeling about this window, but then, as a Vikings' fan, I should always have a bad feeling.

Vanimal46 · August 19, 2019

I'd guess the D is declining. But that's partly because that's about the only way it can go.....I have a bad feeling about this window, but then, as a Vikings' fan, I should always have a bad feeling.

I think the window slams shut after this year and it'll be a rough 2020...

I don't see the D line generating a lot of pressures this year. It will take a huge bounce back year from Griffen who's getting up there in football age.

Bavarian · August 21, 2019

Wow, some real Debbie downers here. What are we basing this decline on exactly? They're too old? They're in their prime. The door shuts in 2020? I only see one player named - Griffen. Is he done? Based on what? They haven't even played a game yet. I really hope you're not basing this off of preseason.

If you guys are basing all these dire predictions on last year's team, that's not good enough. They were great in 2017. Historically good on 3rd downs. In preseason thus far, they are forcing FG's vice TD's with the 2nd/3rd string. Where's the trending data? The offense had low time of possession in 2018 which directly affected the defense. Granted, teams ran on the defense with success compared to 2017 but Sheldon is gone and Stephen returns. Joseph had three surgeries so we know he wasn't himself.

My personal opinion is that we saw a poorer result from the defense as the offense sputtered often. No running game to speak of to rest the defense and a lot of 3-and-outs which again, didn't rest the D. Add to that a lot of playing from behind. When Shurmur was moving the chains and the offense was scoring, this made the defense doubly effective as they could take chances and were fresh. We have roughly the exact personnel we did in 2017 and IMO, not one of them is playing past their prime. I'm certain Zimmer has done his studying this offseason to see how those prolific offenses with LA Rams and Chicago attacked his defense last year. I expect to see a bounce back.

Badsmerf · August 21, 2019

The saving grace for the Vikings will be Aaron Rodgers declining, and the ineptitude of the Bears offense.... combined with the Lions being run like the Lions. The lack of real high powered offenses in the division will help mask the decay of personnel on the defense.

You ask who is past their prime? Anthony Barr, Xavier Rhodes, Everson Griffen, Harrison Smith, Linval Joseph... All these guys are declining. Maybe some young players will step up this year.

Mike Sixel · August 21, 2019

After all these years, I don't care about anything other than a Super Bowl win..... Any other win and loss record doesn't really matter

Danchat · August 23, 2019

It's hard to analyze preseason games, but here's my take aways so far:

Mike Boone should win the #3 RB job, maybe even the primary backup. Dude has some big play ability.

Sloter should win the backup QB competition. Mannion is terrible. If Kirk is injured for more than a couple of games it's going to be tough to win any games.

The defense looks old and declining.

I wish Sloter would be the backup, but all signs show that Mannion has already wrapped up the job. Sloter couldn't play any better in the preseason, but Zimmer threw a bunch of shade on Sloter in his latest interview. Apparently Sloter is pretty bad during practice at times... I saw he threw a pick 6 in practice yesterday.

If you're writing the conclusion about the defense declining because of the preseason play... yeah, I wouldn't do that. Remember when the defense got crushed by Brian Hoyer and the 49ers in the 2017 3rd preseason game? No you don't, because the Vikings had the best defense in the regular season that year.

Preseason football is sloppy and ultimately doesn't mean very much. I'd wait a few weeks into the season before drawing any conclusions like that.

The saving grace for the Vikings will be Aaron Rodgers declining, and the ineptitude of the Bears offense.... combined with the Lions being run like the Lions. The lack of real high powered offenses in the division will help mask the decay of personnel on the defense.

You ask who is past their prime? Anthony Barr, Xavier Rhodes, Everson Griffen, Harrison Smith, Linval Joseph... All these guys are declining. Maybe some young players will step up this year.

I don't think Barr and Smith are past their prime yet. Barr is turning 27, is that really so old? Also I think Rhodes' problem is injuries, not age yet. But that could be a problem soon.

Vanimal46 · August 23, 2019

If you're writing the conclusion about the defense declining because of the preseason play... yeah, I wouldn't do that. Remember when the defense got crushed by Brian Hoyer and the 49ers in the 2017 3rd preseason game? No you don't, because the Vikings had the best defense in the regular season that year.

Preseason football is sloppy and ultimately doesn't mean very much. I'd wait a few weeks into the season before drawing any conclusions like that.

The Browns and Lions both went 4-0 in the preseason before going 0-16 in the regular season... I get it, and not basing that opinion off of preseason.

I'm not confident in 2 spots on the D Line...

Griffen's turning 32 in December and was a non-threat after returning from his mental breakdown. Is Weatherly ready to take more of his snaps? Will Weatherly be exposed in a starting role?

Shamar Stephen/Jaleel Johnson as Linval* Hungry's partner... Richardson's pass rushing stats will be missed. He had 47 total pressures (30 hurries, 12 hits, five sacks) on 407 pass-rush snaps, giving him the 17th-best pass-rush productivity rating (6.4) among qualifiers according to PFF

*Damn, Linval's 30 this year too.

https://www.pff.com/news/pro-2019-free-agency-profile-sheldon-richardson

Linebackers look good. I'm confident in Kendricks/Barr/Gedeon. It should be with the cap space they're commiting to the unit compared to other teams in the NFL.

In the secondary, Rhodes turns 29 and Harry the Hitman is 30. Both at the age where it's not uncommon good players start to lose a step. CB and Safety in the NFL is high churn and young overall. Depth looked good but not at the start of the season with Hill suspended and Hughes on the PUP.

Danchat · August 23, 2019

Griffen's turning 32 in December and was a non-threat after returning from his mental breakdown. Is Weatherly ready to take more of his snaps? Will Weatherly be exposed in a starting role?
Shamar Stephen/Jaleel Johnson as Linval* Hungry's partner... Richardson's pass rushing stats will be missed. He had 47 total pressures (30 hurries, 12 hits, five sacks) on 407 pass-rush snaps, giving him the 17th-best pass-rush productivity rating (6.4) among qualifiers according to PFF

I think Weatherly will be solid and might rotate heavily with Griffen. Ifeadi Odenigbo has seized control of the 4th DE spot and he might be a factor too.

The DTs are probably going to rotate a lot, Joseph and Stephen are good run-stuffers, but aren't going to do much against the pass. Jalyn Holmes is in a position to get a lot of work, but it's still in the air whether he'll be up to the task. Hercules Mata'afa has looked solid, but he's going to get killed on running plays. Richardson was a bit overrated but he will be missed.

Badsmerf · August 23, 2019

I wish Sloter would be the backup, but all signs show that Mannion has already wrapped up the job. Sloter couldn't play any better in the preseason, but Zimmer threw a bunch of shade on Sloter in his latest interview. Apparently Sloter is pretty bad during practice at times... I saw he threw a pick 6 in practice yesterday.

If you're writing the conclusion about the defense declining because of the preseason play... yeah, I wouldn't do that. Remember when the defense got crushed by Brian Hoyer and the 49ers in the 2017 3rd preseason game? No you don't, because the Vikings had the best defense in the regular season that year.

Preseason football is sloppy and ultimately doesn't mean very much. I'd wait a few weeks into the season before drawing any conclusions like that.

I don't think Barr and Smith are past their prime yet. Barr is turning 27, is that really so old? Also I think Rhodes' problem is injuries, not age yet. But that could be a problem soon.

I don't think much of Barr... other than he isn't a very good player. I think Smith took a step back last year. He was beat often and badly, and didn't change games like he used to. Doesn't mean he can't bounce back, but he isn't on the right side of 30.

Vanimal46 · August 23, 2019

I think Weatherly will be solid and might rotate heavily with Griffen. Ifeadi Odenigbo has seized control of the 4th DE spot and he might be a factor too.

The DTs are probably going to rotate a lot, Joseph and Stephen are good run-stuffers, but aren't going to do much against the pass. Jalyn Holmes is in a position to get a lot of work, but it's still in the air whether he'll be up to the task. Hercules Mata'afa has looked solid, but he's going to get killed on running plays. Richardson was a bit overrated but he will be missed.

Lots of question marks for sure with DT. It's difficult to project turnovers year over year. But one thing that's steady and consistent for a good defense is generating pressures and QB hits.

A good pass rush lowers a QB's completion percentage by 5-10% all over the field, and results in higher probability of turnovers.

If the DTs are all focused on run stopping, and we only have Hunter as a premiere pass rusher, that doesn't bode well for getting the defense off the field quickly.

Bavarian · August 23, 2019

From what I'm reading, I'm supposed to believe that last year's admitted underachieving defense that still wound up as the #4 overall defense is in rapid decline with half the defense being past their prime. Interesting folly as far as I can tell. Should be returning the same starters other than Richardson who most here believe walked on water. BTW, look who he had his sacks against. Most against teams the Vikes were way up on in garbage time. He was not a factor. If you have have trouble remembering an impactful play that he made last year it's because he didn't. He was a sieve at the point of attack as teams consistently ripped of chunk yardage on obvious running downs. I hope for that to change with "over-the-hill" Shamar Stephen back. But according to the experts on this site, that's not going to matter much. Seems like this season is over. We'll see about that.

Vanimal46 · August 23, 2019

From what I'm reading, I'm supposed to believe that last year's admitted underachieving defense that still wound up as the #4 overall defense is in rapid decline with half the defense being past their prime. Interesting folly as far as I can tell. Should be returning the same starters other than Richardson who most here believe walked on water. BTW, look who he had his sacks against. Most against teams the Vikes were way up on in garbage time. He was not a factor. If you have have trouble remembering an impactful play that he made last year it's because he didn't. He was a sieve at the point of attack as teams consistently ripped of chunk yardage on obvious running downs. I hope for that to change with "over-the-hill" Shamar Stephen back. But according to the experts on this site, that's not going to matter much. Seems like this season is over. We'll see about that.

I can lead you to water, but can't make you drink it...

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-nfl-cant-rely-on-defense/

There's years of data showing players start to decline at 30 and only gets worse from there.

I never said a "rapid decline" is on the way. The defense is not young anymore... It's going to take a lot of things going right to maintain a top 5 defense.

Vanimal46 · August 23, 2019

Believe it or not I'm more confident about the offense this year than the defense.

If the line is improved, which shouldn't be too hard after last year's disaster, that will boost the run and pass game.

Dalvin should be in the prime of his career right now.

Thielen relies more on physicality than speed so that should extend his productivity another year or 2. Diggs is in the prime of his career.

Danchat · August 24, 2019

Believe it or not I'm more confident about the offense this year than the defense.

If the line is improved, which shouldn't be too hard after last year's disaster, that will boost the run and pass game.

Dalvin should be in the prime of his career right now.

Thielen relies more on physicality than speed so that should extend his productivity another year or 2. Diggs is in the prime of his career.

I'm not sold on the O-line's improvement, Elflein is not a fit in the new zone blocking scheme and has played poorly so far in the preseason... and Kline was so bad in Tennessee last year they cut him one year into a 4 year deal. I think O'Neill and Bradbury will be solid, and Reiff's an average LT, which is nice to have. I think they will be decent pass protectors but I wonder about their ability to run block.

Vanimal46 · August 24, 2019

I'm not sold on the O-line's improvement, Elflein is not a fit in the new zone blocking scheme and has played poorly so far in the preseason... and Kline was so bad in Tennessee last year they cut him one year into a 4 year deal. I think O'Neill and Bradbury will be solid, and Reiff's an average LT, which is nice to have. I think they will be decent pass protectors but I wonder about their ability to run block.

If they're still a bottom 5 offensive line... Woof. I'm hoping for a bounce back as a middle of the pack unit like they were in 2017.

Bavarian · August 25, 2019

What I'm objecting to this notion of a decline and would kindly ask for some evidence to this belief (not fact). Game one has not even started and some of you are carrying on as if the defense has long eroded. To me, that's laughable to the extreme and to clarify, I'm asking for you to justify your position a little deeper than 30 years old's aren't as fresh as 20 year old's. Let's have that conversation. Because you will lose that argument when discussing reality here in that the core of this defense knows Zimmer's situational communications better than any 20-something could process. Historically, the team has led the league in 3rd down and red zone defense. This is spreading to the 2nd-3rd string players as witnessed this preseason, if you hadn't noticed.

This isn't simply about age. Come on, you guys can do better than that. Seriously.

Vanimal46 · August 25, 2019

Go back a page and I detailed why I think it's declining. Not confident in 2 starters on D Line, lack of depth in the secondary now that Hill is suspended 8 games and Hughes on PUP, Rhodes/Smith nearing the age where historically players decline.

Can you offer any evidence or research why they're going to keep getting better?

obtusebanter · August 27, 2019

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nDNFGqUuPKc

Run blocking looking pretty good right here!

Bavarian · August 27, 2019

No one said they're getting better. Although I'd expect an improvement over last season based on our defensive pedigree and the core player's knowledge of the system. I'm simply asking why all of you believe they are regressing. I might even agree but give me something to chew on. Based on roster age? Again, not good enough. Look at Adrian Peterson. Tom Brady. Drew Brees. Many of those players on defense are in their prime, not over the hill. If they are in such decline, then point out who they should be cutting or moving. Stand behind your claims and justify your position. Cite some analysis...which is impossible considering they haven't played a regular season game. Kinda my whole point.

Explain WHY I should believe the defense is in decline. Give me facts. Point out trends. Show me something. Throw me a bone.

Historical age decline? Huh? Again, who's over the hill?

If this were a case, it would be thrown out of court already. No evidence, your honor.

Vanimal46 · August 27, 2019

No one said they're getting better. Although I'd expect an improvement over last season based on our defensive pedigree and the core player's knowledge of the system. I'm simply asking why all of you believe they are regressing. I might even agree but give me something to chew on. Based on roster age? Again, not good enough. Look at Adrian Peterson. Tom Brady. Drew Brees. Many of those players on defense are in their prime, not over the hill. If they are in such decline, then point out who they should be cutting or moving. Stand behind your claims and justify your position. Cite some analysis...which is impossible considering they haven't played a regular season game. Kinda my whole point.
Explain WHY I should believe the defense is in decline. Give me facts. Point out trends. Show me something. Throw me a bone.
Historical age decline? Huh? Again, who's over the hill?
If this were a case, it would be thrown out of court already. No evidence, your honor.

While a lot of the blame got heaped on Kirk Cousins and the offensive line for the Vikings struggles in 2018, this was the unit that quietly took a huge step backward. Xavier Rhodes earned the lowest coverage grade of his career (55.1) while Harrison Smith went from a 91.6 coverage grade in 2017 to 68.7 last season.

https://www.pff.com/news/pro-ranking-all-32-secondaries-ahead-of-the-2019-nfl-season

Rhodes looked terrible in last week's preseason game. Getting burned by Cardinals WRs I've never heard of.

If there's any way to trade Rhodes I would do it today. Alas, there's not a lot of demand for 29 year old CBs with as much guaranteed money he's owed.

Vanimal46 · August 27, 2019

Of course there are exceptions to every rule, and the examples you mentioned are elite players who have been able to maintain good production longer than most.

Harrison has been elite and has a good chance to bounce back from last year's campaign. I've never thought Rhodes was elite, YMMV.

The key to a good defense is generating pressure and hitting the QB. Both DTs are known for stopping the run, not rushing the QB. I don't think Weatherly is a starting caliber DE, and Griffen was non-existent last year. If they can't fluster the QB, it's not a good sign to get off the field.

diehardtwinsfan · August 27, 2019

While a lot of the blame got heaped on Kirk Cousins and the offensive line for the Vikings struggles in 2018, this was the unit that quietly took a huge step backward. Xavier Rhodes earned the lowest coverage grade of his career (55.1) while Harrison Smith went from a 91.6 coverage grade in 2017 to 68.7 last season.

https://www.pff.com/news/pro-ranking-all-32-secondaries-ahead-of-the-2019-nfl-season

Rhodes looked terrible in last week's preseason game. Getting burned by Cardinals WRs I've never heard of.

If there's any way to trade Rhodes I would do it today. Alas, there's not a lot of demand for 29 year old CBs with as much guaranteed money he's owed.

The question I keep asking is how much of that is due to all the 3 and outs generated by the offense. The D certainly took a step back, but it's hard to fault them when the O was as bad as it was.

Vanimal46 · August 27, 2019

The question I keep asking is how much of that is due to all the 3 and outs generated by the offense. The D certainly took a step back, but it's hard to fault them when the O was as bad as it was.

Sure, that's the goal to keep the offense on the field as much as possible. The offense was terrible at converting short yardage opportunities to keep drives going, and we're all aware how bad the OL was last year.

While the Vikings led the league in sacks up until the final week and wound up finishing tied for third with 50, they still posted some disappointing pass-rushing numbers. For instance, their 16 sacks on the road ranked tied for sixth-lowest in the NFL. Their number of sacks on first and second down (18) tied for eighth lowest, showing a lack of pressure generated with their typical four-man rush. Their quarterback hits (42, per PFF) were at a five-year low.

https://zonecoverage.com/2018/vikings/three-telling-stats-from-the-2018-vikings-season/

I will keep beating this drum... Generating pressure and hitting the QB is the key to a good defense. Generating turnovers is unpredictable year to year. That's usually the cause of a great pass rush that flusters QBs and causes them to make mistake passes. The Vikings struggled with that and I don't see it getting better this year after they replaced Sheldon Richardson with Shamar Stephen.

Mike Sixel · August 27, 2019

The question I keep asking is how much of that is due to all the 3 and outs generated by the offense. The D certainly took a step back, but it's hard to fault them when the O was as bad as it was.

Or, the D could have stopped the opponent more, and not been on the field as much. Blaming the O for the obvious regression of the defense is way off to me.

Bavarian · August 28, 2019

A lot of good points raised above. It's hard to know what team we should expect to see. Is the defense declining or was it a result of poor offense led by poor play-calling and OL play? How much of an aberration was the 13-3 team vs the 8-7-1 team? Lots of questions and many should be answered early this season with tests vs ATL, GB & CHI. I don't have a strong opinion either way but was questioning the "certain" defensive decline. I don't think one season was a big enough body of work considering a top 5 overall finish prior to a top 2 finish in 2018. I'm personally watching the CB's very closely. It seems to me that Holton Hill was eating into Wayne's playing time as the season wore on. Rhodes looked awful and he's saying all the right things regarding his 2019 approach but they're just words. Hughes' health could loom large.

nicksaviking · August 31, 2019

Barring a Super Bowl, I’d like to see a new GM next year. This team just seems like they’re winging it. I have a feeling there is no over arching and cohesive game plan.

Only worry about a decade long special teams problem midway through training camp then toss a draft pick at a guy you clearly have no clue about?

Cut the only developmental QBs and roll with no long term plan for the position?

Crush the salary cap for fairly easily replaceable aging defensive players?

Mike Sixel · August 31, 2019

Barring a Super Bowl, I’d like to see a new GM next year. This team just seems like they’re winging it. I have a feeling there is no over arching and cohesive game plan.

Only worry about a decade long special teams problem midway through training camp then toss a draft pick at a guy you clearly have no clue about?

Cut the only developmental QBs and roll with no long term plan for the position?

Crush the salary cap for fairly easily replaceable aging defensive players?

If that is about the kicker, he just didn't miss at his previous place, I'm thinking the problem isn't the GM when it comes to kicking.

nicksaviking · September 1, 2019

If that is about the kicker, he just didn't miss at his previous place, I'm thinking the problem isn't the GM when it comes to kicking.

Most teams don’t seem to have these chronic kicking problems. Didn’t Spielman get to hand pick his new special teams coach, holder, long snapper and kicker? I’d say he’s had all winter to figure it out, but it’s been longer than that. Then blow a 5th round pick because it’s panic time three weeks before the first week?

I mean I’ll totally give him credit for cutting bait with the new kicker already, even though it will make him look bad, that’s a bold and commendable quality. I just don’t think he’s got a long range vision for this team and I don’t think he’s been a good talent evaluator for quite some time.

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