2012 Draft Class: You be the GM

[Mike Sixel]

Um, I never said Gausman was going to be great, you are totally putting words in my mouth. I said "I think" I would have taken Gausman instead, I didn't even say I was sure I would do that. That does not in any way imply anything about his upside, not even a little. I think I justified why I'd have taken the best or 2nd best pitching prospect in this draft quite clearly. It had NOTHING to do with his upside at all. If you want to attack my arguments, feel free, but at least attack my actual arguments.

 

1. The Twins have never traded prospects for a legit, big time MLB pitcher.

2. The Twins have never signed a legit, big time MLB pitcher in free agency.

3. Their best starting pitchers were either acquired as a throw in a in a trade, or through the draft (other than jack morris, but he was kind of considered doneish when they signed him).

4. IF the above stays true, the only way they'll get good/great starters is throug the draft.

5. OF is their deepest MiLB and MLB position.

 

I never once said Gausman was Strasburg, never even implied it. I never said I'd have definitely taken him instead of Buxton. I said, I didn't know how else they'd get pitching with much upside if they didn't draft it.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Jesus, you make it seem like the Twins passed on Strasburg to draft Buxton. In a normal draft class, Gausman, Zimmer, Appel would have been mid firstround icks at best. It was weak class and the Twins took the best player on the board, hell IMO they took the best player in the draft. His ceiling his sky high and it's not like the Twins are gonna have any shortage of picks early in the first round for the forseeable future.

 

Agreed 100%. The pitching prospects weren't great this year (though I wouldn't have cried if the Twins took Appel and signed him).

 

Buxton was probably the most talented guy in the draft.

 

And it's going to be at least three years before we see him. A lot can change in three years. That's why you take what you feel to be the BPA. Filling needs on the ML roster with guys who won't be ready for a half decade is a good way to continually draft the wrong guys with lower upside.

 

 

To comment on both of these for a bit. The problem DPJ is that there wasn't a Strasburg/Harper type talent in the draft. This is why Houston went with Corea at #1 overall.

 

Brock, Buxton might have been better in terms of some sort of subjective BPA, but I doubt that gap was all that much as Buxton wouldn't have went 2 overall in most other years either. Appel/Gausman/Zimmer all of #2 type pitcher for their ceilings and could have started in AA if the Twins wanted. These guys could have slotted in nicely to help in 2014, but instead they best pitcher they took is a guy that won't help till 2016 at the earliest. I like Berrios, but this is a long term pickup, not something to help in the short term.

 

I'm not quite as down as DPJ on some of the relievers. At the very worst, they will have a ton of hard-throwing bullpen help knocking on the door come 2014. It is a nice combination of upside/safety as I wouldn't be surprised at all if this draft nets 4 or 5 big league players, which is pretty good for a draft. However, if they can teach just one of those 2 pitch guys a 3rd pitch, they'll have also added a nice starter to that mix. It should be clear that it wasn't like there were some higher ceiling college arms availalbe at this point. The only other option would have been some high school arms that will be 5 years away. I woudln't have minded a better mix of them, but their strategy was far from horrible.

[Steve Lein]

As far as none of the pitchers being locks to be a true ace, I get that, but show me a SP in the Twins system who projects as even a #2 right now?

 

Gibson, Berrios.

 

I need to see some success from Berrios above the Rookie Leagues before I start projecting him anywhere, so I disagree (for now) on that one.

 

If Gibson returns to his 2010 form, I'll agree with that, but that's not going to happen this year, or likely next year, while they limit him coming back from surgery.

 

So basically that means we have 1 guy who might be a #2 when he gets to the majors in the entire system right now. That's the best we have, which quite frankly, is pathetic.

 

And exactly "ditto" to Mike Wants Wins 5 points and everything else he says above. The only place the Twins are ever going to get high-end pitching is in the draft. Since that's the case, they have to draft it.

[jtrinaldi]

BA just released a top 50 for 2013. The top 3 guys are pitchers. The next 3 are hitters. Three of the next five are pitchers. Later on is Karsten Whitson, who will be a top 5 pick if he has a healthy season.

 

The Twins would pick fourth if the season ended today and are closer to picking third, than fifth. No matter how you shake it, it's going to be tough to call them taking a pitcher a "flyer".

 

I don't think it's that the pitchers, specifically, are weak. I think it's, similar to last year, that the overall draft isn't great.

LOL, Whitson still hasn't developed his 3rd pitch....

top 4 should be

Stanek

Frazier

Appel

Meadows

 

Followed by

Moran

Collins

Ball

 

this is weaker than last years class.

[Shane Wahl]

I would have liked the Twins to take Nick Wittgren from Purdue instead of Lee Mazzilli in the 9th round. Wittgren dominated rookie ball and is up to A ball now.

[Shane Wahl]

Also, Mike Zunino is murdering the ball. Up to AA now.

[gunnarthor]

Also, Mike Zunino is murdering the ball. Up to AA now.

 

Not a huge surprise, he was considered one of the fastest to the majors college players and he came from a great baseball conference. I don't think the Twins should have taken him though.

 

(Of course, once he gets to Seattle, he'll hit like Nick Punto ...)

[DaveW]

As far as none of the pitchers being locks to be a true ace, I get that, but show me a SP in the Twins system who projects as even a #2 right now?

 

Gibson, Berrios.

 

I need to see some success from Berrios above the Rookie Leagues before I start projecting him anywhere, so I disagree (for now) on that one.

 

If Gibson returns to his 2010 form, I'll agree with that, but that's not going to happen this year, or likely next year, while they limit him coming back from surgery.

 

 

It's all about upside, I'm not saying that Berrios or Gibson is going to be a #2 tomorrow, but both have the potential/ceilings to at least be a #2.

 

I love how people are suddenly down on Gibson, in 2011 he was still getting a bunch of ground ball outs, and upped his k rate to 8.6.

 

In 2010 and 2011 he had a 57% GB rate, if you couple that with the potential to strike out 7.5-8.5 per nine innings while limiting walks, he is easily a number 2.

[DPJ]

I never once said Gausman was Strasburg, never even implied it. I never said I'd have definitely taken him instead of Buxton. I said, I didn't know how else they'd get pitching with much upside if they didn't draft it.

 

First off calm the hell down, it's a figure of speech. You're talking up a guy only cause he's a pitch, but in reality, he's a medicore early pick at best.

 

You do realize that the Twins are gonna draft early in 2013, 2014 and more then likely for quite a few years right? Just cause in 2012 they opted to draft an OF with an insane ceiling doesn't mean all hope is lost. They'll more then likely take an arm in the 2013 draft (unless the BPA is on the board and a position player) and for many more years to come. This isn't gonna be an overnight fix, so taking the best player with the highest ceiling over mid-rotation arms is something we should all agree on.

[Steve Lein]

It's all about upside, I'm not saying that Berrios or Gibson is going to be a #2 tomorrow, but both have the potential/ceilings to at least be a #2.

 

I love how people are suddenly down on Gibson, in 2011 he was still getting a bunch of ground ball outs, and upped his k rate to 8.6.

 

In 2010 and 2011 he had a 57% GB rate, if you couple that with the potential to strike out 7.5-8.5 per nine innings while limiting walks, he is easily a number 2.

 

Tommy John surgery is a pretty big reason to temper expectations (which is what I'm doing, it's not that I'm "down" on him), and like I said, if he gets back to his 2010 form...

[drjim]

It has been said but out of the supplemental and 2nd rounds I would have liked to have seen 1-2 of those college arms replaced with a higher upside or starting prospect.

 

My other big disappointment with the draft was that the Twins left pool money on the table. They had a unique chance to add a few extra tough signs/above slot guys and they punted. With the current state of the franchise that shouldn't happen.

[Shane Wahl]

Also, Mike Zunino is murdering the ball. Up to AA now.

 

Not a huge surprise, he was considered one of the fastest to the majors college players and he came from a great baseball conference. I don't think the Twins should have taken him though.

 

(Of course, once he gets to Seattle, he'll hit like Nick Punto ...)

 

Well I had my doubts about him. If drafted by the Twins he would still be in Beloit . . .

[righty8383]

 

My other big disappointment with the draft was that the Twins left pool money on the table. They had a unique chance to add a few extra tough signs/above slot guys and they punted. With the current state of the franchise that shouldn't happen.

 

This is a big reason I hated some of the early college relief picks, Especially Bard. These moves reeked of penny pinching.

[Thrylos]

, BA ranked the new draft picks and put Buxton at 22 (right before Sano), .

 

Sano is just one year older than Buxton and he is mashing at 2 levels higher than Buxton, while Buxton is having a .750 OPS. Just cannot rate him higher than Sano. At this point, Sano has a couple of proven tools. Buxton is all about potential

[Brock Beauchamp]

, BA ranked the new draft picks and put Buxton at 22 (right before Sano), .

 

Sano is just one year older than Buxton and he is mashing at 2 levels higher than Buxton, while Buxton is having a .750 OPS. Just cannot rate him higher than Sano. At this point, Sano has a couple of proven tools. Buxton is all about potential

 

To take it a step further, Arcia should be higher than Buxton. Potential is great. Performance is better.

[bird]

I read somewhere that the Twins spent virtually ALL of the draft allottment (97% comes to mind). I think the claim about penny pinching is imaginary. They signed the 4th-best International prospect, outbidding others to do this, and spent their full International allottment as well.