Twins DFA Melotakis

[Otto von Ballpark]

Brooks Baseball had Melotakis with a 94 MPH average fastball velocity in the Arizona Fall League last year:

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/tabs.php?player=608691&p_hand=-1&ppos=-1&cn=200&gFilt=&time=month&minmax=ci&var=traj&s_type=2&startDate=01/01/2016&endDate=01/01/2017&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1

 

Here's the more recent report on his velocity:

http://www.twincities.com/2017/06/23/ailing-miguel-sano-sits-out-series-opener-against-indians/

 

 

Melotakis saw his velocity sit in the 89-90 mph range at Triple-A Rochester, where he recorded five outs without allowing a run. In the past, Melotakis had consistently run his fastball into the mid-90s

 

As the report alludes to, though, he only faced 6 batters at AAA.  What kind of velocity did he have in Chattanooga this year?  Has it been consistent all season?

 

He had an offseason oblique injury that kept him out of MLB spring training games, which probably prevented some spring fan scouting reports, unfortunately.  Still, he was ready enough to be the first guy out of the pen on Chattanooga's opening day April 6th.  Too bad we don't have any minor league PITCHf/x data for him...

[Otto von Ballpark]

While searching for any kind of velocity reports on Melotakis, I found that he was Seth's minor league reliever of the month for April:

 

http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins-minor-leagues/twins-minor-league-relief-pitcher-of-the-month-april-2017-r5546

 

I'd say it's unusual for that guy to be DFA'd before the end of June!

[Guest]

Couple more pieces of data: Melotakis had a mediocre strike percentage and his swinging strike rate was 12th on the Lookouts. This isn't promising data for a not-so-young AA reliever. He also had a .220 BABIP, which suggests that some of his outcome stats may have been based on luck.

 

The best argument for keeping him seems to be that other relievers aren't very good, which is true, but not necessarily something that says Melotakis is deserving of a shot.

 

It is fair to withhold judgment on management. However, I have to assume they know a thing or two and realized after three months that Melotakis wasn't going to help the big league club, regardless of his outcome stats in AA.

 

As for the suggestion that Murphy should have been DFA'd instead of Melotakis, I'd rather take the risk of DFAing the fifth reliever in AA (Rosario, Bard, Curtiss, Anderson) than the co-catcher in AAA, especially when there are other relievers in AAA (Reed, Rucinski, Pressly, Tonkin, Turley) and there isn't another catcher in the system ready for AAA.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Couple more pieces of data: Melotakis had a mediocre strike percentage and his swinging strike rate was 12th on the Lookouts. This isn't promising data for a not-so-young AA reliever. He also had a .220 BABIP, which suggests that some of his outcome stats may have been based on luck.

His strike percentage and swinging strike rate at Chattanooga this year is virtually the same as Randy Rosario, who was apparently worthy of a call-up straight to MLB earlier this month.  Admittedly Rosario is younger, so I'm not saying they're equals based on this stat, but I don't know if the gulf should be as wide as the Twins are claiming (skip AAA vs. cut).

 

And while the swinging strike rate "ranks 12th" (which includes some smaller samples), it's not meaningfully different than that of Reed, Romero, Jorge, etc.  Admittedly up another level, but his AA swinging strike rate was better than what Berrios, Boshers, and Busenitz posted in AAA this year.  Wouldn't you want to let him face more than 6 batters at AAA to see what happens there?  And despite the .220 BABIP, both his ERA and FIP were solid.

 

This and the velocity/health nugget are more of a justification for ranking him lower on the minor league reliever totem pole right now, which I wouldn't dispute (and would probably agree with).  But it's still not much of a justification for cutting him in favor of Gee and Breslow after facing only 6 batters at AAA.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Certainly worth monitoring. If he is claimed and healthy and effective in the majors this year the move would be pretty inexplicable.

That's probably too high of a bar.  Even if he's not healthy right now, what if he's claimed, stashed on the DL for a bit, and the velocity comes back?  Even if he doesn't go on to MLB success, I'd be fairly upset with our process in that case.  Or, what if he's claimed, goes to AAA this year, and is effective in MLB next year?  I'd say there are a variety of outcomes that would make this an odd move.  Plenty of outcomes that could help justify it too, of course.

 

One big one that should help clarify in the next few days is whether he clears waivers or not.  If he clears waivers, it will be a successful move, obviously.  If he doesn't, then we'll have to watch for more data.

[Guest]

 Wouldn't you want to let him face more than 6 batters at AAA to see what happens there?

 

But it's still not much of a justification for cutting him in favor of Gee and Breslow after facing only 6 batters at AAA.

Agree about 6 batters at AAA, but would rather have Gee and Breslow (warts and all) for the immediate MLB needs. Melotakis would get more time in AAA if the MLB bullpen didn't need repeated band-aids.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Agree about 6 batters at AAA, but would rather have Gee and Breslow (warts and all) for the immediate MLB needs. Melotakis would get more time in AAA if the MLB bullpen didn't need repeated band-aids.

See, I'm not sure about that trade-off.  Breslow isn't really offering anything right now -- he's exclusively a low-leverage reliever, and he's pretty much a short reliever too.  We have a 4-22 record in games that Breslow has appeared in this season, and he's only appeared in 5 games in the month of June so far.  He's absolutely not critical to our staff, and hasn't been for some time (arguably all season).

 

If we had to have Gee, I think you could have easily designated Breslow to make room for him.

[drjim]

That's probably too high of a bar. Even if he's not healthy right now, what if he's claimed, stashed on the DL for a bit, and the velocity comes back? Even if he doesn't go on to MLB success, I'd be fairly upset with our process in that case. Or, what if he's claimed, goes to AAA this year, and is effective in MLB next year? I'd say there are a variety of outcomes that would make this an odd move. Plenty of outcomes that could help justify it too, of course.

 

One big one that should help clarify in the next few days is whether he clears waivers or not. If he clears waivers, it will be a successful move, obviously. If he doesn't, then we'll have to watch for more data.

Success/effectiveness in the majors this year is pretty much all that matters for a reliever on the 40 man when measuring the worthiness of keeping him in this scenario. Maybe some success as as a setup man next year would give minimal pause, but not much. Beyond that, a reliever on the 40 man is a pretty fungible piece. They can't clog the 40 man for long.

 

Any other result wouldn't result in a second thought on outcome or process.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

It's that it continues a trend of the Twins dropping younger players with potentially higher upside in favor of retreads that have proven over and over that they can't contribute. I just don't get it.

As spycake has reiterated in this thread a few times, there are several ways this could play out and it could end up being a very good move in as many ways as it ends up being a bad move.

 

What we know right now is that Melotakis doesn't appear to have the velocity to warrant staying on the MLB team. Without more information why he doesn't have that velocity (or whe/if it will return), it's hard to get a read on why this happened.

 

If he clears waivers (and Falvey/Levine were confident that was going to happen), this is a pretty good move, even if Melotakis never amounts to anything. If he's claimed on waivers, then we're going to need to wait this out and see what happens.

 

I'd like to see several guys removed from this bullpen, just like everybody else. But I also like how this front office isn't afraid to move pieces around on a weekly basis. And if they're playing a bit of sleight of hand to get Melotakis through waivers, that's okay with me. If Melotakis is injured and unlikely to recover and he's booted from the org, that's also okay with me.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Success/effectiveness in the majors this year is pretty much all that matters for a reliever on the 40 man when measuring the worthiness of keeping him in this scenario. Maybe some success as as a setup man next year would give minimal pause, but not much. Beyond that, a reliever on the 40 man is a pretty fungible piece. They can't clog the 40 man for long.

Any other result wouldn't result in a second thought on outcome or process.

Would you have cut Breslow before him?  Keep in mind, they could have cut Breslow immediately after he had thrown 45 pitches Thursday, and replaced him with a fresh Gee for Friday's game.

 

I know you're in the "cut Breslow for Reed soon" camp, so you would think cutting him a week or two ahead of schedule to let Melotakis throw a bit in AAA and see what else develops might be more prudent.

 

Are Chargois and Rosario next on your cut list?  They are relievers who likely will not achieve "success/effectiveness in the majors this year".  Haley would seem to not be meeting your  requirement either (and frankly would have been a good candidate for the 60-day DL, if there was really a 40-man crunch last week -- he's been out almost a month with shoulder soreness already, I see he is just starting rehab in rookie ball today but I think I'd let him rehab for quite awhile anyway).

[drjim]

 

Would you have cut Breslow before him?  Keep in mind, they could have cut Breslow immediately after he had thrown 45 pitches Thursday, and replaced him with a fresh Gee for Friday's game.

 

I know you're in the "cut Breslow for Reed soon" camp, so you would think cutting him a week or two ahead of schedule to let Melotakis throw a bit in AAA and see what else develops might be more prudent.

 

Are Chargois and Rosario next on your cut list?  They are relievers who likely will not achieve "success/effectiveness in the majors this year".  Haley would seem to not be meeting your  requirement either (and frankly would have been a good candidate for the 60-day DL, if there was really a 40-man crunch last week -- he's been out almost a month with shoulder soreness already, I see he is just starting rehab in rookie ball today but I think I'd let him rehab for quite awhile anyway).

 

I would have cut Breslow weeks ago.

 

Rosario no, he's 3 years younger, healthy, and has his stuff intact (as fas as I know). Obviously international guys and college relievers are a different equation. Chargois is entering a dangerous time to remain on the 40 man. I don't know why they are keeping Haley either.

 

Breslow and Haley (and Chargois to a lesser extent) show there is more fat to cut.

[yarnivek1972]

As far as I know, they can't "legally" DFA Chargois as long as he is injured.  Not sure if the Twins can "return" Haley to Boston while he is on the DL.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

As far as I know, they can't "legally" DFA Chargois as long as he is injured.  Not sure if the Twins can "return" Haley to Boston while he is on the DL.

They can DFA an injured player -- they just can't outright them to the minor leagues during the regular season (which is often the desired outcome of a DFA).  They could trade them or release them, though.

 

Rule 5 players are a little different -- they can be traded, but they can't be released while under Rule 5 restrictions. There must be some mechanism to eventually return an injured player, though -- otherwise, if a Rule 5 guy suffered a career-ending injury before his Rule 5 restrictions were up, I don't think he'd be eternally locked into a team's 40-man roster!  Maybe just for that season?  I don't know.

 

Not that I recommend releasing these guys, just interested in transaction rules!

[Thrylos]

 

Couple more pieces of data: Melotakis had a mediocre strike percentage and his swinging strike rate was 12th on the Lookouts. This isn't promising data for a not-so-young AA reliever. He also had a .220 BABIP, which suggests that some of his outcome stats may have been based on luck.

 

His K% in AA was 30.4 %  which is by no means "mediocre".  Just behind Turley (52.3%), Bard (36.9%), Curtiss (35.4%) & Gonsalves (32.1%).  His BABIP (.220) was low, but so is Gonzalves's (.226) and Curtiss's (.231)

 

Are Curtiss and Gonsalves "mediocre" as well?

[Thrylos]

 

As far as I know, they can't "legally" DFA Chargois as long as he is injured.  Not sure if the Twins can "return" Haley to Boston while he is on the DL.

 

They don't need to DFA Chargois, just add him to the 60-day DL...

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I would have cut Breslow weeks ago.

 

Rosario no, he's 3 years younger, healthy, and has his stuff intact (as fas as I know). Obviously international guys and college relievers are a different equation. Chargois is entering a dangerous time to remain on the 40 man. I don't know why they are keeping Haley either.

 

Breslow and Haley (and Chargois to a lesser extent) show there is more fat to cut.

I agree with all of that, and I'd add -- it's not just fat on the pitching side.  Palka is probably on thin 40-man ice too, although I notice he is on Rochester's DL just like Chargois so it is a little tougher to remove him right now.

 

Or Vargas, really.  77 wRC+.  Not that I advocate cutting him, but if we truly get into a roster crunch, he would have to be examined.

[yarnivek1972]

They don't need to DFA Chargois, just add him to the 60-day DL...

Which would require the Twins to rescind his option from March and retroactively award him service time and pay. If the Twins were willing to do that they would have done so already as it is pretty clear now that Chargois should have been put on the DL in March.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Which would require the Twins to rescind his option from March and retroactively award him service time and pay. If the Twins were willing to do that they would have done so already as it is pretty clear now that Chargois should have been put on the DL in March.

And I'm not even sure the league would allow that now.

[yarnivek1972]

And I'm not even sure the league would allow that now.

I am somewhat surprised his agent didn't file a greivance on the matter. Maybe Chargois didn't disclose pain until after being optioned, but the Twins knew (at the latest) on day 1 of the season that Chargois was hurt. Don't the Twins have coaches that are supposed to recognize signs of injury? Did anyone ask?

[old nurse]

 

Success/effectiveness in the majors this year is pretty much all that matters for a reliever on the 40 man when measuring the worthiness of keeping him in this scenario. Maybe some success as as a setup man next year would give minimal pause, but not much. Beyond that, a reliever on the 40 man is a pretty fungible piece. They can't clog the 40 man for long.

Any other result wouldn't result in a second thought on outcome or process.

6-7 relievers are fungible, effective set up and medium leverage relievers not so much

[drjim]

 

6-7 relievers are fungible, effective set up and medium leverage relievers not so much

 

Agree on the second part, but Melotakis hasn't shown he's anywhere near that. He was headed to being 26 with two full years on the 40 man not cracking the bigs with diminishing velo.

[drjim]

 

I agree with all of that, and I'd add -- it's not just fat on the pitching side.  Palka is probably on thin 40-man ice too, although I notice he is on Rochester's DL just like Chargois so it is a little tougher to remove him right now.

 

Or Vargas, really.  77 wRC+.  Not that I advocate cutting him, but if we truly get into a roster crunch, he would have to be examined.

 

I doubt Vargas and Palka survive next offseason. If the Twins hang in the race, could see them adding a veteran corner bat and removing them quicker.

[Guest]

His K% in AA was 30.4 %  which is by no means "mediocre".  Just behind Turley (52.3%), Bard (36.9%), Curtiss (35.4%) & Gonsalves (32.1%).  His BABIP (.220) was low, but so is Gonzalves's (.226) and Curtiss's (.231)

 

Are Curtiss and Gonsalves "mediocre" as well?

Gonsalves and Curtiss have much better SwStr% and K/9, as I'm sure you saw. Gonsalves, of course, is a starter, so it's apples to oranges, but a reliever should be better than a starter. Curtiss has at least two advantages over Melotakis: (1) he's a better pitcher, and (2) he's not on the 40-man.

 

Btw, I didn't say Melotakis was "mediocre." I just said his 63% strike percentage is mediocre. Regarding the K% you cite, it is likely management believed that it is not sustainable with a low strike percentage and SwStr% - in his second year of AA.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Gonsalves and Curtiss have much better SwStr% and K/9, as I'm sure you saw. Gonsalves, of course, is a starter, so it's apples to oranges, but a reliever should be better than a starter. Curtiss has at least two advantages over Melotakis: (1) he's a better pitcher, and (2) he's not on the 40-man.

Btw, I didn't say Melotakis was "mediocre." I just said his 63% strike percentage is mediocre. Regarding the K% you cite, it is likely management believed that it is not sustainable with a low strike percentage and SwStr% - in his second year of AA.

 

guess that might indicate that the analytics dept. has a bit more pull in this org.

[Guest]

See, I'm not sure about that trade-off.  Breslow isn't really offering anything right now -- he's exclusively a low-leverage reliever, and he's pretty much a short reliever too.  We have a 4-22 record in games that Breslow has appeared in this season, and he's only appeared in 5 games in the month of June so far.  He's absolutely not critical to our staff, and hasn't been for some time (arguably all season).

 

If we had to have Gee, I think you could have easily designated Breslow to make room for him.

Let me ask this: if the Twins offered Melotakis in trade, with the only requirement being to get someone who could help right now, what do you think they could get? Probably nobody that's any better than Belisle, Breslow or Gee, and that would be only from a team that could stash him off the 40-man. If anyone thinks there's an MLB-ready reliever that could be acquired one-up for Melotakis, let me know who.

[DocBauer]

Been a fan, and a hopeful one at that, for Melotakis for some time now. I clearly admit an affinity for LH pitchers, both starters and relievers. I've been disappointed and confused about this entire issue since it began. Just spot balling here...but...

 

I have to believe the velocity drop is an issue. As is the lack of back to back appearances. But then why the promotion to AAA just before the roster move? I think it's pretty safe to say that we not only don't have all the information and may never. I think we can all agree, despite being tremendous and intelligent fans, we aren't necessary owed some length thought process description explanation by the FO with regard to any move. They have a lot more to do and worry about than appeasing fans' information appetite. But I would have to guess they didn't feel he was ready, they had to make a move, felt there were other arms that could help more immediately in some capacity, (yes, heaven help us, maybe even Turley in some capacity), and felt there was a good chance Melotakis might just slide through and stick with Rochester with the idea he could be added again to the roster down the road.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Let me ask this: if the Twins offered Melotakis in trade, with the only requirement being to get someone who could help right now, what do you think they could get? Probably nobody that's any better than Belisle, Breslow or Gee, and that would be only from a team that could stash him off the 40-man. If anyone thinks there's an MLB-ready reliever that could be acquired one-up for Melotakis, let me know who.

I'm not sure what this is supposed to prove.  I don't think Busenitz or Hildenberger would get much in trade right now either, should we cut them too?

 

Also, we have yet to see that no other team is willing to give Melotakis a 40-man roster spot.

 

And finally, again, I've got to dispute your contention that Breslow is providing "help right now" in any meaningful way.  He's not eating significant innings, he's pitching exclusively in mop-up situations, and he has no options to temporarily exchange him for a fresh arm -- so if he throws 45 pitches in relief like last Thursday, you've got to boot someone else from the roster to add Dillon Gee in time for the next game.  If Breslow was the best that I could get in trade for a player, well, I just wouldn't make the trade right now.

[David HK]

 

As far as I know, they can't "legally" DFA Chargois as long as he is injured.  Not sure if the Twins can "return" Haley to Boston while he is on the DL.

They gotta keep Haley around.  I mean, look how well that Rule 5 move for JR Graham worked out---

[mlhouse]

 

They've given several prospects a chance to prove themselves. Unfortunately the legit options (Chargois, Reed, Burdi) got hurt. Reed will probably make his debut in the next few weeks if he does well in AAA.

I'm confused. Are you advocating calling up Hurlbut when he has mediocre stuff? I don't see much of a difference between him and a waiver wire pickup.

 

Yes.  I advocate the Twins find out about their prospects and give them the opportunity to prove they do not belong.  If Hurlbut was awful statistically, it would be a diferent strory.  I get he isn't the most talented pitcher.  I have watched him pitch several times and he has is mediocre.  But, the results he has produced deserve a chance to see if his control is ufficeint to be a pitcher on a major league team.

 

J

[Jham]

What would it take to get Haley's rights? If we said, "look, he's either going to the 60 day, and you get nothing, or you get Melo" (or wim or palka) wouldn't they accept and we option? What do they think they're going to get?