In Defense of Molitor's Monday Bullpen Usage

[Brandon Warne]

Penned a column for Zone Coverage suggesting I think I actually see what Molitor was going for on Monday:

 

https://t.co/9eTCdjXGvi

 

Let me know what you think

 

[drivlikejehu]

You lost me at "In defense of . . ."

[Halsey Hall]

I agree.  Not sure I'd of done anything different yesterday.  I think Molitor is doing a good job, unlike many others here.

[yarnivek1972]

You never really specifically addressed why Rucinski, who has been in the bigs before, didn't pitch with a 6 run lead.

 

The ultimate problem is that Molitor doesn't seem to understand (or possibly care) that overusing relievers has consequences.

 

I (and others) have said this before. Winning should have been the secondary goal yesterday. Resting the pen was goal number one. If you win in the process, great.

 

Molitor did neither. The pen is still short at least 3 guys tonight and the Twins still lost.

[Craig Arko]

Penned a column for Zone Coverage suggesting I think I actually see what Molitor was going for on Monday:

 

https://t.co/9eTCdjXGvi

 

Let me know what you think

Pretty sound analysis.

[Thrylos]

My counter point would be that if you do not trust enough to use a fresh arm with 6 runs up and 2 innings left the day he was supposed to start in Rochester, you should had never brought him up in the first place.

 

Molitor blew it big time.

 

 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Penned a column for Zone Coverage suggesting I think I actually see what Molitor was going for on Monday:

 

https://t.co/9eTCdjXGvi

 

Let me know what you think

 

 I dig it... and I agree with it... 

 

1.) Pressly was deemed able to pitch, so he pitched.

2.) Definitely agree on Wheeler.

3.) Definitely wonder why it was Rucinski over Boshers - neither is good, but Rucinski had thrown a bunch on Saturday. 

[Brandon Warne]

 

My counter point would be that if you do not trust enough to use a fresh arm with 6 runs up and 2 innings left the day he was supposed to start in Rochester, you should had never brought him up in the first place.

 

Molitor blew it big time.

 

Because they want him to be available in the event of a short start in the days to come to give them length. That's why he's up here. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

right or wrong, the Twins have had a practice to not play that guy the day he's called up for his debut to give him a day to acclimate.  Not sure how other teams handle it, but not playing Wheeler is defensible. 

 

I kind of go with the flip side in that I'd have brought in Rucinski for the 8th and possibly 9th... that wouldn't have worked out well. 

 

I think the bigger mistake was alluded to by LA Vikes Fan...  You cannot abuse a pen/relievers for too long before it comes back to bite you.  We saw that with some of Gardy's pens too.  Gardy didn't have reliever issues when he had 4 lights out guys he could call on... when that disappeared, he started relying on people who invariably got hurt or had the occasional blow out like yesterday.  I can live with a yesterday if the key players stay healthy.  That's my bigger concern.

[TonyInOmaha]

Molitor has not managed the bullpen well this year. A big part of that may be a lack of talent, but it's frankly hard to tell.

I think it's pretty clear a big part of the bullpen issues have to do with a lack of talent. I'm not sure how you can judge Molitor's ability to manage a bullpen based on the options he's had available.

[Thrylos]

Here is the other undefendable choice:

 

The Twins' best relievers are:

Tyler Duffey (2.10 ERA, 2.64 FIP, 0.935 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 5.4 K/BB)  and

Taylor Rogers (3.12 ERA, 3.14 FIP, 1.212 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, 3.3 K/BB)

 

They were about as rested as Belisle and Breslow when things went South with Pressly.

 

How come neither of them was used?

[ashbury]

Unclear to me in all the discussion since yesterday is what plan Molitor had for the ninth inning, supposing Pressly had succeeded to a reasonable degree in the eighth. Did he say? Would he use Breslow, who was the next in the actual parade of relievers as events unfolded? Pressly for another inning? Or someone else? I'll go with Breslow, for discussion purposes.

• Now, what would be the outcome if this plan had succeeded? A victory, and for Tuesday and beyond you have Rucinski and Wheeler even fresher (they did come in with some recent mileage), and Pressly/Breslow unavailable for duty on Tuesday.
• What would be the outcome if the plan failed? We found out, of course. A longshot loss, Belisle and Rucinski in addition to Pressly and Breslow unavailable Tuesday, Wheeler still fresh as a daisy, as these things go.

Next, consider the plan various critics seem to advocate: Rucinski in the 8th, and I suppose either Rucinski again in the 9th or Wheeler, in the name of saving the bullpen.

• If that plan succeeds at all, even with a few runs scored to somebody's embarrassment, you have your expected win, and Pressly and Breslow rested going forward, with Belisle also rested, being further down on the depth chart.
• If that plan fails, you have burned Rucinski and Wheeler, and have to bring in someone else, one of the three we actually saw. If they all fail, you lose in the same kind of debacle, but with the outcome of Breslow or Belisle rested for Tuesday or afterward.

I'm sorry. That got long-winded. But I found it necessary to think through all the scenarios, to reach the conclusion that I believed to be in there: that even if Molitor's plan had worked, it wouldn't have worked very well.

 

Wheeler's the wild card in this speculation. Which is more important, to have an experienced starter in reserve for long relief in the rest of the series with Houston, or to get that bullpen rested up? I guess some of it depends on how pessimistic Molitor is on Berrios.

 

Boil it down to this. Five pitchers under consideration: Pressly, Breslow, Belisle, Rucinski, Wheeler. Rank them according to whom you want rested and ready for Tuesday (an 8-2 lead on Monday gives you that luxury). Let's say Molitor sees Wheeler as crucial as the long-man - fine, he might be wise about that. But he doesn't like Rucinski? Then he's the lowest priority for Tuesday, and that makes him first to go in the eighth inning on Monday. Belisle next, I suppose, then Breslow, whom you leave in to mop up to game's end if things go as badly as they actually went.

 

With an 8-2 lead, I just don't see how the upside/downside calculation favors what Molitor did.

[ashbury]

I kind of go with the flip side in that I'd have brought in Rucinski for the 8th and possibly 9th... that wouldn't have worked out well.

A lot of replies came in while I was typing, but I want to reiterate something. As I think you're implying, it's 20/20 hindsight to look at which pitcher was effective and which was not, as events actually played out. But the right way to look at it, IMO, is to compare how one plan compares to another when it works, and then see if the downside is too much worse when it doesn't. Rucinski in the 8th, at a minimum, stands out a mile in my book. If he fails, so what, you're back where you were. But what if he succeeded, even marginally, staggering out with an 8-6 win, say? That's a realistic plan, and one worth going for.

[DaveW]

When you give up 14 runs in two innings, I'm not sure you can defend anyone that had anything to do with that debacle.

Hopefully that was just a one time thing from Molly. Mistakes happen, hopefully he won't do it again

Giving up 14 runs in two innings should happen to a club like once every 4-5 years, and should never happen in a game where they are leading by 6 runs and only need 6 outs!!

[yarnivek1972]

Perkins, May, Pressly, even Tonkin.  How many more pitchers are the Twins going to allow Paul Molitor to destroy by overuse?

 

All those guys were used and abused in the first halves of recent seasons under Molitor only to spend time on the DL in the second halves and see their effectiveness disappear.  This isn't coincidence.  It's a trend.

 

It's Paul Molitor "not having confidence" in certain guys.  You know what?  Too bad!  They are the guys you have.  It's your job to not overuse them because in the long run that is a 162 game season it is a losing strategy.

 

It's too bad some of the top reliever prospects are hurt, but maybe it's a blessing in disguise.  I don't want Burdi et al anywhere near Paul Molitor.  One has to wonder if Paul Molitor is also a gigantic deterrent to upper tier FA relievers.  If I were one, I'd sure stay away given his track record.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Another idea is to start with Wheeler in the 8th, and if he gets through the inning in good shape, he can also pitch the 9th and maybe give the Twins the two innings of "length" they wanted.

 

Granted it's hindsight, but one would expect the coaches in the dugout to be strategizing this stuff in real time. Like Dave said, no one looks good, including the Internet coaches

[DaveW]

Perkins, May, Pressly, even Tonkin. How many more pitchers are the Twins going to allow Paul Molitor to destroy by overuse?

 

All those guys were used and abused in the first halves of recent seasons under Molitor only to spend time on the DL in the second halves and see their effectiveness disappear. This isn't coincidence. It's a trend.

 

It's Paul Molitor "not having confidence" in certain guys. You know what? Too bad! They are the guys you have. It's your job to not overuse them because in the long run that is a 162 game season it is a losing strategy.

 

It's too bad some of the top reliever prospects are hurt, but maybe it's a blessing in disguise. I don't want Burdi et al anywhere near Paul Molitor. One has to wonder if Paul Molitor is also a gigantic deterrent to upper tier FA relievers. If I were one, I'd sure stay away given his track record.

Not sure how Molitor "ruined" Perkins.

 

Arm injuries happen.

 

May? I still think yo-yoing him between SP and RP was the larger issue.

 

Tonkin? Come on man...you are reaching with this one.

[Riverbrian]

A manager has to manage the way he is comfortable managing so I have no problem with his decisions. That is what he is paid to do. 

 

However... There was absolutely no reason to call up Rucinski if Molitor didn't trust him with a 6 run lead.

 

Wheeler could have been that short start insurance. That extra inning... we have thrown everybody... bring it home insurance. 

 

There was no reason for Rucinski to be in uniform if Molitor can't use him with a 6 run lead. 

 

If you don't trust them to pitch for you. They shouldn't be on the roster. 

 

My point of contention is going to be with whoever decided that a 2nd cardboard cutout was necessary because of the taxed bullpen. 

[yarnivek1972]

Not sure how Molitor "ruined" Perkins.

 

Arm injuries happen.

 

May? I still think yo-yoing him between SP and RP was the larger issue.

 

Tonkin? Come on man...you are reaching with this one.

Well, I had a whole bunch of numbers I was going to post with this argument. As I was typing, I lost my connection to this site somehow. I really didn't feel like looking them all up and retyping them.

 

The short version is that those guys racked up a ton of appearances in the first half of seasons and then broke down in the second half. DL stints, diminished results.

 

I'm sure flip flopping May didn't help, but he was a reliever for all of 2016, when his injury appeared. So, was it the switch in general or just the workload? No real way to know.

[drjim]

If Perkins was overused, it is basically impossible not to overuse a reliever in modern baseball. His usage was very normal.

 

I'll maybe grant Pressly, but everyone else there is a stretch.

[drjim]

You never really specifically addressed why Rucinski, who has been in the bigs before, didn't pitch with a 6 run lead.

 

The ultimate problem is that Molitor doesn't seem to understand (or possibly care) that overusing relievers has consequences.

 

I (and others) have said this before. Winning should have been the secondary goal yesterday. Resting the pen was goal number one. If you win in the process, great.

 

Molitor did neither. The pen is still short at least 3 guys tonight and the Twins still lost.

Winning is not a secondary goal.

 

The relivers used were deemed ready, that weren't bring overused. It really shouldn't matter if 5 or 6/7 relievers are available the next day. Win the game in front of you.

[drjim]

right or wrong, the Twins have had a practice to not play that guy the day he's called up for his debut to give him a day to acclimate. Not sure how other teams handle it, but not playing Wheeler is defensible.

 

I kind of go with the flip side in that I'd have brought in Rucinski for the 8th and possibly 9th... that wouldn't have worked out well.

 

I think the bigger mistake was alluded to by LA Vikes Fan... You cannot abuse a pen/relievers for too long before it comes back to bite you. We saw that with some of Gardy's pens too. Gardy didn't have reliever issues when he had 4 lights out guys he could call on... when that disappeared, he started relying on people who invariably got hurt or had the occasional blow out like yesterday. I can live with a yesterday if the key players stay healthy. That's my bigger concern.

They don't have that practice and that's not why Wheeler didn't pitch.

[yarnivek1972]

Winning is not a secondary goal.

 

The relivers used were deemed ready, that weren't bring overused. It really shouldn't matter if 5 or 6/7 relievers are available the next day. Win the game in front of you.

I call into serious question Paul Molitor's judgement as to whether a reliever has been overused. His track record speaks for itself.

 

As for "winning the game in front of you", if that was the only consideration, teams would use their best relievers every day they had a lead. But they don't. Because they can't. Because history has shown what happens when relievers work too much. It is the manager's job to balance rest and results. Paul doesn't err on the side of rest nearly often enough.

 

And just to be clear, unlike a lot of the posts here, mine are not a case of second guessing. You can check the game day thread. I was saying "why Pressly" before he even threw a pitch.

[drjim]

I call into serious question Paul Molitor's judgement as to whether a reliever has been overused. His track record speaks for itself.

 

As for "winning the game in front of you", if that was the only consideration, teams would use their best relievers every day they had a lead. But they don't. Because they can't. Because history has shown what happens when relievers work too much. It is the manager's job to balance rest and results. Paul doesn't err on the side of rest nearly often enough.

 

And just to be clear, unlike a lot of the posts here, mine are not a case of second guessing. You can check the game day thread. I was saying "why Pressly" before he even threw a pitch.

I don't think his track record is much different than anyone else. This is how managers use relievers. Do you have any comparison?

 

The Twins have one pitcher in the top 50 in games pitched, and that's Rogers, who often goes less than an inning.

[yarnivek1972]

Look up the workload for Pressly, May and Tonkin the last two seasons, particularly first half. Pressly, for example, appeared in 42 games before the Break last year. And that was in a season when they were out of it before May. I realize that's not the exact midpoint. It's usually around game 90 or so. I also realize that there are relievers who work more. But they usually aren't guys who throw hard like Pressly, May and Tonkin.

 

When looking up the numbers for this year, you also have to remember the Twins rainouts mean they have played 3-4 fewer games than almost every other team. The Rays have played 7 more than the Twins.

[drjim]

Pressly last year is somewhat fair, but I still don't see it as that excessive.

 

Fair point on rainouts, extrapolation would put a couple guys on the back end of top 50.

[yarnivek1972]

Pressly last year is somewhat fair, but I still don't see it as that excessive.

 

Fair point on rainouts, extrapolation would put a couple guys on the back end of top 50.

Maybe not for some guys. It obviously was for Pressly and the other guys I named. Too much work in the first half led to DL stints and/or drastically reduced effectiveness. It's the manager's job to know HIS guys.

[TonyInOmaha]

I agree that there hasn't been a high level of talent in the bullpen but I think you can judge Molitor. he has been very inflexible about how he uses  his relievers and he has been unwilling to pitch some of the fresh arms when they come up. He also seems to not understand how to balance relievers so they're not constantly overtaxed. I really think this is one of his big weaknesses.

I'm just curious how any manager is supposed to balance his relievers when the bullpen is short on reliable arms to hold a lead. I'm sure Molitor would love to have the option to be more flexible late in close games but that's just not possible right now with what he has available. I think he's done a pretty good job using what he has to get wins that are there. If that's overtaxed the bullpen, it's more due to lack of depth than mismanagement.

[dougd]

Pressly had pitched in back to back games four times this year. He had not allowed a run on day 2 until Monday.

[The Wise One]

Molitor did exactly the right thing.  He exposed the relievers for what they are. If the front office is serious about winning, throw the trash out there against the best hitters. Identify that they are what they are so you can get the replacements. 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ugtksp5J6lg

Couldn't resist a plug for old favorites to remind you all they still exist

Seriously if the bullpen was being mostly effective against the lower tier teams it is not going to help Molitor out against the good teams if they are not going to be effective. I would think after a half century Molitor has a clue on if what a pitcher regularly throws will be effective or not.  Convince the brass others are needed for the long run because otherwise he is not going to win

 

Overuse. At this point in the season over 24 innings or 24 appearances are overuse. Duffey is around that, Kinzler and Rodgers are close.  Historically Molitor does not overuse bullpen arms.  (long relievers about 100-120  innings, 80 on everyone else with  about 75 appearances being an upper limit for relievers)