25-Man Power Rankings

[Brandon Warne]

I did power rankings for the current active roster:

 

http://zonecoverage.com/2017/twins/minnesota-twins-25-man-power-rankings-version-1-o/

 

As always, thoughtful discussion is appreciated!

[Mill1634]

Flip Castro and Vargas. Flip Esco and Hector. 

 

Also, Joe Mauer should be in the top ten, IMO. When I think of power rankings, I don't necessarily think of rankings teams, or players in this case, from best to worst, but who has been hot. Mauer has had an excellent month and that warrants a spot in the top 10. 

[jun]

Dozier at #4 is way too high. He is lucky to be in top 10. Vargas should be in top 10, Berrios should be at #4. Buxton is a bit high as well.

[Brandon Warne]

 

Dozier at #4 is way too high. He is lucky to be in top 10. Vargas should be in top 10, Berrios should be at #4. Buxton is a bit high as well.

 

If you think Vargas and Dozier have been roughly equal this year, I don't particularly trust your analysis. 

[Brandon Warne]

 

Flip Castro and Vargas. Flip Esco and Hector. 

 

Also, Joe Mauer should be in the top ten, IMO. When I think of power rankings, I don't necessarily think of rankings teams, or players in this case, from best to worst, but who has been hot. Mauer has had an excellent month and that warrants a spot in the top 10. 

 

Sure, he's been hot....but he's still below league average as a hitter and even more so at first base. The first month still matters.

[jun]

 

If you think Vargas and Dozier have been roughly equal this year, I don't particularly trust your analysis. 

Their production might not be equal. Vargas does not have enough at bat. At 74 at bat, Vargas has 18 RBI. At 158 at bat, Dozier has 16 RBI. I think Dozier has some speed, though he has been caught quite a few times as well. I believe Vargas is a better hitter. Vargas reminds me of a young Ortiz. To me their production is pretty much equal at this point. Dozier has below average defense. Vargas has average or below average defense.

[Brandon Warne]

 

Their production might not be equal. Vargas does not have enough at bat. At 74 at bat, Vargas has 18 RBI. At 158 at bat, Dozier has 16 RBI. I think Dozier has some speed, though he has been caught quite a few times as well. I believe Vargas is a better hitter. Vargas reminds me of a young Ortiz. To me their production is pretty much equal at this point. Dozier has below average defense. Vargas has average or below average defense.

 

With all due respect, I stand by what I said.

[yarnivek1972]

I agree that Vargas is way too low. Lower than Castro? Pressly??? His .820 OPS is 3rd best on the team. He has a .250 ISO. I realize he's only had half the at bats as most of the regulars. Tell it to Paul Molitor. I also realize you are factoring in defense for Castro, but still. He isn't drawing walks like he did last year. I'm not sure why. If I am interpreting the numbers correctly, he has swung and missed 19% of the strikes thrown to him, which is the lowest of career and he's put just under 30% of strikes in play, almost 2.5% higher than his previous best season. It seems to me that part of the reason he is walking less is because he's having quite a bit of success swinging the bat right now.

[SydneyTwinsFan]

Kintzler feels a bit hard done by, in terms of the role he has been asked to do and the effectiveness with which he has done it. By WPA and ERA+ he belongs in the top 5, and even though his peripherals haven't been overpowering, that wasn't held against Santana.

 

I don't have a strong view on the Vargas v Dozier debate above, but worth noting that in terms of wRC+ and WPA Vargas (116, 0.32) edges Dozier (111, -0.18) and the difference in fWAR (0.3 Vargas and 0.6 Dozier) is all positional (although also skewed in Vargas' favour by some unsustainable base running stats).

[ThejacKmp]

Pressley is way too high. Matt Belisle too low. He's not great but he's been okay.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Kintzler feels a bit hard done by, in terms of the role he has been asked to do and the effectiveness with which he has done it. By WPA and ERA+ he belongs in the top 5, and even though his peripherals haven't been overpowering, that wasn't held against Santana.

 

I don't have a strong view on the Vargas v Dozier debate above, but worth noting that in terms of wRC+ and WPA Vargas (116, 0.32) edges Dozier (111, -0.18) and the difference in fWAR (0.3 Vargas and 0.6 Dozier) is all positional (although also skewed in Vargas' favour by some unsustainable base running stats).

 

Sample size is the big thing for me. Vargas has never proven he can carry a team or sustain success and demand playing time. Dozier has done that and since everything else is pretty close, Dozier should win.

I have no issue with Vargas on this list. He's got to do this for longer, 74 ABs is too small a sample size for any meaningful analysis. 

[ThejacKmp]

 

Their production might not be equal. Vargas does not have enough at bat. At 74 at bat, Vargas has 18 RBI. At 158 at bat, Dozier has 16 RBI. I think Dozier has some speed, though he has been caught quite a few times as well. I believe Vargas is a better hitter. Vargas reminds me of a young Ortiz. To me their production is pretty much equal at this point. Dozier has below average defense. Vargas has average or below average defense.

 

Man, RBI are a terrible argument. They're about how often you're in a situation, not how good you are. They are an utterly worthless and meaningless statistic, we should ban them.

 

For example, dig deeper into these two. Vargas has had 52 baserunners in 74 AB, Dozier has had 91 in 182. Vargas has had BRs on in 70% of his at bats and Dozier has only had them on in 50%. That plays a huge role in raw RBI numbers. And that RBI boom is pushed in large part by home runs. Vargas has a 20% HR/FB rate compared to 9.2% for Dozier (he's averaged 12.5% the past three years). Vargas has a tiny sample size and will come back to earth, Dozier's success is likely to expand.

[SydneyTwinsFan]

Sample size is the big thing for me. Vargas has never proven he can carry a team or sustain success and demand playing time. Dozier has done that and since everything else is pretty close, Dozier should win.

 

I have no issue with Vargas on this list. He's got to do this for longer, 74 ABs is too small a sample size for any meaningful analysis.

 

I agree that if you were building a team around either Dozier or Vargas, you go with Dozier every time based on track record, sustainability of success etc. In the context of a "power ranking" based on performance to date in the current season though, I'm not sure there is as much separation between them as Brandon's rankings suggest.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Their production might not be equal. Vargas does not have enough at bat. At 74 at bat, Vargas has 18 RBI. At 158 at bat, Dozier has 16 RBI. I think Dozier has some speed, though he has been caught quite a few times as well. I believe Vargas is a better hitter. Vargas reminds me of a young Ortiz. To me their production is pretty much equal at this point. Dozier has below average defense. Vargas has average or below average defense.

You used RBI to compare a lead off hitter and a guy who hits behind Miguel Sano.

 

Yeah... no.

[yarnivek1972]

Sample size is the big thing for me. Vargas has never proven he can carry a team or sustain success and demand playing time. Dozier has done that and since everything else is pretty close, Dozier should win.

 

I have no issue with Vargas on this list. He's got to do this for longer, 74 ABs is too small a sample size for any meaningful analysis.

I would argue he's never been given the chance given to others. He's always shown that when he makes contact the ball usually travels a long way. IMO he HAS earned playing time that for other reasons hasn't been given to him.

 

Other than 2015, his OPS+ for his career is over 115. Some seem to be forgiving the sophomore slump by Sano. Some reason why Vargas wasn't allowed that same consideration?

 

He is an extremely powerful, extremely dangerous hitter. I'm not saying he should be the second ranked hitter. But do I believe he should be ranked ahead of a catcher straddling the Mendoza line and a reliever who's allowing a lot of hits and a lot of extra base hits? Yes.

[Brandon Warne]

 

Some seem to be forgiving the sophomore slump by Sano. Some reason why Vargas wasn't allowed that same consideration?

 

Because they're drastically different players? Sano hit .236/.319/.462 in his tough season, which is basically what Vargas is capable of. He doesn't have any sort of season close to Sano's rookie season. Why are you comparing the two at all?

[Brandon Warne]

 

I would argue he's never been given the chance given to others. He's always shown that when he makes contact the ball usually travels a long way. IMO he HAS earned playing time that for other reasons hasn't been given to him.

Other than 2015, his OPS+ for his career is over 115. Some seem to be forgiving the sophomore slump by Sano. Some reason why Vargas wasn't allowed that same consideration?

He is an extremely powerful, extremely dangerous hitter. I'm not saying he should be the second ranked hitter. But do I believe he should be ranked ahead of a catcher straddling the Mendoza line and a reliever who's allowing a lot of hits and a lot of extra base hits? Yes.

 

That catcher is a huge reason why the pitching staff has taken a giant step forward with essentially the same cast of characters -- as noted in the article -- and a reliever who is throwing 98 with a nasty curve and slider who is starting to turn things around. Vargas has no OBP and isn't playing very much. 

[yarnivek1972]

Because they're drastically different players? Sano hit .236/.319/.462 in his tough season, which is basically what Vargas is capable of. He doesn't have any sort of season close to Sano's rookie season. Why are you comparing the two at all?

I don't think I ever said they had comparable ceilings. Both had success in an abbreviated rookie campaign. Both saw their OPS drop about .150 in their second season. Both showed improvement over their rookie season in their third season. Seems like a pretty parallel path to me. Parallel, NOT equal.

 

As for the playing time, don't even get me started. It isn't up to Vargas when he plays. All he can do is produce when he does. And he has. His career OPS is higher than Mauer's (the guy who plays Vargas' position) since the time Vargas came into the league. And although I haven't checked, it's likely as good or better than other players that have been used as the DH during that time. I'm not even sure who that be. Vargas has probably had more DH at bats than any other single player over the last 3 years plus.

 

When he plays, he mashes the ball. He did show good obp ability last year, so it is a skill he has. As I said, I'm not sure why he isn't this year. I think he will with more playing time. He's striking out 20% of the time, which is considerably better than he ever has before. So, is that not also showing progress as a hitter?

 

As for Pressly, you are valuing his ability over his results. It's your list, you are certainly able to rank as you please. But I guess I would expect a list like this to be results oriented.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I would argue he's never been given the chance given to others. He's always shown that when he makes contact the ball usually travels a long way. IMO he HAS earned playing time that for other reasons hasn't been given to him.

Other than 2015, his OPS+ for his career is over 115. Some seem to be forgiving the sophomore slump by Sano. Some reason why Vargas wasn't allowed that same consideration?

He is an extremely powerful, extremely dangerous hitter. I'm not saying he should be the second ranked hitter. But do I believe he should be ranked ahead of a catcher straddling the Mendoza line and a reliever who's allowing a lot of hits and a lot of extra base hits? Yes.

 

Players earn chances, nothing is given to you in life. Unless you're Donald Trump. Hey-oh!

 

Vargas has earned PT this year but this is the first year that's been true. He has regularly struggled when given opportunities which is why he's on the edge of 27 and looking at his first full campaign. That said, this year he has earned the opportunity with his hot September 2016. He would have made the team out of spring training except for injury and made it back up relatively quickly. There's a clear spot for him in the Twins lineup, especially with Rosario struggling a bit. It'll be on him to prove he deserves PT.

 

That said, your defense of him is a bit suspect. Excusing 2015 removes 27% of his career at bats and drops our data to 3/4 of a season - we're getting closer to small sample size there. I also think it's unfair to compare it to Sano - Vargas isn't the prospect Sano is, Vargas didn't have the rookie campaign Sano had, Vargas didn't tear up the minors like Sano did and Vargas hasn't done anything close to what Sano has done so far in his next campaign. To continue our theme, Sano earned his forgiveness while Vargas is just starting to.

 

I think you go a little far with the extremelys - after all, even after removing the worst 27% of his at bats, Vargas's OPS+ is 115. For context, that's lower than Mauer's OPS for his entire big contract (119), including the four down years post-concussion. Vargas is a good hitter who is streaky and has not put it together yet (though I'll say I've been impressed not by power but by how willing he is to go the other way with balls like on Wednesday when they shifted him. That's a complete player move, not a Mark Reynolds three-true-outcomes move).  If we can take out those extremelys, we're closer to Agreement-town. 

 

As far as the ranking, that depends what you value. You seem to place value on power. I think the OP would say that Castro's defense is quite a bit more rare and valuable to the Twins than a power hitter who doesn't do much else and has only done it for 74 at bats. Vargas would be easier to replace than Castro basically. And tt's not like power is useless to the OP - Sano is #1 and much of his value comes from his power. But Castro deserves some credit for 3/5 of the staff far exceeding expectations.

 

I'm unaware of what reliever you're not liking. If its Pressley, I concur. He's been great the last four innings but he was garbage before that. I don't advocate him being sent down to AAA (though we heard a lot of that a week ago on TD!) but I think that ranking is a little high for a reliever with more potential than production. I could see him being a big riser in a month (Vargas fits that profile too BTW) but I'd have had him down around Vargas. 

[ThejacKmp]

This falls squarely in the "So what" category but Will should be ahead of Haley. Haley has actively destroyed games, Wilk has not. Yet. Wilk is way more likely to have a positive effect on the Twins than Haley, who is a Rule 25 guy in way over his head.

[yarnivek1972]

For the second time, not EQUATING Sano and Vargas, calling them PARALLEL. A good rookie partial season, followed by a down sophomore season followed by a season that was better than the rookie season.

 

What has Rosario done to earn chances this year? He had a solid rookie season, a sophomore slump and now is even worse than last year. Yet his name has been in the lineup almost everyday.

 

I wouldn't say I am excusing or dismissing Vargas' 2015. I'm simply calling that his sophomore slump year. His other seasons have been good. 2016 was better than 2014 and so far 2017 has been pretty close to 2016. That's good isn't it? Isn't that all he can do to earn playing time? You can call this Mauer bashing if you want, but the reason Mauer gets playing time ahead of Vargas has less to do with on the field performance and more with contract status. As I have mentioned, Mauer's OPS since Vargas came into the league is lower than Vargas'. They are theoretically competing for playing time. But the guy who has the better numbers is getting far less. So, tell me how that is "earning" playing time.

[Thrylos]

 

If you think Vargas and Dozier have been roughly equal this year, I don't particularly trust your analysis. 

 

Dozier has been hitting better recently (.911 OPS the last 4 weeks), but he still is .105/.200/.158 with men on (65 PA) and .337/.427/.584 with bases empty (117 PA) for the season.  So a lot of his hitting is not doing the damage he could do.  I am trying to find league wide LOB for hitters, I suspect that he will be leading the league in that, or close to it...

 

Vargas is the opposite.  He is hitting .344/.333/.656 with men on and .214/.267/.429 with bases empty.  

 

Is Vargas a better overall hitter than Dozier?  Not really.  But Dozier is not as good situational hitter as Vargas is...  That's what the data shows. 

 

Who of the two would I want at the plate with the game down one, bases loaded and 2 outs? Data says it better be Vargas, esp. with a RHP...

 

Thus the perception why Vargas might be better than Dozier.  But, Dozier is over-rated

[diehardtwinsfan]

Gibson is at 25... that seems high. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

It seems to me one can advocate for Vargas playing time without making any comparisons to Sano.

 

Vargas has made his own bed, though. He put up decent numbers overall in 2014 but posted an OPS of only .676 from August 23rd onward (141 PAs so not a miniscule sample size).

 

In 2015, he was pretty bad overall, posting just a .626 OPS in 184 PAs.

 

Once again, he faded at the end of 2016, posting a .670 OPS in September.

 

My biggest problem with how the team has handled Vargas is that he seems to sit in the minors until the All-Star break. That has changed this season and because the Twins don't have any really good every day DH options, it makes all the sense in the world to see what you have in Vargas and then make the appropriate decision in the offseason. If Vargas becomes an embarrassment this season to the point you can't justify him being on the 25-man roster, there's always Park.

 

 

[WLFINN]

 

What has Rosario done to earn chances this year? He had a solid rookie season, a sophomore slump and now is even worse than last year. Yet his name has been in the lineup almost everyday.

Played better in the outfield than Robbie Grossman?

 

[Vanimal46]

 

Gibson is at 25... that seems high. 

 

I think he should be just below TC Bear on the Power Rankings list.... 

[ahart10]

I'm just happy that DanSan has no place on this list

[yarnivek1972]

 

It seems to me one can advocate for Vargas playing time without making any comparisons to Sano.

 

Vargas has made his own bed, though. He put up decent numbers overall in 2014 but posted an OPS of only .676 from August 23rd onward (141 PAs so not a miniscule sample size).

 

In 2015, he was pretty bad overall, posting just a .626 OPS in 184 PAs.

 

Once again, he faded at the end of 2016, posting a .670 OPS in September.

 

My biggest problem with how the team has handled Vargas is that he seems to sit in the minors until the All-Star break. That has changed this season and because the Twins don't have any really good every day DH options, it makes all the sense in the world to see what you have in Vargas and then make the appropriate decision in the offseason. If Vargas becomes an embarrassment this season to the point you can't justify him being on the 25-man roster, there's always Park.

 

 

This being my point exactly.  And I'm not trying to "compare" Vargas to Sano.  Sano is at All Star/MVP level.  Vargas is at guy-who-should-be-playing-everyday level.

[Thrylos]

 

I'm just happy that DanSan has no place on this list

 

He picked up where he left.  Hitting .095/.136/.190 with the Braves

[Brandon Warne]

 

This being my point exactly.  And I'm not trying to "compare" Vargas to Sano.  Sano is at All Star/MVP level.  Vargas is at guy-who-should-be-playing-everyday level.

 

You said "why isn't Vargas getting the same chance to bounce back from a sophomore slump?" The obvious reason is because he doesn't have the ceiling Sano does. He also happens to be much older than Sano, plays a far less important defensive position and didn't have the same rookie track record.