How long can two players carry a team?

[Doomtints]

The Twins are doing well thanks to two players playing at MVP levels and the rest of the team being close to average. But how long can this last? Are we shaking the WAR model to the core?

 

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[Tibs]

Miguel Sano is a large man so probably 162 games.

[Doomtints]

Santiago is, so far, fulfilling his role as a good #2.

 

Kintzler is, so far, fulfilling is role as a good closer.

 

Breslow and Duffey are doing a great job in the pen, but there are more arms in the pen who are not good enough.

 

On the offensive side, everyone is within striking distance of mediocre apart from Buxton. A couple are better than average, most are a bit worse.

 

It has been written that with a good #1 and #2 pitcher, a team can be competitive as long as the rest of the team is competent. If this lasts, I think we are proving this to be true. But if true, this means WAR is a red herring and it's not about incremental contributions at each position, it's instead about a couple of top contributors in key roles.

 

[AZTwin]

Brian Dozier will go on a streak. I have to think Buxton bat the rest of the way could be good for .230 at the least which is improvement. Pitching scares me but if Berrios can be decent and Santana can be a sub 4.0 ERA pitcher the rest of the way I like our chances. I wonder if we have any wildcard players in the minors that could make a surprise impact. Lamonte Wade? Would be nice to plug him in that 2 hole if he is up for the challenge. Can nick burdi make his way into our pen?

[Doomtints]

The other point would be if the Twins keep it up, the narrative of 2015 being an outlier season is false. 2016 was the outlier season.

[Riverbrian]

Sano will slump at some point while others take his place by un-slumping. 

 

 

[howieramone2]

 

The other point would be if the Twins keep it up, the narrative of 2015 being an outlier season is false. 2016 was the outlier season.

Bingo!

[Vanimal46]

I think Sano can carry the offense all season long.... Sure, he'll have a couple of weeks where he slumps, and hopefully Dozier picks up the slack at that time. For the most part, this offense will be carried by Sano's power. 

Erv probably won't be this good all season long, but man, I'd sure love to see it through July and see if they could get a king's ransom for him. 

 

I'm most skeptical of Kintzler... They've been riding his coattails pretty hard over the first month and a half. Pitching him 3 consecutive days two different times already. I know he's been effective, but they're taking a risk using him this much early on without a good backup plan in case if he breaks down. 

[Mike Sixel]

Not having huge gaping holes of negative WAR is actually how the A's have stayed mostly above .500, even while not having many great (any?) players.

 

So, if they can keep from having any bad players getting a lot of playing time, and have 2-3 very good to great players, they can compete. That's a model for regular season success. The issue the last few years was too many black holes.

[gunnarthor]

While Sano and Santana are the two best players, I'm not sure we have 'bad' players right now.  The rotation has question marks, for sure, but Kepler, Polanco, Rosario, Mauer are solid and might be better than solid.  I think that's key. Look at the 2002 Twins, they had a few guys who were clearly stars but they also had a bunch of players who weren't bad. 

[Thrylos]

If you did the same exercise with the 2003 World Champion Red Sox team, it will look like only 2 players carried that team (Ramirez & Schilling.)  Which of course was not true, since David Ortiz and Pedro Martinez had almost identical, but just lesser numbers than them, all around.

 

Sano's season is vintage Barry Bonds, but there are 5 players with OPS plus above league average. Pitching is a different story, that's why this team will still need some work to content, including the possibility of Berrios stepping in as a good number two in the rotation, and 2-3 of the young arms in  AA and AAA in the back end of the bullpen.

 

But this methodology is not a good way to draw conclusions (thus the 2003 Boston reference)

[drjim]

 

While Sano and Santana are the two best players, I'm not sure we have 'bad' players right now.  The rotation has question marks, for sure, but Kepler, Polanco, Rosario, Mauer are solid and might be better than solid.  I think that's key. Look at the 2002 Twins, they had a few guys who were clearly stars but they also had a bunch of players who weren't bad. 

 

I think it is safe to say the back of the rotation and half the bullpen can qualify as bad.

 

But the everyday lineup does not have a whole lot of bad, which does help game in, game out.

[Taildragger8791]

 

The other point would be if the Twins keep it up, the narrative of 2015 being an outlier season is false. 2016 was the outlier season.

 

I don't see how you can say that wasn't a fluke year. The Twins stunk for four years before 2015 and the year after. Most of the players responsible for 2015 wins aren't contributing to wins in 2017, especially since most of them aren't even on the team anymore. That's even more true when you focus in on the 20-win month of May which buoyed that whole season.

 

On the pitching side, only Hughes, Duffey, Santana, and Pressly have survived and still contribute. Only Hughes and Pressly had any impact on that early winning, and Hughes has gotten by on good fortune more than ability lately. Santana missed half that season then struggled when he returned. Duffey didn't come up til late in the year and he's in a totally different role now. So the pitching looks almost completely different now than it did then.

 

On the hitting side we had a lot of playing time from Plouffe, Hunter, Hicks, Suzuki, Nunez, Dan San, Shane Robinson, Chris Hermann, with a sprinkle of Arcia and Jordan Schafer for seasoning. Other than Rosario, the young guys in our lineup now didn't contribute until mid-year if at all. The biggest carryovers are Dozier and Mauer, neither of which are impressing yet this year.

[Vanimal46]

 

I think it is safe to say the back of the rotation and half the bullpen can qualify as bad.

 

But the everyday lineup does not have a whole lot of bad, which does help game in, game out.

 

Very true. If Berrios' last outing is a trend and not a fluke, they filled a massive hole already... Maybe it could be the year to find SP talent through trade and fill out the rest of the rotation. 

[gunnarthor]

 

I think it is safe to say the back of the rotation and half the bullpen can qualify as bad.

 

But the everyday lineup does not have a whole lot of bad, which does help game in, game out.

Yep, that's true. I do think Burdi and a few other minor league arms can be a big help for us this season though.  The rotation? Well, if Berrios is a real, then we have three ML quality arms with him and Santana and Santiago.  Not sure if Hughes, Mejia, Gibson, etc can hold down the back end although I have more faith in Mejia than the other two, for some reason.

[drjim]

 

Yep, that's true. I do think Burdi and a few other minor league arms can be a big help for us this season though.  The rotation? Well, if Berrios is a real, then we have three ML quality arms with him and Santana and Santiago.  Not sure if Hughes, Mejia, Gibson, etc can hold down the back end although I have more faith in Mejia than the other two, for some reason.

 

I agree there is a decent shot the young bullpen arms can come up and contribute in the second half.

 

Not sure I agree on Mejia going forward. Hughes is not fully healthy, but does seem to know what he is doing, and will usually give a competitive start, he will got rocked on occasion though. I still have most hope for Gibson for some reason.

[Doomtints]

 

I don't see how you can say that wasn't a fluke year. 

 

You may not like the assertion but nevertheless history will be written that way.

 

Of course, it's a big assumption at this point that the Twins will not fall apart before the end of the season. They are feasting on a couple of very bad teams and it's a long season.

[Taildragger8791]

 

You may not like the assertion but nevertheless history will be written that way.

 

Of course, it's a big assumption at this point that the Twins will not fall apart before the end of the season. They are feasting on a couple of very bad teams and it's a long season.

 

That doesn't mean the written history will be accurate.

 

A collection of guys that were barely hanging on in the league along with some very average vets came together with remarkable timing to put together what from the 10,000 foot view appears to be a mildly competent season.  If it wasn't a fluke then those same guys would have carried that forward, or at least gone on to success elsewhere. Instead they're mostly out of the majors or filling out back ends of rosters around the league.

 

I'm still not sure what to believe about this year's team. The hitting is legit and should only get better, although I'm not counting 100% on things like Dozier going on another stratospheric hot streak. Buxton will improve enough to not be a total liability, I think. Kepler and Polanco seem like they'll continue to get better as well. If Vargas can wrest the cleanup spot from Mauer I think we'll be in good shape rest of the year there.

 

Pitching...I'm clueless. Bullpen turnover has to go well, which is reasonably possible if we can keep our prospects healthy for a change. Finding 2-3 more reliable starters mid-season is going to be a tall order though. Berrios fills a huge hole if he holds on. If the wheels don't come off Santiago that's a heck of a start to the rotation and enough to be competitive. But the 4-5 spots can't be black holes. Maybe Duffey can transition back and keep the job?

[Doomtints]

 

That doesn't mean the written history will be accurate.

 

Feel free to argue that the rest of your life if you want to. Your best hope to avoid that is that the Twins collapse.

[dbminn]

I'm not so worried about the Twins position players. Dozier will have a streak or two and I believe at least one of the youngsters other than Sano will take a step up. One point of optimism is the defense. All of the starting position players are at least competently fielding the ball. That hides a lot of pitching deficiencies.

 

The back end of the rotation needs help but the biggest problem is the bullpen. Let's hope the prospects can finally stay healthy. IMO, there are four relievers to choose from as the year goes on: Burdi, Melotakis, Curtiss and Bard. Gotta hope two of these guys will be ready come July 1.

 

Regardless of the results in 2017, the team looks like it's shaping up to be very competitive in 2018. Mejia, Berrios and the RP prospects will have more experience under their belts. Falvey will be able to sell FA pitchers on the team's defense. And maybe Lamonte Wade steals the LF position next year?

 

 

[Ben Noble]

Two players can carry a team all season long. It just might not be the same two players over the course of the season; streaks and slumps are part of the game. A couple more solid starts from Berrios will go a long ways towards my optimism that the Twins have the pitching talent to keep this thing going when Santana inevitably cools off.