Berrios and the Front Office

[DaveW]

 

 

 

Under the old front office, if Jack Goin went to Ryan with data points on a player, how much weight was given to that information? And do you believe Falvey gives that information the same weight?

 

.

Ah yes, let's blame it all on the incompetent old regime.
Scapegoating can be fun.

I recall hearing the exact same thing when Smith was let go and Ryan came back "Smith ruined everything!!1!"

Except we look at the roster now, and realize that Smith is the biggest reason why the Twins actually have a shot this year: Sano, Kepler, Polanco to name a few.

"Gardy was the problem! Now that he is gone, surely Molly will do things so much better!"
-24 months later and the Twins have the worst season in franchise history.

Good lord.
 

[howieramone2]

 

What's interesting to me is not addressing pitching significantly in the offseason and still not calling up Berrios when he is (seemingly) pitching well in AAA and there is a clear need in the majors seem to be contradictory actions.

 

I understand doing little in the offseason if you want to use the season to evaluate organizational talent. But rolling with a retread for a long term opening doesn't make much sense.

I agree they may be using this season to evaluate the organizational talent. We will know more by what they do at the trade deadline. I can't see the problem with giving Tepesch one start. Starting pitching depth is not a strength, let's see what we have. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Luis Severino is an interesting comparable.  Similar age/profile/ranking.

 

The Yankees called him up in 2015 when the Twins kept Berrios down, and he did pretty well even though he wasn't a finished product.  (And the Yankees beat out the Twins for the wild card game.)

 

Then Severino proceeded to pitch just about as bad as Berrios as a starter in MLB last year (8.50 ERA, 5.56 FIP).  They worked with him in the MLB bullpen last year where he did much better, then returned him to the MLB rotation this spring and he's off to a good start.

 

I know every player is different, but I sure like whatever they were doing over just letting a guy dominate AAA indefinitely.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Ah yes, let's blame it all on the incompetent old regime.
Scapegoating can be fun.

I recall hearing the exact same thing when Smith was let go and Ryan came back "Smith ruined everything!!1!"

Except we look at the roster now, and realize that Smith is the biggest reason why the Twins actually have a shot this year: Sano, Kepler, Polanco to name a few.

"Gardy was the problem! Now that he is gone, surely Molly will do things so much better!"
-24 months later and the Twins have the worst season in franchise history.

Good lord.
 

I'm not scapegoating the old regime. They didn't do a good job with lots of players. They also collected a solid nucleus from which to build. Some of that was Smith, some of it was Ryan.

 

As for Smith, I always tried to be fair to the guy. I commended his signings and blasted his trades. I loved his 2009 season and leadup to 2010 but, unfortunately, there wasn't much to like after that point.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Luis Severino is an interesting comparable.  Similar age/profile/ranking.

 

The Yankees called him up in 2015 when the Twins kept Berrios down, and he did pretty well even though he wasn't a finished product.  (And the Yankees beat out the Twins for the wild card game.)

 

Then Severino proceeded to pitch just about as bad as Berrios as a starter in MLB last year (8.50 ERA, 5.56 FIP).  They worked with him in the MLB bullpen last year where he did much better, then returned him to the MLB rotation this spring and he's off to a good start.

 

I know every player is different, but I sure like whatever they were doing over just letting a guy dominate AAA indefinitely.

 

Cardinals do something similar. But, hey, they stink at developing SP...even with later draft picks where it is impossible to find good players.

[Joe A. Preusser]

Falvey had an entire off-season to address the pitching. Instead he did nothing.

They did take one SP with upside (Duffey) and put him in the pen, which was perplexing to say the least.

 

Color me unimpressed with Falvey's pitching strategy.

Duffy was not a good SP last year. Maybe moving him to the pen was what helped restore his fastball command? Because to be successful Duffy has to really command his fastball, not just control it. But why give credit when it's easier to grouse, right?

[TheLeviathan]

I get showing the FO some benefit of the doubt approach.  But 5 months ago I could also argue Falvey came from an organization that clearly understood the benefit of a good bullpen and have used that logic to defend my thinking that they'd be aggressive fixing that.  Well, they weren't.

 

These guys aren't in Cleveland and Texas any more, we sort of have to judge what is going on here and now.

 

And for the very same reason I want to see Buxton stay through his struggles, I'm willing to endure struggles from Berrios as well.  At some point, you have to learn how to do it in the big leagues because it's a different animal.   It feels to me like we're trying to make someone a better math student by having them do 1+1 a few hundred times.  That's not how you refine a new, more challenging skill.

 

And at some point, doing that not only fails to advance your abilities, it might stunt them altogether.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Duffy was not a good SP last year. Maybe moving him to the pen was what helped restore his fastball command? Because to be successful Duffy has to really command his fastball, not just control it. But why give credit when it's easier to grouse, right?

 

They've also talked a lot this spring about how they still see Duffey as a starter.  But despite solid progress in his pitches, he's being passed over for Tepesch too.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Luis Severino is an interesting comparable.  Similar age/profile/ranking.

 

The Yankees called him up in 2015 when the Twins kept Berrios down, and he did pretty well even though he wasn't a finished product.  (And the Yankees beat out the Twins for the wild card game.)

 

Then Severino proceeded to pitch just about as bad as Berrios as a starter in MLB last year (8.50 ERA, 5.56 FIP).  They worked with him in the MLB bullpen last year where he did much better, then returned him to the MLB rotation this spring and he's off to a good start.

 

I know every player is different, but I sure like whatever they were doing over just letting a guy dominate AAA indefinitely.

That's a valid point and it's hard to argue the results of the Cardinals.

 

On the other hand, are the Twins doing this with Duffey right now? Yet we hear people complain he isn't in the rotation. The guy has all of 13.1 IP in the bullpen this season. If the Twins are fixing something, it's probably not going to happen that quickly.

 

As for Berrios, if you think the guy is just one small tweak from being an MLB starter, do you put him in the pen and worry about stretching him out later or do you keep him in the minors for a few more weeks and move him directly into the MLB rotation?

 

I'm not sure there's a right answer there. Both methods could show success. Putting him in the MLB pen might help him improve more quickly but means that guy would end up in the MLB rotation at a later date (adjust to pen, pitch in MLB, stretch back out takes quite some time). Keeping him in the minors for a few more weeks may mean he improves a bit more slowly but ends up in the MLB rotation more quickly.

[Joe A. Preusser]

For me, these are the pertinent facts:

 

Berrios is dominating AAA.

His coaches (you know, the ones who make these evaluations for a living) believe he needs more time to be set up for success in MLB.

The timeline right now for this 22 year old KID is nowhere near critical mass.

 

Therefore I will not let myself get stressed out about this, regardless of how impatient I am for JO to replace someone (Gibson) in the rotation. I will trust until that trust has been broken, and the new FO leaders have done nothing but engender trust so far.

[Thrylos]

Bottom line:  

 

The Twins are leading the division.  Unless they fall out of contention, I'd give the FO the benefit of the doubt.

 

Re: Berrios:  Check his peripherals out:  He is doing worse in AAA than he did last season, and we all know how he did in the majors last season.  Also, I suspect that the reason he is in AAA is not his numbers.  He has to work on something(s) in particular and unless the Twins are satisfied with that, he will still be there.  Also, arguably, Berrios' numbers are not the best of a Twins' AAA starter right now.  Hurlbut's (and Tepesch's) are pretty much identical, and Mejia's are better.

[DaveW]

 

Luis Severino is an interesting comparable.  Similar age/profile/ranking.

 

The Yankees called him up in 2015 when the Twins kept Berrios down, and he did pretty well even though he wasn't a finished product.  (And the Yankees beat out the Twins for the wild card game.)

 

Then Severino proceeded to pitch just about as bad as Berrios as a starter in MLB last year (8.50 ERA, 5.56 FIP).  They worked with him in the MLB bullpen last year where he did much better, then returned him to the MLB rotation this spring and he's off to a good start.

 

I know every player is different, but I sure like whatever they were doing over just letting a guy dominate AAA indefinitely.

It's almost like the Yankees have a good approach to building a team (and rebuilding a team) and the Twins have a poor approach.

[DaveW]

 

For me, these are the pertinent facts:

Berrios is dominating AAA.
His coaches (you know, the ones who make these evaluations for a living) believe he needs more time to be set up for success in MLB.
 

The same coaches, who haven't produced anything more than a #5 from the org in damn near 15 years (Baker and Radke)

[Mike Sixel]

 

It's almost like the Yankees have a good approach to building a team (and rebuilding a team) and the Twins have a poor approach.

 

The Twins never were rebuilding. They were trying very had to be competitive. 

[Joe A. Preusser]

They've also talked a lot this spring about how they still see Duffey as a starter.  But despite solid progress in his pitches, he's being passed over for Tepesch too.

That's not relavent to my point. I think it's quite probable that the move to the pen (temporary or otherwise) is responsible for helping Duffman regain his success. Can we not give someone credit for making that evaluation? Or is everyone locked into the old "if it's good it's luck, if it's bad it's their fault" way of thinking?

[Joe A. Preusser]

The same coaches, who haven't produced anything more than a #5 from the org in damn near 15 years (Baker and Radke)

Not sure what this means, all the Twins coaches...and the GM...and the PBO...haven't been here for 15 years. Goddammit Falvey, why could you make something out of Adam Johnson?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

On the other hand, are the Twins doing this with Duffey right now? Yet we hear people complain he isn't in the rotation. The guy has all of 13.1 IP in the bullpen this season. If the Twins are fixing something, it's probably not going to happen that quickly.

I had no problem with Duffey to the pen to work on things.  But if after a month of successfully working on those things, he wasn't going to be considered for a long-term rotation opening, and Berrios was likewise not going to be considered after another dominant month starting at AAA, we needed a different plan.

 

At this point, the plan for a full-time rotation spot appears to be "let Mejia get his feet wet and then roster Nick Tepesch."

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

As for Berrios, if you think the guy is just one small tweak from being an MLB starter, do you put him in the pen and worry about stretching him out later or do you keep him in the minors for a few more weeks and move him directly into the MLB rotation?

The idea that Berrios might be "one small tweak" from being an MLB starter, and that he can discover/refine this "one small tweak" with a couple more weeks dominating AAA, is exactly the problem here.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I had no problem with Duffey to the pen to work on things.  But if after a month of successfully working on those things, he wasn't going to be considered for a long-term rotation opening, and Berrios was likewise not going to be considered after another dominant month starting at AAA, we needed a different plan.

 

At this point, the plan for a full-time rotation spot appears to be "let Mejia get his feet wet and then roster Nick Tepesch."

I don't get the Mejia thing. I get the Tepesch thing even less.

 

But if Duffey is going to return to the rotation, it's going to take a little time. He's not a spot starter at this point. I suspect the Twins will want to go more long-term with him and give him a week or two notice to adjust back to starting.

 

If you put a guy in the bullpen and tell him to go one inning at a time, he's not going to be ready at a moment's notice to start a baseball game. Before last night, Duffey hadn't pitched more than five outs since April 17th.

 

It's my opinion the Twins should have called up Berrios or Mejia for Tepesch's start. But if Tepesch only makes a couple of starts (preferably just one), it's not the end of the world provided the front office has a longer term plan that needs a bit more time to play out. At this point, I hope they have a plan for all three of Mejia, Berrios, and Duffey and I don't really care which one gets the call first, I only hope it happens soon.

[TheLeviathan]

 

The idea that Berrios might be "one small tweak" from being an MLB starter, and that he can discover/refine this "one small tweak" with a couple more weeks dominating AAA, is exactly the problem here.

 

I would add that he can only (seemingly) discover/refine that in AAA.

 

That's the part that gets me.  That it's somehow impossible for this to happen with the big league coaching staff.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The idea that Berrios might be "one small tweak" from being an MLB starter, and that he can discover/refine this "one small tweak" with a couple more weeks dominating AAA, is exactly the problem here.

Is it, though? If Berrios has already shown the adjustment, the front office may want to see it a few more times before he gets the call.

 

And that's not an entirely unreasonable position to hold when you're talking about the best pitching prospect in the organization, a guy whose future and the future of the organization go almost hand-in-hand.

[Mike Sixel]

Is the best pitching coach in AA, AAA, or the majors? Should not Berrios, at this point, be working with the best pitching coach?

[Taildragger8791]

 

They've also talked a lot this spring about how they still see Duffey as a starter.  But despite solid progress in his pitches, he's being passed over for Tepesch too.

 

I don't think he was "passed over" so much as they think he fills a critical role in the bullpen right now, which is also serving to help set him up for success. We'd be castigating the team if he were getting yo-yo'd back and forth between roles just as much as they're apparently getting castigated for sticking to a defined role for more than a month at a time.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

We'd be castigating the team if he were getting yo-yo'd back and forth between roles just as much as they're apparently getting castigated for sticking to a defined role for more than a month at a time.

Indeed. I hated what the front office did to Buxton through 2015 and 2016. They didn't let him settle into a single level or role for more than a few weeks at a time. It wouldn't really be fair for me to criticize the new front office for not doing the same thing to Duffey.

 

Ultimately, I'd like to see Duffey get another shot at the rotation but I can't complain too much if the front office feels five weeks is not enough time to move him back into the rotation.

[Taildragger8791]

 

And for the very same reason I want to see Buxton stay through his struggles, I'm willing to endure struggles from Berrios as well.  At some point, you have to learn how to do it in the big leagues because it's a different animal.   It feels to me like we're trying to make someone a better math student by having them do 1+1 a few hundred times.  That's not how you refine a new, more challenging skill.

 

How patient would everyone be if his struggles are as bad as last year? Comparable to Buxton's ineptitude for months at a time? Would you be willing to take this first-place Twins team and just forfeit 20% or more of their games for the next month or two? At what point would even you throw up your hands and say send him down until he straightens out his flaws?

 

It wreaks havoc on a team and a bullpen when a starter is getting knocked out in the 4th inning every time out, and those effects are felt for the next 2-3 games as well. I'd be fine if Berrios were called up now, but I'd also expect to see a drastic improvement from last year before I'd extend his stay beyond 3-4 games.

[Joe A. Preusser]

I don't think he was "passed over" so much as they think he fills a critical role in the bullpen right now, which is also serving to help set him up for success. We'd be castigating the team if he were getting yo-yo'd back and forth between roles just as much as they're apparently getting castigated for sticking to a defined role for more than a month at a time.

Welcome to Twins Daily. No matter what our front office, players, coaches do SOMEONE here will find fault in it. It's kind of beautiful in a depressing way.

[TheLeviathan]

 

How patient would everyone be if his struggles are as bad as last year? \

 

I can't speak for everyone else, but you won't here me complain.  I acknowledge and expect struggles, so I won't overreact when it happens.  But that's just me, I understand the concern more generally.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Welcome to Twins Daily. No matter what our front office, players, coaches do SOMEONE here will find fault in it. It's kind of beautiful in a depressing way.

 

And there will be some that say that no matter what, the FO is right.

 

When over 1000 people are on this board, I'd expect there not to be universal agreement on much of anything. I would find it rather boring if we did.

[howieramone2]

 

I get showing the FO some benefit of the doubt approach.  But 5 months ago I could also argue Falvey came from an organization that clearly understood the benefit of a good bullpen and have used that logic to defend my thinking that they'd be aggressive fixing that.  Well, they weren't.

 

These guys aren't in Cleveland and Texas any more, we sort of have to judge what is going on here and now.

 

And for the very same reason I want to see Buxton stay through his struggles, I'm willing to endure struggles from Berrios as well.  At some point, you have to learn how to do it in the big leagues because it's a different animal.   It feels to me like we're trying to make someone a better math student by having them do 1+1 a few hundred times.  That's not how you refine a new, more challenging skill.

 

And at some point, doing that not only fails to advance your abilities, it might stunt them altogether.

Actually, the bullpen is much improved this year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I can't speak for everyone else, but you won't here me complain.  I acknowledge and expect struggles, so I won't overreact when it happens.  But that's just me, I understand the concern more generally.

And if the Twins were 10-15 or worse, I'd be like "WTF, just get him up here and see what happens". Kind of like what I wanted to see earlier in the 2016 season.

 

But even with the Twins being 14-11, if Tepesch makes more than three starts, there's a high likelihood I will end up vomiting all over my computer monitor before the end of May.