Berrios staying in the minors?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

He was probably right about Tepesch over Tonkin and Haley.

Heh, I find myself agreeing with you there.

[PseudoSABR]

 

So what if he continues to dominate the stat sheet in AAA but never improves his fastball command beyond what it is now?
Are you honestly going to just let him finish out his tenure in the minors and never going to give him another shot?
What if 35 starts become 150 starts with dominant stats?

I realize that's unlikely, but I'm just wondering if there does indeed come a point at which you'd call him you even if the fastball command doesn't improve but he continues to crush AAA?

At some point I think you say that asking for perfection at AAA is being too conservative. At some point I think you say he's a highly regarded prospects who has dominated AAA, let's go ahead and let him learn the rest from the MLB coaches and catchers.

It's not a questions of if he'll get his shot again, it's a question of when; as I said in the following post to the one you quoted, it seems as if the coaches are looking for execution of a specific plan.  I bet Falvey has all kinds of contingencies, benchmarks, and inevitabilities built into Berrios' plan to success in the majors. 

 

As long as the Twins are competitive, it will be somewhat prohibitive from letting Berrios learn on the job--that is until the other options have failed.  Gibson might only get a few more chances, Tepesch isn't the answer, and is likely only keeping the spot warm for Berrios or Meija.

[drjim]

Heh, I find myself agreeing with you there.

I imagine we both agree that Berrios should be making his next start in the bigs too.

 

I'm admittedly playing a little front ofdice advocate here even though I don't agree with the decision. I do find the thought process of the new front office worthy of investigation.

[PseudoSABR]

 

I liked your comments up to the end. It seems like all we've heard over the past several years is that the player is responsible for not developing better. Players changed and management stayed, and losses accumulated, yet the message remained that the player needs to take more ownership for figuring out how to succeed.

Well, at least at TD since it's inception, the hand-wringing over not promoting a pitching prospect has been squarely put at the feet of the Front Office--that's background to my assertion.   With that said, I think box-score success at AAA can really get into a young players head and derail their development. In the end, who cares about getting AAA hitters out, work on the aspects of your game that will lead to major league success, even at the expense of getting those AAA hitters out.  

[drjim]

If they are still not getting whatever they want out of Berrios at AAA, after this many starts/ innings, isn't that an argument for a change, and against the status quo?

 

Maybe throwing to Castro/Gimenez? Maybe a stint in the MLB bullpen?

The only grace I would give is that it is a new front office with a new set of ideas and presumably a new plan of development.

 

In some ways the innings prior to this year might not matter a whole lot.

[PseudoSABR]

 

If 200 innings with these coaches in AAA haven't been enough....how much more time do we do it?

 

We keep the kid down indefinitely?

 

When does that justification run out and we either look at incompetent coaching or scrap the plan?

I think some people forget that we had regime change over the winter, and I think the pitching philosophy generally has changed, and the specific plan for Berrios has changed too.   Again, Berrios was really, really bad after most those innings--the plan I'm sure has changed since then.

 

The measuring stick of scrapping the plan should start at spring training (which was compromised because the WBC), so whatever plan Falvey has for Berrios has been somewhat truncated, and certainly isn't the total of the 200 innings at AAA.

[DaveW]

Well, at least at TD since it's inception, the hand-wringing over not promoting a pitching prospect has been squarely put at the feet of the Front Office--that's background to my assertion.   With that said, I think box-score success at AAA can really get into a young players head and derail their development. In the end, who cares about getting AAA hitters out, work on the aspects of your game that will lead to major league success, even at the expense of getting those AAA hitters out.  

Excellent point, if there is one thing we have learned since the inception of TwinsDaily (and all of those zero playoff appearances) it's that the Twins have always, always, without exception known what they are doing with pitching across the board: Young, Old, etc doesn't matter. Only the 90's Braves can possibly be compared to these teams in term of success with starting pitching and pitching as a whole..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[DaveW]

 

, and I think the pitching philosophy generally has changed, 

 

 

/looks at Gibson being tossed out every 5th day like clockwork

//picks up rochester newspaper, checks out Berrios line

[source needed]

[Shaitan]

 

Why not? I thought the best players play....

In the NFL, sure. In a sport with minor leagues and a 162 game season there are a lot more variables.

[Guest]

Pitchers on the Twins who have come through the system are limited to Gibson, Tonkin, Rogers and Duffey, after years of high draft picks and a supposed draft and develop focus. Career WAR of 8.6. Seems like a strong argument that the minors coaching should be changed.

[DaveW]

 

Pitchers on the Twins who have come through the system are limited to Gibson, Tonkin, Rogers and Duffey, after years of high draft picks and a supposed draft and develop focus. Career WAR of 8.6. Seems like a strong argument that the minors coaching should be changed.

Yup, and what do we have to show for them moving forward:

Gibson- Should be cut
Tonkin- 6th inning type is his ceiling at this point
Rogers- mehhhhhhhhh

Duffey- Has some upside left, should get another shot at starting, but likely will get the Trevor May treatment by this club.

[DocBauer]

I also want to see Berrios, and soon. I see little reason for him not to be brought up and continue to develop and learn at the ML level. For goodness sake, while it was a short stint, we opened the season with Mejia getting an early shot.

 

But this is a new leadership group. Berrios did miss most of ST. We don't get to watch him daily, or have a definitive idea of the things they are looking at to feel he's ready for his next shot. Command, control, slide step, tipping pitches, holding runners on, over exuberance, we just don't know. So I will give some allowance to this new FO for the moment. We're a whole month in to a long season. We honestly haven't needed a 5th starter much yet, and there has to be some hope, finger crossing, even desperation regarding Gibson.

 

I agree it's not if, but when. I suspect when is pretty soon.

[DaveW]

 

Stick to hot-takes and Hicks updates.  This just in: Terry Ryan fired as Twins GM. 

Yeah, I realize that, but the problem is that 95% of the org remains in tact, especially in the minors.

As much as people like to believe (like the Donald) that the GM of an org has unlimited power, the reality is that the Twins problems ran much much much deeper than just TR.

The fact that they continue to bury Berrios in AAA while giving Gibson and others innings proves this (along with having Bad Santana on the roster over Park or Vargas to start the season...)
 

[PseudoSABR]

 

Yeah, I realize that, but the problem is that 95% of the org remains in tact, especially in the minors.

Although the people within an organization are important, far more important is the plan which these people set out to execute.  It was never realistic to expect Falvey to fire everyone, it's not as if the coaches are going rogue and secretly executing Terry Ryan's former wishes.   

 

At the season's end, I expect we'll see lots of people let go, but we'll also see many retained.  

[DaveW]

 

it's not as if the coaches are going rogue and secretly executing Terry Ryan's former wishes.   

 

 

And yet by some weird coincidence Berrios remains buried in AAA, Gibby is pitching every 5th day and Danny Santana is somehow in the majors getting two starts a week.

[PseudoSABR]

 

And yet by some weird coincidence Berrios remains buried in AAA, Gibby is pitching every 5th day and Danny Santana is somehow in the majors getting two starts a week.

You'll still need a 5th starter, Dave.   I think it's foolish to simply cut Gibby, given the organizations lack of depth.   

 

The reality is there just aren't that many good starters in the organization.  The team should do all it can to ensure that pitchers develop appropriately and are ready when they are promoted, as well as retain whatever depth they can.  

[DaveW]

 

You'll still need a 5th starter, Dave.   I think it's foolish to simply cut Gibby, given the organizations lack of depth.   

 

The reality is there just aren't that many good starters in the organization.  The team should do all it can to ensure that pitchers develop appropriately and are ready when they are promoted, as well as retain whatever depth they can.  

Put Gibby into the pen then. I don't care.

Just get BERRIOS INTO THE ROTATION!

[Taildragger8791]

Man, everybody sure seems to think the entire Twins organization is either incompetent or evil for their handling of Berrios and other prospects. I understand the team hasn't earned any equity or benefit of the doubt but this isn't an example I can get behind.

 

Berrios is 22. He's still pretty darn young. An extra month or two to make sure his next call-up to the majors is successful and hopefully his last is a worthwhile and responsible way to handle him. They aren't keeping him down because they think he's trash or don't want to pay him. They aren't going to keep him down indefinitely and then lose him. They just want to make sure he doesn't hit a brick wall at 100 mph again like he did last year. Yes, I want to see Berrios up here soon too. But I trust that the front office is taking the long view and want to be convinced he's set up for success before his next promotion. Meanwhile, let the current rotation sort itself out so we can finally clean house on marginal pitchers.

 

An overmatched starting pitcher is far more damaging to a team than an overmatched 9th hitter that brings excellent defense. That is why Buxton gets to figure it out in the majors despite being the WORST hitter in baseball for long stretches, whereas no team is going to give that kind of leash to the worst starting pitcher in baseball.

 

Also, please spare the argument that Gibson pitching over Berrios means they think he's better and are too dumb to see the reality. I've been as done with Gibson as anybody but even I can understand their desire to exhaust every possibility with salvaging him while he's still cheap. He'll be gone soon enough at this rate.

[PseudoSABR]

 

Just get BERRIOS INTO THE ROTATION!

Can you be specific beyond his AAA stat line?  Are you just ignoring the fact that he dominated AAA all of last year and became the worse pitcher in baseball by a mile? 

 

In 2016: Berrios dominates AAA, gets promoted and fails horribly.

In 2017: Berrios dominates AAA.

 

What's changed? I don't know that anything has, and you don't know either.   But your all-caps hot takes is sure to get a couple of likes. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

I think some people forget that we had regime change over the winter, and I think the pitching philosophy generally has changed, and the specific plan for Berrios has changed too.   Again, Berrios was really, really bad after most those innings--the plan I'm sure has changed since then.

 

The measuring stick of scrapping the plan should start at spring training (which was compromised because the WBC), so whatever plan Falvey has for Berrios has been somewhat truncated, and certainly isn't the total of the 200 innings at AAA.

 

It might help your case if Molitor didn't use the exact same terms to describe what Berrios is working on as he did last year.

[PseudoSABR]

 

It might help your case if Molitor didn't use the exact same terms to describe what Berrios is working on as he did last year.

That the problem is the same--fastball command--makes sense.  My point is that the solution/plan likely differs from that of the old regime. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

That the problem is the same--fastball command--makes sense.  My point is that the solution/plan likely differs from that of the old regime. 

 

I guess I'm confused how many different plans of "command it better" there might be.  We don't have any indication they are changing his delivery or anything of that nature.

[Taildragger8791]

 

It might help your case if Molitor didn't use the exact same terms to describe what Berrios is working on as he did last year.

 

Because he still has the same critical flaws to fix.

 

Maybe Berrios just didn't realize how serious they were about it until he faced major league hitters. It's hard to really internalize what someone is telling you about your mistakes until you feel the effects of them. So yeah, he has 200 innings, but only a small percentage of those have come since he's gotten that wakeup call. 

[Taildragger8791]

 

I guess I'm confused how many different plans of "command it better" there might be.  We don't have any indication they are changing his delivery or anything of that nature.

 

They talked pretty specifically this spring about him taking the ball straight back more to help with command and not tipping his pitches so much. I don't think his problem was exclusively command, but that he also tipped his offspeed stuff which allowed hitters to pick what they want to swing at. That forced him to nibble more and live out of the zone because he was getting crushed.

[DaveW]

Can you be specific beyond his AAA stat line? Are you just ignoring the fact that he dominated AAA all of last year and became the worse pitcher in baseball by a mile?

 

In 2016: Berrios dominates AAA, gets promoted and fails horribly.

In 2017: Berrios dominates AAA.

 

What's changed? I don't know that anything has, and you don't know either. But your all-caps hot takes is sure to get a couple of likes.

Judging young rookies (especially pitchers) in their first cup of coffee is beyond short sighted and dumb.

 

Even more confusing is why an org will stick with CF who are clearly not ready (for 2+ seasons) and go out of their way to trade talented or at the very least decent (Revere) CF already on the roster (span, revere, hicks)

 

Yet when it comes to a rotation, the minute a youngster struggles, its back to the minors with you!

 

While giving too many starts to the Blackburns, Hernandez's, Pelfreys, Gibson's, Nolasccos of the world.

 

Does. Not. Compute.

 

Also the Twins clearly don't know how to manage pitching prospects anyways, name me the last Twin player they drafted and turned into a legit SP capable of being more than a #4/#5 for a couple years (that disqualifies gibson and Blackburn fwiw)

[DaveW]

I guess I'm confused how many different plans of "command it better" there might be. We don't have any indication they are changing his delivery or anything of that nature.

Clearly Berrios isn't pitching to contact enough.

 

Probelm solved!

[TheLeviathan]

 

They talked pretty specifically this spring about him taking the ball straight back more to help with command and not tipping his pitches so much. I don't think his problem was exclusively command, but that he also tipped his offspeed stuff which allowed hitters to pick what they want to swing at. That forced him to nibble more and live out of the zone because he was getting crushed.

 

"Don't tip your pitches" doesn't strike me as the same thing "throw your fastball to the right place".  

 

Again, if indeed he has things to work on, just how long do you keep him in AAA?  Indefinitely until he does it?

[PseudoSABR]

 

I guess I'm confused how many different plans of "command it better" there might be.  We don't have any indication they are changing his delivery or anything of that nature.

If your point is that there's just one, well what good would firing coaches or whatever changes you would make do?  

 

I imagine there's far more approaches than you're wiling to entertain here.  

 

The lack of fastball command was evidently a problem throughout the organization, suggesting in the prior regime, well, there wasn't a plan.

[PseudoSABR]

 

Clearly Berrios isn't pitching to contact enough.

Probelm solved!

This joke doesn't even make sense now that TR is gone.  Wouldn't that be the old plan? 

[TheLeviathan]

 

If your point is that there's just one, well what good would firing coaches or whatever changes you would make do?  

 

I imagine there's far more approaches than you're wiling to entertain here.  

 

The lack of fastball command was evidently a problem throughout the organization, suggesting in the prior regime, well, there wasn't a plan.

 

Perhaps, but I'll ask the same question - how long do you have him keep throwing against inferior hitters?  

 

Doesn't, at some point, his success there hinder his ability to progress when he is so dominant?