Article: Phil Hughes as 2017's CC Sabathia

[Doomtints]

Halladay also knew how to throw it down and away when he needed to mix things up. This seems to be a common theme among pitchers who manage to stick around a while.

Edited March 31, 2017 by Doomtints

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Halladay also knew how to throw it down and away. Seems to be a common theme among pitchers who manage to stick around a while.

I wasn't using Halladay as an example of longevity, only in response to the argument that Hughes has a lot of miles on his arm. He really doesn't.

 

Another random example: Ricky Nolasco. Through his age 30 season, he had 2000 professional innings under his belt to Hughes' 1550 innings.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Another example to really illustrate the innings: Kyle Gibson.

 

Gibson broke his arm in college. He later had Tommy John surgery. He's been injured quite a bit in the majors. Gibson is basically the poster boy for not pitching innings.

 

Through his age 28 season, he has just shy of 1000 professional innings.

 

Through Hughes' age 28 season, he had a little over 1300 professional innings. Phil Hughes was pitching MLB games for the Yankees at the same age Gibson was drafted (and Gibson didn't pitch professionally until the following season).

 

Jose Berrios is 22 years old. He has a little over 600 professional innings under his belt. If he pitches just 100 innings a season through his age 28 season, he'll still match Hughes in professional innings pitched.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Brett Anderson can't walk to the mound without hurting himself yet has managed to log 990 professional innings through his age 28 season.

 

This is kinda fun.

[alarp33]

 

Brett Anderson can't walk to the mound without hurting himself yet has managed to log 990 professional innings through his age 28 season.

 

This is kinda fun.

 

What am I missing here - isn't this Hughes age 31 season? Why do we keep looking at through age 28 numbers?

 

Also - Gibson didn't miss time in college with his stress fracture, it was right before the draft

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

What am I missing here - isn't this Hughes age 31 season? Why do we keep looking at through age 28 numbers?

 

Also - Gibson didn't miss time in college with his stress fracture, it was right before the draft

My point is that Hughes hasn't pitched that many innings. There are "injury prone" guys who track not that many innings behind Hughes when adjusted for age.

 

The "too many miles on that horse" arguments don't hold much weight when you look at Hughes' arm mileage.

 

As for Gibson, he broke his arm while pitching in college. I believe it may have been discovered later but there were question marks about his pre-draft college pitching performance and it was due to the fractured arm.

[HitInAPinch]

 

I'm not so sure about the "most recent injuries don’t have anything directly to do with his pitching arm" commentary.  His left [landing] leg was fractured and the mentioned "thoracic outlet syndrome" are no small things when combined.  Great news that he's embarrassing the need to change, but I have my doubts about his returning to the 2014 level. 

er, should have been "embracing".  that's what happens when you post before 3am.....

[Tom Froemming]

 

Breaking and offspeed pitches? So he's working on his curve AND his change? Or is he just working on his change which could be considered breaking and offspeed?

 

Because he has barely thrown his changeup in five years.

 

Definitely more work and attention has been put on the change than the curve, but the overall vibe is he is working on mixing things up more. Yes, the changeup has not been a pitch Hughes has been comfortable breaking out with any kind of regularity in the past, so he's been throwing it like crazy this spring.

 

He told Patrick Reusse "I’m in. I’m going to throw the changeup this year.” So I think, for better or worse, we're going to see Hughes continue to work on getting the feel for that pitch.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Another way to put it is this: do we consider Francisco Liriano broken down because he has too many miles on his arm?

 

Of course not. But... Francisco Liriano has pitched 600 more professional innings than Phil Hughes.

 

So let's loop around to the original comparison in this article: CC Sabathia.

 

Sabathia, through his age 30 season, had nearly double the MLB innings of Phil Hughes. A whopping 1150 more innings on his arm. Nearly six full seasons of additional innings by the time he was 30 years old.

 

If you want to talk about a worn-down arm, there you have it. Phil Hughes' arm is not worn down from overuse.

[alarp33]

 

My point is that Hughes hasn't pitched that many innings. There are "injury prone" guys who track not that many innings behind Hughes when adjusted for age.

 

The "too many miles on that horse" arguments don't hold much weight when you look at Hughes' arm mileage.

 

As for Gibson, he broke his arm while pitching in college. I believe it may have been discovered later but there were question marks about his pre-draft college pitching performance and it was due to the fractured arm.

 

Gotcha.  Yeah he hasn't been a 200 inning per year guy, but there are injuries starting to pop up, and he's about to start his 10th season in the majors.  Some mileage on him for sure.  

 

Yeah Gibson had a stress fracture his junior year, but it didn't affect his innings pitched, he started 15 games and threw over 100 inning

Edited March 31, 2017 by alarp33

[nicksaviking]

Another way to put it is this: do we consider Francisco Liriano broken down because he has too many miles on his arm?

 

Of course not. But... Francisco Liriano has pitched 600 more professional innings than Phil Hughes.

 

So let's loop around to the original comparison in this article: CC Sabathia.

 

Sabathia, through his age 30 season, had nearly double the MLB innings of Phil Hughes. A whopping 1150 more innings on his arm. Nearly six full seasons of additional innings by the time he was 30 years old.

 

If you want to talk about a worn-down arm, there you have it. Phil Hughes' arm is not worn down from overuse.

All fair points and comps I'm sure. I've been pretty consistent for quite awhile now though, I don't trust nor particularly want 30-year-old pitchers. Nearly to a man they've already peaked.

[Brock Beauchamp]

All fair points and comps I'm sure. I've been pretty consistent for quite awhile now though, I don't trust nor particularly want 30-year-old pitchers. Nearly to a man they've already peaked.

No arguments from me there. The original Hughes deal was smart management and a steal. Then they doubled down.

[Halsey Hall]

I heard today that Hughes will pitch tomorrow in a minor league game, but source not so trust worthy.

[Twins33]

I heard today that Hughes will pitch tomorrow in a minor league game, but source not so trust worthy.

I think I read somewhere that they were considering doing that, so sounds right to me. Don't ask me where I read it, because I really don't remember. Might have even been on twitter.

 

Found it. Rhett put it on twitter on the 27th. Mejia will pitch there on Sunday (at the time it was labeled as fifth starter winner).

Edited April 1, 2017 by Twins33

[DJL44]

Nobody mentions that it is a lot easier for a lefthander to get by with diminished stuff than a RHP?

 

I think Phil Hughes ends his Twins career as the long reliever.

[jimbo92107]

Hughes does have one major factor in his favor: He has always had excellent command. The same basic pitching mechanics that have allowed him to have a crazy-low walk percentage should also allow him to tinker successfully with new pitches. 

 

That said, it's his spring velocity that gives me the most hope. I was worried that Hughes would be stuck around 89 mph with his heater, a speed that won't allow him to beat major league hitters. 91 or 92 mph is much more workable. It provides the upper end that makes his off-speed pitches more effective. 

 

His first couple starts should be very interesting.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Another way to put it is this: do we consider Francisco Liriano broken down because he has too many miles on his arm?

 

Of course not. But... Francisco Liriano has pitched 600 more professional innings than Phil Hughes.

 

So let's loop around to the original comparison in this article: CC Sabathia.

 

Sabathia, through his age 30 season, had nearly double the MLB innings of Phil Hughes. A whopping 1150 more innings on his arm. Nearly six full seasons of additional innings by the time he was 30 years old.

 

If you want to talk about a worn-down arm, there you have it. Phil Hughes' arm is not worn down from overuse.

if Liriano came up w/ Thorasic Outlet Syndrome, yep I'd call him worn down. Age and innings are two components, and illustrated very well by your posts here that there's correlation, not necessarily causation, and that there's more to the miles argument.

 

One component is injury rate, type of injury, recovery period and reparation.

 

TOS and taking out part of a rib to improve circulation seems like a "you're getting old, let's see what we can do to extend your career".

 

Maybe some day it'll become a more clear cut "fix" like Tommy John Surgery. When Tommy John had his procedure done it wasn't exactly a perfect success, it took a few tries.

 

Best case scenario for Hughes, is he extends his career a bit. His circulatory issue isn't really "fixed" it's mitigated.

 

As to the CC comp...CC started much higher, there's more room for struggle and still be better than alternatives.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

if Liriano came up w/ Thorasic Outlet Syndrome, yep I'd call him worn down. Age and innings are two components, and illustrated very well by your posts here that there's correlation, not necessarily causation, and that there's more to the miles argument.

One component is injury rate, type of injury, recovery period and reparation.

TOS and taking out part of a rib to improve circulation seems like a "you're getting old, let's see what we can do to extend your career".

Maybe some day it'll become a more clear cut "fix" like Tommy John Surgery. When Tommy John had his procedure done it wasn't exactly a perfect success, it took a few tries.

Best case scenario for Hughes, is he extends his career a bit. His circulatory issue isn't really "fixed" it's mitigated.

As to the CC comp...CC started much higher, there's more room for struggle and still be better than alternatives.

Oh, I agree that there are guys whose arms just break down faster and harder than other guys. That was kind of my point. Hughes hasn't suffered from extended overuse, his arm just wasn't that solid in the first place.

 

That's not a knock on the guy, some guys have rubber arms, others don't... But it's hard to look at Hughes' track record and conclude an excess of innings is the cause of his ailments.