Berardino: Top of batting order remains a riddle

[Seth Stohs]

http://www.twincities.com/2017/03/04/top-of-batting-order-remains-a-riddle-for-minnesota-twins/

 

Mike Berardino wrote an interesting article. He talked to Brian Dozier and Joe Mauer, asking them about where they would ideally fit into a Twins lineup. 

 

I find this article rather interesting. Berardino clearly is writing with the intent of encouraging a lineup that Jack Goin's projections might say scores the most runs. But the quotes from both Mauer and Dozier seem to have old school written all over them. 

 

Mauer talks about being able to see things. Dozier talked about the little things and the science of scoring runs. 

 

 

“Mollie and I always joke about it,” said Dozier, who hit 30 solo homers last year. “I know sabermetrics and the possibility to drive in more runs and all this. I just love the leadoff spot. Just like Mollie, I like to ignite, get things going. Let’s just say you don’t play the game on paper.”

 

Berardino ends the article with quotes and isn't afraid to add a pointed opinion...

 

 

 

“There’s an art to scoring runs, and I think it’s a lost art,” Dozier said. “It’s not just about just getting on base. If a guy gets on base 40 percent of the time, it doesn’t mean he can score runs. It means he can get on base.”

This is a reference to base-clogging, which modern analytics have mostly disproved.

“You’ve got to factor in a lot of different intangibles: balls in the dirt, first-to-thirds, taking high-percentage stolen bases,” Dozier said. “All these little things factor into the art of scoring runs.”

It could be time to break out the lineup projections.

 

[TheLeviathan]

I hope over time our new FO starts to win these guys over to the value of analytics.  It's clear these guys are basically Terry Ryan-ing the entire concept even in discussion.

[Brandon Warne]

"If a guy gets on base 40 percent of the time, it doesn’t mean he can score runs. It means he can get on base."

 

I love Doz, but I'm dumber for having read that. 

[LaBombo]

Well, I thought it showed great restraint that Berardino did stop short of literally whaling on a Dusty Baker pinata...

[twinsnorth49]

Jesus, just play baseball Brian and leave the thinking to your cat.

 

Holy hell.

[Kwak]

Dozier is simply "looking out for #1".  He gets a lot of cookies batting first in the 1st inning and teams will generously overpay for HR hitters (which will soon become very useful for Dozier!).  OBP and Dozier--nope, he wants HRs and the big dollars that accompany them!

 

Why would Mauer make any substantive comment about what position he would occupy in the batting order? There is no advantage for him by making a comment.

[ashbury]

Jesus, just play baseball Brian and leave the thinking to your cat.

 

Holy hell.

"I'd like to introduce our participants for today's panel discussion on Analytics. Seated to my left, Brian Dozier. On my right, Glen Perkins. Gentlemen, here is your question: Analytics? All right, GO!"

[Thrylos]

The Twins need to get rid of Dozier yesterday...

[Seth Stohs]

OK, it is an interesting article showing the different thinking in the game today. It also speaks to players wanting or caring about the analytics. Some do. Some don't. Has nothing to do with them as a player. And, Molitor sets the lineup, so Dozier and Mauer can say whatever they want, but they don't make the lineup. And, both basically just said whatever is best for the team. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

The Twins need to get rid of Dozier yesterday...

 

This makes no sense in the context of this forum. Why would what he says in this article have anything to do with trading him or not?

[Thrylos]

 

This makes no sense in the context of this forum. Why would what he says in this article have anything to do with trading him or not?

 

Because he will be a pain in the neck to deal with, if he insists that he should lead off, and the Twins will be better off without him and his selfishness.   Time to teach the young players that this is a team game... 

[KGB]

 

 

"If a guy gets on base 40 percent of the time, it doesn’t mean he can score runs. It means he can get on base."

 

 

AKA Mauer

Getting on base 40% of the time and scoring (RS%) 30% actually scores as much as Buxton getting on base 30% of the time but scoring 40% of the time.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mauerjo01-bat.shtml

 

With runs score correlating more to slugging percentage instead of OBP along with just getting a better hitter more at bats, it doesn't seem to be such a bad idea to hit Dozier in front of Mauer.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/community/when-slugging-percentage-beats-on-base-percentage/

 

 

 

 

[Dozier's Glorious Hair]

 

Because he will be a pain in the neck to deal with, if he insists that he should lead off, and the Twins will be better off without him and his selfishness.   Time to teach the young players that this is a team game... 

 

Wait, where in Dozier's history does it suggest at all that he would insist where he bats in the lineup? What evidence is there that he is a "pain in the neck" or a selfish player?

[Thrylos]

 

Wait, where in Dozier's history does it suggest at all that he would insist where he bats in the lineup? What evidence is there that he is a "pain in the neck" or a selfish player?

 

Plenty in this write up, including this:

 

 

 

I just love the leadoff spot. Just like Mollie, I like to ignite, get things going. Let’s just say you don’t play the game on paper.”

 

 

[Dozier's Glorious Hair]

 

Plenty in this write up, including this:

 

That isn't evidence of anything other than he loves to hit in the leadoff spot and likes to "get things going."

 

Labeling him a selfish player just based on that is pretty unfair. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Because he will be a pain in the neck to deal with, if he insists that he should lead off, and the Twins will be better off without him and his selfishness.   Time to teach the young players that this is a team game... 

 

Pretty sure Dozier is not selfish, and reading anything into those quotes isn't fair. He likes hitting leadoff. Nothing wrong with him saying that. Nothing wrong with him voicing that to Molitor. In the same paragraph, he says he's happy to do whatever to help the team win. 

[Thrylos]

 

Pretty sure Dozier is not selfish, and reading anything into those quotes isn't fair. He likes hitting leadoff. Nothing wrong with him saying that. Nothing wrong with him voicing that to Molitor. In the same paragraph, he says he's happy to do whatever to help the team win. 

 

Sure.  He says.   I suspect that he would be happy to take a walk to help the team win once in a while, then.  No?

 

2016.  With 2 strikes (and this includes 2-2 and 3-2 counts) :

 

.209/.259/.355 21 walks, 138 strikeouts

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

Because he will be a pain in the neck to deal with, if he insists that he should lead off, and the Twins will be better off without him and his selfishness.   Time to teach the young players that this is a team game... 

I don't believe Dozier is selfish at all, he just happens to be much better at hitting high fast balls out of the park than drawing a lot of walks or hitting to the opposite field. I'm sure he would if he could.

[ashbury]

2016.  With 2 strikes (and this includes 2-2 and 3-2 counts) :

 

.209/.259/.355 21 walks, 138 strikeouts

The same information can be looked up for the American League as a whole. Pro-rating to the 359 such plate appearances Dozier had, the league did this:

 

.176/.246/.276 28 walks, 148 strikeouts

 

Dozier also had more extra base hits than par, reflected in the SLG of course.

 

No one does well with 2 strikes. He did better than league average at getting on base with 2 strikes. How do Dozier's numbers indicate selfishness and painintheneckness, again?

[bird]

 

Plenty in this write up, including this:

 

 

The only evidence you're producing is evidence of your own subjectivity. Dozier is certainly not the first player you've decided to assign unsavory personal traits to (see Cuddyer), but it would be really nice if it were the last, for your own credibility. 

[TheLeviathan]

I think it's a bit naive to dismiss this with "Molitor makes the lineups".  These guys have significant influence in getting what they want and even if they don't, and they mope through his changes because they don't like it, they'll force his hand one way or the other.

 

We need them to embrace the thinking for the betterment of the team.  Not just dismiss it out of hand.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Sure.  He says.   I suspect that he would be happy to take a walk to help the team win once in a while, then.  No?

 

2016.  With 2 strikes (and this includes 2-2 and 3-2 counts) :

 

.209/.259/.355 21 walks, 138 strikeouts

 

Oh... ummmm... selfish... I guess?? Huh?

[Seth Stohs]

 

I think it's a bit naive to dismiss this with "Molitor makes the lineups".  These guys have significant influence in getting what they want and even if they don't, and they mope through his changes because they don't like it, they'll force his hand one way or the other.

 

We need them to embrace the thinking for the betterment of the team.  Not just dismiss it out of hand.

 

Again, any evidence to this moping through changes thing would be welcomed... Feel free to share...

[ToddlerHarmon]

Although the numbers argue for players of Doziers profile to bat in the middle of the order, the specific Dozier seems to perform significantly better out of the leadoff, over a significant sample (according to the numbers in the article). Who knows why, but it seems like a real phenomenon. Should it be dismissed?

[Brandon Warne]

 

Sure.  He says.   I suspect that he would be happy to take a walk to help the team win once in a while, then.  No?

 

2016.  With 2 strikes (and this includes 2-2 and 3-2 counts) :

 

.209/.259/.355 21 walks, 138 strikeouts

 

What? The league split for that situation was .177/.246/.278

[twinsnorth49]

"Thrylos" Plenty in this write up, including this

:Quote

I just love the leadoff spot. Just like Mollie, I like to ignite, get things going. Let’s just say you don’t play the game on paper.”

 

You're just making **** up, just stop now.

 

You have literally zero credible evidence Dozier is a demanding, selfish player.

[ScrapTheNickname]

And the game is not played on paper. That's just silly.

[Platoon]

There weren't any numbers for the "plummet" that was referenced about Dozier further down in the order. I assume meaning 3-4? But my memory and eyes agree he was ineffective there. As for FO making regular suggestions as to starting lineups, and frequent conversations on those lineups, I am not sure I concur. The info should be shared as much and as often as possible. But I think it's the FO who should put a team on the field, and it's the manager who should make the daily lineup decisions. You cannot manage with someone questioning day to day moves. Those questions should be on the body of your work, not the singular parts. If as a FO you believe in decent pitching, good defense, and smart baserunning, but have a manager who believes in mashing the ball, you might need a new manager, because you aren't going to change the core beliefs of anyone who got that far in the game. I am not a Molitor fan, but if he has to make out his lineups wondering what Falvine will think of today's version, he has my sympathies!

[Miraclebat]

 

Sure.  He says.   I suspect that he would be happy to take a walk to help the team win once in a while, then.  No?

 

2016.  With 2 strikes (and this includes 2-2 and 3-2 counts) :

 

.209/.259/.355 21 walks, 138 strikeouts

Please, please quit while you're behind.

 

[HitInAPinch]

IMHO:  In the brave, new world of advanced stats, I don't believe any manager has a lineup forced upon him.  At least I haven't hear of that happening.  He is provided with the information, that's it.  Now, if the manager's lineup isn't producing, then I'd speculate that, if he's not following/using the info provided, that would be a reason for termination. 

 

Having said that, I also don't believe any manager completely turns his back on the info provided.