The Theory of DFAing Joe Mauer?

[jimmer]

I sometimes laugh when I think about what Ryan would have done with the 23M a year contract Mauer gets that has been holding this team back. 

 

I imagine we'd have a team payroll around 87M instead of 97M, with 13M a year split between a utility IF type who would be starting for us and a #5 starter(like we don't have enough of those).  

 

His payroll hasn't been hampering us and we haven't developed anyone better than him yet.  We certainly wouldn't have paid for anyone better either.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The front office has to realize Joe is no longer a 150 game a season player, right?

 

I wouldn't call for a strict platoon but I'd be sitting Joe at least once a week.

 

I'd target 130-ish games a season for him in 2017 and see what happens.

[jimmer]

 

The front office has to realize Joe is no longer a 150 game a season player, right?

 

I wouldn't call for a strict platoon but I'd be sitting Joe at least once a week.

 

I'd target 130-ish games a season for him in 2017 and see what happens.

Maybe what happened last year when he started 125 games

[USAFChief]

The front office has to realize Joe is no longer a 150 game a season player, right?

 

I wouldn't call for a strict platoon but I'd be sitting Joe at least once a week.

 

I'd target 130-ish games a season for him in 2017 and see what happens.

I'd find a way to almost never let him start against LH pitching.

 

So...strict platoon.

 

And if his slugging continues to be below .400, he's no longer automatically in the lineup against RH pitching, nor is he in the top half of the lineup.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'd find a way to almost never let him start against LH pitching.

I was thinking about that as I typed the post.

 

Would you rather have Grossman in the field, replacing Kepler or Rosario, or Robbie subbing in at DH for Vargas, with Kennys rotating over to first base?

 

It's an offensive gain and a defensive loss either way.

 

Vargas is less damaging at first than Grossman is in left, though Mauer is much better against lefties than Rosario.

 

I don't know if there's a right or wrong answer, really.

 

edit: I take that back. Holy moly, Mauer was terrible against lefties last season. I thought his OPS was over .650, not .610.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Maybe what happened last year when he started 125 games

Yeah, but his 125 game limit was injury related. I'd like to see more regular days off, not "play Joe until he breaks down, rinse, repeat".

[jimmer]

 

Yeah, but his 125 game limit was injury related. I'd like to see more regular days off, not "play Joe until he breaks down, rinse, repeat".

Certainly.

[USAFChief]

I was thinking about that as I typed the post.

 

Would you rather have Grossman in the field, replacing Kepler or Rosario, or Robbie subbing in at DH for Vargas, with Kennys rotating over to first base?

 

It's an offensive gain and a defensive loss either way.

 

Vargas is less damaging at first than Grossman is in left, though Mauer is much better against lefties than Rosario.

 

I don't know if there's a right or wrong answer, really.

I'd have rather seen them find a better RH hitting outfielder than Grossman. And go with a partner (or partners) for Mauer at 1b/DH. Napoli would have worked, in conjunction with Vargas. Park might still be that guy.

 

But they didnt, so I don't know the answer.

 

My personal belief is Grossman won't last the season. Last year was a fluke offensively, there's a reason he was available for free.

[jimmer]

 

edit: I take that back. Holy moly, Mauer was terrible against lefties last season. I thought his OPS was over .650, not .610.

In 2015, he had a higher OPS against lefties than righties (barely).  But yeah, he should sit against lefties. It's time.  Then he's available for pinch hitting when a righty is brought in.

[Riverbrian]

The front office has to realize Joe is no longer a 150 game a season player, right?

 

I wouldn't call for a strict platoon but I'd be sitting Joe at least once a week.

 

I'd target 130-ish games a season for him in 2017 and see what happens.

This is one of my largest concerns.

 

When Paul Molitor basically publicly apologized to Brian Dozier for a one game benching despite his lengthy obvious for all to see struggles. It suggests to me a sense of entitlement is being issued to the experienced or pre-selected. It also suggests to me a willingness tolerate sub-par play for the sake of... I don't know... I have no idea why a manager would need to be apologetic to a veteran for not putting him the lineup when he isn't performing.

 

Until Molitor shows a willingness to be as intolerant of veteran average performance as he is with youthful average performance... I fear that nothing will change. We all watched the ship go down last year with very little adjustment to stop the sinking.

 

So yeah... I agree with you... hopefully the new front office will recognize this.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I was thinking about that as I typed the post.

 

Would you rather have Grossman in the field, replacing Kepler or Rosario, or Robbie subbing in at DH for Vargas, with Kennys rotating over to first base?

 

It's an offensive gain and a defensive loss either way.

 

Vargas is less damaging at first than Grossman is in left, though Mauer is much better against lefties than Rosario.

 

I don't know if there's a right or wrong answer, really.

 

edit: I take that back. Holy moly, Mauer was terrible against lefties last season. I thought his OPS was over .650, not .610.

id rather have Vargas take the lions share at first and have Mauer and Grossman platoon DH. Mauer would do good with a lighter workload and I don't want to see Grossman in the OF and I think it's possible Vargas improves hitting and fielding with fielding consistency. Vargas is a downgrade at first, but 500 innings is too small of a sample to have an idea of extent.

[jimmer]

 

This is one of my largest concerns.

When Paul Molitor basically publicly apologized to Brian Dozier for a one game benching despite his lengthy obvious for all to see struggles. It suggests to me a sense of entitlement is being issued to the experienced or pre-selected. It also suggests to me a willingness tolerate sub-par play for the sake of... I don't know... I have no idea why a manager would need to be apologetic to a veteran for not putting him the lineup when he isn't performing.

Until Molitor shows a willingness to be as intolerant of veteran average performance as he is with youthful average performance... I fear that nothing will change. We all watched the ship go down last year with very little adjustment to stop the sinking.

So yeah... I agree with you... hopefully the new front office will recognize this.

Have to have a manager who can get his players to buy into a philosophy.  It also helps having players that seem at least competent to fill in while the bigger name players are sitting.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

id rather have Vargas take the lions share at first and have Mauer and Grossman platoon DH. Mauer would do good with a lighter workload and I don't want to see Grossman in the OF and I think it's possible Vargas improves with fielding consistency

You're giving up quite a bit of defense at first with that alignment. Mauer has turned into a quite good first baseman over the past few years.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

You're giving up quite a bit of defense at first with that alignment. Mauer has turned into a quite good first baseman over the past few years.

hard to know what you have with Vargas' 500 innings at first.

[Willihammer]

Does the death of the platoon player and increase in bullpen size over the years have anything to do with the narrative that players slump because of sporadic playing time (as would happen when platooned)? No idea what the answer is. Anyone know of research on the death of the platoon and/or everyday playing time vs sporadic playing time?

[Brock Beauchamp]

hard to know what you have with Vargas' 500 innings at first.

True, but I've never seen a scouting report that viewed him favorably.

 

And he'd be replacing one of the better defensive first basemen in the game so there'd be *some* drop off defensively.

[DJSim22]

 

It has to be asked:  what is the cost of DFAing Joe Mauer?  If he's claimed, its a huge savings. If not, a 40 man roster spot opens up.

 

I doubt there are any current advantages, but could it be used in theory to free up cash and or a 40 man roster spot?

 

Why would anyone take Mauer at 23 Million? Why pay him 46 million for nothing?  He still is a good baseball player. He's a shell of his former self, but it's not like he's a 25th player on a roster.  He should be the #2 hitter in the line up getting on base and scoring lots of runs. 

[DJSim22]

 

In theory, theory and reality are the same. In reality, theory and reality are not the same.

 

The reality is the Twins FO is working in reality where as I feel like some posters are posting like it is a fantasy baseball league.

[DJSim22]

 

Now for the ceremonial beating of the dead horse ...

 

"On base machine" seems like a slight exaggeration of Mauer's 2016 performance. He ranked 31st overall in OBP among qualifying MLB players. And OBP s the only stat he did relatively well in.

 

It's also the most important stat for a top of the order player. 

[specialiststeve]

Reality is that he is going nowhere. He is still a huge fan favorite and would be a marketing nightmare if he were DFA'd. This is why you have team options. He is still  an okay player but  not a 23 million dollar player. Best we can do in this thing is as some have stated to platoon him and get the young guys the bulk of the AB's.

 

In a perfect world I would want Sano to  turn into a good 3rd basemen but it more likely he will go to 1st ala Miguel Cabrera when Joe calls it a career.

[DJSim22]

 

id rather have Vargas take the lions share at first and have Mauer and Grossman platoon DH. Mauer would do good with a lighter workload and I don't want to see Grossman in the OF and I think it's possible Vargas improves hitting and fielding with fielding consistency. Vargas is a downgrade at first, but 500 innings is too small of a sample to have an idea of extent.

 

Three of them for two positions and and a bench bat.  I'd rather have Mauer at first.  Vargas can play first once or twice a week, Grossman can DH those days. 

[Brandon Warne]

 

This is one of my largest concerns.

When Paul Molitor basically publicly apologized to Brian Dozier for a one game benching despite his lengthy obvious for all to see struggles. It suggests to me a sense of entitlement is being issued to the experienced or pre-selected. It also suggests to me a willingness tolerate sub-par play for the sake of... I don't know... I have no idea why a manager would need to be apologetic to a veteran for not putting him the lineup when he isn't performing.

Until Molitor shows a willingness to be as intolerant of veteran average performance as he is with youthful average performance... I fear that nothing will change. We all watched the ship go down last year with very little adjustment to stop the sinking.

So yeah... I agree with you... hopefully the new front office will recognize this.

 

He said in the second half that he was aware Joe plays better with more time off. Keep in mind, Mauer was playing very, very well for the bulk of the season before the quad stuff cropped up. It's hard to strike a balance, though it was pretty obvious Joe wasn't right late in the season until he ultimately just sat out the rest of the way. 

[Brandon Warne]

 

Now for the ceremonial beating of the dead horse ...

 

"On base machine" seems like a slight exaggeration of Mauer's 2016 performance. He ranked 31st overall in OBP among qualifying MLB players. And OBP s the only stat he did relatively well in.

 

31st in OBP, 30 teams in MLB? I'd say that's pretty good. Machine? Maybe not. But if we must compare Joe to other full-time players, it's pretty decent.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Why would anyone take Mauer at 23 Million? Why pay him 46 million for nothing? He still is a good baseball player. He's a shell of his former self, but it's not like he's a 25th player on a roster. He should be the #2 hitter in the line up getting on base and scoring lots of runs.

#2 hitter in the order is reminiscing of the past. He's not that guy anymore. 6th or 7th batter in the lineup is fine too.

 

Agreed he still has tons of value to the team, not 23 mil worth but your stuck paying him anyways so might as well get some value for it.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Three of them for two positions and and a bench bat. I'd rather have Mauer at first. Vargas can play first once or twice a week, Grossman can DH those days.

if you are serious about finding out what you have in Vargas, 250-300 innings is not enough to make a decision. The straight up platoon on Mauer is probably going to put more on him than his body can give.

 

Need to rest Mauer more than the platoon splits for a lefty would require.

 

If Joe could only play 125 games in '16, how many fewer in 17 and how many fewer in 18? It'd be nice to have the built in battery mate to take over and spend more of your GM resources acquiring pitching.

[BK432]

 

No seriously though, what's even the point? To get him off the roster? That's literally the only benefit of designating him for assignment, and that's a murky benefit even on his worst day. 

 

Yeah, I don't even get how this question is asked. How is this team significantly better without Mauer on it? Because that's the only reason you'd even ask the question....like if he were a -2 WAR player and he was blocking a 5 WAR guy. But that's not even remotely the case.

[Riverbrian]

 

He said in the second half that he was aware Joe plays better with more time off. Keep in mind, Mauer was playing very, very well for the bulk of the season before the quad stuff cropped up. It's hard to strike a balance, though it was pretty obvious Joe wasn't right late in the season until he ultimately just sat out the rest of the way. 

 

The last thing I want to do is tear down Joe. His swing is still as sweet as they come. 

 

But... I just can't agree with "very very well"  

 

However... I don't want to work very hard tearing him down to support my points. He's one of us... I'd much rather have his back. 

 

If Molitor wants to rest Joe to keep him strong... I'm ok with that. It's a new year and I want to see what it brings. 

 

If something ain't right with Joe in 2017... I'm hoping that Molitor has the guts to try someone/something else for awhile

 

A little less toleration. 

 

Not just Joe... The Rotation... The Pen... The 40 Man Roster. 

[Brandon Warne]

 

#2 hitter in the order is reminiscing of the past. He's not that guy anymore. 6th or 7th batter in the lineup is fine too.

Agreed he still has tons of value to the team, not 23 mil worth but your stuck paying him anyways so might as well get some value for it.

 

Maybe on a more traditionally structured lineup. The Twins don't have much in the way of OBP guys, so I think you could justify batting him first or second.

[jimmer]

 

Maybe on a more traditionally structured lineup. The Twins don't have much in the way of OBP guys, so I think you could justify batting him first or second.

yeah, I want higher OBP guys getting more PAs not less.

[Brandon Warne]

 

The last thing I want to do is tear down Joe. His swing is still as sweet as they come. 

 

But... I just can't agree with "very very well"  

 

However... I don't want to work very hard tearing him down to support my points. He's one of us... I'd much rather have his back. 

 

If Molitor wants to rest Joe to keep him strong... I'm ok with that. It's a new year and I want to see what it brings. 

 

If something ain't right with Joe in 2017... I'm hoping that Molitor has the guts to try someone/something else for awhile

 

A little less toleration. 

 

He played 112 of the team's first 119 games and hit .284/.384/.417. In that game against Atlanta, he screwed up his quad and the rest of his season was wrecked.

 

He played just 22 of the remaining 43 games (20 starts) and hit just .146/.255/.244 the rest of the way. 

 

That's a pretty clear divide if you ask me. 

 

There's also this: 

 

From the All-Star Break until the Atlanta game, Mauer hit .324/.420/.529 while starting 26 of the team's 31 games. That's 83.9 percent, or about a 135-game per season pace. Before that, he had hit .271/.372/.381 while starting 79 of the team's first 88 games (a 145-game (89.8 percent) pace).

 

My deduction is this: less is more with Mauer. Molitor said that was one of the primary considerations he had during the All-Star Break, and I think it's pretty clear that it was a big deal. 

 

So if Joe can get into 120-130 games this year, I think he can be a fairly productive player.