The Theory of DFAing Joe Mauer?

[Steve Lein]

 

Wasn't first where they initially slotted him, then moved him to outfield? Or was he always outfield, but given reps at first? I read so many different things I am easily confused.

 

I recall them signing him to play outfield. He played primarily 1B before he became a pro. Has played 1B quite a bit throughout the minors, including his trip to the AFL where that's basically all he played (were taking it easy on his arm at the time, I believe). I've said this before, but I wouldn't doubt it's actually his best defensive position (That doesn't mean he's worth more there defensively than what he's capable of in the OF).

[ThejacKmp]

 

Who on earth would claim him?  And, I'm reasonably sure the a guaranteed contract still needs to be paid by somebody.

 

That's the real thing. There are likely 5-10 of teams that would take him in a heartbeat as a platoon at 1B/DH or even as a nice left handed bench bat - but only once he cleared waivers. Then they could sign him for the minimum while the Twins pay the rest.

[HitInAPinch]

 

No idea .... Palka? Kepler (not in the minors)? No one in AA or AAA, I don't think.

 

Hence their interest in Bellinger, imo.

Yeah, that's kind of my thing.  Who?  In the fantasy fantastical idea that the Twins, somehow, get out of Mauer's contract and release/retire him, who's next?

 

Sure would have been sweet to get a guy like Bellinger. 

 

And, please, NOT Vargas.

 

 

 

 

[Squirrel]

 

I recall them signing him to play outfield. He played primarily 1B before he became a pro. Has played 1B quite a bit throughout the minors, including his trip to the AFL where that's basically all he played (were taking it easy on his arm at the time, I believe). I've said this before, but I wouldn't doubt it's actually his best defensive position (That doesn't mean he's worth more there defensively than what he's capable of in the OF).

Maybe that's what I remember. I know both have been a part of his baseball life, just couldn't remember to what capacity where/when. Thanks.

[laloesch]

 

Question:  Who would be the MiLB 1st baseman on deck?

 

Kepler has played there in the past and so has Palka.

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

First of all, you do not save any cash if you  DFA Mauer. You pay him $46M over the next two season whether he is on the roster or not.
Second, I don't believe any other team would take on that salary based on where he is at in his career now. 
Third, he is still an on base machine. He was second only to Robbie Grossman last year with a .363 OBP while providing above average fielding at 1B.

 

I like you thinking outside the box, but this isn't likely to happen this year.

Now for the ceremonial beating of the dead horse ...

 

"On base machine" seems like a slight exaggeration of Mauer's 2016 performance. He ranked 31st overall in OBP among qualifying MLB players. And OBP s the only stat he did relatively well in.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

10-and-5 no trade protection is the exact same as a contractual full no trade protection.

 

Sometimes though, contractual no trade clauses are only "partial" -- that is, a list of teams a player can't be traded to without his consent.

 

Still, either full or partial no-trade protection must be waived by the player before a team could put the player on waivers, according to the Cub Reporter link I posted earlier.

thanks for sharing the cub reporter link, it did a better job of detailing out that a partial no trade still has the same effect on waivers.

 

I hadn't gotten that far on the thread, but glad I read it

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Now for the ceremonial beating of the dead horse ...

 

"On base machine" seems like a slight exaggeration of Mauer's 2016 performance. He ranked 31st overall in OBP among qualifying MLB players. And OBP s the only stat he did relatively well in.

agreed, I also think his fielding chops at first are exaggerated and good fielding at first is a good thing, certainly better than poor fielding at third, however good enough is good enough at first.

 

He's still a valuable player and shouldn't be discarded cavalierly. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to open up his roster spot in a trade, but that is not likely to happen. He's one of their best hitters and should be DH or First Base against most righties as health permits

[drjim]

Kepler can play 1st. After 2018 we might see Kepler, Vargas and Palka all their sporadically.

Sano

[Brandon Warne]

No seriously though, what's even the point? To get him off the roster? That's literally the only benefit of designating him for assignment, and that's a murky benefit even on his worst day. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

I don't think there is a valid reason to DFA him today but that decision needs to be made by comparing him to 1B candidates on the Twins and in the league in general.  Not by evaluating him against the 9 best hitters on the Twins or against all hitters in the MLB.

 

Really excellent post.  Mauer isn't a bad player, I don't think anyone is arguing that.  But my god, I really tire of how hard some people work to slap lipstick on this particular pig.  

[Willihammer]

Kepler to 1B, Sano to RF.

[Brandon Warne]

 

Really excellent post.  Mauer isn't a bad player, I don't think anyone is arguing that.  But my god, I really tire of how hard some people work to slap lipstick on this particular pig.  

 

I don't follow the logic. He's the best defensive first baseman on the team -- by probably a fairly long shot -- and gets on base more than pretty much anyone else on the team. 

 

The "nine-best hitters" bit is an oversimplication, but until he's actually actively hurting the offense, he's going to play. He's very far from doing that. 

[TheLeviathan]

I don't follow the logic. He's the best defensive first baseman on the team -- by probably a fairly long shot -- and gets on base more than pretty much anyone else on the team. 

 

The "nine-best hitters" bit is an oversimplication, but until he's actually actively hurting the offense, he's going to play. He's very far from doing that.

 

I never suggested he shouldn't play for this team right now. I'm just tired of cherry picking stats without context or relative to his position. I'm tired of any argument that includes something approximating "he was great until...*insert injury excuse here*".

 

He is what he is - a below average offensive 1B - there would be a lot less teeth gnashing about him if we all accept that.

[Brandon Warne]

Believe he had the ninth-best OBP among 1B last year. That's not total garbage. I mean....it's whatever. He's a sunk cost who had a serious brain injury. It's not ideal. 

[Doomtints]

 

Believe he had the ninth-best OBP among 1B last year. That's not total garbage. I mean....it's whatever. He's a sunk cost who had a serious brain injury. It's not ideal. 

 

That's almost an apples to oranges comparison.  First basemen tend to be power mashers.

 

Thinking about Mauer is wasted time. He's gonna be around. The Twins should start him no more than 120 times, but other than that he is what he is.........

I agree that he's not terrible. He's just not what one typically wants from a first basemen. But whatever, it's not like much has gone right for this team for six years anyway.

 

[Brandon Warne]

He was roughly a league-average first baseman offensively last year. It is what it is. 

[TheLeviathan]

He was roughly a league-average first baseman offensively last year. It is what it is.

He was 22nd in wRC+ in all of baseball for 1B with 400+ plate appearances. By what measure is he "league average offensively"?

[Brandon Warne]

He was 22nd in wRC+ in all of baseball for 1B with 400+ plate appearances. By what measure is he "league average offensively"?

 

.327 wOBA against an AL average mark of .329

102 wRC+ against an AL average mark of 105

[TheLeviathan]

.327 wOBA against an AL average mark of .329

102 wRC+ against an AL average mark of 105

 

I'm not sure where you're getting your numbers. Are those averages based on all players or 1B? Because that makes a sizable difference.

[USAFChief]

.327 wOBA against an AL average mark of .329

102 wRC+ against an AL average mark of 105

FG shows Mauer 18th of 23 qualified first basemen in wOBA, 18th of 23 in wRC+.

 

And those rankings probably overstate his relative position. He was .086 behind the wOBA leader and only .029 above last. 56 points off the wRC+ lead, 15 points above the bottom.

 

MLB averages for anyone who played 1st were .334 and 108.

 

You have to squint pretty hard and expand the pool to "very wide and very shallow" to come anywhere close to league average.

[Brandon Warne]

AL first basemen: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0,ss&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

Joe Mauer: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1857&position=C

 

There's a survivor bias in using only qualified players because of how many plate appearances that requires. I prefer to use this information. 

[USAFChief]

AL first basemen: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=0&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0,ss&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

Joe Mauer: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1857&position=C

 

There's a survivor bias in using only qualified players because of how many plate appearances that requires. I prefer to use this information.

 

I guess, but it makes sense to me to compare him to the people who actually play the position.

 

And he doesn't hit enough, when compared to other first basemen.

 

Even using your definition, "almost league average" isn't doing anyone any good. You don't win 95 games featuring "almost league average" in the middle of your lineup.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I guess, but it makes sense to me to compare him to the people who actually play the position.

And he doesn't hit enough, when compared to other first basemen.

 

Right, I guess you can dilute the pool enough to make him look average, but that's not really that helpful.  I care about how he compares to other starting, full time 1B because that's what he is.  

 

So if I compare full time 1B Joe Mauer to other full time 1B in the AL - by wRC+ he's 9th out of 14.  By wOBA he's also 9th out of 14.  

 

We don't need to do statistical gymnastics here, let's compare him to his peers.

[TheLeviathan]

He can be both a below average offensive 1B and still their best option. Those aren't mutually exclusive.

[Squirrel]

Moderator note: Things are starting to take a snippy tone here. If you have something to say on the topic, say it. If you don't, don't. These are not 'winnable debates' we have here. If you disagree you disagree. So what? Hammering your same points over and over and over doesn't make you more right or more convincing.

[USAFChief]

He can be both a below average offensive 1B and still their best option. Those aren't mutually exclusive.

And in need of improved play or replacement.

 

They aren't going to DFA him, for many reasons. Obviously. But it's going to be tough for the Twins to get where we want them to be with the current Mauer playing first base. He takes up too much payroll while limiting them offensively. I hope the new front office is willing to at least accept reality and be open minded enough to look for better solutions than "well, he's Joe Mauer. Run him out there every day and hope he draws a few walks."

[Riverbrian]

I love Joe... he's one of my top 5 favorite Twins of all time. I think he's a valuable player and he can still help us win ball games but I feel very strongly that he is no longer an everyday must be on the field player. I see no point in DFA at the present time with the present roster but he needs to improve his performance to justify a permanent spot in the lineup.

[Guest]

Clever hypothetical, but impractical for reasons stated by many.

 

Right now, Mauer has 50 bWAR, despite essentially having his career truncated by injury. He was a fantastic player and could still be one of the team's better offensive players. (There really isn't much in the system or free agency to replace him.) It would be great if he could have a couple more OK years and then get a decent retirement tour in 2018, unless - and here's another hypothetical: do you think he might sign a much smaller contract to be a PT player in 2019?

[TheLeviathan]

And in need of improved play or replacement.

They aren't going to DFA him, for many reasons. Obviously. But it's going to be tough for the Twins to get where we want them to be with the current Mauer playing first base. He takes up too much payroll while limiting them offensively. I hope the new front office is willing to at least accept reality and be open minded enough to look for better solutions than "well, he's Joe Mauer. Run him out there every day and hope he draws a few walks."

Certainly. I'm on board with making him more of a five days out of seven player at this point. And when his contract expires, I wish him well.

 

And between then and now, I too hope they are willing to let his playing time be determined by production and not past pedigree.