Five AA pitchers

[Mike Sixel]

Ok, I know this sounds potentially stupid.....but the Twins have 5 pitchers in AA that will all "arrive" around the same time. IMO, they are all about the same in terms of being number 3 types starters, probably, as ceilings.

 

Would you deal any of them, say 2, for SS/3B/OF, either at the MLB level or for different prospects (putting aside prospect for prospect trades rarely happen)?

 

Would you just keep them all, and let it play out (thereby, any that don't work out provide no long term value)?

 

Do you assume any that aren't working out move to the bullpen? Or, would you keep them in AAA as starters and backups for injuries?

[drjim]

What kind of return do you get in a trade?

 

I don't think any of them have that much value. Maybe as a second piece in a trade for a guy like Dozier, so would only be plugging a hole for a couple of years when the team isn't in the best position to contend.

[Mike Sixel]

 

What kind of return do you get in a trade?

 

I don't think any of them have that much value. Maybe as a second piece in a trade for a guy like Dozier, so would only be plugging a hole for a couple of years when the team isn't in the best position to contend.

 

Well, that was kind of the question.....but let's look at it this way....

 

If we think Santana could return an equivalent player, is there a kind of player like ESan you'd deal them for? 

 

Or, if prospect trades happen, would you deal one for a hitter (SS, 3B, C, OF) in about the same range in the prospect list?

 

I'd CONSIDER dealing two of them, assuming the Dozier deal lands De Leon and Alvarez (or another SP prospect).

[Vanimal46]

Yes, I would certainly consider trading 1-2 of them for MLB help right now. Out of those 5 names, realistically 1 or 2 will pan out, and the others will flame out. Roll the dice on 3 and trade the others.

[Thrylos]

5?

 

Gonsalves

Jorge

Romero

Jay

Stewart

 

?

 

I'd keep Romero (his ceiling is a bit higher than the others) as a starter, move Jay to the pen (he can help the Twins in 2017) and package the others with existing MLB talent for near MLB-ready top of the rotation talent.

 

Like saying "Urias is untouchable" and finding a way of making him touchable.

 

to those names, I would definitely add position player prospects in a trade.  The Twins need to learn that it is better to add to a trade a (let's say) Adam Walker to get better players in return, that let him go the way they did. 

 

Hope the new administration gets it.

[drjim]

5?

 

Gonsalves

Jorge

Romero

Jay

Stewart

 

?

 

I'd keep Romero (his ceiling is a bit higher than the others) as a starter, move Jay to the pen (he can help the Twins in 2017) and package the others with existing MLB talent for near MLB-ready top of the rotation talent.

 

Like saying "Urias is untouchable" and finding a way of making him touchable.

 

to those names, I would definitely add position player prospects in a trade. The Twins need to learn that it is better to add to a trade a (let's say) Adam Walker to get better players in return, that let him go the way they did.

 

Hope the new administration gets it.

 

Adam Walker wasn't worth anything as an add on to a trade at any point. Even the new regime will realize this.

 

I wouldn't necessarily be opposed to adding 1-2 to a veteran for increased return, but there is a reason that type of trade is extremely rare.

[drjim]

Well, that was kind of the question.....but let's look at it this way....

 

If we think Santana could return an equivalent player, is there a kind of player like ESan you'd deal them for?

 

Or, if prospect trades happen, would you deal one for a hitter (SS, 3B, C, OF) in about the same range in the prospect list?

 

I'd CONSIDER dealing two of them, assuming the Dozier deal lands De Leon and Alvarez (or another SP prospect).

I'm no fun, but I think this type of scenario sounds a lot better in theory and falls apart when you start to consider the type of players that are available and can be had for 1-2 B/B- prospects. Short answer, there are not many, and teams that are actually competing would be more motivated to acquire them.

 

I would be more interested in acquiring blocked guys and trying to catch something and keeping my arms.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm no fun, but I think this type of scenario sounds a lot better in theory and falls apart when you start to consider the type of players that are available and can be had for 1-2 B/B- prospects. Short answer, there are not many, and teams that are actually competing would be more motivated to acquire them.

I would be more interested in acquiring blocked guys and trying to catch something and keeping my arms.

 

I wouldn't say you are no fun, I'd say you answered the question...No, you would not trade any of them.

 

Btw, how do you acquire said blocked players (like Grossman, I assume).

[nicksaviking]

I'd throw them in as auxiliary pieces in a big trade to get a better return, but I wouldn't move any of them for a position player of similar stature. Individually their value can't be all that high so the return would likely be a long shot in itself. However as a group I think they may have value to the Twins and as a group I wouldn't call them a longshot simply because one would have to think that with a group of similarly skilled and valued pitchers, the odds are that one of them will do something of value for the big club.

 

Unless I'm working a blockbuster trade, I wouldn't like decreasing those odds.

 

Also I think I've seen this movie before. The five under consideration all bust and out of nowhere it ends up being Aaron Slegers we were supposed to be cheering for this whole time. It was a pretty good twist ending.

[High heat]

I'd sit and wait and see how things shake out. Romero has top of the rotation stuff Gonsalves has been successful at every stop and again has a prototype pitchers frame from the left side. TylerJay has top of the rotation stuff if he can stay health and master a change up or good 3rd pitch. If not he is a Glenn perkins as a reliever.

 

Jorge and Stewart aren't anything special to me but neither are they to other teams. Maybe Stewart figures it out or Jorge's pitching style will continue being successful in the majors.

[drjim]

I wouldn't say you are no fun, I'd say you answered the question...No, you would not trade any of them.

 

Btw, how do you acquire said blocked players (like Grossman, I assume).

Someone of lesser value than them, more org filler. Other kind of guy I would target is players who had prospect pedigree but have floundered over multiple seasons in the majors. And I wouldn't be in a hurry to dump Danny Santana like others

 

I'm not opposed to thinking of a bigger trade, just kind of a strange strategy to trade a good player (Dozier) for prospects and then turn around and trade different prospects to fill a hole created by Doziers departure.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Someone of lesser value than them, more org filler. Other kind of guy I would target is players who had prospect pedigree but have floundered over multiple seasons in the majors. And I wouldn't be in a hurry to dump Danny Santana like others

I'm not opposed to thinking of a bigger trade, just kind of a strange strategy to trade a good player (Dozier) for prospects and then turn around and trade different prospects to fill a hole created by Doziers departure.

 

When has DanSan ever been good in the minors? He had one fluky good year in the majors, other than that? He has no minor league track record indicating he'd be good. I don't get why anyone would want him. He can't hit, and he can't field, and he doesn't run well.....

 

Where did I suggest fill a hole based on Dozier's departure?

 

And, if you go from 5 to 7 SP prospects, you can now trade from depth, if you are so inclined.....

[drjim]

When has DanSan ever been good in the minors? He had one fluky good year in the majors, other than that? He has no minor league track record indicating he'd be good. I don't get why anyone would want him. He can't hit, and he can't field, and he doesn't run well.....

 

Where did I suggest fill a hole based on Dozier's departure?

 

And, if you go from 5 to 7 SP prospects, you can now trade from depth, if you are so inclined.....

If Dozier doesn't leave, why not just roll with him, Polanco and Sano. What are you trying to upgrade?

 

For Santana, I just don't like giving up on tools, especially pre-arb, who have also flashed some bat, even if it is babip fueled.

[Mike Sixel]

Why not roll with one of the worst players in all of MLB the last two years? For me, he offers nothing.

 

can't hit, can't field, can't run. If he could do one of those, I'd consider it....which is why i'd consider keeping Grossman around to PH.....

[drjim]

I'm not the biggest WAR guy, but Santana was on a 5 WAR pace in 14 and hit well in AAA in 15.

 

I would agree that he probably ends up as nothing, but I would give him another shot.

 

Speed, cannon arm, switch hitter, and some potential as a fielder.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think the premise here is off. I don't think they all have #3 ceilings.  Gonsalves, Jay, and Romero could all easily be better than ML average. I wouldn't write Stewart and Jorge off either, though the odds aren't as much in their favor anymore.

 

To answer the premise, would I trade one?  Certainly. If Kohl Stewart was what it would take to make a De Leon, Alvarez, Buehler deal possible for Dozier, I'd do it.  I'm not sure, however, that I'd be packaging anyone for any position other than a near ready high upside ML ready catcher that can fit into the current crop. I'd rather let them develop and keep the ones that succeed knowing that some will and some won't.

 

Now if the Twins were contenders, that would be a different story obviously.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm not the biggest WAR guy, but Santana was on a 5 WAR pace in 14 and hit well in AAA in 15.

I would agree that he probably ends up as nothing, but I would give him another shot.

Speed, cannon arm, switch hitter, and some potential as a fielder.

 

He swings both ways, but to call him a hitter would be an exaggeration, imo.

 

That speed? It doesn't translate on the basepaths or on defense. 

 

He is perplexing to me. He should be able to play OF defense and steal bases....and yet....

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

I'm not the biggest WAR guy, but Santana was on a 5 WAR pace in 14 and hit well in AAA in 15.

I would agree that he probably ends up as nothing, but I would give him another shot.

Speed, cannon arm, switch hitter, and some potential as a fielder.

If we could get a full year of 2014 Danny Santana's .319/.353/.472 (.824) production we would find a place to put him. He's bad in the field, but not Robbie Grossman bad.

 

I just don't think there is any evidence that he's going to hit like that again.

[DocBauer]

My immediate answer to the initial question is no, i wouldn't trade any of them at this time. Would I consider moving one of them if it meant making a deal with the Dodgers as mentioned above...and other places...probably.

 

But to me the absolute best thing the Twins can do right now is acquire additional assets/prospects to work with. In my over 40 years following baseball and the Twins, I have seen top prospect after top prospect washout completely or at least fail to live up to his hype and potential. I've also seen a lot of guys picked later in the draft turn out to be all star caliber players. {Dozier?} The drafting and signing and trading for young talent in baseball is the biggest crapshoot in all of sports. There are things to really like, and very much potential in all of them. And honestly, we have NO IDEA just who will make it, who won't, and just how good any of them will be.

 

You give me 5-7 solid young arms with potential, and I will almost guarantee one of them turns out to be a stud, one pretty to very good and one solid with the rest amounting to nothing...maybe a solid to good RP for one. You keep these 5, combine them with Berrios and Mejia, and at least 1 if not 2 similar stage/age prospects from the Dodgers and I bet you end up with what I just listed above. A little good fortune, you might even end up with another solid starter and a second quality RP. But having the numbers to work with are important.

 

[drivlikejehu]

It's highly academic since there is no chance of any of them being dealt in the foreseeable future. Teams just don't operate that way, on top of the fact that the Twins are desperate for pitching. Because fans overrate their team's prospects, there often appears to be a "surplus" when in fact there is a severe deficit. The Twins could easily wind up with 0 starting pitchers out of that group of 5. The Twins need all the potential they can get, so as to maximize the chances of realizing actual production in the Majors.

[TheLeviathan]

I think we all need to accept that the idea of Dozier plus some prospect is just not really on the table.  Those kinds of deals don't happen often (as noted earlier) and they are more of a video game approach.  It's just not how things work.

 

To answer the question in more of the realm of possibility: I don't deal any of them except in the situation in which we deal Dozier and have an opening at SS and we can acquire a glove-first young player.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not sure how it is academic when we see prospects traded for veterans all the time....

 

I do agree with the numbers thing... But the other side of the coin is, if prospects rarely work out, is there value in letting others take on the cost of risk?

 

Probably not, since it is hard to acquire elite players other than developing your own....

[mudcat14]

I can only see two scenario's where the Twins deal any of their better regarded pitching prospects.  First and least likely right now, would be to facilitate a return that could put us over the top in a pennant race.  Secondly would be where someone is moved as a change of scene when production doesn't live up to the tools.  Kind of like Alex Meyer.  The talent is there and had value to the Angels, but the Twins weren't bringing it out.