Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[Cory Engelhardt]

Well, if the Dodgers are offering 60 cents on the dollar now, maybe they'll offer 75 cents at the deadline so it would even out.

That is also hoping that the dodgers don't acquire a different 2nd baseman before that point

[Squirrel]

??

 

I thought my post was pretty benign. The few prior posts over the last day were referencing Heyman's report yesterday which seemed to questionAlvarez as a piece. DaveW has been unwavering about DeLeon + Alvarez + some 3rd and/or 4th piece. If he hasn't been unambiguous, that means he must have been ambiguous. I think that's 100% accurate. Do you not know what unambiguous means or are we just trying to be argumentative for arguments sake?

Oops, sorry. I read that wrong. Long day. I was thinking the opposite. Apologies.

[Otto von Ballpark]

That is also hoping that the dodgers don't acquire a different 2nd baseman before that point

Yup.

 

In 2016, the Dodgers were still in playoff position at the trade deadline, even with a stopgap second baseman. In fact, thanks to injuries, outfield and starting pitching were bigger needs for them at the deadline. That could happen again.

 

And of course, De Leon and or Stewart could be contributing to the MLB team by that point and no longer be on the table.

[drjim]

Yup.

 

In 2016, the Dodgers were still in playoff position at the trade deadline, even with a stopgap second baseman. In fact, thanks to injuries, outfield and starting pitching were bigger needs for them at the deadline. That could happen again.

 

And of course, De Leon and or Stewart could be contributing to the MLB team by that point and no longer be on the table.

The flip side is De Leon could have his shoulder injury flare up, Stewart living up to his 4/5 billing, Dozier having another solid season and a couple other teams with 2b needs. Not all that likely, but a worthwhile gamble if they aren't getting the offer they want.

 

I prefer a trade and agree this is the best time to move Dozier, but I do support not making a move if they don't get the offer they want.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The flip side is De Leon could have his shoulder injury flare up, Stewart living up to his 4/5 billing, Dozier having another solid season and a couple other teams with 2b needs. Not all that likely, but a worthwhile gamble if they aren't getting the offer they want.

I'm not sure that is the "flip side" -- De Leon and Stewart scuffling would probably make the Dodgers even more committed to holding onto their other pitchig prospects, no? So you might still get offered De Leon and Stewart as key pieces -- but you just wouldn't want them as much! Maybe they add in Calhoun at that point?

 

I don't see a likely path toward improving the return.

[Otto von Ballpark]

At this point, I would need really specific red flags to ultimately turn down De Leon and Stewart. I mean, De Leon is the #30ish prospect in the game, A-/B+ by Sickels, and Stewart is a fast rising B at the moment. And both are immediately MLB ready.

 

Heck, for all the talk about what if Dozier repeats his 2016 season -- if Stewart repeats his, he's probably untouchable by July too.

 

It seems like a pretty big risk to wait and try for something better in July, or to hope for contention in 2017-2018.

[AZTwin]

I'm not sure that is the "flip side" -- De Leon and Stewart scuffling would probably make the Dodgers even more committed to holding onto their other pitchig prospects, no? So you might still get offered De Leon and Stewart as key pieces -- but you just wouldn't want them as much! Maybe they add in Calhoun at that point?

 

I don't see a likely path toward improving the return.

So dozier can lose value but their prospects can't? Lol classic. To make a trade solely to make a trade is foolish. No GM in their right mind would do such a thing. Would I like dozier traded? Sure, but if the value isn't there then it isn't there. I'm perfectly good with going into the season with another star on our team.

[AZTwin]

At this point, I would need really specific red flags to ultimately turn down De Leon and Stewart. I mean, De Leon is the #30ish prospect in the game, A-/B+ by Sickels, and Stewart is a fast rising B at the moment. And both are immediately MLB ready.

 

Heck, for all the talk about what if Dozier repeats his 2016 season -- if Stewart repeats his, he's probably untouchable by July too.

 

It seems like a pretty big risk to wait and try for something better in July, or to hope for contention in 2017-2018.

A 26 year old prospect isn't going to be untouchable. Giving away dozier for just those two would be as foolish as the blue jays giving us Shannon Stewart straight up for Bobby kielty.

[markos]

 

Yup.

In 2016, the Dodgers were still in playoff position at the trade deadline, even with a stopgap second baseman. In fact, thanks to injuries, outfield and starting pitching were bigger needs for them at the deadline. That could happen again.

And of course, De Leon and or Stewart could be contributing to the MLB team by that point and no longer be on the table.

This is part of the problem. The Dodgers are certainly in good enough shape with their current roster that they can sign a stopgap 2B right now (ex. bring back Utley or add Stephen Drew) and just wait until July to re-evaluate their needs. If the Dodgers are out of contention in July, so much has gone wrong for the team that the decision about Dozier wouldn't have mattered one way or the other. 

 

 

[doscinco]

A 26 year old prospect isn't going to be untouchable. Giving away dozier for just those two would be as foolish as the blue jays giving us Shannon Stewart straight up for Bobby kielty.

Some of you guys need to use context when looking at a prospect stats and age. First of all, next season will be his age 25 season. There's also the fact that he started pitching in 2013. In terms of the recorded starting pitcher fastball velocity in 2016 (min. 20 innings), Stewart is in the the 90th percentile. BA was throwing out Jacob DeGrom comps in the middle of the year for him. He's a late boomer with at least 2 big league pitches. This is exactly the type of the starters the Twins need.

[AZTwin]

Some of you guys need to use context when looking at a prospect stats and age. First of all, next season will be his age 25 season. There's also the fact that he started pitching in 2013. In terms of the recorded starting pitcher fastball velocity in 2016 (min. 20 innings), Stewart is in the the 90th percentile. BA was throwing out Jacob DeGrom comps in the middle of the year for him. He's a late boomer with at least 2 big league pitches. This is exactly the type of the starters the Twins need.

He's fine as a 3rd or 4th piece. If the dodgers value him so highly I'm sure they would be on board with keeping him

[doscinco]

He's fine as a 3rd or 4th piece. If the dodgers value him so highly I'm sure they would be on board with keeping him

If this is your attitude, you wouldnt be satisfied if the return included Bellinger.

[markos]

 

At this point, I would need really specific red flags to ultimately turn down De Leon and Stewart. I mean, De Leon is the #30ish prospect in the game, A-/B+ by Sickels, and Stewart is a fast rising B at the moment. And both are immediately MLB ready.

Heck, for all the talk about what if Dozier repeats his 2016 season -- if Stewart repeats his, he's probably untouchable by July too.

It seems like a pretty big risk to wait and try for something better in July, or to hope for contention in 2017-2018.

Yes. It really comes down to how one values De Leon and Stewart. And right now all of us amateurs are kind of flying blind, as most of the big prospect analysts have yet to chime in on the Dodgers system in particular or released their top-100 lists for the year. So it is hard to know exactly how concerned they are with De Leon's health and how optimistic they are about Stewart. 

 

Right now, I'm cautiously optimistic about De Leon, and like you think he is a top-30, maybe top-20 overall prospect, and maybe a top-5 pitcher. I'm very optimistic (probably overly optimistic) about Stewart. I think a De Leon-Stewart-<something> package compares reasonably well to the packages received for Gomez, Lucroy (both the Texas deal and rejected Cleveland deal), and Donaldson, particularly when you factor in the other players included with Gomez and Lucroy. I think it is light compared to the Eaton deal, but a lot depends on how one values his significantly better contract. I think De Leon-Buehler-<something> is on par with the Eaton deal. And I think an De Leon-Alvarez deal blows them all out of the water.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I offhand mentioned it earlier, but if the Dodgers won't meet the price, what if the Twins extended Dozier?

 

Would adding 3/60 to the current contract be enough?

 

Would time out nicely, big money kicks in when Mauer comes off the books and contract would end right when Sano and Buxton hit their free agent years and would theoretically start to get expensive. Opens a nice 5 year window if they can sort out their pitching.

Interesting idea. I do wonder what Dozier's price would be, but I can't say I'd be too enthusiastic about this even if he was willing.

 

As you hint at with the "if they can sort out their pitching" qualifier, it wouldn't really be a 5 year window. Assuming the pitching isn't sorted overnight, at best it would be 4 and more likely 3. And it would be harder to sort without an influx of assets like De Leon and Stewart. And I'm not sure that an unproven/untested Polanco brings back much in that regard at this point -- would he be mostly a wasted asset in this scenario?

 

And if you think Dozier's career path so far leaves some uncertainty about 2017, what would it say about 2019-2021 right now? Not just offensively, but also defensively?

 

I think I'd rather get a few pitching assets in exchange for Dozier now, make good use of the cheap Polanco, and leave that $60 mil to be invested elsewhere as needed.

[Otto von Ballpark]

A 26 year old prospect isn't going to be untouchable. Giving away dozier for just those two would be as foolish as the blue jays giving us Shannon Stewart straight up for Bobby kielty.

If Stewart is performing well in MLB by July, they might not be interesting in subtracting him from the MLB roster to upgrade second base.

 

And you lost me on the Shannon Stewart thing. The Jays were stupid for that? Stewart was a rental (and within a year or two of the end of his effective career), the Jays were going nowhere. And Kielty circa 2003 isn't remotely comparable to De Leon either.

[Otto von Ballpark]

So dozier can lose value but their prospects can't? Lol classic. To make a trade solely to make a trade is foolish. No GM in their right mind would do such a thing. Would I like dozier traded? Sure, but if the value isn't there then it isn't there. I'm perfectly good with going into the season with another star on our team.

Of course their prospects can lose value. But just because some prospects lose value, it doesn't mean the Dodgers will automatically part with better prospects -- in fact, the opposite may be true (the other prospects importance and thus value to the Dodgers will only increase).

 

And please let's put to rest this "make a trade just to make a trade" nonsense. By most unbiased observers, a package led be De Leon and Stewart is very good, even if it's not as high as some of us would like.

 

If you or the Twins can't see any value in that, then I fear we are setting our standards unrealistically high and we will miss a lot of realistic opportunities to improve this club. (I think TR fell into this trap a bit, waiting for the perfect deal that never comes and passing up some good ones in the process.)

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think a De Leon-Stewart-<something> package compares reasonably well to the packages received for Gomez, Lucroy (both the Texas deal and rejected Cleveland deal), and Donaldson

Great post, but I would be careful about invoking the Donaldson deal or you are going to scare a lot of people here! I think a De Leon-Stewart-<something> package absolutely trumps the package that Oakland received, relative to the assets sent in return (Donaldson being more valuable than Dozier).

[Riverbrian]

 

Well, I'm the low guy on De Leon here.  I'm terrified of pitchers linked to shoulder soreness.  I don't know what a fair value for Dozier is but I think it's a lot closer to the return the Brewers got for Gomez/Fiers.  

 

But if the FO doesn't get a fair offer for him, they can keep him and try and trade him later, if need be.  i don't see the point of trading Dozier simply because he'll be gone in two years.  We don't have to punt on next season for a start and moving him just to move him makes us worse, not better.  

 

Agree with you completely. 

 

I'll add before the Gomez/Fiers deal with the Astros... Gomez was shipped to the Mets in a deal involving Zach Wheeler who was the 6th rated prospect in 2012 and enough innings to show he was indeed a major league caliber pitcher. 

 

Gomez was also 29 years old

 

Gomez was 1.5 years from free agency and with about the same amount of dollars coming his way.

 

Gomez had an OPS of .751 at the time of the trade and that number was nearly a .100 point drop. 

 

The Dodgers need to get serious or watch Falvey/Levine Walk Away. I'd rather watch us choke on Dozier before letting the Dodgers get him for the prospects they are comfortable letting go because we have a new front office in some sort of pitching panic. 

 

 

[drjim]

Interesting idea. I do wonder what Dozier's price would be, but I can't say I'd be too enthusiastic about this even if he was willing.

 

As you hint at with the "if they can sort out their pitching" qualifier, it wouldn't really be a 5 year window. Assuming the pitching isn't sorted overnight, at best it would be 4 and more likely 3. And it would be harder to sort without an influx of assets like De Leon and Stewart. And I'm not sure that an unproven/untested Polanco brings back much in that regard at this point -- would he be mostly a wasted asset in this scenario?

 

And if you think Dozier's career path so far leaves some uncertainty about 2017, what would it say about 2019-2021 right now? Not just offensively, but also defensively?

 

I think I'd rather get a few pitching assets in exchange for Dozier now, make good use of the cheap Polanco, and leave that $60 mil to be invested elsewhere as needed.

I basically agree with you, I was more thinking of alternatives if the asking price for Dozier isn't met. I especially think it would take some really good fortune or impressive moves to solve the pitching. The Twins might have more there now than last year showed, but they are still obviously a ways away.

 

The other thing I would say is that while there is always risk, I would feel pretty good about investing in Dozier for the next 5 years. Even if he can't stick at 2b, I think he could slide to 3b once Sano moves. I wouldn't be too quick to move Polanco if he can handle ss in the short term (though I'm skeptical).

 

The best move is still to trade Dozier, but I wouldn't settle. There are alternatives.

[drjim]

Agree with you completely.

 

I'll add before the Gomez/Fiers deal with the Astros... Gomez was shipped to the Mets in a deal involving Zach Wheeler who was the 6th rated prospect in 2012 and enough innings to show he was indeed a major league caliber pitcher.

 

Gomez was also 29 years old

 

Gomez was 1.5 years from free agency and with about the same amount of dollars coming his way.

 

Gomez had an OPS of .751 at the time of the trade and that number was nearly a .100 point drop.

 

The Dodgers need to get serious or watch Falvey/Levine Walk Away. I'd rather watch us choke on Dozier before letting the Dodgers get him for the prospects they are comfortable letting go because we have a new front office in some sort of pitching panic.

I generally agree with this too. I think Dozier will be worth at least a De Leon level prospect at the deadline even if he slides back slightly from his pace last year. There might be some loss of value of secondary pieces, but if the Dodgers are balking at that now, what difference would it make to wait?

 

Though if Dave's source is right, does seem the Twins should ultimately take it even if they can't get the 3rd piece they want.

[TheLeviathan]

Dozier's arm didn't play well at short, I doubt it plays well at third.  

[Riverbrian]

 

I generally agree with this too. I think Dozier will be worth at least a De Leon level prospect at the deadline even if he slides back slightly from his pace last year. There might be some loss of value of secondary pieces, but if the Dodgers are balking at that now, what difference would it make to wait?

Though if Dave's source is right, does seem the Twins should ultimately take it even if they can't get the 3rd piece they want.

 

The landscape will change by the deadline. Pedroia could be hurt... Walker might be hitting .210... Baker may convince the Nats Front Office that Murphy needs to move to 1st Base because between Zimmerman and Murphy too many balls are getting into right field... The Rays may shock the world with that pitching staff returning to form and suddenly realize that they need immediate offense to hold off the rest of the American League East. 

 

 

[Riverbrian]

 

I basically agree with you, I was more thinking of alternatives if the asking price for Dozier isn't met. I especially think it would take some really good fortune or impressive moves to solve the pitching. The Twins might have more there now than last year showed, but they are still obviously a ways away.

The other thing I would say is that while there is always risk, I would feel pretty good about investing in Dozier for the next 5 years. Even if he can't stick at 2b, I think he could slide to 3b once Sano moves. I wouldn't be too quick to move Polanco if he can handle ss in the short term (though I'm skeptical).

The best move is still to trade Dozier, but I wouldn't settle. There are alternatives.

 

Perfectly logical post in my opinion. 

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

To those advocating holding on to Dozier for a possible deadline deal: have there been any recent trade deadline returns that are notably better than an objectively considered De Leon-Stewart-<something> package?

 

1.5 years of David Price, the $210 mil ace, fetched 4 arb seasons of Drew Smyly, a scuffling Nick Franklin, and Willy Adames on his way to cracking his first top 100 list. (And Price had more value under the old qualifying offer system too.)

 

4.5 years of Hamels, plus a good controlled reliever in Diekman, primarily fetched Thompson, Williams, and Alfaro for the Phillies. All interesting prospects, but tending toward the bottom half of the top 100 with question marks too.

 

And those were for ace pitchers. Position players seem even less necessary deadline additions. Off the top of my head, recent deadline deals, even blockbusters, wouldn't really blow a De Leon-Stewart-<something> package out of the water.

 

There is not a ton of potential upside to waiting. History suggests you are not getting a Urias at the deadline, you are not likely getting a De Leon plus a Bellinger either.

[TheLeviathan]

Trade deadlines seem to be all about pitching the last 5 years or so.  I think holding out for the deadline is a mistake.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Agree with you completely.

 

I'll add before the Gomez/Fiers deal with the Astros... Gomez was shipped to the Mets in a deal involving Zach Wheeler who was the 6th rated prospect in 2012 and enough innings to show he was indeed a major league caliber pitcher.

 

Gomez was also 29 years old

 

Gomez was 1.5 years from free agency and with about the same amount of dollars coming his way.

 

Gomez had an OPS of .751 at the time of the trade and that number was nearly a .100 point drop.

 

The Dodgers need to get serious or watch Falvey/Levine Walk Away. I'd rather watch us choke on Dozier before letting the Dodgers get him for the prospects they are comfortable letting go because we have a new front office in some sort of pitching panic.

Zack Wheeler was 25 years old with a career 100 ERA+ and in the middle of recovering from TJ surgery (and looking at only ~4 years of team control left when he returned, at best) when that trade fell through.

 

The other piece from the Mets, Wilmer Flores, was in the midst of a career-best 0.8 bWAR season and likewise looking at only 4 years of control remaining (3 of those being at arbitration salaries, of course).

 

It's a real stretch to say that those two for Gomez then would have been a notably better deal than De Leon plus Stewart for Dozier now.

[darin617]

 

De Leon could blow up and regress to his mean too. Maybe then we wouldn't even want him. And the person arguing that dozier doesn't sell tickets or merchandise, just lol. Yes he does. Any player contributes to that

 

Sell tickets? Now that is priceless! So if the Twins keep Dozier they still won't crack 2 million. This team needs more than 1 star to bring up attendance. It will be another rough year but if they get lucky in a trade they could get a few more pieces to help.

[AZTwin]

I guess I'm not high on either del Leon or Stewart. Besides Dave says it's Alvarez so why all this talk about him being off the table? Seems like only dodger fans would be saying that

[Otto von Ballpark]

The landscape will change by the deadline. Pedroia could be hurt... Walker might be hitting .210... Baker may convince the Nats Front Office that Murphy needs to move to 1st Base because between Zimmerman and Murphy too many balls are getting into right field... The Rays may shock the world with that pitching staff returning to form and suddenly realize that they need immediate offense to hold off the rest of the American League East.

And Boston and Washington would struggle to match De Leon + Stewart given their depleted farm systems.

 

I don't know much about Tampa's system presently, but the idea that they would be buyers at that level, at that position with Forsythe already under contract, seems like a pretty big stretch. Probably even less likely than the 103 loss Twins rebounding to contention in 2017.

[darin617]

 

So dozier can lose value but their prospects can't? Lol classic. To make a trade solely to make a trade is foolish. No GM in their right mind would do such a thing. Would I like dozier traded? Sure, but if the value isn't there then it isn't there. I'm perfectly good with going into the season with another star on our team.

 

If the prospects are putting up good numbers in the minors they will either maintain or boost their value.  Dozier would need to go bananas to have a higher value than right now. Also, there are only a few teams now that need a 2nd baseman. The season starts the Dodgers will have either made a different trade or stayed in house. Must trade now to get peak value.