Heyman: Twins asked about Santana

[nicksaviking]

thanks. I hope Texas gets nothing for Profar and he's a bust.

My money is on wish granted.

[Thrylos]

 

Twins to get: De Leon, Bellinger, Stewart, Ross Stripling, Dalton Pompey and Sean Reid Foley

Dodgers to get: Dozier, Danny Barnes, TJ Zeuch and Vlad Guerrero Jr.

Blue Jays to get: Santana, Eddie Rosario and Puig

 

I wasted a lot of time working on this don't tell me how terrible it is!

 

There is an issue with this:  All but Reid-Foley need 40 man spots and the Twins do not have enough to make this happen.  -2 based on this.

 

So you'd have to add Danny Santana and Mike Tonkin to balance it

 

 

[jud6312]

 

There is an issue with this:  All but Reid-Foley need 40 man spots and the Twins do not have enough to make this happen.  -2 based on this.

 

So you'd have to add Danny Santana and Mike Tonkin to balance it

I think any team trading for any Twins asset should be forced to take DanSan, too.

[gunnarthor]

I love the idea of adding Profar although I'm not sure what an even trade would look like.  Texas would want a strong return of course.  Is a stable reliable pitcher like Santana enough?  I'm not sure.  But Levine would have a pretty good idea of Profar's abilities going forward. 

 

But Profar would be a great addition, I think.

[jimmer]

 

My money is on wish granted.

I think if they are asking a lot for him, they'll definitely never trade him.

[Thrylos]

 

Yeah, who'd want a 24-year-old top prospect for far less than he'd usually cost because he's been hurt?

 

That's part of the issue here.  It is his dominant shoulder.  Nobody knows whether he can hit as well or throw as well as when he was a top prospect.

 

Would you take a flyer on Perkins, as is? 

[gunnarthor]

 

That's part of the issue here.  It is his dominant shoulder.  Nobody knows whether he can hit as well or throw as well as when he was a top prospect.

 

Would you take a flyer on Perkins, as is? 

Unless he got hurt again, didn't we just see a (more or less) full season of Profar?  His numbers in AAA were good and even in the majors his k/bb ratios were all right. 

[drjim]

The question for Profar is whether he will rebound, not whether he can play. This is why he can potentially be had.

 

The question for Perkins is whether he can actually pitch.

[Thrylos]

 

Unless he got hurt again, didn't we just see a (more or less) full season of Profar?  His numbers in AAA were good and even in the majors his k/bb ratios were all right. 

 

.239/.321/.338, average defense, outside PCL...  Cannot really use PCL numbers to make an argument regarding risk.    Also huge drop in both power and speed numbers since he was a top prospect.

Remember, Delmon was number 1 as well...

[darin617]

 

Hot take alert: move Ervin to Texas with whatever else it'll take for Jurickson Profar. 

 

What makes Jurickson Profar so great? Sure, he was a top prospect but has not performed in the majors. From what I recall I think I read that Texas is going to possibly use him in a platoon at 1st base. I would have to pass and would rather go with our current options at short and only trade Santana if we got back a better piece than Profar. Hold onto Santana and deal him in July to a desperate team.

[kab21]

Let's just dismiss this Profar talk when dreaming up a Ervin trade.

 

The return that I would be targeting would be a borderline top 100 prospect at any position. Obviously a starting pitcher would be great but I wouldn't be choosy. Someone along the lines of Adalberto Mejia or Stephen Gonsalves. Even better would be to get a 2nd lottery ticket type in the low minors.

Is this about where people are valuing Ervin?

[zchrz]

 

Let's just dismiss this Profar talk when dreaming up a Ervin trade.

 

The return that I would be targeting would be a borderline top 100 prospect at any position. Obviously a starting pitcher would be great but I wouldn't be choosy. Someone along the lines of Adalberto Mejia or Stephen Gonsalves. Even better would be to get a 2nd lottery ticket type in the low minors.

Is this about where people are valuing Ervin?

Maybe I am not valuing them right but isn't there a decent gap between Mejia and Gonsalves in value?  Mejia is closer but Gonsalves has way more ceiling.

[kab21]

 

Maybe I am not valuing them right but isn't there a decent gap between Mejia and Gonsalves in value?  Mejia is closer but Gonsalves has way more ceiling.

Consider Gonsalves as the high point and Mejia as the low point then.

And I think you are seeing separation on Twins prospect lists but where do these two fall on overall lists. Wouldn't Gonsalves be in the top 60-80 range tops? And Mejia would be in the 100-120 range? 

[jimmer]

 

Consider Gonsalves as the high point and Mejia as the low point then.

And I think you are seeing separation on Twins prospect lists but where do these two fall on overall lists. Wouldn't Gonsalves be in the top 60-80 range tops? And Mejia would be in the 100-120 range? 

Fangraphs has Mejia as Twins #5 prospect and Gonsalvez as #3.

 

 

[drjim]

 

Consider Gonsalves as the high point and Mejia as the low point then.

And I think you are seeing separation on Twins prospect lists but where do these two fall on overall lists. Wouldn't Gonsalves be in the top 60-80 range tops? And Mejia would be in the 100-120 range? 

 

If that's all you're getting for Santana, I wouldn't move him right now.

 

I wouldn't be in a hurry to move him anyways, if he stays healthy he'll have more value in July.

[kab21]

 

If that's all you're getting for Santana, I wouldn't move him right now.

 

I wouldn't be in a hurry to move him anyways, if he stays healthy he'll have more value in July.

That's a medium sized if for a 34 yr that went the R&R route with an elbow strain. I can't see teams at any point sending the Twins a top 50 prospect for Ervin. Getting a top 75-100 prospect now seems like a good get to me.

[drjim]

That's a medium sized if for a 34 yr that went the R&R route with an elbow strain. I can't see teams at any point sending the Twins a top 50 prospect for Ervin. Getting a top 75-100 prospect now seems like a good get to me.

Agree that there is risk in holding him. I would just want something different than a mid-rotation AA arm. They have enough of those (assuming the Dozier trade happens).

[kab21]

 

Agree that there is risk in holding him. I would just want something different than a mid-rotation AA arm. They have enough of those (assuming the Dozier trade happens).

Ervin is just a mid rotation arm.

And I will not say that the Twins have too many good pitchers (mid rotation guys) until they are actually up and proven. I am not sure it is possible to have too many at this point.

[drjim]

Ervin is just a mid rotation arm.

 

And I will not say that the Twins have too many good pitchers (mid rotation guys) until they are actually up and proven. I am not sure it is possible to have too many at this point.

Yes, but he provides value now. For me it would be taking the risk of better return at midseason or even the small chance that the team would be a fringe contender behind him as being worth more than that type of return now.

[mudcat14]

I really like the idea of trading Santana for an A-list prospect, like Sean Reid-Foley.  The Twins could then afford to roll the dice on Brandon McCarthy and the $20mil owed to him in hopes of convincing the Dodgers to sweeten their deal.  With the savings from Dozier & Santana's salaries, the Twins would still be $35mil ahead and have a stockpile of very good young arms.

[Brandon Warne]

 

What makes Jurickson Profar so great? Sure, he was a top prospect but has not performed in the majors. From what I recall I think I read that Texas is going to possibly use him in a platoon at 1st base. I would have to pass and would rather go with our current options at short and only trade Santana if we got back a better piece than Profar. Hold onto Santana and deal him in July to a desperate team.

 

He's young, plays short and has big league success. He's still very well regarded in the prospect community.

[Brandon Warne]

 

That's part of the issue here.  It is his dominant shoulder.  Nobody knows whether he can hit as well or throw as well as when he was a top prospect.

 

Would you take a flyer on Perkins, as is? 

 

No, but Perkins also throws for a living and is in his mid-30s. I'd be putting Profar through a physical, too.

[twins_89]

 

What makes Jurickson Profar so great? Sure, he was a top prospect but has not performed in the majors. From what I recall I think I read that Texas is going to possibly use him in a platoon at 1st base. I would have to pass and would rather go with our current options at short and only trade Santana if we got back a better piece than Profar. Hold onto Santana and deal him in July to a desperate team.

 

At this point I don't think anyone knows what Profar is going to be, is he same player that was the #1 prospect in baseball or have the injuries and missed time diminished his abilities. It's this question that makes him a great target for the Twins. Next season Minnesota isn't likely to be in the playoff hunt so it's an ideal time to make some high-risk high-reward type moves. The only question is how much do the Rangers currently value Profar, if Ervin Santana can be the basis for a deal the Twins should make the move.

[jimmer]

Hasn't been in thee top 100 prospects since 2013 and probably won't qualify this year.

[drjim]

Hasn't been in thee top 100 prospects since 2013 and probably won't qualify this year.

Profar? He hasn't been eligible for a prospect list since 2013.

 

One downside of Profar is he's accrued so much service time while on the dl, so I think he only has 2 years of control left. Might be 3.

[jimmer]

 

Profar? He hasn't been eligible for a prospect list since 2013.

One downside of Profar is he's accrued so much service time while on the dl, so I think he only has 2 years of control left. Might be 3.

why? doh, never-mind.  complete missed the years.  so bad.  thanks.

 

FA in 2020

[darin617]

 

He's young, plays short and has big league success. He's still very well regarded in the prospect community.

 

I must be missing something here. When did he have big league success? To be honest look at his minor league numbers and tell me when he had success. Sure, he was rated #1 prospect back in 2013 but so was Delmon Young. Throw in his history with shoulder issues and I would pass.

[nicksaviking]

Even before his injury, I always thought Profar's status as top prospect was inflated due to all too common over-valuation of shortstops. His bat looked OK but it wasn't eye-popping, everyone needed to believe in a new special shortstop and he was what was available. His numbers never compared to the new crop of elite young shortstops that have come around since his star faded.

[The Wise One]

 

Let's just dismiss this Profar talk when dreaming up a Ervin trade.

 

The return that I would be targeting would be a borderline top 100 prospect at any position. Obviously a starting pitcher would be great but I wouldn't be choosy. Someone along the lines of Adalberto Mejia or Stephen Gonsalves. Even better would be to get a 2nd lottery ticket type in the low minors.

Is this about where people are valuing Ervin?

If you are talking about a player that peaks as less than a top 100 player, why would you want to take a player that has a low chance for success for a player who has been fairly consistent about having some success who really does not cost much?

[The Wise One]

 

That's a medium sized if for a 34 yr that went the R&R route with an elbow strain. I can't see teams at any point sending the Twins a top 50 prospect for Ervin. Getting a top 75-100 prospect now seems like a good get to me.

last year only 20 pitcher pitched every 5th game for the whole season. That Santana was a worthless bum and pitched in a mediocre number of games (30) should not be held against him since only 45 starting pitchers did better than his measly 30 games.