Eaton to the Nationals for Giolito and more

[Seth Stohs]

Again, I encourage people to discuss transactions and rumors and such in the daily Winter Meetings thread, but this one is so crazy, I'm giving it it's own thread.

 

The White Sox just traded outfielder Adam Eaton to the Washington Nationals for Lucas Giolito (The top pitching prospect in baseball), Dane Dunning (Nationals #6 prospect) and Reynaldo Lopez (the Nats #3 prospect). 

 

Prospect rankings by MLB.com, but others would be similar. 

 

For Adam Eaton?! What am I missing?

[Squirrel]

All I can say to that is !!!!

[zenser]

If you would have told me yesterday that the Sox and Nats made a trade and the Sox got this return back, I would have said they traded Sale.  I would have never guessed Adam Eaton would produce this return.

[Vanimal46]

As an outsider, I'm wondering why the Nationals were hell-bent on trading Giolito this off-season? Do they know something that we don't? 

Eaton was a 6 WAR player last year who can play all OF positions, top of the order hitter, and signed for the next 5 years. There's a lot of value in that. 

[laloesch]

 

As an outsider, I'm wondering why the Nationals were hell-bent on trading Giolito this off-season? Do they know something that we don't? 

Eaton was a 6 WAR player last year who can play all OF positions, top of the order hitter, and signed for the next 5 years. There's a lot of value in that. 

 

 

It does seem suspicious.   I wonder if he's having trouble with his UCL again. 

[Willihammer]

Thought I read on FG that Giolito's velo last year dipped.

 

If you have one TJS, you are more likely than other pitchers to require another TJS. There is also a thought (not sure if there's any evidence for it) that TJS repaired elbows have something like an 8 year expiration, on average. Giolito had TJS way back in 2012.

[Willihammer]

Also, Eaton is sort of a poor man's Brett Gardner. Way above average defense in the corner. Good OBP, decent pop. 

 

I know we're not supposed to use WAR but he was worth many of them last year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The Nats were pushing Giolito this past summer too.

[Monkeypaws]

Wait, what, huh?!

 

Stop rebuilding brilliantly White Sox dammit.

[Willihammer]

From Jeff Sullivan the other day:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/why-the-nationals-would-trade-lucas-giolito/

 

 

 

Giolito did get strikeouts in the upper minors. He didn’t get a lot of strikeouts in the upper minors, and his location continues to come and go. The hype has consistently exceeded the output. And now there are even concerns about the quality of the repertoire.

The prized curveball still has plenty of depth, but Giolito wasn’t spotting it well with the Nationals. The changeup is a distant third pitch, and while Giolito used to get his fastball close to triple digits, it just spent the bulk of its time around 93 – 94. For a four-seamer, it was flat, and Statcast didn’t yield an encouraging spin rate. There is no two-seamer complement. The four-seamer is the fastball, and it wasn’t a good primary pitch. It has to be better, and it could get better, but this was supposed to be the carrying tool.

 

[Willihammer]

Still no catcher for the Sox. Speculation was they were looking to upgrade there.

 

Now that we have Castro for the forseeable future, I wonder if Garver would get their attention in a Quintana deal. Not as a centerpiece obviously but just to get the ball rolling.

[biggentleben]

I never got to publish it, but my Nationals top 10 had Giolito 3rd behind Lopez (and Robles). I think they've come out strong to say they want to hold onto Robles and Soto, which were two guys that the Pirates were targeting hard in McCutchen talks and that the ChiSox were insisting on in Sale talks.

[jimmer]

 

Still no catcher for the Sox. Speculation was they were looking to upgrade there.

 

Now that we have Castro for the forseeable future, I wonder if Garver would get their attention in a Quintana deal. Not as a centerpiece obviously but just to get the ball rolling.

It'd take quite a bit to get him, I believe.

[biggentleben]

 

It'd take quite a bit to get him, I believe.

 

From a Braves source, if Sale's value was 80-grade on the 20-to-80 scouting scale, the ask on Quintana was 79, when the Braves were willing to go 70. The Braves wanted a lefty and have the guys to make a big deal happen, but they've filled that with Garcia now.

[jimmer]

 

From a Braves source, if Sale's value was 80-grade on the 20-to-80 scouting scale, the ask on Quintana was 79, when the Braves were willing to go 70. The Braves wanted a lefty and have the guys to make a big deal happen, but they've filled that with Garcia now.

Quintana is pretty under-rated.  The way Carrasco is in Cleveland (except Quintana has a longer track record).  I'm not 100% sure I wouldn't rather have him at four years/38M  than three years/38M of Sale.  

[biggentleben]

 

Quintana is pretty under-rated.  The way Carrasco is in Cleveland (except Quintana has a longer track record).  I'm not 100% sure I wouldn't rather have him at four years/38M  than three years/38M of Sale.  

 

Absolutely he's underrated, but I'd consider him among the 30-40 best starters in the game right now. I'd consider Sale among the 5-10. While that's not a drastic difference, it's still bigger than it sounded like the difference in trade demands were.

[jimmer]

 

Absolutely he's underrated, but I'd consider him among the 30-40 best starters in the game right now. I'd consider Sale among the 5-10. While that's not a drastic difference, it's still bigger than it sounded like the difference in trade demands were.

This year, Sale was 7th in WAR for MLB pitchers.  Quintana was 10th.

In last two years, Sale 3rd, Quintana 10th.

In the last three years, Sale is 5th, Quintana 8th.

[biggentleben]

 

This year, Sale was 7th in WAR for MLB pitchers.  Quintana was 10th.

In last two years, Sale 3rd, Quintana 10th.

In the last three years, Sale is 5th, Quintana 8th.

 

Okay,not arguing the WAR point. I'm talking in pure stuff, in scouting them. Also, which WAR do you use...because that makes a big difference in the Quintana argument, interestingly enough.

 

Once again, not down playing the guy whatsoever, but still not paying Dansby Swanson for him.

[Wookiee of the Year]

 

Thought I read on FG that Giolito's velo last year dipped.

 

If you have one TJS, you are more likely than other pitchers to require another TJS. There is also a thought (not sure if there's any evidence for it) that TJS repaired elbows have something like an 8 year expiration, on average. Giolito had TJS way back in 2012.

I'd heard speculation that the Nationals were okay with Jordan Zimmermann leaving via free agency because of that "8 year expiration" on Tommy John-repaired elbows... but then the Nats signed Stephen Strasburg to a 7 year extension, which would carry him 5 years past that alleged expiration date. So who knows?

[jimmer]

 

Okay,not arguing the WAR point. I'm talking in pure stuff, in scouting them. Also, which WAR do you use...because that makes a big difference in the Quintana argument, interestingly enough.

 

Once again, not down playing the guy whatsoever, but still not paying Dansby Swanson for him.

I use Fangraphs because they go by FIP which takes fielding out of the equation.

[Mike Sixel]

If Gioloto works out, the Sox just passed the Twins in the rebuild speed, and they still have Quintana for 5 years......

[Vanimal46]

Chris Mitchell of Fangraphs wrote an article "Projecting the Prospects in the Eaton Trade" 

They're projecting that Giolito is not elite, and Lopez isn't that great either. 

[nicksaviking]

 

Chris Mitchell of Fangraphs wrote an article "Projecting the Prospects in the Eaton Trade" 

They're projecting that Giolito is not elite, and Lopez isn't that great either. 

 

Fingers crossed, with guilt. I don't want to cheer against a player fulfilling his expectations but geez, does it have to be the White Sox? Similar guilt tinged hope against Moncada and Kopich.

[jimmer]

I think that what the White Sox got for Eaton is about right.

[Mike Sixel]

Dave Cameron addressed this some in chat yesterday.....

 

KLAW's bias is stuff over production

 

Fangraphs (not everyone, but most of them) is production over stuff.

 

Hence the disagreement sometimes on trades and prospects.

 

That said, I don't know where their prospects' guy sits on that spectrum....

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Chris Mitchell of Fangraphs wrote an article "Projecting the Prospects in the Eaton Trade" 

They're projecting that Giolito is not elite, and Lopez isn't that great either. 

That sounds about right.  I think there are enough red flags about these guys (and their Red Sox haul) to temper expectations a bit.  Moncada and Giolito may be the #1 and #3 prospects right now, but it feels a little bit like they are getting those rankings or holding onto them by default, rather than being truly comparable to some other recent top guys.

 

Not that it necessarily makes them bad trades for the White Sox, but I don't think they robbed the Red Sox and Nationals here either.

[jimmer]

Dave Cameron addressed this some in chat yesterday.....

 

KLAW's bias is stuff over production

 

Fangraphs (not everyone, but most of them) is production over stuff.

 

Hence the disagreement sometimes on trades and prospects.

 

That said, I don't know where their prospects' guy sits on that spectrum....

about the Eaton trade, Dave cameron tweeted that Mike Rizzo (nats GM), who has a reputation as an old school scout, just mentioned WAR, asset allocation, controllable years and below market value.

[Mike Sixel]

 

about the Eaton trade, Dave cameron tweeted that Mike Rizzo (nats GM), who has a reputation as anbold school scout, just mentioned WAR, asset allocation, controllable years and below market value.

 

so, freakonomics and SABR continue to spread everywhere in teh world except US politics.....

[TheLeviathan]

This will certainly be an interesting trade to follow the next few years.

 

My money is on the Sox looking really good out of this deal in about two years.

[Mike Sixel]

 

This will certainly be an interesting trade to follow the next few years.

 

My money is on the Sox looking really good out of this deal in about two years.

 

KLAW points out the Nats changed Gioloto's motion this year, that now that the Sox have him, he'll revert to his greatness.....let's hope KLAW is wrong.