AFL Preview: Gonsalves and Gordon Highlight Twins Contingent

[Steve Lein]

The 2016 Arizona Fall League schedule gets going today with three games. Each week through the season, Steve Lein will provide an update on the seven Twins players participating. Today he begins by providing a preview.

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While the Minnesota Twins aren’t playing any October baseball for the sixth consecutive season, that doesn’t mean there isn’t baseball to pay attention to when it comes to your favorite team. The fall and winter seasons are full of other leagues, both well-known and obscure, where many of your favorite major league players or prospects might be playing. You just have to know where to look for them.

The most well-known of these leagues, is played during the months of October and November in the deserts of Arizona, and it is where you’ll likely see several future MLB superstars play before they ever make the debut in the show.

The Arizona Fall League is a short-season league where every team in Major League Baseball sends some of their top prospects. It is often used as a proving ground for players looking to take the final steps to their MLB dreams. Whether those players are elite talent looking to make a case for an early call-up the next season, or someone on the doorstep being evaluated for protection on the 40-man roster, these minor league games in October can determine a lot going into the offseason for their parent clubs.

Image courtesy of Seth Stohs (photos of Nick Gordon, Stephen Gonsalves)

Each MLB team sends seven players to the league, and the six rosters are made up of the players from five different organizations that are rotated each year. Prospects from the Twins this season will be playing with those from the Boston Red Sox, Kansas City Royals, Pittsburgh Pirates, and Texas Rangers for the Surprise Saguaros.

The Twins are represented in 2016 by position players Nick Gordon, Mitch Garver, and Tanner English; and pitchers Stephen Gonsalves, Mason Melotakis, Randy Rosario and John Curtiss.

It will be the second consecutive trip to the league for Mitch Garver, last year for the Scottsdale Scorpions. Taylor Rogers played on that same Scottsdale Scorpions team and made his MLB debut with the Twins in 2016.

While the Twins aren’t sending anybody who approaches the prospect status of one of their soon to be teammates in Arizona, Yoan Moncada from the Red Sox, two of their players bring plenty of performance (Gonsalves) and pedigree (Gordon) qualifications with them, and whom I’ll be watching the closest.

- Stephen Gonsalves was named to both Baseball America’s and MLB.com’s 2016 All-Star team as the top left-handed starting pitcher after he went a combined 13-5 in 24 starts between the Fort Myers Miracle and Chattanooga Lookouts. In case you forgot, he was also Twins Daily’s unanimous Pitcher of the Year.

With the Miracle he made eleven starts and was 5-4 with a 2.33 ERA. He struck out one per inning and maintained a WHIP below 1.00. After he pitched in the FSL All-Star game he was promoted to Chattanooga and was even better in traditional stat categories. In thirteen starts he was 8-1 with a 1.82 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. He struck out eighty-nine in 74.1 IP.

Outside of his second start with the Lookouts, Gonsalves did not allow more than two runs in any of his other twelve AA starts and struck out eight or more in seven of them.

On August 11^th he managed the first nine-inning complete game of his career, allowing just one unearned run on three hits and two walks, with eight strikeouts. Of note, is this was also the first time in Gonsalves’s career he had ever eclipsed more than seven innings in a start.

Innings may be one thing besides his immense talent that has brought the lefty to Arizona this fall. In 2015 he pitched a total of 134.1 innings with Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers, and increased that total to just 140.0 with the Miracle and Lookouts in 2016.

While on their own those totals are impressive in a minor league season, the type of pitcher the Twins hope Gonsalves can become is expected to eclipse two-hundred innings over the course of a season once he reaches the majors. An increasing innings limit is part of any prospect's development plan as he progresses up the organizational ladder, and adding five or six starts in Arizona will help bring that total in line with such a plan.

If he remains healthy and continues the success of 2016 out in the desert, starting 2017 in AAA is not out of the question and there should be no innings limit in place if and when he makes the major league team’s roster.

- Nick Gordon started the 2016 season as one of the hottest hitting prospects in the system, showing the benefits of the added muscle he worked to put on in the offseason. In April he hit .333/.363/.483 with nine extra-base-hits among his nineteen total hits on the month. He cooled off in May but came back to hit .286 and .330 in June and July. He played in the FSL All-Start game alongside Gonsalves, and finished the year with a .721 OPS with twenty-three doubles, six triples, and three home runs.

He continues to get solid reviews on his defense, showing top level instincts if not elite range and a strong arm from the deep in the hole. If you feel you can discern anything from fielding percentage, his .960 career mark at shortstop is better (if not by much) than Engelb Vielma’s in the system. He doesn’t necessarily have the flash of Vielma on defense, but has the ability to remain at short and brings much more with the stick.

If history tells us anything, moving on to the Southern League from the FSL should see a bump in his overall batting line, and a competent showing against the top-level pitching of the AFL, will increase his odds for a mid-season bump from AA to AAA, and being one step away from joining his father and brother as a major leaguer.

- Mitch Garver heads to the AFL for the second consecutive season, and will be looking to have the same type of success to help propel him to some at-bats in the majors early in 2017. In the league last fall, he batted .317/.404/.512 with five doubles, one home run and nine RBIs in twelve games.

Garver began the 2016 season in Chattanooga alongside his friendly competitor at catcher, Stuart Turner. While Turner was behind the dish more often when they were both on the roster, Garver got plenty of time there and was also into worked into the lineup at designated hitter and first base because of his hitting. His .753 OPS was second on the team among ‘regulars,’ and his sixty-six RBIs led the roster despite his August promotion to AAA Rochester.

With the Red Wings, Garver saw action in twenty-two games through the end of the year, and started at catcher in thirteen of them. He hit .329/.381/.434 in his short time there, and .270/.342/.422 with thirty doubles and twelve home runs overall on the year.

Alongside his encouraging batting profile as a catcher, Garver also stood out defensively in 2016. While Turner has traditionally gotten more of the defensive praise at the position, failing to also recognize Garver for such skills is a disservice. In fact, Garver threw out runners at a higher clip than Turner on the year (48.1% to 39.6%), and has done so for his career in the minors.

With another solid showing in the AFL this fall, Garver can work his way into the catcher conversation for the major league team heading into 2017.

- Tanner English is not a name you may have heard too often in the Minor League Reports this past season, but that’s not because he had a bad year. Unfortunately for him, it was injuries that limited him to just forty-one games and 145 at-bats in 2016.

He started the year in Fort Myers, but went on the disabled list in the middle of April. While rehabbing in an extended spring training game before returning to the Miracle, he rolled his ankle and missed more time. He returned to the Florida State League on July 30^th, and hit .247/.359/.481 in August. With Rochester in need of an outfielder the final week of the season, it was he whom they summoned to play center field to end the season.

English’s trip to the AFL is just as much about getting him some extra at-bats as it is his chance to make an impression. While he doesn’t necessarily have any loud tools, he does profile as a leadoff type hitter with good speed and was named the Twins top defensive outfielder in 2015 while playing in Cedar Rapids. He’s a bit further down the outfield pecking order at this point, but a strong showing in Arizona could put him on a path to AAA in 2017, and you never know when the Twins may need a fourth-outfielder type for their bench.

- Mason Melotakis is a pitcher who always had intrigued me since the Twins selected him in the second round of the 2012 draft out of Northwestern State in Lousiana. This was the draft the Twins started shifting their focus to power arms, and Melotakis was a hard one to ignore with a mid-to-upper nineties fastball from the left side.

Unfortunately for him and his arm, that same stuff that made him intriguing as a high draft pick didn’t quite transfer to a starting role, and the 2014 season saw him back in the bullpen before Tommy John surgery struck the lefthander and he missed all of 2015.

Ready at the outset of the 2016 season, Melotakis was sent to Chattanooga and spent the entire season there while being monitored very closely. He did not once pitch on consecutive days, and never pitched more than one inning in any of his thirty-six appearances. Overall on the year Melotakis had a 2.96 ERA, with forty-two strikeouts and twelve walks in 33.1 innings pitched. He struck out ten in just 4.2 innings over the months of August and September to end the year and will look to continue that type of dominance in the AFL as he makes up some lost development time.

- Randy Rosario is another Twins pitching prospect who has endured a Tommy John surgery in his career, with his coming during the 2014 season. He returned in 2015 with the Cedar Rapids Kernels and showed that he still had a big fastball post-surgery.

He started with Fort Myers in 2016 and in April was just as good as the rest of the starters in the vaunted rotation, but was a bit up and down throughout the year. Still not even a year removed from returning to pitching, Rosario’s workload was limited by design as his season high for innings pitched to that point was just 61.2, but he did increase that number to 100.1 in 2016. At Fort Myers he was 6-6 with a 3.34 ERA, and got a late season promotion to Chattanooga to pitch out of their bullpen.

While it remains to be seen if Rosario will start for the Surprise roster, it will be a good opportunity to log some extra time against top-flight competition and make up some development ground as he was added to the 40-man roster last offseason despite being pegged for the Florida State League and his relatively recent surgery. Still just twenty-two years old despite six years in the system, a strong showing in the AFL could be a catapult into the Twins plans for 2017 and beyond for the left-hander.

- John Curtiss was drafted in the sixth round of the 2014 draft out of the University of Texas where he was a closer. He made starts in both the 2014 and 2015 seasons, but has settled in to the bullpen and thrived.

He made six appearances in the Midwest League to start the 2016 season, and when you see the stat lines for those games, you’ll understand why he was bumped up to the Florida State League so early: 1.0 IP, 3 K’s; 1.0 IP, K; 2.0 IP, 4 K’s; 2.0 IP, 5 K’s; 1.0 IP, 3 K’s, 1.0 IP, 2 H’s, 1 K.

If you failed to read through that sequence, it will show he allowed just two hits and struck out seventeen in eight innings.

He had a bit of a rough start in Fort Myers, but settled in when the calendar turned to July and was locking down the seventh and eighth innings for the Miracle. After the FSL All-Star game, Curtiss made twenty-four appearances and struck out 42 in 32 innings with a 1.69 ERA.

His name may not be as well-known as several other bullpen arms in the Twins system, but Curtiss has worked himself into those conversations with his performance against both right and left-handed hitters in his career. Of note as a right-handed pitcher, was his .217 BAA and 34.6% strikeout rate against lefties in 2016. Curtiss will look to continue that success against his best competition yet in the AFL, and make a further impression on Twins coaches heading into 2017.

- For each of these players, it's all about continuing their success of 2016 and making a further impression on Twins coaches. That's what I'll be watching for, what about you?

Good luck to all of the players in the AFL for the Twins this season, and I’m looking forward to following along with everyone at Twins Daily!

Please feel free to ask any questions about the AFL and discuss this week’s performances!

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[gunnarthor]

Well good luck to all of them

[Shane Wahl]

Fantastic job, here! Excellent detail on these players.

 

Chatty's 2017 OF of English-Granite-Corcino will be something to watch in the field.

Edited October 11, 2016 by Shane Wahl

[Monkeypaws]

Like the approach they are taking with English. I would like to see 4th outfielders of his or Granite's ilk - speed, good defense, not hapless with a bat, can come in as a sub both for defense and baserunning. Grooming them from within seems so much better than going out back to the scrapyard for Mastro, Robinson, or Schaeffer. Grossman is not a good enough fielder to be an ideal 4th outfielder.

[Loosey]

Thanks for this.  The Twins future bullpen looks like it could be an asset rather than a detriment if a just a few of these guys pan out.  They don't need to be Andrew Miller, but reliable middle inning relievers are would be fantastic compared to what is currently going on in Minnesota.  

 

Good Luck to all these guys.

[DocBauer]

Been a big follower of Gonsalves and Melotakis since they were drafted. Not a big surprise since they are pitchers, and obviously both LH. I would not be surprised to see both with the Twins at some point.

 

I've also felt for a while now that Garver might turn out to be a nice catching option, a solid all around player. After the season he's had, I'm really looking to see if he can maintain his success in the AFL as a springboard to the 2017 season and, hopefully, time with the Twins.

[bird]

Great start to the AFL for Gordon and Garver, and not bad for Melotakis and English.

[Seth Stohs]

https://twitter.com/SethTweets/status/785969532829446144 

 

[Thrylos]

 

Great start to the AFL for Gordon and Garver, and not bad for Melotakis and English.

 

Agreed about the first 3, but English went 0 for 4 with 2 strikeouts.  

 

If that is "not bad", then what is "bad"?

[TRex]

I am not sure how many of the stadiums with have Pitch f/x, but the first two games have. It is great to be able to 'watch' the quality and location of the prospects pitches.

 

One thing that really stands out is how (relatively) poor their command is! For MLB games, you rarely see pitches miss the plate by 6 inches, but I bet 25% of the tracked pitches in the AFL are off by that much. Even more noticeable is how many times the hitters swing at them!

[bird]

 

Agreed about the first 3, but English went 0 for 4 with 2 strikeouts.  

 

If that is "not bad", then what is "bad"?

 

 

English laid out to make an incredible catch in CF.  You must have missed that?

[Thrylos]

 

English laid out to make an incredible catch in CF.  You must have missed that?

 

No I did not.  But he was horrid on the plate. Which makes it pretty bad;.